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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 2.2% | 0.5% | -2.0% | N/A | ||
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For March (s.a.)
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| 7/30 | 9/8 | 9/29 | 11/2 | 12/1 | 1/6 | 2/3 | 3/2 | 3/31 | 5/5 | ||
| Actual | -1.0% | 0.1% | 0.3% | -1.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 3.8% | 0.2% | -2.0% | 2.2% | |
| Forecast | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | -0.5% | -0.2% | -0.4% | 1.0% | -0.5% | -0.5% | 0.5% | |
| Previous | 0.9% | -1.0% | 0.1% | 0.5% | -1.1% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 3.8% | 0.5% | -2.0% | |
| Revised From | 0.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.7% | N/A | N/A | 0.2% | N/A | |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -2.0% | -0.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | ||
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For February (s.a.)
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.2% | -0.5% | 3.8% | N/A | ||
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For January (s.a.)
Retail Sales (Trends): pr. 0.0% (Dec), 0.1% (Nov), 0.2% (Oct), 0.2% (Sep) |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 3.8% | 1.0% | 0.4% | N/A | ||
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For December (s.a.)
Retail Sales (Trends): n/a, forecast 0.3%, pr. 0.1% (Nov),
0.2% (Oct),
From the Release: "The Federal Government Economic Security Strategy Package implemented in December 2008 has impacted on Australian retail turnover. If the trend estimates in this publication were to be calculated without fully accounting for this irregular event, they would be likely to provide a misleading view of the underlying trend in retail activity. Until data is available in future months, it is not possible to determine the trend in retail turnover through the period affected by the stimulus package. As a result, the retail trend series have been suspended as at November 2008. See the Suspension of trend estimates section for details. The seasonally adjusted estimate increased by 3.8% in December 2008. This follows increases of 0.4% in November and 1.0% in October 2008. It should be noted that the full retail sample was reinstated from November 2008." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.4% | -0.4% | 1.0% | 0.7% | ||
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For November (s.a.)
Retail Sales (Trends): 0.1% n/a, forecast 0.1%, pr. 0.2% (Oct),
0.2% (Sep)
Australian retail sales rose in November, backed by sharp reduction in the country's base interest rate, heavy discounts at retailers and falling gas prices. The retail sales trend series increased 0.1%, as Australians bought more food (0.7%), though they shopped less at department stores (-0.4%). A fall in domestic spending has been a major catalyst for the Australian economy expanding at its weakest pace in eight years in the 3rd quarter, though the government and the central bank has taken bold action to try and free up borrowing costs and put extra money into the pockets of consumers. In a seasonally adjusted basis, sales rose 0.4% when they were expected to fall by 0.4%, and the figure for October was revised higher.
The Aussie stalled today near the 0.7270 level against the greenback following a climb from 0.6850 we saw the last 4 sessions. Today's intra-day high was the highest the Australian Dollar has been since October 14th. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.7% | -0.2% | -1.1% | N/A | ||
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For October (s.a.)
Retail Sales m/m (Trends): 0.2%, forecast 0.1%, pr. 0.2% (Sep)
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -1.1% | -0.5% | 0.5% | N/A | ||
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For September (Trends Basis)
Retail Sales m/m (s.a.): pr. 0.2%, forecast 0.2%, pr. 0.2% (Aug)
Retail sales in Australia were up 0.2% on a trends basis, and was down 1.1% when seasonally adjusted. The fall in the seasonally adjusted rate was the steepest decline since April 2005 and undershot expectations. September saw a sharp 10% decline in local stocks, higher petrol prices and a huge knock to confidence as a result of the global crisis. That resulted in a cut back on spending by consumers, especially discretionary spending on cafes, restaurants and other food. The weak spending will give the RBA more ammunition heading into their interest rate meeting scheduled for Monday at 10:30 PM EST, where policy members are expected to lower rates by 50 basis points to 5.5%. On a trend basis, retail sales climbed by 0.2% in September, the 4th straight month that growth was that pace, and slowed the annual trend basis rate to 2.3%, which was the weakest since mid 2005. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | N/A | ||
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For August (s.a.)
The retail sales trend series was up 0.3% in August. Its the second month where the trend series replaced the seasonally adjusted retail sales number after the statistics bureau cut its sample size. The better than expected figure may reflect stronger consumer spending in the face of anticipation that interest rates were going to come down. The Reserve Bank of Australia lowered rates by 25 basis points to 7% on September 2nd, the first reduction in 7 years. Expectations are for another 25 or 50 basis point cut when the RBA meets next on October 7th. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.1% | 0.5% | -1.0% | N/A | ||
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For July (s.a.)
Australia's retail sales rose in June, but barely. The 0.1% increase was lower than forecast, but did show a marked improvement compared to the 1.0% decline in June. The series has been changed this month, from a seasonally adjusted numbers to a new monthly trends series. Faced with budget cutbacks the bureau has cut its sample size of the survey by two thirds. That will make this indicator less reliable, despite it being the most important for monitoring consumer spending. Last month, which used the older survey sample, saw sales fall 1.0%, which was the largest decline in 6 years. The RBA said it will pursue a gradual approach to how it moves on interest rates. Last week was the first time in 7 years the RBA lowered rates. Whether the bank will move to lower rates in its next meeting will be a key factor in Aussie pairs. ``The question will be do we hold here or go down a bit more'' on interest rates,'' Stevens told a parliamentary committee in Melbourne yesterday. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -1.0% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 0.7% | ||
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For June (s.a.)
Australian retail sales tumbled in June, falling 1%, the largest decline in 6 years. Consumers are curbing spending in the face of rising gas prices and the highest borrowing costs in 17 years. Sales at department stores was down 5.2% with clothing sales down 5%.
The Reserve Bank of Australia was very proactive in trying to quell inflation, and had increased interest rates 3 times in 2008. The effect has been a moderation in domestic demand, as evident by this piece of data. Consumer confidence is down, unemployment is increasing and the housing market has slackened. Like the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the Australian central bank may need to cut rates in order to make sure a moderation in growth doesnt turn into a more severe downturn. |
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