For July
Provided by: National Statistics Office

Retail Sales y/y: 2.1%, forecast 1.8%, pr. 2.2% (Jun), 8.1% (May), 4.2% (Apr)

UK retail sales surprised forecasts and increased in July, climbing 0.8%. On the year, sales registered a 2.1% increase, a slower pace than in June, but better than forecasts. The positive result may be short lived as the pressures facing consumer spending remain. The housing market continues to stall, and high inflation eats into consumer's purchasing power. The rest of the year should see further weaker growth in sales. Last month's -4.3% change was the biggest drop since 1986.  

From the Release: "Between July and June, total sales volume increased by 0.8 per cent. Sales volume in predominantly food stores rose by 0.3 per cent. Sales volume for predominantly non-food stores increased by 1.3 per cent. Sales volume for the non-store retailing and repair sector fell by 0.1 per cent. Sales in non-specialised stores fell by 2.6 per cent."

For July
Provided by: British Retail Consortium (BRC)
Official Release: Press Release

From the Release: "UK retail sales values fell 0.9% on a like-for-like basis, compared with July 2007, when they had risen only 1.2%, hit by very wet weather. Sales have now been lower than a year ago in four of the past five months, the worst since summer 2005.

Changeable weather hit sales in July. A few sunny days together with extended clearance events helped some but underlying trade remained tough, with widespread discounting.

Food and drink was the only sector to show significant growth but that was against a weak July 2007. Clothing and footwear fell further below the year-earlier level. Furniture and homewares remained well down on a year ago, despite continued discounts and promotions.

Consumer confidence has weakened still further to new record lows. With increasing demands on household budgets, shoppers are very price-conscious and reluctant to spend on big-ticket items. Even heavy discounting often failed to tempt customers to buy."

Retail Sales y/y: 2.2%, forecast: 4.4%, pr. 8.1% (May), 4.2% (Apr)

The sharp monthly decline in retail sales numbers for June was the biggest monthly drop since records began in 1986. This reversed all the gains last month which came as a surprising rebound from April and March's drops. Both food related sales and non-food sales dropped 3.6% and 4.5% respectively.

The Sterling was under major pressure after this release, taking away gains from last sessions surge that came from interest rate outlooks. 

For June
Provided by: British Retail Consortium (BRC)
May's Release: PDF
June's Release: PDF 

There wasn't much good news in today's BRC report on same store sales at the retail level. Sales slumped on a broad base, except for gains in the food and drink sector. From the release:

Clothing and footwear fell back sharply after May’s sun-driven boost. Furniture and homewares, both large and small, weakened further below year-earlier levels, despite continued discounts and promotions.

The report also highlighted a sliding consumer confidence as household budgets get tighter and shoppers increasingly "price-conscious". Retailers have been trying to support sales through discounts, and Stephen Robertson, Director General of BRC is calling the government to help out. "Surely Government should also be helping hard-pressed customers by not piling-on new tax burdens and resisting its instinct for costly new business regulation which ultimately pushes up prices." Unlike Bush's stimulus check, is hoping small businesses get a break.

Retail Sales y/y: 8.1%, forecast: 4.1%, pr. 4.2%

As a result of the warmest May ever, UK retail sales increased 3.5% as consumers purchased more food and clothing. The increase was the fastest pace since records began in 1986. The results caught economists completely off guard as the consensus had been for a small decline of 0.1%. The data implied that the UK economy may not be as weak as originally feared though this kind of jump in sales will most likely be temporary. The Pound responded by gaining on its rivals.

For May
Provided by: British Retail Consortium (BRC)
May's Release: PDF

Some warm sunny days this May compared with very wet weather last May boosted sales growth, but underlying trade remained tough, with widespread discounting. Food sales strengthened, with clothing seeing year-on-year growth after several months of declines. Furniture and larger homewares remained well down on a year ago, despite continued discounts and promotions. Consumer confidence has dropped sharply to new lows. Increasing demands on household budgets and the weakness of the housing market mean shoppers are very price-conscious and reluctant to spend on big-ticket items.

Retail Sales y/y: 4.2%, forecast: 4.2%, pr. 4.7% (rev from 4.6%)

Retail sales fell for a second straight month in the UK during April, but the decline was smaller than forecast at 0.2%. In annual terms sales cooled to a rate of 4.2% from 4.7% in March. That figure met expectations. Sales are being hampered by falling housing prices, high inflation and tougher access to credit. Recent data has shown consumers are quite pessimistic and may be reluctant to spend. Food sales fell by 1% on the month, and sales at household goods stores were down 1.4%.

The Pound was initially weaker following the release as it coincided with a weaker business investment report, but managed to recover and was stronger vs. the Dollar for the European session. The GBP/USD set an intraday high near 1.9580 during the NY morning trading session.

For April
Provided by: British Retail Consortium (BRC)
Official Release: PDF 

From the Release: "UK retail sales values fell 1.5% on a like-for-like basis, compared with April 2007, when sales were up 2.4%, helped by the warm sunny Easter weekend. The year-on-year declines in March and April were the worst since Spring 2005. Easter in March this year and some snow and rain this April against a hot sunny Easter last April, make comparisons difficult, but underlying trade remained tough. Food sales picked up after slowing in March but clothing and footwear fell further to their worst for at least 8 years. Furniture and larger homewares also remained down on a year ago, despite continued discounting and promotions. Consumer confidence has dropped sharply to new lows. With increasing demands on household budgets, shoppers are very price-conscious and reluctant to spend on big-ticket items. Even heavy discounting often failed to tempt customers to buy."

For March
Provided by: National Statistics Office

Retail Sales y/y: 4.6%, forecast 4.3%, pr. 6.3% (rev from 5.5%)

Retail sales took a turn into negative territory in March, declining 0.4%. It was the weakest pace in over a year. However, with sales above 1% the last 2 months, the decline reverses only a fraction of recent growth. The Pound fell following this release and the CBI Industrial Trends Orders, which showed manufacturing orders turning negative in April. The data implies that consumer spending is weakening. 

For March
Provided by: British Retail Consortium (BRC)

The BRC Retail Sales Monitor fell by 1.6%, the first time it has done so in 2 years, and the worst result in nearly 3 years. Expectations were for a boost this month as Easter came in March, but poor weather and weak consumer confidence combined to push down the results.

From the Release: 

"UK retail sales fell 1.6% on a like-for-like basis, compared with March 2007, when sales were up 3.9%. The decline was the worst since July 2005 when cold wet weather hit sales. The earlier Easter, together with extremely unseasonal weather and school holidays spread across several weeks, make comparisons difficult. The additional spending for Easter being in March this year but in April last year would normally be expected to result in a year-on-year increase in sales. Food sales slowed after two strong months and clothing and footwear were the worst for at least 8 years. Homewares and furniture fell further, despite continued discounting and promotions. Consumer confidence has fallen further to new lows. With increasing demands on household budgets, shoppers are very price-conscious and reluctant to spend on big-ticket items. Heavy discounting was still needed to tempt customers to buy."

For February
Provided by: National Statistics Office

Retail Sales y/y: 5.5%, forecast 3.6%, pr. 5.9%

Food sales were the main driver for the much better than expeted retail sales figure for February. Valentines day payed a role in supporting food sales, while houshold sales sagged. Food sales increased 1.6%, the largest monthly increase since June 2006. On the other hand, sales at household goods stores dropped 4.2%, the largest decline since February 2000.

Another factor that should limit the optimism from this seemingly postitive report is that sales in stores other than food stores, had to be stimluated by large discounts. This shows that although the Brits are suckers for love, they are tightening their belts in anticipation of some slower times in the economy. 

"After a blip at the start of the year as clearance sales temporarily got customers spending, belt tightening began in earnest in February when the Christmas and New Year credit card bills came home to roost. Although a welcome boost was provided by this year’s early Mothering Sunday, which helped food sales as well as health and beauty, customers remained cautious."

For January
Official Release from National Statistics Office

Retail Sales y/y: 5.6%, forecast 4.7%, pr. 2.8% (rev up from 2.0%).

"Total sales volume increased by 0.8 per cent between December and January. Sales volume for predominantly food stores increased by 0.7 per cent. Sales volume for predominantly non-food stores increased by 0.4 per cent. Sales volume for household goods stores increased by 4.3 per cent, the largest increase for this sector since August 2006 (5.3 per cent).

The sales volume in the three months November to January rose by 0.6 per cent compared with the previous three months. This follows 0.5 per cent growth in the three months to December. Total sales volume in the three months to January was 4.1 per cent higher than the same period a year ago. "

The National Statistics Office said there is steady underlying growth in retail sales. January's 0.8% increase, mitigates December's fall, which was revised up, and almost doubled forecasts by economists. Consumers took advantage of discounts, showing that consumer spending may is still high to pose pressures to inflation.

The Pound reacted well to the news, and the GBP/USD and GBP/CHF pairs rose around 150 pips following the release.

"Total sales volume decreased by 0.4 per cent between November and December. Sales volume for predominantly non-food stores decreased by 0.9 per cent. Sales volume for non-specialised stores (which includes department stores) decreased by 4.3 per cent, the largest decrease for this sector since February 1994 (-4.8 per cent). Sales volume for predominantly food stores increased by 0.1 per cent. "