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Main Indicator: Retail Sales
Most Recent Release
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.3% | 0.1% | -0.5% | -0.1% | ||
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Advance Retail sales for Aug
Ex. Autos: -0.7%, forecast -0.2%, pr. 0.3% (Jul), 0.8% (Jun), 1.2% (May)
Retail sales fell a second straight month in August. Sales were down 0.3% for the month, coming in below expectations of a small increase. July's figure was revised modestly down to show a 0.5% fall in sales. One factor was a decline in gasoline prices which brought down spending on fuel (-2.5%). Also, a sluggish economy has consumers watching their spending and is sure to worry retailers in the months ahead. After plunging 4.3% last month, sales of automobiles and parts increased.9%, thanks to heavy discounting by retailers trying to clear inventory. Taking auto's out of the equation, sales were down an even larger 0.7%, showing weakness in other sectors of the retail market. |
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Table of Past Data
| 12/13 | 1/15 | 2/13 | 3/13 | 4/14 | 5/13 | 6/12 | 7/15 | 8/13 | 9/12 | ||
| Actual | 1.2% | -0.4% | 0.3% | -0.6% | 0.2% | -0.2% | 1.0% | 0.1% | -0.1% | -0.3% | |
| Forecast | 0.5% | 0.0% | -0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | -0.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | |
| Previous | 0.2% | 1.0% | -0.4% | 0.4% | -0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | -0.5% | |
| Revised From | N/A | 1.2% | N/A | 0.3% | -0.6% | N/A | -0.2% | 1.0% | 0.1% | -0.1% | |
Secondary Indicator: Retail Sales excl. Autos
Most Recent Release
|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.7% | -0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% |
Table of Past Data
| 12/13 | 1/15 | 2/13 | 3/13 | 4/14 | 5/13 | 6/12 | 7/15 | 8/13 | 9/12 | ||
| Actual | 1.8% | -0.4% | 0.3% | -0.2% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% | -0.7% | |
| Forecast | 0.7% | -0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.5% | -0.2% | |
| Previous | 0.2% | 1.7% | -0.3% | 0.5% | -0.1% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% | |
| Revised From | N/A | 1.8% | -0.4% | 0.3% | -0.2% | 0.1% | 0.5% | N/A | N/A | 0.4% | |
Past Releases
Retail Sales
|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.1% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | ||
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Advance Retail sales for July
Sales y/y: 2.6%, pr. 3.0% Retail sales declined as the labor market softens and consumers tighten their belts. The discrepancy between total retail sales and core retail sales suggest that the stimulus check worked to somewhat counter the downward pressure on consumption due to the weak labor market. Auto sales are suffering due to a change in global attitude toward energy use. An increase of demand for more energy efficient transportation should make the American auto industry wish its big three switched green earlier as it scrambles to replace gas guzzlers, but trail Japanese models in this development. From the release: The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for July, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $384.6 billion, a decrease of 0.1 percent (±0.5%)* from the previous month and 2.6 percent (±0.7%) above July 2007. Total sales for the May through July 2008 period were up 2.7 percent (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago. The May to June 2008 percent change was revised from +0.1 percent (±0.5%)* to +0.3 percent (±0.2%). |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.8% | N/A | ||
| See "Retail Sales" for detail | |||||
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.0% | ||
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Advance Retail sales for June
Retail Sales ex. Autos: 0.8%, forecast 1.0%, pr. 1.2%, 1.0% Advanced readings show lackluster demand in June, as retail sales barely grew at 0.1%. Despite a 4.6% surge in sales at the gasoline station, which can be attributed mostly to higher prices, retail sales weakened mainly in sales at the motor vehicle and parts dealers (-3.3%), and other motor vehicle dealers (-3.6%). Furnitures and home appliance stores also contracted in sales (-1.4%). Stimulus check spending may have softened the slowdown a bit in the recent month, such as May when retail sales were strong. However, there seems to be another wave of recession fear brewing as Bernanke and Paulson last week admitted to the prospect of an extended slowdown. The tame data today confirms that the economic woes are not fading away just yet. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.2% | N/A |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.4% | -0.2% | ||
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Advance Retail sales for May
Retail Sales ex. Autos: 1.2%, forecast 0.7%, pr. 1.0%
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.5% | ||
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See Retail Sales
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.2% | -0.2% | 0.2% | N/A | ||
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Advance Retail sales for April
Core Retail Sales: 0.5%, forecast 0.2%, pr. 0.4% r(0.1%) Retail Sales declined 0.2% meating expectations. Excluding auto sales, "core" retail sales were up 0.5%, higher than forecast. March's core sales were revised up to 0.4% compared to the original stated increase of 0.1%. Sales of automobiles and parts fell by 2.8%, the main drag on the headline figure. In March, auto sales were down 0.5%. Consumers still seem to be willing to go out and spend and compared to last month sales at gasoline stations were down 0.4% (they were up 1.6% in Mar). Sales of building materials and garden supplies increased 1.9%, 1.4% at electronics and appliance stores, and 0.5% at general merchandise stores. Even though auto sales are having a hard time, the surprise strength of core goods was a welcome sign for those watching consumer spending in the US during this rough environment (the 4th and 1st quarters had growth of 0.6%). |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.2% | 0.0% | -0.4% | -0.6% | ||
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Advance Retail sales for March
Core Retail Sales: 0.1%, forecast 0.1%, pr. -0.1% r(-0.2%) March saw retail sales increase 0.2% on the month, compared to February's upwardly revised -0.4%. The increase caught forecasts by surprise as growth was expected to be flat. However, the increase was mainly due to a rise in receipts at service stations. The figures are not adjusted for inflation, so price increases and not just an increase in volume play a role in the data. Last month gasoline prices were up 6.9% compared to February and so gas essentially accounted for most of the increase in the headline data. That means consumer spending is subdued and today's report does not reflect some hidden consumer strength. Consumers are facing a myriad of pressing issues, from falling housing prices, higher gas and food bills and a deteriorating job market. These conditions are hurting confidence, the University of Michigan sentiment registered a 26-year low on Friday, and will limit consumer spending going forward. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.1% | 0.1% | -0.1% | -0.2% |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.6% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | ||
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Advance Retail sales for February
Official Release from US Department of Commerce Economists were surprised by the 0.6% decline in retail sales in February, the fastest in more than 5 years. Declines were led by auto sales dropping 1.9% and sales at the pump down 1.0% despite oil prices surging. Consumers are scaling back on spending as the job market weakens. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.2% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.3% | -0.2% | -0.4% | N/A | ||
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Advance Retail sales for January
Retail Sales ex. Autos m/m: 0.3%, forecast 0.2%, pr. -0.3% (Dec - rev from -0.4%) Retail sales unexpectedly rose in January, posting a 0.3% monthly change. This compares to a decline of 0.4% for Dec. The release was welcome news for the US economy, helping alleviate some worries of a looming recession. Sales at gasoline stations were a big factor, rising 2% in Jan, after no change in Dec. Sales at car dealerships and parts stores rose 0.6%; they had declined 1.1% in December. Core Retail Sales, which excludes automobile sales, saw a 0.3% increase for the month, however taking automobiles and gasoline out of the picture, sales would have been unchanged. Clothing retailers saw an increase in sales of 1.4%, but sales at department-stores fell 1.1%. Overall, this number is positive for the Dollar as it beat forecasts of further weakening in this indicator. However, the next 12 months will prove troublesome for the US economy, and it will be important to continue monitoring consumer spending. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.3% | 0.2% | -0.3% | -0.4% |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.4% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 1.2% | ||
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Advance Retail sales for December. Official Release from US Department of Commerce Retail sales, adjusted for seasonal variations and holiday, but not for prices, saw a decrease of 0.4% from the previous month, but was 4.1% above December 2006. Sales of autos declined a second month, but items excluding autos dipped into negative territory compared to November's rise. The retail sales indicator now falls in line with other signs that the US economy is in a slowdown. For the 12 months of 2007, total retail and food sales were up 4.2% from 2006. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.4% | -0.1% | 1.7% | 1.8% |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | N/A | ||
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November. Official Release from US Census Bureau Consumers proved to be resilient in November. Even with higher fuel prices, and falling home values, retail sales data doubled forecasts estimates. The data is a welcome sign, and may prove that talk of a recession may be overblown. A healthy labor market has helped put more money into the pockets of shoppers and it showed in this month's data. The report also validates the Fed's move this week for only a .25% reduction. Retail sales excluding autos rose 1.8%, signaling that sales of automobiles fell during this month. It is still too early to tell how shoppers will behave for the whole of the holiday season, though it is expected to be the smallest in 5 years. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | N/A |