For April (s.a.)
Provided by: National Statistics Office

Retail Sales y/y: 2.6%, forecast 2.4%, pr. 1.5% (Mar), 0.4% (Feb),
3.6% (Jan), 4.3% (Dec), 1.5% (Nov), 1.7%, (Oct), 1.8% (Sep), 3.3% (Aug),
2.1% (Jul), 2.2% (Jun), 8.1% (May)

UK retail sales rose 0.9% in April, the second straight month of gains, and a figure that beat expectations. Also, March's sales were revised up to show a 1.1% increase compared to the originally reported 0.3%. The report adds evidence that the UK recession may be easing, as consumers spending starts a rebound. Still, the 2nd quarter is expected to show growth contracting though perhaps at a slower pace than the preliminary 1.9% decline seen in the 1st quarter. The data does incorporate some changes to how the statistics are calculated, as shoppers substitute cheaper goods for more expensive ones. Sales of clothing and food led the gains, and warm weather in April helped to get shoppers outdoors.

The release helped to stop a sharp slide in the Pound today after the S&P said that Britain may lose its top credit rating for the first time as the government's finances deteriorarte during the current economic slump.

For April
Provided by: British Retail Consortium (BRC)
Official Release: HTML PDF

Retail sales rose 4.6% compared to a year ago, the best figure in three years. Its another piece of data adding to evidence that the UK recession may be moderating and that the measures taken by the BOE may be having a positive effect. The data needs to be taken with a grain of salt, as was mentioned in the release as Easter fell in April, and good weather boosted demand for household goods. 

From the Release (Stephen Robertson): "“The best sales growth for three years is good news but let's be cautious. A sunny Easter that fell in April this year is the key reason why overall sales are up compared with last year when Easter was in March and miserable. Sales of garden goods, outdoor leisure, clothing and food did well but other non-food sectors missed out on the seasonal boost and the total spent on food rose less than food inflation, indicating the amount sold dropped.

Following a tough winter, there's some pent up demand but there's no reason to think customers suddenly feel flush or eager to spend. With unemployment set to grow through the rest of the year, mounting jobs worries will hold back spending for some time. It would be great if the historically weak performance of the last twelve months was behind us but we shouldn't celebrate yet." 

For March (s.a.)
Provided by: National Statistics Office

Retail Sales y/y: 1.5%,  forecast 1.1%, pr. 0.4% (Feb), 3.6% (Jan),
4.3% (Dec), 1.5% (Nov), 1.7%, (Oct), 1.8% (Sep), 3.3% (Aug), 2.1% (Jul),
2.2% (Jun), 8.1% (May)

In an encouraging sign retail sales rose 0.3% on the month, beating forecasts that had called for a drop of the same magnitude. On the year sales were up 1.5%, also higher than expectations. Sales of food and clothes were up, while sales of household goods continued to slump. Good weather - with the driest March since 2003 - also helped to bring people out to go shopping.

For March
Provided by: British Retail Consortium (BRC)
Official Release: HTML PDF

From the Release: "UK retail sales values fell 1.2% on a like-for-like basis, and rose only 0.6% on a total basis, from March 2008, when sales were very weak, hit by extremely unseasonal weather. Easter falling in April this year but in March last year, together with warm sunny weeks this March but snow and rain last March, make comparisons difficult.

Food sales showed slightly stronger growth, partly inflation-driven. The decline in non-food sales was smaller than in February, as warmer weather benefited clothing, footwear and outdoor leisure. Homewares and furniture sales remained down on a year ago. Non-food non-store sales (internet, mail-order and phone sales) in March were 10.8% higher than a year ago. This continued the slowdown from the 30.0% gain in December." 

For February (s.a.)
Provided by: National Statistics Office

Retail Sales y/y: 0.4%, forecast 2.5%, pr. 3.6% (Jan), 4.3% (Dec),
1.5% (Nov), 1.7%, (Oct), 1.8% (Sep), 3.3% (Aug), 2.1% (Jul), 2.2% (Jun),
8.1% (May)

UK retail sales declined 1.9% in February, a sharp contraction in spending that heavily undershot forecasts. UK consumers reigned in spending as the UK economy continues to slide deeper into recession which has resulted in rising unemployment. At the same time consumer inflation rose more expected in February, adding further pressure on the UK consumer. The UK economy is expected to show a sharp contraction in the 1st quarter, similar to the 1.5% decline seen in the 4th quarter. The central bank has begun quantitative easing, a program to spend 150 billion pounds to buy UK government debt, corporate bonds and other assets with newly created money in order to ease credit conditions and increase lending and spending. 

For February
Provided by: British Retail Consortium (BRC)
Previous Release: HTML PDF

UK retail sales were down 1.8% on a like-for-like basis as sales fell back after January's clearance-driven improvement. Food sales growth slowed while non-food sales fell further below their year-earlier levels.

Stephen Robertson, Director General, British Retail Consortium, said:

"These are disappointing figures. It's now clear we were right to fear January's surprise year-on-year sales rise was just a discount-driven blip. The short burst of spending unleashed by January clearances has largely vanished, replaced by sales as weak as most of last year. Food sales are proving more resilient but every non-food sector, apart from children's clothes, saw like-for-like sales down on a year ago.

"Early February snow didn't help but customers and retailers' difficulties run deeper. Meanwhile Government stands by. We're not looking for handouts but, from business rates increases to a supermarket ombudsman, we don't need costly new handicaps." 

For January (s.a.)
Provided by: National Statistics Office

Retail Sales y/y: 3.6%, forecast 2.1%, pr. 4.3% r (Dec), 1.5% (Nov),
1.7%, (Oct), 1.8% (Sep), 3.3% (Aug), 2.1% (Jul), 2.2% (Jun), 8.1% (May)

UK retail sales rose 0.7% on the month in January, surprising forecasts on the upside. Expectations had been for a flat month. The gain was led by strong internet sales and aggressive discounting. On the year, sales rose 3.6%, following an upwardly revised 4.3% annual gain in December. Small businesses selling books and DVD's saw sales grown 6%, the best month since 19988, while sales in clothing and footwear were up 6.1% on the month, that sectors largest gain since May 2008. 

For January
Provided by: British Retail Consortium (BRC)
Official Release: HTML PDF

From the Release: "UK retail sales values rose 1.1% on a like-for-like basis, and 3.2% on a total basis, from January 2008. By both measures, this was the best performance since May, when sunny weather had boosted sales.

Food sales showed stronger growth. Non-food sales remained down on a year ago, though by less than in December. Sales were driven by widespread heavy discounting in clearance sales. Despite this clothing, footwear, homewares and health and beauty sales remained down on a year ago.

After a good start to January, sales growth then weakened as clearances ended. Shoppers took advantage of good deals, but many purchases were replacements and essentials rather than discretionary extras."

Helen Dickinson, Head of Retail, KPMG, said: "Following three months' year-on-year declines in the total value of retail sales and seven months of declines in like-for-like sales, this appears to be significantly better but the figures don’t mean consumer confidence has returned. The results are heavily skewed by food prices creeping back up again after the heavy promotional activity in December and by a reasonably strong performance in the first week of the month, caused by the continuation of a short-lived pick up in spending immediately after Christmas which ended by the second week. The divergence in the non-food sectors between those that are doing well and those that are not, continues to grow, meaning the outlook for many retailers, and the industry as a whole, remains challenging."

For December (s.a.)
Provided by: National Statistics Office

Retail Sales y/y: 4.0%, forecast 1.6%, pr. 1.5% (Nov), 1.7%, (Oct),
1.8% (Sep), 3.3% (Aug), 2.1% (Jul), 2.2% (Jun), 8.1% (May), 4.2% (Apr)

Retail sales in the UK surprised analysts and economists by increasing 1.6% for the month of December, suggesting a strong Christmas shopping season. However, there were some cautions with the data, as a cut in value added tax, aggressive discounting and very early Christmas sales cast doubt on the accuracy of the data. The annual rate, in adjusted terms was up 4%, but was only up 1.8% in unadjusted terms. Retailers will surely be surprised by the data , as they reported weak Christmas sales. With today's release of 4th quarter GDP showing a sharper than expected contraction in the 4th quarter, the Pound was pressured in today's trading.

For December
Provided by: British Retail Consortium (BRC)
Official Release: HTML PDF

From the Release: "UK retail sales values fell 3.3% on a like-for-like basis, and 1.4% on a total basis, from December 2007. By both measures, this was the worst December since the survey began 14 years ago and, barring Easter distortions, the worst performance of any month in that time.

Food and footwear were the only sectors to show sales up on a year ago – the latter reflecting further heavy discounting. Clothing, furniture and big-ticket homewares fell further below year-earlier levels."

For November
Provided by: National Statistics Office

Retail Sales y/y: 1.5%, forecast 1.0%, pr. 1.7% (rev. from 2.9%, Oct),
1.8% (Sep), 3.3% (Aug), 2.1% (Jul), 2.2% (Jun), 8.1% (May), 4.2% (Apr)

UK retail sales rose 0.3% in November, surprising forecasts on the upside. Its a rare good piece of data for the UK economy though October's sales were revised down to show a 0.3% decline. The numbers can be volatile, but sales saw stronger demand for food and discount stores. This should not be taken as a sign that the UK consumer is ready to start spending, confidence remains very low and the economic situation has deteriorated sharply the last several months.

For November
Provided by: British Retail Consortium (BRC)
Official Release: HTML PDF

From the Release: "UK retail sales values fell 2.6% on a like-for-like basis, from November 2007, when they had risen 1.2%. Total sales were lower than a year ago, as in October. This was the first time since the survey began in January 1995 that sales declined for two consecutive months.

Food and drink was the only sector to show sales up on a year ago. Despite extensive heavy discounting, clothing and footwear, furniture and big-ticket homewares fell further below year-earlier levels. Discounts and promotions continued but often failed to tempt customers unless they perceived value or really needed the product. Non-food non-store sales in November were 9.5% higher than a year ago. As with store sales, this was worse than in October, when sales were 16.6% up on a year ago."

For October
Provided by: National Statistics Office

Retail Sales y/y: 1.9%, forecast 1.5%, pr. 1.8% (Sep), 3.3% (Aug),
2.1% (Jul), 2.2% (Jun), 8.1% (May), 4.2% (Apr)

UK retail sales fell 0.1% in October, but that is a much smaller decline than the 0.9% drop expected by economists. The annual rate actually increased to 1.9% from 1.8% in September. Consumers bough more food, which offset lower spending on other goods. Still, a decline in retail sales means that retailers are facing tough times heading into the holiday season, and will be slashing prices in an attempt to lure customers into their stores. The better-than-expected headline result masks a very tough retail environment, and the Bank of England seems set to cut rates to 1% after slashing them 150 basis points to 3% last month. Household goods stores saw sales fall 5.4% from a year earlier, the most since 1992, while food sales rose 1%.

From the Release: "Between September and October, total sales volume decreased by 0.1 per cent. Sales volume in predominantly food stores rose by 1.0 per cent. Sales volume for predominantly non-food stores fell by 1.1 per cent, which includes decreases across all sectors except for other stores. Sales volume for the non-store retailing and repair sector rose by 0.9 per cent."

For October
Provided by: British Retail Consortium (BRC)
Official Release: Press Release
Official Release: PDF

The BRC measuring sales on a like-for-like basis posted a 2.2% decline on the year. This was the fifth straight month of declining sales, and was the biggest yearly drop since May 2005. Total sales, including new shops, fell 0.1% on the year. Consumer confidence is deteriorating despite general approval of government rescue plans and interest rate cuts. Much like last month, food and drinks which were on the defensive admist the slowdown and remained the only category that saw increases in sales. 

From the Release:

• "UK retail sales values fell 2.2% on a like-for-like basis, from October 2007, when they had risen 1.0%. Total sales were lower than a year ago for the first time since April 2005.
• As in previous months, food and drink was the only sector to show sales significantly up on a year ago. Clothing and footwear remained poor and often discount-driven, despite colder and much wetter weather than last October. Furniture and homewares fell further below year-earlier levels, despite further discounts and promotions.
• Discounts and promotions continued but often failed to tempt customers unless they perceived value or the purchases filled a need.
• Non-food non-store sales in October were 16.6% higher than year ago. Online sales fell on the days after the banking crisis hit, as consumers were anxious about their financial outlook."

For September
Provided by: National Statistics Office

Retail Sales y/y: 1.8%, forecast 2.2%, pr. 3.3% (Aug), 2.1% (Jul), 2.2% (Jun),
8.1% (May), 4.2% (Apr)

Retail sales were negative in the UK, falling 0.4% for the month of September. This result was better than forecasts, though it follows a rather strong August in which sales were up 1.2%. The annual pace of sales fell to 1.8%, lower than expectations and a marginal decrease form the 3.3% seen in August. That annual rate is the slowest since February 2006.

From the Release: "Between August and September, total sales volume decreased by 0.4 per cent. Sales volume in predominantly food stores rose by 0.3 per cent. Sales volume for predominantly non-food stores fell by 1.1 per cent, which includes decreases for textile, clothing and footwear stores and household good stores at 2.3 per cent and 2.0 per cent respectively. Sales volume for the non-store retailing and repair sector rose by 1.7 per cent."

For September
Provided by: British Retail Consortium (BRC)
Current Release: Press Release
Official Release: PDF

In the UK, September's same store retail sales were down 1.5% on the year after a 1.0% decline on the year in August. Total sales, which includes new shops, rose 1.0% on the year, after a 1.4% increase in August on the year. The BRC director attributes poor sales to the financial turmoil.

The BRC's figures have been a lot weaker than the retail sales figures from the Office of National Statistics. While volatility creates much divergence in data, it should be noted that the general trend in both cases are heading downwards.

From the Release: "“The financial turmoil has further undermined consumer confidence with like-for-like sales now down in six of the last of seven months. Furniture retailers suffered their worst performance for at least eight years. Food and drink sales grew with hard-pressed families focusing on value ranges. Impulse buying is disappearing as people consider purchases carefully and actively seek out promotions. If you’re after a bargain it’s great news as shops have responded with some of the most dramatic discounts and offers in recent times. “Retailers will be hoping customers are willing and able to spend for Christmas as an antidote to the current gloom.”

Helen Dickinson, Head of Retail, KPMG, said: “Despite the ongoing turmoil in global and the UK financial markets and the doom and gloom headlines, UK retail is not in freefall. The UK consumer is still spending and total retail sales were up in September on the same period a year ago. However, the trend continues in a downward direction - the growth in total sales is marginal at 1% and at like-for-like level there is a decline, which has been the case for six of the last seven months. Inflation is behind much of the growth in food, and this is the main driver of overall performance. The non-food sectors continue to suffer, with all apart from footwear showing like-for-like falls in the month. The key question now is not what has happened but what will be the impact of the current environment on sales over the crucial Christmas trading period - many will be holding their breath.”

For August
Provided by: National Statistics Office

Retail Sales y/y: 3.3%, forecast 1.6%, pr. 2.1% (Jul), 2.2% (Jun),
8.1% (May), 4.2% (Apr)

For August
Provided by: British Retail Consortium (BRC)
Official Release: Press Release

From the Release: "UK retail sales values fell 1.0% on a like-for-like basis, from August 2007, when they had risen 1.8%. Sales have now been lower than a year ago in five of the past six months, the worst since summer 2005.

Record-low consumer confidence and increasing demands on household budgets meant shoppers looked for value and planned spending carefully to take advantage of the widespread promotions and discounts. Housing market weakness continued to hit big-ticket homewares."