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Main Indicator: Retail Sales m/m
Most Recent Release
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.8% | -0.4% | 0.0% | -0.2% | ||
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For October
Retail Sales y/y: -2.1%, forecast -1.4%, pr. -1.6% (Sep), -1.5% (Aug),
Retail sales volume in the Euro-zone fell 0.8% on the month in October, and 2.1% on the year. Retail sales has been pressured for over a year now. Initially inflation had a big part, as consumers scale back due to high prices. Now, the prospect of gloom and doom is making consumers cautious and spending even less. The latest figures were worse than economic forecasts in both monthly and annual terms, pushing the ECB to make aggressive cut rates since inflation concerns have faded. From the release: In October 2008, compared with September 2008, “food, drinks and tobacco” declined by 0.5% in the euro area but rose by 0.1% in the EU27. The non food sector decreased by 0.9% and 0.7% respectively. Among the Member States for which data are available, total retail trade rose in five, fell in eleven and remained unchanged in Bulgaria and Denmark. The highest increases were observed in Lithuania (+3.5%), Finland (+2.1%) and Slovakia (+1.2%), and the largest decreases in Spain (-2.3%), Latvia (-2.2%), Luxembourg and Romania (both -2.1%). |
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Table of Past Data
| 3/5 | 4/3 | 5/7 | 6/4 | 7/3 | 8/5 | 9/3 | 10/3 | 11/5 | 12/3 | ||
| Actual | 0.4% | -0.5% | -0.4% | -0.6% | 1.2% | -0.6% | -0.4% | 0.3% | -0.2% | -0.8% | |
| Forecast | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | -0.6% | 0.0% | 0.1% | -0.4% | -0.4% | |
| Previous | -0.1% | 0.4% | -0.2% | -0.9% | -0.7% | 1.2% | -0.9% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | |
| Revised From | N/A | N/A | -0.5% | -0.4% | -0.6% | N/A | -0.6% | N/A | N/A | -0.2% | |
Past Releases
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.2% | -0.4% | 0.3% | N/A | ||
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For September
Retail Sales y/y: -1.6%, forecast -2.2%, pr. -1.5% (rev from -1.8% - Aug),
Euro-zone retail sales fell 0.2% in September as consumer cut back spending in the face of uncertainty regarding the global financial turmoil which took place towards the end of the month. Sales were down 1.6% on the year, the 5th month of out 6 that the annual rate has been negative. On a bright note both the monthly and annual rates beat forecasts of steeper declines. The credit crisis only intensified in October, so we should expect another weak report next month as consumer confidence falls to 15-year lows. This bodes poorly for manufacturers as they are already feeling weaker demand from the US and other economies around the world. The services sector saw its PMI fall to 45.8 in October, a record low.
The ECB meets tomorrow, and are expected to cut rates by 50 basis points. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | N/A | ||
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For August
Retail Sales y/y: -1.8%, forecast -2.4%, pr. -1.8% (rev from -2.8% - Aug),
Retail sales in the Euro-zone climbed 0.3% on the month in August, beating expectations of a smaller increase, while July's data was revised up to show a 0.1% gain compared to the original 0.4% decline. On the year, sales are 1.8% lower, matching July's upwardly revised figure, and beating expectations. Looking at the annual pace of sales, the trend is troublesome and shows that consumers are cutting back on spending as their confidence remained low. Unemployment is up, and the manufacturing and services sectors are struggling. With financial institutions and other companies reeling as a result of the credit crunch as well, the likeliest outcome is that we will see the ECB cut rates in their next meeting, the first time Trichet will have done so since becoming ECB President almost five years ago. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.4% | 0.0% | -0.9% | -0.6% | ||
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For July
Retail Sales y/y: -2.8%, forecast -2.1%, pr. -3.2% r (Jun), 0.2% (May),
Retail sales in the Euro-zone for the July period disappointed forecasts. Sales fell 0.4% for the month, and June's figure was revised down to show a 0.9% fall. On the year, sales were down 2.8% and June's figure was revised down to a record fall of 3.2%. Sales of food, drinks and tobacco dropped 0.9% on the month, while sales of non-food products eased 0.1%. Consumers have responded swiftly to the deteriorating conditions (credit crunch and high oil and food prices) that have afflicted the Euro-zone economy in the 2nd quarter, and to start the 3rd. GDP growth in the 2nd quarter decreased 0.2%. The Euro fell to a new seven-month low against the Dollar, touching 1.4400. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.6% | -0.6% | 1.2% | N/A | ||
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For June
Retail Sales y/y: -3.1%, forecast -1.3%, pr. 0.2% (May), -2.9% (Apr) Retail sales in the Euro-zone for the month of June were down 0.6% on the month and 3.1% on the year. The fall in the pace of sales compared to a year ago was the worst in 13 years. Surging prices for energy and food are cutting into discretionary spending, limiting consumer spending. GDP growth may grind to a halt in the 3rd quarter if the economy falls into a deeper slowdown, and it may be up to the ECB to cut rates next year to help growth. At this point, policy makers want to see a reduction in consumer inflation before they sound dovish on interest rates. EUR/JPY - Euro Weakens vs Yen, Despite Strong Stocks: The Euro-Yen pair, similar to the Aussie pair earlier, saw a steep decline. From its open there was a 180 pip swing in the Yen's favor as there was an exit from carry trade. The pair now sits near its level from Friday. The fall comes despite stocks in Europe being in the green, up on falling oil prices.
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 1.2% | 0.4% | -0.7% | -0.6% | ||
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For May
Retail Sales y/y: 0.2%, forecast -0.7%, pr. -2.9% (Apr), -2.3% (Mar) Retail sales in the Euro-zone rose 1.2%, about three times higher than what was expected, rebounding from April's drop. The annual pace recovered as well, climbing to show a positive 0.2% change compared to April's record low -3%. Despite the better reading, its results may be temporary as consumers are feeling the weight of inflation and companies are facing tougher times in a slowing global economy. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.6% | 0.2% | -0.9% | -0.4% | ||
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For April
Retail Sales y/y: -2.9%, forecast -0.8%, pr. -2.3% (rev. from -1.6%) Retail sales in the Euro-zone saw a sharp drop in April, mirroring earlier data from Germany last week. Sales were down 0.6% on the month, and fell 2.9% compared to the same time last year. The annual rate was expected to decline only 0.8%. The 2.9% drop is the largest since records began in 1995. Consumers, faced with higher prices scaled back their purchases of food and other goods. Consumers are worried about the economic picture, as high inflation and high interest and weakening prospects for the global economy means the Euro-zone may be facing some tough times ahead. Lower spending may put the brakes on inflation, which would give the ECB room to lower rates in order to bolster growth, but until that plays out in the data, its unlikely the Governing Council will act.
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.4% | 0.1% | -0.2% | -0.5% | ||
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For March
Retail Sales y/y: -1.6%, forecast -0.6%, pr. 1.0% (rev from -0.2% - Feb) European retail sales declined 0.4% from the prior month and were down 1.6% compared to March of last year. That is the poorest annual reading since this series began being recorded in 1995. Consumers curbed their spending as high prices for food and fuel ate into their purchasing power. The data will be jolt to the ECB which has focused on combating inflation while insisting that economic growth was still strong. If consumer spending continues to show results like these it will be hard pressed to ignore calls of moving on interest rates. The Euro weakened vs the Dollar overnight, with its losses accelerating following the release. From the Release:
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.5% | 0.2% | 0.4% | N/A | ||
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For February
Retail Sales y/y: -0.2%, forecast 0.0%, pr: -0.1% Pre-Release: The rate of retial sales growth is expected to cool in February, after increasing in January. In the last three months of 2007, sales were -0.7% (Oct), -0.5% (Nov), and -0.1 (Dec). Post-Release: Retial Sales growth declined in February, undershooting forecasts of a 0.2% rise. The 0.5% decline was led by a slump in Germany. As prices for food, oil and power increase, pushing inflation to 16-year high levels, consumers are becoming more reluctant to spend. This is despite a strong labor market. Sales in Germany were down 1.6%. Euro Down on Retail Sales, Recovers at NY Open: The EUR/USD traded lower overnight following this release, and the Euro-zone Services PMI. The pair fell below to 1.5510 where it found support and bounced back following a very weak US jobless cliams report.
The Euro, fell vs the Yen as well, falling around 150 pips from its overnight high at 161.04.
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.4% | 0.3% | -0.1% | N/A | ||
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For January
Retail Sales y/y: -0.1% forecast 0.1%, pr. 2.0%
Year on year however, sales showed a decline of 0.1%. Because the economic backdrop is very uncertain, January's gains should be taken with a grain of salt. |
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