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Indicator Digest

Retail Sales
Retail sales is a signal of economic growth because it measures how much money is spent at the consumer level. Consumer consumption accounts for two-thirds of many developed economies.

Main Indicator: Core Retail Sales

Most Recent Release

March
11th, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.3% 0.6% -2.0% -1.8%

Table of Past Data

4/135/146/117/129/1310/1211/111/202/113/11
Actual-0.1%0.5%-0.1%1.6%-0.5%1.2%0.0%0.8%-1.8%0.3%
Forecast-0.1%-0.1%0.4%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.4%0.4%0.3%0.6%
Previous0.3%-0.1%0.5%0.0%-0.6%-0.6%1.2%0.5%0.8%-2.0%
Revised FromN/AN/AN/A-0.1%-0.4%-0.5%N/AN/AN/A-1.8%

Secondary Indicator: Retail Sales m/m

Most Recent Release

March
11th, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.8% 0.3% -0.4% 0.0%

For January
Provided by: Statistics New Zealand
Official Release: HTML PDF

Ex. Autos m/m: 0.3%, pr. -1.8% (Dec), 0.8% (Nov)

From the Release: "Seasonally adjusted total retail sales rose 0.8 percent ($42 million) in January 2010, Statistics New Zealand said today. “The increase in sales was led by the vehicle-related industries, with a lesser rise in core retailing,” business statistics manager Louise Holmes-Oliver said. Leading the increase were automotive fuel retailing (up 2.8 percent or $15 million) and motor vehicle retailing (up 2.0 percent or $12 million).

Core retail sales (which exclude the four vehicle-related industries) rose 0.3 percent ($12 million), following a 2.0 percent fall in December 2009. “The increase in core retailing was led by recreational goods retailing and accommodation; these were the only two industries in core retailing with movements exceeding $5 million,” Mrs Holmes-Oliver added."

 

Table of Past Data

6/117/128/139/1310/1211/1112/81/202/113/11
Actual0.5%0.8%0.1%-0.5%1.1%0.2%0.0%0.8%0.0%0.8%
Forecast0.2%0.3%-0.3%0.6%0.6%0.4%0.6%0.7%0.3%
Previous-0.2%0.5%0.7%-0.1%-0.5%1.1%0.2%0.0%0.8%-0.4%
Revised From-0.4%N/A0.8%0.1%N/AN/AN/AN/AN/A0.0%

Past Releases

Core Retail Sales
February
11th, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-1.8% 0.3% 0.8% N/A
Retail Sales m/m
February
11th, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.0% 0.7% 0.8% N/A

For December
Provided by: Statistics New Zealand
Previous Release: HTML PDF

Ex. Autos m/m: -1.8%, forecast 0.3%, 0.8% (Nov)

Core Retail Sales
January
20th, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.8% 0.4% 0.5% N/A
Retail Sales m/m
January
20th, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.8% 0.6% 0.0% N/A
Retail Sales m/m
December
8th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.0% 0.2% N/A
Core Retail Sales
November
11th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.0% 0.4% 1.2% N/A
Retail Sales m/m
November
11th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.2% 0.4% 1.1% N/A

For September
Provided by: Statistics New Zealand
Previous Release: HTML PDF

Ex. Autos m/m: 0.0%, pr. 1.2% (Aug), -0.5% (Jul), -0.4% (Jun),
1.5% (May), -0.1% (Apr), 0.5% (Mar), -0.1% (Feb), 0.3% (Jan),
-0.6% (Dec), 0.1% (Nov), 0.8% (Oct), -0.5% (Sep)

Core Retail Sales
October
12th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
1.2% 0.5% -0.6% -0.5%
Retail Sales m/m
October
12th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
1.1% 0.6% -0.5% N/A

For August
Provided by: Statistics New Zealand
Official Release: HTML PDF

Ex. Autos m/m: 1.2%, pr. -0.5% (Jul), -0.4% (Jun), 1.5% (May),
-0.1% (Apr), 0.5% (Mar), -0.1% (Feb), 0.3% (Jan), -0.6% (Dec),
0.1% (Nov), 0.8% (Oct), -0.5% (Sep)

From the Release: "In August 2009, seasonally adjusted core retail sales were up 1.2 percent ($49 million), Statistics New Zealand said today. Total retail sales also rose, up 1.1 percent ($60 million), with two-thirds of all retail industries showing increases. These increases follow decreases in July, when core retail was down 0.6 percent and total retail down 0.5 percent.

The biggest movers in the core industries, which exclude the four vehicle-related industries, were clothing and softgoods retailing, up 6.5 percent ($14 million), and hardware retailing, up 7.2 percent ($9 million). Decreases were comparatively small, with the largest being $3 million in supermarket and grocery stores.

In the vehicle-related industries, three of the four showed an increase, led by automotive fuel retailing (up 1.9 percent or $10 million). The only industry to decrease was motor vehicle retailing (down 1.4 percent or $7 million)."

Core Retail Sales
September
13th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-0.5% 0.5% -0.6% -0.4%
Retail Sales m/m
September
13th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-0.5% 0.6% -0.1% 0.1%

For July
Provided by: Statistics New Zealand
Official Release: HTML PDF

Ex. Autos m/m: -0.%%, pr. -0.4% (Jun), 1.5% (May), -0.1% (Apr),
0.5% (Mar), -0.1% (Feb), 0.3% (Jan), -0.6% (Dec), 0.1% (Nov),
0.8% (Oct), -0.5% (Sep)

From the Release: "In July 2009, seasonally adjusted total retail sales were down 0.5 percent ($25 million), following flat sales in June 2009, Statistics New Zealand said today. In core retailing, which excludes the four vehicle-related industries, sales also fell 0.5 percent ($20 million).

The biggest changes were both in the motor vehicle-related industries; automotive fuel retailing fell 2.9 percent ($15 million) while motor vehicle retailing rose 2.1 percent ($11 million). These industries were the only two with movements exceeding $7 million; most industries moved up or down by less than $3 million."

 

Retail Sales m/m
August
13th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.1% -0.3% 0.7% 0.8%

For June
Provided by: Statistics New Zealand
Official Release: HTML PDF

Ex. Autos m/m: -0.4%, forecast -0.6%, pr. 1.5% R- (May), -0.1% (Apr),
0.5% (Mar), -0.1% (Feb), 0.3% (Jan), -0.6% (Dec), 0.1% (Nov),
0.8% (Oct), -0.5% (Sep)

From the Rlease: "In the June 2009 month, seasonally adjusted total retail sales were flat, rising just 0.1 percent ($6 million). Core retailing fell 0.4 percent ($15 million), but this was more than offset by rises in the four vehicle-related industries. The biggest fall in the June 2009 month was in clothing and softgoods (down 9.1 percent or $21 million) following a 12.7 percent increase in the previous month."

Core Retail Sales
July
12th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
1.6% 0.5% 0.0% -0.1%
For May
See details in "NZ Retail Sales m/m"
Retail Sales m/m
July
12th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.8% 0.3% 0.5% N/A

For May
Provided by: Statistics New Zealand
Current Release: PDF

Ex. Autos m/m:  pr. -0.1% (Apr), 0.5% (Mar), -0.1% (Feb),
0.3% (Jan), -0.6% (Dec), 0.1% (Nov), 0.8% (Oct), -0.5% (Sep)

New Zealand retail sales continues a positive trend rising for the two straight months, and the third rise in four months. The improvement came on the back of a 12.6% rise in clothing and softgoods, and a 2.2% rise in supermarket and grocery store sales. Automotive fuel retailing and motor vehicle retails, down 2.7% and 1.9% respectively, were the main negative contributions to May's retail numbers.

Some of the better sales numbers were attributed to the higher-than-average rainfall, and below average temperature, leading to high demand of warm clothes.  Also, the environment of low interest rates and tax cuts have been factors in helping New Zealand quicken their emergence from recession.

Core Retail Sales
June
11th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-0.1% 0.4% 0.5% N/A
Retail Sales m/m
June
11th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.5% 0.2% -0.2% -0.4%

For April
Provided by: Statistics New Zealand
Official Release: PDF

Ex. Autos m/m: -0.1%, forecast 0.4%, pr. 0.5% (Mar), -0.1% (Feb),
0.3% (Jan), -0.6% (Dec), 0.1% (Nov), 0.8% (Oct), -0.5% (Sep)

From the Release: "In April 2009, increases in the four vehicle-related industries (in total $31 million) and a 0.1 percent ($4 million) fall in core retailing resulted in a 0.5 percent ($27 million) rise in total retail sales. In dollars, the biggest changes were in motor vehicle retailing, up 3.5 percent or $18 million; other retailing, down 5.1 percent or $14 million; and department stores, up 4.0 percent or $12 million."

Core Retail Sales
May
14th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.5% -0.1% -0.1% N/A
Core Retail Sales
April
13th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-0.1% -0.1% 0.3% N/A