Indicator Digest - CMS Forex

Retail Sales

Retail sales is a signal of economic growth because it measures how much money is spent at the consumer level. Consumer consumption accounts for two-thirds of many developed economies.

Main Indicator: Retail Sales m/m

Most Recent Release

July
13th, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

-1.2%

0.1%

1.2%

1.0%

For May
Provided by: Statistics New Zealand
Official Release: Media Release

Retail sales figures for May were dragged into negative territory by weak motor vehicle sales.

The decrease was led by the motor vehicle retailing industry (which has a strong influence on the total sales movement due to its large size and volatility), down 14.8 percent ($102 million). However, core retail sales (which excludes the vehicle-related industries) rose 0.7 percent ($27 million).

14 of the 24 industries reported slower sales. There were increases in grocery stores and automotive fuel retailing, but the report suggests that New Zealand is slowly sliding into recessionary times. The central bank's anticipation of the slowing demand is that it will also curb inflation, which will give policy members room to cut rates from its record-high 8.25%.

Table of Past Data

	10/11	11/14	12/12	1/17	2/14	3/12	4/13	5/14	6/12	7/13

Actual	0.2%	1.0%	-0.7%	2.0%	0.1%	0.3%	-0.7%	-1.2%	1.0%	-1.2%
Forecast	0.4%	0.5%		0.9%	0.7%	0.3%		-0.4%	0.4%	0.1%
Previous	0.1%	0.2%	1.0%	-0.6%	2.0%	0.1%	0.3%	-0.6%	-1.2%	1.2%
Revised From	0.0%	N/A	N/A	-0.7%	N/A	N/A	N/A	-0.7%	N/A	1.0%

Secondary Indicator: Core Retail Sales

Most Recent Release

July
13th, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

0.7%

0.5%

-0.3%

-0.5%

Table of Past Data

	3/12	4/12	5/13	6/13	9/12	3/12	4/13	5/14	6/12	7/13

Actual	1.00%	2.30%	0.80%	-0.9%	-0.2%	0.3%	0.2%	-0.5%	-0.5%	0.7%
Forecast			1.90%	0.0%	0.3%	0.1%		-0.4%	0.2%	0.5%
Previous	0.20%	1.00%	2.30%	0.8%	-0.5%	0.3%	0.4%	0.1%	-0.5%	-0.3%
Revised From	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	0.3%	0.2%	N/A	-0.5%

Past Releases

Retail Sales m/m

June
12th, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

1.0%

0.4%

-1.2%

N/A

For April
Provided by: Statistics New Zealand
April's Release: Media Release

Retail Sales Ex Autos m/m:-0.5% forecast 0.2%, pr -0.5%

Overall retail sales grew faster than expected in April according to Statistics New Zealand. The 3-month trend has cooled off from consistently growing 0.5% since June 1998, to 0.1% between February 2008 and April 2008. Also stripping away the automotive sector, sales were down -0.5% for a second straight month.
From the release:

Seasonally adjusted total retail sales rose 1.0 percent ($52 million) in April 2008, Statistics New Zealand said today. This followed a 1.2 percent fall in March 2008. Core retail sales (which excludes the vehiclerelated industries) fell 0.5 percent ($19 million).

The RBNZ has already been considering a rate cut this year from its record high 8.25% OCR. The past two retail sales releases have shown that the economy is starting to cool off.

Core Retail Sales

June
12th, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

-0.5%

0.2%

-0.5%

N/A

See Retail Sales

Retail Sales m/m

May
14th, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

-1.2%

-0.4%

-0.6%

-0.7%

For March
Provided by: Statistics New Zealand
Official Release: Media Release

Retail Sales Ex Autos m/m: -0.5%, forecast -0.4%, pr 0.1%
Retail Sales Ex Inflation q/q (1st Q): -1.2%, forecast -0.2%, pr. 0.3%

Motor vehicle retailing was a major drag for March, much like in February. The industry's sales fell 5.3%($35 million) in March compared with February. There has been a downward trend since October last year, and is easing despite April's larger than expected declines. The decline in retail sales reflects a slowdown in the economy. A slump in the motor vehicle industry shows that consumers are avoiding big-ticket items first as they are cutting demand.

NZD/USD - Kiwi Falls Following Retail Sales Data: The New Zealand Dollar fell 60 pips to the US Dollar following the sales data, and set a low near 0.7540 overnight. The Kiwi's pared some of its overnight losses following the NY open, but hit fresh resistance at 0.76 and fell back down.

NZD/USD

Core Retail Sales

May
14th, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

-0.5%

-0.4%

0.1%

0.2%

For March
Provided by: Statistics New Zealand
Official Release: Media Release

Retail Sales m/m

April
13th, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

-0.7%

0.3%

N/A

For February
Provided by: Statistics New Zealand

Core Retail Sales m/m: 0.2%, pr. 0.4% r(0.3%)

New Zealand's retail sales fell in February, declining 0.7%. Consumers are feeling the effects of rising food costs and record-high interest rates. The combination has left consumers with less to spend on appliances and cars (vehicle sales fell 5.8% m/m). Gasoline has increased 22% since February 2006, and food is up 5.2% on an annual pace. Consumer confidence is sliding and home price growth is starting to slow, a condition seen in other economies around the world.

Core Retail Sales

April
13th, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

0.2%

0.4%

0.3%

Retail Sales m/m

March
12th, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

0.3%

0.1%

N/A

For January
Official Release for Statistics New Zealand

Grocery and supermarket stores marked the largest contributions to retail sales. However, with the food price index up 0.4%, this retail growth was inflation driven, rather than volume-driven. Also, the sales trend, on average up 0.5% a month, has been supported by the recent rise in fuel industry.

Core Retail Sales

March
12th, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

0.3%

0.1%

0.3%

N/A

Retail Sales m/m

February
14th, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

0.1%

0.7%

2.0%

N/A

For December.
Official Release for Statistics New Zealand

Retail Sales ex. Autos: 0.3%, forecast 0.3%, pr. 0.9%

Of the 24 retail industries, 13 had sales increases. The biggest increases cam from auto fueland department store retailing. The biggest decreases came from motor vehicle retailing, and cafe and retaurants.

For the December quarter, retail sales increased 1.9% compared to the September quarter. Positive contributions came from auto fuel, clothing and softgoods, motor vehicle, and supermarket and grocery store retailing. Higher than usual fuel prices drove automotive fuel retailing up 15.1% for the quarter.

Retail Sales m/m

January
17th, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

2.0%

0.9%

-0.6%

-0.7%

For November.
Official Release for Statistics New Zealanad

Retail Sales Ex. Autos m/m: 0.9% (Nov), pr. -1.1% (Sept).

14 of the 24 industries recorded sales. Sales were much more than expected because the automobile fuel retailing sales rose 9.0% to the highest level since records began.Motor vehicle retailing sales rose 4.3%. Stripping away these volatile components, core retail sales modestly rose 0.9%.

Retail Sales m/m

December
12th, 2007

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

-0.7%

1.0%

N/A

For October.

Retail Sales Ex. Autos m/m: pr. 0.5%.

Retail Sales m/m

November
14th, 2007

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

1.0%

0.5%

0.2%

N/A

For September.

Retail Sales Ex. Autos m/m: 0.5%, pr. 0.8%

Retail Sales Ex. Inflation q/q (3rd Q): 0.2%, forecast 0.2, pr. -0.6%

Retail Sales m/m

October
11th, 2007

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

0.2%

0.4%

0.1%

0.0%

For August.

Retail Sales ex. Autos: 0.8%, forecast 0.5%, pr. -0.1%

Core Retail Sales

September
12th, 2007

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

-0.2%

0.3%

-0.5%

N/A

Core retail sales fell again in July. 11 out of the 20 core retail industries reported lower sales in July than June.

Core Retail Sales

June
13th, 2007

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

-0.9%

0.0%

0.8%

N/A

Excluding the vehicle related industries,core retailing dropped 0.9% in April. Accommodation and appliance retailing were the two major contributor to this drop.

Core Retail Sales

May
13th, 2007

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

0.80%

1.90%

2.30%

N/A

Core Retail Sales

April
12th, 2007

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

2.30%

1.00%

N/A

Core Retail Sales

March
12th, 2007

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

1.00%

0.20%

N/A