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Indicator Digest

Retail Sales
Retail sales is a signal of economic growth because it measures how much money is spent at the consumer level. Consumer consumption accounts for two-thirds of many developed economies.

Main Indicator: Retail Sales m/m

Most Recent Release

March
3rd, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-0.3% -0.3% 0.5% 0.1%

For January
Provided by: Eurostat
Official Release: PDF

Sales y/y: -1.3%, pr. -1.6% (Dec), -2.0% (Nov), -1.3% (Oct),
-2.8% (Sep), -2.3% (Aug), -1.8% (Jul), -2.4% (Jun), -3.3% (May),
-2.3% (Apr), -4.2% (Mar), -4.0% (Feb), -1.7% (Jan), -2.4% (Dec)

Table of Past Data

6/47/38/59/310/511/512/31/72/33/3
Actual0.2%-0.4%-0.2%-0.2%-0.2%0.7%0.0%-1.2%0.0%-0.3%
Forecast0.0%-0.1%0.3%0.3%-0.4%0.3%0.2%0.0%0.4%-0.3%
Previous-0.1%0.1%-0.5%0.0%-0.2%-0.1%-0.5%0.2%-0.5%0.5%
Revised From-0.6%0.2%-0.4%-0.2%N/A-0.2%-0.7%0.0%-1.2%0.1%

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Past Releases

February
3rd, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.0% 0.4% -0.5% -1.2%

For December
Provided by: Eurostat
Official Release: PDF

Sales y/y: -1.6%, forecast -2.4%, pr. -2.0% R+ (Nov), -1.3% (Oct),
-2.8% (Sep), -2.3% (Aug), -1.8% (Jul), -2.4% (Jun), -3.3% (May),
-2.3% (Apr), -4.2% (Mar), -4.0% (Feb), -1.7% (Jan), -2.4% (Dec)

Euro-zone retail sales were flat on the month in December, a figure that disappointed forecasts calling for a 0.4% rise. While November's sales were revised to show a smaller drop than originally reported (at -0.5% instead of -1.2%) today's data shows that consumer spending remains fragile. While consumer confidence has increased of late so has the unemployment rate which is currently at 10%. That's the highest rate since August 1998. While a high unemployment rate will pressure spending, there are some positive including rising consumer confidence, low inflation, and higher savings.

January
7th, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-1.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%

For November
Provided by: Eurostat
Official Release: PDF

Sales y/y: -4.0%, forecast -1.9%, pr. -1.3% R+ (Oct), -2.8% (Sep),
-2.3% (Aug), -1.8% (Jul), -2.4% (Jun), -3.3% (May), -2.3% (Apr),
-4.2% (Mar), -4.0% (Feb), -1.7% (Jan), -2.4% (Dec), -2.6% (Nov),
-2.1% (Oct), -1.6% (Sep), -1.5% (Aug)

Euro-zone retail sales for the month of November surprised forecasts sharply on the downside, sliding 1.2% compared to October. That matched record monthly drops seen in October 2008 and 2001. Expectations had sales either flat or increasing slightly so this news was quite disappointing and weighed on the Euro. The decline was led by record falls in non-food sales, which means the decline was broad-based. On the year sales were 4% weaker, a level last seen in February and March of last year which was the trough of the recession. 

Today's data shows that consumers are restraining their spending as they remain concerned about high unemployment which is at its highest level in 10 years. Still, consumer confidence for the month of December did increase in a seperate report released today by the European Commission, as did business confidence, so the prospects for December's figures may be brighter than what we saw in October. 

December
3rd, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.0% 0.2% -0.5% -0.7%

For October
Provided by: Eurostat
Official Release: PDF

Sales y/y: -1.9%, forecast -2.4%, pr. -2.8% R+ (Sep), -2.3% (Aug),
-1.8% (Jul), -2.4% (Jun), -3.3% (May), -2.3% (Apr), -4.2% (Mar),
-4.0% (Feb), -1.7% (Jan), -2.4% (Dec), -2.6% (Nov), -2.1% (Oct),
-1.6% (Sep), -1.5% (Aug)

November
5th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.7% 0.3% -0.1% -0.2%

For September
Provided by: Eurostat
Official Release: PDF

Sales y/y: -3.6%, pr. -2.3% R+ (Aug), -1.8% (Jul), -2.4% (Jun),
-3.3% (May), -2.3% (Apr), -4.2% (Mar), -4.0% (Feb), -1.7% (Jan),
-2.4% (Dec), -2.6% (Nov), -2.1% (Oct), -1.6% (Sep), -1.5% (Aug)

October
5th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-0.2% -0.4% -0.2% N/A

For August
Provided by: Eurostat
Official Release: PDF

Retail Sales y/y: -2.6%, pr. -1.8% (Jul), -2.4% (Jun), -3.3% (May),
-2.3% (Apr), -4.2% (Mar), -4.0% (Feb), -1.7% (Jan), -2.4% (Dec),
-2.6% (Nov), -2.1% (Oct), -1.6% (Sep), -1.5% (Aug), -1.8% (Jul)

Retail sales fell 0.2% in August, a figure that was better than expected, as a rebound in the food sector lent sales some support. On the year sales were down 2.6%, a deterioration compared to July. With two months in a row of negative sales in the 3rd quarter it suggests that consumer spending will not be a factor in helping to boost growth during the quarter. 

September
3rd, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-0.2% 0.3% 0.0% -0.2%

For July
Provided by: Eurostat
Official Release: PDF

Retail Sales y/y: -1.8%, pr. -3.3% (May), -2.3% (Apr), -4.2% (Mar),
-4.0% (Feb), -1.7% (Jan), -2.4% (Dec), -2.6% (Nov), -2.1% (Oct),
-1.6% (Sep), -1.5% (Aug), -1.8% (Jul), -3.2% (Jun), 0.2% (May)

Retail sales disappointed forecasts posting a negative reading for July. Sales were down 0.2% as warm weather and summer sales were unable to entice shoppers. Sales of food, drinks and tobacco went down 0.5%, while there was no chance in sales of other goods. Weak consumer spending will throw a wrench into recovery plans, though recovery may more likely begin with the manufacturing sector. Still, businesses and consumers are beginning to feel more confident, but that may not be translating into higher spending just yet.

August
5th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-0.2% 0.3% -0.5% -0.4%

For June
Provided by: Eurostat
Official Release: PDF

Retail Sales y/y: -2.4%, pr. -3.3% (May), -2.3% (apr), -4.2% (Mar),
-4.0% (Feb), -1.7% (Jan), -2.4% (Dec), -2.6% (Nov), -2.1% (Oct),
-1.6% (Sep), -1.5% (Aug), -1.8% (Jul), -3.2% (Jun), 0.2% (May)

July
3rd, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-0.4% -0.1% 0.1% 0.2%

For May
Provided by: Eurostat
Official Release: PDF

Retail Sales y/y: -3.3%, pr. -2.3% (apr), -4.2% (Mar), -4.0% (Feb),
-1.7% (Jan), -2.4% (Dec), -2.6% (Nov), -2.1% (Oct), -1.6% (Sep),
-1.5% (Aug), -1.8% (Jul), -3.2% (Jun), 0.2% (May)

June
4th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.2% 0.0% -0.1% -0.6%

For April
Provided by: Eurostat
Official Release: PDF

Retail Sales y/y: -2.3%, forecast -2.9%, pr. -4.2% (Mar), -4.0% (Feb),
-1.7% (Jan), -2.4% (Dec), -2.6% (Nov), -2.1% (Oct), -1.6% (Sep),
-1.5% (Aug), -1.8% (Jul), -3.2% (Jun), 0.2% (May)