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Indicator Digest

Retail Sales
Retail sales is a signal of economic growth because it measures how much money is spent at the consumer level. Consumer consumption accounts for two-thirds of many developed economies.

Main Indicator: Retail Sales m/m

Most Recent Release

February
19th, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.4% 0.6% -0.5% -0.3%

Monthly Rate for December
Provided by: Statistics Canada
Official Release: Press Release

Sales ex. Autos: 0.4%, pr. 0.0% (Nov), 0.2% (Oct), 1.0% (Sep),
0.5% (Aug), -0.8% (Jul), 1.0% (Jun), 0.6% (May), -0.5% (Apr),
-0.2% (Mar), 0.6% (Feb), 1.3% (Jan), -3.2% (Dec), -2.3% (Nov)

From the Release: "Retail sales in current dollars rose 0.4% in December to $35.3 billion, mostly offsetting the decline in November. Sales in volume terms increased 0.6% in December. Retail sales volumes have been following an upward trend since the beginning of 2009."

Next Release Date: March 19th 2010, 8:30 EST

Table of Past Data

5/226/197/228/249/2210/2211/2312/211/222/19
Actual0.3%-0.8%1.2%1.0%-0.6%0.8%1.0%0.8%-0.3%0.4%
Forecast0.5%-0.2%0.5%0.0%0.5%0.4%0.6%0.8%0.2%0.6%
Previous0.2%0.3%-0.8%1.1%1.0%-0.5%1.0%1.1%0.8%-0.5%
Revised FromN/AN/AN/A1.2%N/A-0.6%0.8%1.0%N/A-0.3%

Secondary Indicator: Core Retail Sales

Most Recent Release

February
19th, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.4% 0.4% 0.0% N/A
Next Release Date: March 19th 2010, 8:30 EST

Table of Past Data

5/226/197/228/249/2210/2211/2312/211/222/19
Actual-0.2%-0.5%0.7%1.0%-0.8%0.5%1.1%0.2%0.0%0.4%
Forecast-0.2%-0.1%0.3%0.2%0.0%0.5%0.4%0.2%0.2%0.4%
Previous0.5%-0.2%-0.5%0.6%1.0%-0.8%0.7%1.0%0.2%0.0%
Revised From0.6%N/AN/A0.7%N/AN/A0.5%N/AN/AN/A

Past Releases

Retail Sales m/m
January
22nd, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-0.3% 0.2% 0.8% N/A

Monthly Rate for November
Provided by: Statistics Canada
Official Release: Press Release

Sales ex. Autos: 0.0%, pr. 0.2% (Nov), 1.0% (Oct), 0.5% (Sep),
0.5% (Aug), -0.8% (Jul), 1.0% (Jun), 0.6% (May), -0.5% (Apr),
-0.2% (Mar), 0.6% (Feb), 1.3% (Jan), -3.2% (Dec), -2.3% (Nov),
-1.1% (Oct), 0.8% (Sep)

From the Release: "Retail sales in current dollars declined 0.3% in November to $35.2 billion, after rising for three consecutive months. A contributing factor was lower winter clothing sales as a result of unseasonably warm weather throughout most of Canada. After removing the effects of price changes, particularly higher gasoline prices, retail sales in volume terms decreased 1.0% in November, the first decline since April 2009.

Sales declined in five of eight retail store sectors in November. A 3.6% decrease at clothing and accessories stores was the largest drop in this sector since September 2002. Sales at general merchandisers, which include department stores, fell 2.8% in November. Sales at furniture, home furnishings and electronics stores rose 1.1%, their strongest increase of 2009.

The automotive sector edged down 0.2% in November. Sales at new car dealers fell 2.2% after rising for six consecutive months. In contrast, gasoline stations (+2.4%) registered higher sales for a fourth consecutive month as prices at the pump increased. Sales at used and recreational motor vehicles and parts dealers (+1.1%) increased for a seventh consecutive month."

 

Core Retail Sales
January
22nd, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.0% 0.2% 0.2% N/A
Retail Sales m/m
December
21st, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.8% 0.8% 1.1% 1.0%

Monthly Rate for October
Provided by: Statistics Canada
Official Release: Press Release Table of Data

Sales ex. Autos: 0.2%, forecast 0.2%, pr. 1.0% (Oct), 0.5% (Sep),
0.5% (Aug), -0.8% (Jul), 1.0% (Jun), 0.6% (May), -0.5% (Apr),
-0.2% (Mar), 0.6% (Feb), 1.3% (Jan), -3.2% (Dec), -2.3% (Nov),
-1.1% (Oct), 0.8% (Sep)

From the Release: "Retail sales in current dollars rose 0.8% in October to $35.3 billion, the eighth gain in 10 months. In volume terms, retail sales increased 0.6% in October. The volume of retail sales has returned to a level last observed before the sharp declines in the last two months of 2008.

All components of the automotive sector (+3.0%) reported higher sales in October. Sales at new car dealers rose for the sixth consecutive month, gaining 3.6%. It was the first month where the value of sales at new car dealers was higher in 2009 than in 2008... Excluding the automotive sector, retail sales edged down 0.2% in October. Higher sales in five of the seven non-automotive sectors were more than offset by declines in the food and beverage (-1.2%) and pharmacies and personal care (-0.9%) sectors."

FX Times Article: Canadian Retail Sales Rise For 3rd Month, Loonie Gains

Core Retail Sales
December
21st, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.2% 0.2% 1.0% N/A
Retail Sales m/m
November
23rd, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
1.0% 0.6% 1.0% 0.8%

Monthly Rate for September
Provided by: Statistics Canada
Official Release: Press Release

Sales ex. Autos: 1.1%, pr. 0.5% (Sep), 0.5% (Aug), -0.8% (Jul),
1.0% (Jun), 0.6% (May), -0.5% (Apr), -0.2% (Mar), 0.6% (Feb),
1.3% (Jan), -3.2% (Dec), -2.3% (Nov), -1.1% (Oct), 0.8% (Sep)

From the Release: "Retail sales in current dollars rose 1.0% in September to $34.9 billion, the seventh increase in nine months. The increases were widespread with six of eight sectors showing gains. In volume terms, retail sales increased 1.2% in September. Retail sales have been rising since the beginning of 2009, following a sharp decline at the end of 2008. On a year-over-year basis, sales in September were 3.3% lower than in September 2008."

Core Retail Sales
November
23rd, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
1.1% 0.4% 0.7% 0.5%
Retail Sales m/m
October
22nd, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.8% 0.4% -0.5% -0.6%

Monthly Rate for August
Provided by: Statistics Canada
Official Release: Press Release

Sales ex. Autos: 0.5%, forecast 0.5%, pr. -0.8% (Jul), 1.0% (Jun),
0.6% (May), -0.5% (Apr), -0.2% (Mar), 0.6% (Feb), 1.3% (Jan),
-3.2% (Dec), -2.3% (Nov), -1.1% (Oct), 0.8% (Sep), -0.2% (Aug)

From the Release: "Retail sales in current dollars rose 0.8% in August to $34.5 billion, offsetting the decline in July. The bulk of the increase came from higher sales at gasoline stations and new car dealers. Excluding these retailers, sales were flat.

Retail sales have generally been rising since the beginning of 2009, following a sharp decline at the end of 2008. On a year-over-year basis, sales in August were 3.7% lower than in August 2008. In volume terms, retail sales increased 0.4% in August."

 

Core Retail Sales
October
22nd, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.5% 0.5% -0.8% N/A
Retail Sales m/m
September
22nd, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-0.6% 0.5% 1.0% N/A

Monthly Rate for July
Provided by: Statistics Canada
Official Release: Press Release

Sales ex Autos: -0.8%, pr. 1.0% (Jun), 0.6% R (May), -0.5% (Apr),
-0.2% (Mar), 0.6% (Feb), 1.3% (Jan), -3.2% (Dec), -2.3% (Nov),
-1.1% (Oct), 0.8% (Sep), -0.2% (Aug)

From the Release: "Retail sales in current dollars fell 0.6% to $34.2 billion in July. Most of the decline reflected lower prices at gasoline stations. In volume terms, retail sales edged down 0.1%. Retail sales have risen in five of the first seven months of 2009, following large drops at the end of 2008.

Sales were down in five of eight retail sectors in July. In the automotive sector, the 1.0% decline in sales was due to a 3.4% fall in sales at gasoline stations as prices at the pump dropped. This was the third time in four months where sales at gasoline stations have been the largest contributor to the change in overall retail sales, reflecting swings in prices."

Core Retail Sales
September
22nd, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-0.8% 0.0% 1.0% N/A
Retail Sales m/m
August
24th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
1.0% 0.0% 1.1% 1.2%

Monthly Rate for Jun
Provided by: Statistics Canada
Official Release: Press Release

Sales ex Autos: 1.0%, pr. 0.6% R (May), -0.5% (Apr), -0.2% (Mar),
0.6% (Feb), 1.3% (Jan), -3.2% (Dec), -2.3% (Nov), -1.1% (Oct),
0.8% (Sep), -0.2% (Aug)

From the Release: "Retail sales in current dollars rose in June, increasing 1.0% to $34.4 billion. Most of the gain was driven by higher prices, especially for gasoline, as retail sales in volume terms increased 0.4%. Retail sales have risen in five of the last six months, following large drops at the end of 2008."

Core Retail Sales
August
24th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
1.0% 0.2% 0.6% 0.7%
Retail Sales m/m
July
22nd, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
1.2% 0.5% -0.8% N/A

Monthly Rate for May
Provided by: Statistics Canada
Official Release: Press Release

Sales ex Autos: 0.7%, pr. -0.5% (Apr), -0.2% (Mar), 0.6% (Feb),
1.3% (Jan), -3.2% (Dec), -2.3% (Nov), -1.1% (Oct), 0.8% (Sep),
-0.2% (Aug)

From the Release: "Retail sales in current dollars increased 1.2% in May to $34.0 billion, more than offsetting a modest decline in April. Sales increased in seven of eight sectors, led by a 2.4% increase in the automotive sector. Retail sales have been generally rising since the beginning of 2009."

Core Retail Sales
July
22nd, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.7% 0.3% -0.5% N/A
Retail Sales m/m
June
19th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-0.8% -0.2% 0.3% N/A

Monthly Rate for April
Provided by: Statistics Canada
Official Release: Press Release

Sales ex Autos: -0.5%, pr. -0.2% (Mar), 0.6% (Feb), 1.3% (Jan),
-3.2% (Dec), -2.3% (Nov), -1.1% (Oct), 0.8% (Sep), -0.2% (Aug)

Core Retail Sales
June
19th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-0.5% -0.1% -0.2% N/A
Retail Sales m/m
May
22nd, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.3% 0.5% 0.2% N/A

Monthly Rate for March
Provided by: Statistics Canada
Official Release: Press Release

Sales ex Autos: -0.2%, forecast -0.2%, pr. 0.6% (Feb), 1.3% (Jan),
-3.2% (Dec), -2.3% (Nov), -1.1% (Oct), 0.8% (Sep), -0.2% (Aug)

From the Release: "Retail sales increased for the third consecutive month in March, rising 0.3% in current dollars to $33.9 billion. Higher sales at new car dealers was the main contributor to this increase. In volume terms, retail sales rose 0.7%.

The three consecutive months of gains in retail sales in current dollars have not completely offset the sharp declines reported in November and December. March's retail sales stood 6.3% lower than the peak reached in September 2008. Most of this decline reflects price changes. In volume terms, sales are down 2.6% from September 2008.

The main contributor to the rise in retail sales was a 3.6% increase in sales at new car dealers. This was lower than the 6.3% rise in the number of new motor vehicles sold reported by the New Motor Vehicle Sales Survey, as dealers offered higher rebates. The automotive sector as a whole increased by 0.5%, as the rise in sales at new car dealers was partially offset by lower sales at gasoline stations (-2.8%) and used and recreational motor vehicle and parts dealers (-2.6%)."

 

Core Retail Sales
May
22nd, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-0.2% -0.2% 0.5% 0.6%