Retail sales is a signal of economic growth because it measures how much money is spent at the consumer level. Consumer consumption accounts for two-thirds of many developed economies.
From the Release (Stephen Robertson, Director General): "“An awful start to the year and in stark contrast to an upbeat December. This is the worst January sales growth in the 15 years we’ve been running the survey. It was a month of two halves with a focus on must-haves early on. The coldest January since 1987 boosted food sales at the start of the month, as shoppers stocked up. But food sales growth melted with the snow. The month as a whole was significantly weaker than December.
“Most non-food sectors had a poor start, though nearly all recovered towards the end of the month. Furniture and DIY were worst hit as customers put off buying non-essentials. The VAT change brought some sales forward to December, but customers are becoming cautious again in the face of economic and political uncertainty. Retailers will be hoping these results are mainly a snow induced blip, rather than an indication of further difficulties.”
From the Release: "UK retail sales values rose 4.2% on a like-for-like basis from December
2008, when sales had dropped 3.3%, due to turmoil in financial markets
hitting consumer confidence. On a total basis, sales rose 6.0% against
a 1.4% decline in December 2008."
Stephen Robertson, Director General of BRC, said: "These are stronger figures than we dared hope for. After a surprisingly muted November, this is the best total sales growth for a December since 2005 and goes well beyond just making up for the sales fall the sector suffered a year ago. The figures were certainly helped by the comparison with last December's terrible results but customers clearly felt more confident about spending than they have for some time. Sales growth was also helped by the VAT cut dropping out of the 12-month comparison, December being the first and only month where the 15 per cent rate is the same as a year earlier.”
UK retail sales disappointed forecasts as
they unexpectedly fell in November for the first time in six months.
It’s a sign that the slow pace that the country is taking to get out of
its recession is crimping consumer spending. The data can reduce hopes
of a strong economic recovery and is a sign that Christmas shopping may
be subdued. Sales were hit by poor performance from department stores,
which saw sales fall by 4.4%, the biggest decrease since records began
in 1988 while purchases of clothing and footwear fell by 1.8%. On the
year, sales are still 3.1% higher.
The UK job market is weak, following job cuts of around 600,000
since this recession began, with those below the age of 24 particularly
hard hit. The effects of the slump may continue to be felt for several
more quarters though employment data from November was
better-than-expected.
The Pound fell following the data, sliding below its support level
around 1.62 to a low near 1.6080. That was the lowest the pair has been
since October 15th.
UK retail sales rose 0.4% in October, a figure that was slightly below the 0.5% expected by economists, though September's figure was revised higher to show a 0.4% gain compared to originally reported flat sales. Today's report also showed a rise of the annual rate to 3.4% from an upwardly revised 2.9% increase in September. October's annual rate is a 17-month high. Sales of textiles, clothing and footwear rose 2.1% on the month and were 10.7% higher on an annual basis. Internet sales increased 1.7% on the month and 15.8% on the year, as people were doing their Christmas shopping early due to concerns that a postal strike during the month could delay deliveries.
The UK consumer may still be skittish in the wake of weak economic growth and an unsteady recovery, but two months of higher sales can be taken as a sign that they are willing to spend. The Pound was weaker overnight as the sales data did miss expectations and the government's fiscal position deteriorated further in October.
Frpm the Release: "UK retail sales values rose 3.8% on a like-for-like basis from October
2008, when sales had fallen 2.2%, due to turmoil in financial markets
hitting consumer confidence. On a total basis, sales rose 5.9% against
a 0.1% decline in October 2008.
Food sales growth slowed
further, largely reflecting lower food price inflation. Clothing and
footwear showed stronger growth than in September, but against a weak
October 2008. Homewares and furniture sales also showed good gains,
helped by some improvement in consumer confidence and the housing
market. But the gains were against even larger declines a year ago"
From the Release: "UK retail sales values rose 2.8% on a like-for-like basis from September 2008, when sales had fallen 1.5%, due to turmoil in financial markets hitting consumer confidence and very wet weather. In addition, Bank Holiday Sunday and Monday fell in the September trading period in 2009 but not in 2008. On a total basis, sales rose 4.9% against a 1.0% gain in September 2008.
Food sales growth slowed further, largely reflecting lower food price inflation. Clothing and footwear picked up and homewares and furniture sales also rose above last September’s very weak levels, helped by some improvement in consumer confidence and the housing market."
UK retail sales stalled in August, showing a flat reading, while July's increase was revised down to show an increase of 0.2%. Consumers are worried about unemployment increasing, which was confirmed in data yesterday as the unemployment rate hit a 14-year high. The unemployment rate may continue to rise as long as the economy grows below its potential. Shoppers cut back on clothing, and sales at non-food stores were down 0.6% on the month.
From the Release: UK retail sales values fell 0.1% on a like-for-like basis from August 2008, when sales had fallen, hit by very wet weather. On a total basis, sales rose 2.2% against a 1.4% gain in August 2008. This August, food sales continued to do better than non-food. Food sales growth edged up only slightly from July's low. Clothing and footwear weakened further. Homewares and furniture sales fell back below year-earlier levels after July's weather- and clearance-driven growth. Non-food non-store sales (internet, mail-order and phone sales) in August were 7.9% higher than a year ago, the weakest since May."
Retail sales improved again in July, from 1.4% annual rate to a 1.8% annual rate. This was underpinned by substantial growth in furniture and homewares. Food and clothing also grew. Despite these improvements, consumer confidence looks to be dragged by unemployment. Nevertheless recent retail sales numbers suggest that the worst may be behind the British economy.
BRC director general notes:
"Rising unemployment and job loss fears will continue to hold back the widespread return of consumer confidence for some time yet"
Retail sales in the UK climbed 1.2% in Jun, which was a much
higher figure than what economists had expected. The figure follows a
0.9% decline in May. UK consumers spent more on clothing and food. The
4.7% rise in sales at textiles, clothing and footwear stores was the
first increase in three months. Warm weather was also a contributing
factor to better sales. Though the UK economy seems to be past its
worst phase of its recession, people continue to lose their jobs which
can pressure confidence and consumer spending, so its important to see
how sales fare in the coming months.
Retail sales rose 1.4% in the year to June. Items such as clothing, which is affected by the weather did well in the hot sunny summer, compared to last June's cold and wet period. However, big-ticket items remain pressured.
Retail Sales have been improving for the past few months. But May's drop of 0.6% is the first in 3 months the figures declined. It is also 1.6% down compared to May 2008, though it should be noted that the May '08 figures were unusually high. This disappointing reversal in the retail sales trend sapped the confidence that the British economy is in a recovery.
From the Release: " UK retail sales values fell 0.8% on a like-for-like basis and rose only 0.8% on a total basis, from May 2008, when sales rose strongly in the sunny weather. Food sales slowed after a strong Easter boost in April. Clothing and footwear fell below last May’s strong sales while big-ticket homewares and furniture sales remained difficult. Non-food non-store sales (internet, mail-order and phone sales) in May were 7.6% higher than a year ago, thus following the month’s slowdown in store sales.
Stephen Robertson, Director General, British Retail Consortium, said:
"Sun and Bank Holidays don't a recovery make. Warm weather and days-off produced some good performances for seasonal clothing and outdoor living products such as gardening goods and summer food and drink. But this May was always going to be difficult because the comparison is with strong May sales last year which delivered some of 2008's best growth figures.
"The three-month average is up slightly overall but still well down on the rates regularly seen before the slowdown really hit retail a year ago. Negative results show spring has been extremely difficult for most non-food retailers. The turnaround in sales of big-ticket items such as furniture and large electricals, which would indicate real change in the mood of customers, still eludes us."
UK retail sales rose 0.9% in April, the second straight month of gains, and a figure that beat expectations. Also, March's sales were revised up to show a 1.1% increase compared to the originally reported 0.3%. The report adds evidence that the UK recession may be easing, as consumers spending starts a rebound. Still, the 2nd quarter is expected to show growth contracting though perhaps at a slower pace than the preliminary 1.9% decline seen in the 1st quarter. The data does incorporate some changes to how the statistics are calculated, as shoppers substitute cheaper goods for more expensive ones. Sales of clothing and food led the gains, and warm weather in April helped to get shoppers outdoors.
The release helped to stop a sharp slide in the Pound today after the S&P said that Britain may lose its top credit rating for the first time as the government's finances deteriorarte during the current economic slump.
