For July (s.a.)
Provided by: Federal Statistics Office (Destatis)
Official Release: Press Release

Retail Sales y/y: 0.0%, forecast: -2.2%, pr. -3.9% (Jun), 0.7% (May),
-0.2% (Apr), pr. -6.8% (Mar)

German retail sales, adjusted for inflation and seasonal swings, fell 1.5% for July, adding to a 1.4% slide in June. Consumer are feeling pressured by higher prices and a gloomy outlook for the economy. In reaction they are curtailing their spending. In July, oil prices rose to $147 a barrel and inflation in the Euro-zone and Germany reached 4%. Weaker spending may lead to another weak GDP report for the 3rd quarter.  

From the Release: "According to provisional results of the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), turnover in retail trade in Germany in July 2008 was in nominal terms 3.1% larger and in real terms equal to that in the corresponding month of the previous year. The number of days open for sale was 27 in July 2008 and 26 in July 2007.
 
When adjusted for calendar and seasonal variations (CENSUS-X-12-ARIMA), the June turnover was in nominal terms 1.3% and in real terms 1.5% smaller than that of the preceding month.
 
Compared with the corresponding period of the previous year, retail turnover was in the first seven months 2008 in nominal terms 2.2% larger and in real terms 0.5% smaller."

For June (s.a.)
Provided by: Federal Statistics Office (Destatis)
Official Release: Press Release

Retail Sales y/y: -3.9%, forecast: -0.7%, pr. 0.7% (May), -0.2% (Apr), pr. -6.8% (Mar)

Retail sales in Germany fell 1.4% in June, more than double the -0.5% expected by economists. May's figure was also revised down to show a 0.5% gain compared to the originally stated 1.3%. On the year sales were 3.9% lower. It's a poor report and shows yet again the slowdown that the largest economy in the Euro-zone is facing. Its a quick turnaround from the 1st quarter when the German economy continued to show strength despite a US-led global slowdown. Times gave changes as high inflation pressures consumer spending and high borrowing costs choke business spending.

Consumer and business confidence deteriorated the past month, and an interest rate hike by the ECB did not help matters. For the ECB, a slowdown in growth may work to calm inflation, which hit an annual rate of 4.1% for July preliminary data showed. Still, the recent slowdown wont make the ECB any friends among workers and companies, and though recent bias has been on the side of hawkish language against inflation ECB policymakers will be hard pressed to raise rates again this year. Traders will have a much clearer understanding of what the ECB wants to do following next week's interest rate decision and press conference.

For May (s.a.)
Provided by: Federal Statistics Office (Destatis)
Official Release: Press Release

Retail Sales y/y: 0.7%, forecast: -1.1%, pr. -0.2% (rec from -1.0%) (Apr), pr. -6.8% (Mar)

German retail sales rebounded after 2 months of declines increasing 1.3% on the month and 0.7% on the year. April's total was revised up significantly. The 1.3% monthly increase was about double expectations, but the outlook still is murky for the largest economy in the Euro-zone. Clothing sales made a notable 13.9% increase in sales, while food, beverages and tobacco sales declined 3.0%. The data suggests that consumers in Germany may have set aside fears of a further slowdown and high inflation and proceeded to spend in May, but that may be temporary. Inflation continues to run at a red hot pace, deteriorating consumer confidence and eating into the purchasing power of households. 

From the release: WIESBADEN – According to provisional results of the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), turnover in retail trade in Germany in May 2008 was in nominal terms 3.5% and in real terms 0.7% larger than that in the corresponding month of the previous year. The number of days open for sale was 24 in May 2008 and May 2007."

For April (s.a.)
Provided by: Federal Statistics Office (Destatis)
Official Release: Press Release

Retail Sales y/y: -1.0%, forecast: -2.0%, pr. -6.8% (rev. from -6.3%)

German retail sales declined 1.7%, seasonally adjusted, in April compared to March, and were 1.0% lower than April 2007. The monthly fall surprised forecasts on the downside and immediately pressured the Euro, especially since the March figure was revised down to show a 2.2% decline. The EUR/JPY for example fell 50 pips following the release.

The data means that consumers have been curtailing their spending in March and April as higher inflation erodes their purchasing power. The German economy had a surprisingly strong 1st quarter, but that momentum is now fading. Domestic demand, this report shows, has taken a considerable downturn, just as German companies are facing weaker export demand from other markets. The higher Euro and slowing conditions in the global economy are starting to show their effects. On Tuesday, German consumer confidence fell more than expected signaling a more pessimistic German consumer. Meanwhile, inflation continues to run high, a report yesterday showed. Prices rose 0.6% in May compared to April, so the ECB cannot move to lower rates in order to help spur growth. 

From the Release: "According to provisional results of the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), turnover in retail trade in Germany in April 2008 was in nominal terms 1.5% larger and in real terms 1.0% smaller than that in the corresponding month of the previous year. The number of days open for sale was 26 in April 2008 and 23 in April 2007.

When adjusted for calendar and seasonal variations (CENSUS-X-12-ARIMA), the April turnover was in nominal terms 1.3% and in real terms 1.7% smaller than that of the preceding month.

Compared with the corresponding period of the previous year, retail turnover was in the first four months 2008 in nominal terms 1.6% larger and in real terms 0.9% smaller than that in the first four months of 2007."

Retail Sales y/y: -6.3%, pr. -0.3% (Feb), 0.3% (Jan)

Retail sales in Germany undershot expectations and remained in negative territory at -0.1%. The annual change for March was -6.3%. This means that consumers are feeling less confident and less willing to spend as the effects from the global slowdown finally seep into the German economy. Inflation has cut into purchasing power and has made consumers more cautious about their spending. This comes despite a strong labor market and what had been healthy demand for German exports in the 1st quarter.

For February
Provided by: Federal Statistics Office (Destatis)
Official Release: Press Release

Retail Sales y/y: -0.3%, forecast -0.3%, pr. 0.3% (rev from 0.6%)

Retail sales in Germany missed forecasts, falling 1.6% for the February period. It was the biggest fall in almost a year.

From Bloomberg:

"German policy makers are relying on consumers to help fuel growth as a U.S.-led global economic slowdown threatens the country's exports. While consumer and business confidence all unexpectedly rose last month and falling unemployment is helping workers win higher wages, inflation running close to the fastest pace in 12 years is denting their spending power."

For January
Official Release from Federal Statistics Office (Destatis)

Retail Sales y/y: 0.6%, pr. -6.9%

German retail sales recovered in January, posting a 1.6% increase for the month. December figure was revised up from -1.0% to -0.2%. Sales compared to January of last year showed an increase, recovering back in positive territory.

For December
Official Release from Federal Statistics Office (Destatis)

Retail Sales y/y: -6.9%, forecast -4.2%, pr. -3.4% (Nov-r).