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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -1.9% | -0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | ||
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For April (s.a.)
Ind. Prod. y/y: -21.6%, forecast -20.5%, pr. -20.4% (Mar),
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| 9/5 | 10/8 | 11/7 | 12/8 | 1/9 | 2/6 | 3/12 | 4/9 | 5/8 | 6/9 | ||
| Actual | -1.8% | 3.4% | -3.6% | -2.1% | -3.1% | -4.6% | -7.5% | -2.9% | 0.0% | -1.9% | |
| Forecast | -0.5% | -0.5% | -1.9% | -1.5% | -2.0% | -2.2% | -3.0% | -2.9% | -1.3% | -0.2% | |
| Previous | 0.1% | -1.6% | 3.4% | -3.3% | -1.8% | -3.1% | -4.6% | -6.1% | -2.9% | 0.3% | |
| Revised From | 0.2% | N/A | N/A | -3.6% | -2.1% | N/A | N/A | -7.5% | N/A | 0.0% | |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.0% | -1.3% | -2.9% | N/A | ||
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For March (s.a.)
Ind. Prod. y/y: -20.4% forecast -21.1%, pr. -20.6% (Feb), -17.9% (Jan),
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -2.9% | -2.9% | -6.1% | -7.5% | ||
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For February (s.a.)
Ind. Prod. y/y: -20.6%, forecast -21.7%, pr. -17.9% R (Jan), -12.0% (Dec),
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -7.5% | -3.0% | -4.6% | N/A | ||
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For January (s.a.)
Ind. Prod. y/y: -22.8%, forecast -15.5%, pr. -12.0% (Dec), -6.4% (Nov),
Industrial production in Germany disappointed forecasts, and comes on the heels of a very weak factory orders report. Output fell 7.5% on the month in January, which more than doubled the 3% expected fall, and is the 5th month in a row that output has been down. On the year, production levels are 22.8% lower. Both the monthly and annual drops were the biggest since Germany reunified in 1990. The ministry expects industrial activity to remain weak in the coming months. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -4.6% | -2.2% | -3.1% | N/A | ||
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For December (s.a.)
Ind. Prod. y/y: -12.0%, forecast -9.6%, pr. -6.4% (Nov), -3.8% (Oct),
Industrial output was down 4.6% in December on a seasonally adjusted basis, the fourth straight month that production was down, and the steepest fall since records began in 1991. The fall was paced by a 5.3% reduction in manufacturing output. On an annual pace, output fell 12%. It's numbers like these that had traders confounded about the ECB's insistence on pausing in their rate cutting campaign yesterday. The German economy is the biggest in the euro area, and it is expected to have contracted about 2% in the fourth quarter of 2008, and GDP is expected to shrink at least 2% this year. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -3.1% | -2.0% | -1.8% | -2.1% | ||
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For November (s.a.)
Ind. Prod. (s.a.) y/y: -6.4%, forecast -5.5%, pr. -3.8% (Oct), -2.1% (Sep),
German industrial production fell by 3.1% in November, a larger than expected drop. Production in manufacturing was down 3.5%, while energy goods production slipped 0.2%. On an annualized basis production was down 6.4%, also larger than the forecast and the previous month 3.8% drop. The industrial production data, along with factory orders and trade figures yesterday, are showing the German economy sinking deeper into recession as the 4th quarter went on. Though retail sales saw a surprising increase for the month, that positive sign may be short lived, as consumers were most likely taking advantage of deep discounts to do their holiday shopping. With exports falling at a record pace, and domestic demand for capital goods faltering such dismal production data will have to weigh on the minds of policy makers at the ECB. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -2.1% | -1.5% | -3.3% | -3.6% | ||
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For October (s.a.)
Ind. Prod. (s.a.) y/y: -3.8%, forecast -3.6%, pr.-2.1% (Sep), 1.7% (Aug), 3.5% (Jul),
The contraction in manufacturing orders were reflected in the continual decline in the eurozone's industrial production levels, which fell 2.1% on the month, and 3.8% on the year. Economists had expected a decline of just 1.5% on the month. Orders have been declining since the beginning of the year keeping production levels low. Meanwhile, construction output dropped 3%, and energy production edged up 0.2%. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -3.6% | -1.9% | 3.4% | N/A | ||
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For September (s.a.)
Ind. Prod. (s.a.) y/y: -2.1%, forecast -0.5%, pr. 1.7% (Aug), 3.5% (Jul), 1.5% (Jun),
Industrial production in Germany fell 3.6% in September, the largest decline in 14 years. That decrease wiped away the growth in August, and undershot economists' expectations. Earlier in the week, factory orders from Germany were shown to be down 8%, so this weak number is consistent with that data. German companies are facing the pressures of weaker demand both at home and abroad as the global economy goes contracts in the face of the credit crisis. Both business and consumer confidence is very low and both are scaling back their spending and purchases. This months drop was led by a 7.2% drop in the production of durable goods such as washing machines and televisions. The ECB lowered rates yesterday to try and deal with what is most probably already a recession. As Germany depends on exports for a sizable part of its GDP how severe and long lasting the global slowdown will be will be an important indicator to the health of the largest economy in the Euro-zone. The European Commission said Germany wont grow at all next year. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 3.4% | -0.5% | -1.6% | N/A | ||
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For August (s.a.)
Ind. Prod. (s.a.) y/y: 1.7%, forecast -2.9%, pr. 3.5% (Jul), 1.5% (Jun),
German industrial output in August rose a seasonally adjusted 3.4% on the month, according to the Economy and Technology Ministry. This is the largest gain since August 1993 and is consistent with the jump in factory orders on the month. Going forward however, the ministry orders are expected to be subdued and therefore production would be as well. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -1.8% | -0.5% | 0.1% | 0.2% | ||
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For July (s.a.)
Ind. Prod. (n.s.a.) y/y: -0.6%, forecast 0.9%, pr. 1.5% r (Jun), 1.1% (May),
Industrial production undershot forecasts, falling 1.8% in July, increasing the pressure on the German economy, which has been faltering in the 2nd quarter and the start of the 3rd quarter. Manufacturing orders declined for the 8th straight month this week, and the business remains weak, which will limit production in the coming months. If the German economy, the largest in the Euro-zone, continues to struggle, it goes a long way to another negative quarter of growth which would put the euro-zone in recession. |
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