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Main Indicator: Retail Sales
Most Recent Release
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.7% | 0.3% | 1.4% | 1.5% | ||
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Monthly Rate for February
Retail sales unexpectedly declined in February, declining 0.7%. The Canadian Dollar fell to the US Dollar following the release, reaching a new high for the week as the USD/CAD pair tested the 1.02 level in early NY trading.
From the Release: "After a strong start to the year, retailers reported their first sales decrease in five months in February. Retail sales fell 0.7% in February to an estimated $35.5 billion. None of the eight retail trade sectors showed higher sales in February, and two posted reductions of 1.0% or more. Despite the decline in February, and moderate sales in the middle of 2007, retail sales have generally been rising at a rapid clip since 2004. Following four months of strong increases, sales in the automotive sector decreased 1.3% in February. Excluding sales by dealers of new, used and recreational vehicles and auto parts, retail sales edged down 0.3% in February, the second decrease in seven months. Sales in the clothing and accessories stores sector fell 1.0% in February. Following a period of strong growth that began in 2006, sales for this sector have been rising at a much slower pace since the middle of 2007."
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Table of Past Data
| 6/21 | 7/24 | 8/21 | 9/21 | 10/23 | 11/21 | 12/21 | 1/22 | 2/22 | 4/23 | ||
| Actual | 0.4% | 2.8% | -0.9% | -0.8% | 0.7% | -0.2% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0.6% | -0.7% | |
| Forecast | 1.0% | 0.5% | -0.5% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | -0.3% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% | |
| Previous | 1.8% | 0.2% | 2.6% | -1.1% | -0.9% | 0.7% | -0.2% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.4% | |
| Revised From | 1.9% | 0.4% | 2.8% | -0.9% | -0.8% | N/A | N/A | 0.1% | 0.7% | 1.5% | |
Secondary Indicator: Retail Sales excl. Autos
Most Recent Release
|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.3% | 0.5% | 1.3% | N/A |
Table of Past Data
| 7/24 | 8/21 | 9/21 | 10/23 | 11/21 | 12/21 | 1/22 | 2/22 | 3/25 | 4/23 | ||
| Actual | +2.3% | -0.3% | -0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0 | 1.7% | -0.4% | 1.3% | -0.3% | |
| Forecast | +0.5% | -0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| Previous | -0.3% | 2.1% | -0.3% | -0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 2.0% | -0.3% | 1.3% | |
| Revised From | +0.2% | 2.3% | N/A | -0.3% | N/A | 0.1% | 0.0% | 1.7% | -0.4% | N/A | |
Past Releases
Retail Sales excl. Autos
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 1.3% | 0.5% | -0.3% | -0.4% |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.7% | ||
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Monthly Rate for December.
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.4% | 0.3% | 2.0% | 1.7% |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | ||
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Monthly rate for November. Official Release from Statistics Canada "Strong gasoline station sales and a recovery in general merchandise store sales helped push up retail sales by 0.7% in November to an estimated $34.8 billion. This marked the third increase in retail sales in four months. After showing signs of moderating in mid-2007, retail sales returned to the rapid growth rate that started in 2004."The data shows that the month saw the largest jump in gasoline station sales (+7.7%) since May 2004 (+10.4%). Higher prices coincided with the halt in the appreciation of the Canadian dollar. New car dealers saw a decline of 3.5%, primarily as a result of lower truck sales (-4.0%). Excluding the automotive sector, general merchandise stores rebounded from October's decline (-1.6%) to post a a 2.3% gain. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.1% | -0.3% | -0.2% | N/A | ||
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For October. Official Release from Statistics Canada Sales in Ontario represents 35% of Canadian sales. It's decline in October had a significant offsetting impact on the gains in 8 other provinces. Sales in the auto sector rose 0.7%, after a decline was observed in September. Truck sales contributed to the growth in auto sales. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.2% | 0.1% | 0.7% | N/A | ||
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For September. Statistics Canada Retail sales were negative in September, posting an estimated C$34.4 billion. A main factor was a decline in sales by new car dealers. It is the third negative retail sales figure out of the last 4 reports. The sales figure excluding autos was up 0.1%. Sales in the automotive sector declined 0.7%, with the bulk of that drop in new car dealers (-1.3%). The slight decrease in total sales in September, coupled with an offsetting gain and loss in July (-0.8%) and August (+0.7%), yielded a slight decline (-0.3%) in the third quarter of 2007. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | N/A |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.7% | 0.5% | -0.9% | -0.8% | ||
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For August. August retail sales rebounded into positive area after dropping in June and July. Sales from new car dealers (+3%) led the increase for a total sales of an estimated CA$34.5 billion. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.3% | 0.3% | -0.4% | -0.3% | ||
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For August Other than the rise in new car sales, the pharmacies and personal care sectors had the second most increases, gaining 1.8%. Furnitures and furnishings continue to grow in sales volume, and general merchandise stores sector recovered its losses from June and July. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.8% | 0.0% | -1.1% | -0.9% | ||
Retail sales in July in Canada, posted a second straight month of declines, undershooting economists’ expectations. Sales dropped 0.8% to a seasonally adjusted C$34.33 billion. Last month’s decline was revised lower to -1.1% fro -0.9%. This was especially surprising considering wholesale sales that came out on Thursday showed strong positive growth (+2.0% for June).
According to Statistics Canada, consumers sharply cut back spending on new cars, and spent less on food and liquor. Excluding autos, retail sales fell -0.3%.
The Canadian dollar fell 40 pips against the dollar, and 65 pips against the euro immediately after the release, but recovered half of that by 9AM. The Canadian dollar had been losing ground to both currencies after reaching session lows around 1 AM and 2:30 AM EST respectively.
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.3% | 0.4% | -0.3% | N/A |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.9% | -0.5% | 2.6% | 2.8% | ||
| Decline in automotive sector was the main reason total retail sales dropped in June. Sales in automotive sector dipped 2.7% in June, after a 3.7% increase in May. Large May gains kept the June quarterly retail sales buoyed at 3.0%, the largest 3-month gain in almost six years according to StatCan. | |||||
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.3% | -0.3% | 2.1% | 2.3% | ||
| General merchandise stores dropped 0.7%, clothing and accessories stores dropped 0.4%, an building and home supplies stores fell 0.3%. Positive contribution came from gains in food an beverage stores, who saw 0.7% increase, 0.4% in crease in miscellaneous retailers, and a 0.1% increase in pharmacies and personal care stores. This month's decline comes as a break from the shopping spree consumers have been on in the previous couple of months. | |||||
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 2.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.4% | ||
| Retail sales for May sky rocketed past expectations for the fourth straight monthly increase and the largest one in almost a decade, according to StatCan. 7 of the 8 sectors showed increases to sales, and all provinces and territories observed gains. Automotive sector registered its 3rd monthly gain, picking up 4.0% in May. Higher sales of recreational vehicles drove sales of used and recreational vehicles and parts dealers up 8.4% in May, the highest growth rate of the last five years, said StatCan. | |||||
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| +2.3% | +0.5% | -0.3% | +0.2% | ||
| StatCan explains the huge rebound by citing poor weather in April and "warmer-than-usual" weather in May. Sales in the building and outdoor home supplies sector swung from a 3.7% drop to a 6.0% gain. Sales of clothing and accessories surged 4.6% after a 3.1% drop. Apparently, a large 2.5% increase of constant prices did not hamper retail sales. | |||||
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.9% | ||
| Retail sales for April showed gains on the strength of new car dealers' sales, but decelerated from a month ago, according to StatCan. The automotive sector saw a 1.6% gain in April following an even stronger 3.6% increase in March. Furthermore, half the provinces showed gains. | |||||