Open a free practice account and experience the Forex market risk-free with exclusive access to VT Trader™ 2.0.
Simulated conditions may differ from real conditions, and traders should not necessarily expect the same results from live trading.
|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.2% | 0.0% | -0.1% | -0.6% | ||
|
For April
Retail Sales y/y: -2.3%, forecast -2.9%, pr. -4.2% (Mar), -4.0% (Feb),
|
|||||
| 9/3 | 10/3 | 11/5 | 12/3 | 1/9 | 2/4 | 3/13 | 4/6 | 5/6 | 6/4 | ||
| Actual | -0.4% | 0.3% | -0.2% | -0.8% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.1% | -0.6% | -0.6% | 0.2% | |
| Forecast | 0.0% | 0.1% | -0.4% | -0.4% | 0.1% | -0.2% | 0.2% | -0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| Previous | -0.9% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | -1.0% | 0.6% | -0.3% | 0.1% | -0.3% | -0.1% | |
| Revised From | -0.6% | N/A | N/A | -0.2% | -0.8% | N/A | 0.0% | N/A | -0.6% | -0.6% | |
|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.6% | 0.1% | -0.3% | -0.6% | ||
|
For March
Retail Sales y/y: -4.2%, forecast -2.6%, pr. -4.0% (Feb), -1.7% (Jan),
|
|||||
|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.6% | -0.3% | 0.1% | N/A | ||
|
For February
Retail Sales y/y: -4.0%, forecast -2.5%, pr. -1.7% R (Jan), -2.4% (Dec),
The Euro-zone saw its retail sales drop much more than expected in February. On the month, sales were down 0.6%, doubling forecasts, while the annual rate declined by 4%. That annual decline is the largest since records began in January 2000. Those figures underline the weakness in consumer spending, despite decreasing prices. Consumer confidence will remain pressured as unemployment, which reached a three-year high in February, continues to rise as a result of the recession. |
|||||
|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.1% | 0.2% | -0.3% | 0.0% | ||
|
For January
Retail Sales y/y: -2.2%, forecast -2.2%, pr. -2.4% (Dec), -2.6% (Nov),
Euro-zone retail sales rose 0.1% on the month in January, though the annual rate showed its eighth straight decline, the longest run of annual declines on record. The 2.2% decline in annual terms shows that the usual post-Christmas discounts did little to get shoppers to open their wallets. December's data was revised down. With rising unemployment, falling household wealth, and elevated uncertainty about how severe the current recession will be is outweighing any positive effect from falling consumer prices.Continued weak spending will force the ECB to consider lowering rates from their current record low of 1.5%. |
|||||
|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.0% | -0.2% | 0.6% | N/A | ||
|
For December
Retail Sales y/y: -1.6%, forecast -1.4%, pr. -2.6% (rev from -1.5%, Nov),
Euro-zone retail sales were flat on the month in December, which was slightly better than the forecast, though lower than November's 0.6% gain. On the year however, sales fell 1.6%, which undershot forecasts. The data comes in the wake of weaker than expected German retail sales so the picture for the Christmas shopping season for the Euro-zone was bleak despite huge discounts. Its the seventh straight month that the annual pace of sales have declined and shows that consumers lack confidence amid the Euro-zone recession and are unwilling to spend. Not only are economic conditions worse, but unemployment has begun to creep up, and households have to worry about losing their incomes. Therefore, a lot more are saving. |
|||||
|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.6% | 0.1% | -1.0% | -0.8% | ||
|
For November
Retail Sales y/y: -1.5%, forecast -1.6%, pr. -2.1% (Oct), -1.6% (Sep),
Euro-zone retail sales increased 0.6% on the month in November, a better than expected result with the annual rate down 1.5% compared to a decrease of 2.1% in October. The data is one of the few pieces of news that is positive from the recession hit economy. It signals that household demand recovered slightly in the middle of the 4th quarter. Consumer spending is an integral part of growth in the region, and a serious cutback in spending has been an underlying negative as consumers worry about their economic situation and save more and spend less. The 4th quarter and the first quarter of 2009 are expected to show the economy contracting sharply which has caused the ECB to go on a rate cutting campaign, which should continue next week. Consumers have one thing going for them, consumer prices have been coming down dramatically as oil prices ease and stores heavily discount their goods to attract new customers. But, with unemployment increasing in the region it remains to be seen if consumers will continue spending the way they did in November into December. |
|||||
|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.8% | -0.4% | 0.0% | -0.2% | ||
|
For October
Retail Sales y/y: -2.1%, forecast -1.4%, pr. -1.6% (Sep), -1.5% (Aug),
Retail sales volume in the Euro-zone fell 0.8% on the month in October, and 2.1% on the year. Retail sales has been pressured for over a year now. Initially inflation had a big part, as consumers scale back due to high prices. Now, the prospect of gloom and doom is making consumers cautious and spending even less. The latest figures were worse than economic forecasts in both monthly and annual terms, pushing the ECB to make aggressive cut rates since inflation concerns have faded. From the release: In October 2008, compared with September 2008, “food, drinks and tobacco” declined by 0.5% in the euro area but rose by 0.1% in the EU27. The non food sector decreased by 0.9% and 0.7% respectively. Among the Member States for which data are available, total retail trade rose in five, fell in eleven and remained unchanged in Bulgaria and Denmark. The highest increases were observed in Lithuania (+3.5%), Finland (+2.1%) and Slovakia (+1.2%), and the largest decreases in Spain (-2.3%), Latvia (-2.2%), Luxembourg and Romania (both -2.1%). |
|||||
|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.2% | -0.4% | 0.3% | N/A | ||
|
For September
Retail Sales y/y: -1.6%, forecast -2.2%, pr. -1.5% (rev from -1.8% - Aug),
Euro-zone retail sales fell 0.2% in September as consumer cut back spending in the face of uncertainty regarding the global financial turmoil which took place towards the end of the month. Sales were down 1.6% on the year, the 5th month of out 6 that the annual rate has been negative. On a bright note both the monthly and annual rates beat forecasts of steeper declines. The credit crisis only intensified in October, so we should expect another weak report next month as consumer confidence falls to 15-year lows. This bodes poorly for manufacturers as they are already feeling weaker demand from the US and other economies around the world. The services sector saw its PMI fall to 45.8 in October, a record low.
The ECB meets tomorrow, and are expected to cut rates by 50 basis points. |
|||||
|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | N/A | ||
|
For August
Retail Sales y/y: -1.8%, forecast -2.4%, pr. -1.8% (rev from -2.8% - Aug),
Retail sales in the Euro-zone climbed 0.3% on the month in August, beating expectations of a smaller increase, while July's data was revised up to show a 0.1% gain compared to the original 0.4% decline. On the year, sales are 1.8% lower, matching July's upwardly revised figure, and beating expectations. Looking at the annual pace of sales, the trend is troublesome and shows that consumers are cutting back on spending as their confidence remained low. Unemployment is up, and the manufacturing and services sectors are struggling. With financial institutions and other companies reeling as a result of the credit crunch as well, the likeliest outcome is that we will see the ECB cut rates in their next meeting, the first time Trichet will have done so since becoming ECB President almost five years ago. |
|||||
|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.4% | 0.0% | -0.9% | -0.6% | ||
|
For July
Retail Sales y/y: -2.8%, forecast -2.1%, pr. -3.2% r (Jun), 0.2% (May),
Retail sales in the Euro-zone for the July period disappointed forecasts. Sales fell 0.4% for the month, and June's figure was revised down to show a 0.9% fall. On the year, sales were down 2.8% and June's figure was revised down to a record fall of 3.2%. Sales of food, drinks and tobacco dropped 0.9% on the month, while sales of non-food products eased 0.1%. Consumers have responded swiftly to the deteriorating conditions (credit crunch and high oil and food prices) that have afflicted the Euro-zone economy in the 2nd quarter, and to start the 3rd. GDP growth in the 2nd quarter decreased 0.2%. The Euro fell to a new seven-month low against the Dollar, touching 1.4400. |
|||||