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Main Indicator: Industrial Production m/m
Most Recent Release
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -2.4% | 0.2% | -0.2% | -0.8% | ||
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For May (s.a.)
Industrial Production n.s.a. y/y: 0.8%, forecast 3.2%, pr. 4.8% (Apr), 4.7% (Mar) Germany's industrial production sank 2.4% for the month of May, surprising forecasts of a slight increase. On the year, production cooled to a 0.8% growth rate from April's 4.8%. Its another piece of data showing the German economy, which has recently been an engine of growth for the Euro-zone, is losing its momentum. Last Friday, manufacturing orders fell 0.9%, the 6th straight month factory orders were negative. The European economy is now succumbing to a slowdown, as high inflation and borrowing costs limit consumer spending and record high commodity prices and a global slowdown are cutting into companies profits. The ECB raised rates to 4.25% last week as well, increasing credit costs. |
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Table of Past Data
| 10/9 | 11/7 | 12/7 | 1/9 | 2/8 | 3/7 | 4/7 | 5/8 | 6/6 | 7/7 | ||
| Actual | 1.7% | 0.3% | -0.3% | -0.9% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 0.4% | -0.5% | -0.8% | -2.4% | |
| Forecast | 0.4% | -0.3% | -0.4% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 0.3% | -0.4% | -0.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| Previous | 0.2% | 1.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | -0.3% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 0.4% | -0.8% | -0.2% | |
| Revised From | 0.1% | 1.7% | 0.3% | -0.3% | -0.9% | 0.8% | 1.8% | N/A | -0.5% | -0.8% | |
Past Releases
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.8% | 0.2% | -0.8% | -0.5% | ||
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For April (s.a.)
Industrial Production n.s.a. y/y: 4.8%, forecast 6.3%, pr. 4.7%
German industrial production fell 0.8% between March and April, and the annual pace slowed to 4.8%. Both figure were lower than forecast and continue recent data out of Germany showing the largest economy in the Euro-zone losing its momentum in the 2nd quarter. March's figure was revised down to also show a 0.8% decline in output. Foreign manufacturing orders fell 3.8% on the month, while domestic orders gained 0.3%. Demand from other countries within the Euro-zone slid 5.6%.
The jump to $130 per barrel oil has forced both companies and households to scale back their spending, at the same time that European goods are becoming more expensive abroad due to a stronger Euro. yesterday, a report on German factory orders revealed a 1.8% decline. With the ECB signaling that it may have to raise rates soon in order to control inflation, it will only add pressure on already high credit costs, a third negative factor on growth. The one positive that may come out of this, at least for Trichet and others of the Governing Council is that a slowing economy may be the only thing that puts the breaks on higher prices withing the economy. This will have to be accompanied however by a stabilization of oil prices, which continue to push new boundaries. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.5% | -0.5% | 0.4% | N/A | ||
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For March (s.a.)
Industrial Production n.s.a. y/y: 4.7%, forecast 5.0%, pr. 5.7% Industrial production declined 0.5% on the month in March, and was up at a slower pace of 4.7% in annual terms. Output has stalled as the global slowdown affects foreign demand (exports declined for a second straight month) and a higher euro cuts into the competitiveness of German exports. Also, cold weather in March, hurt construction output as it fell 12.3%. The German economy is losing momentum as credit costs remain high and indicators like factory orders are showing negative results. Germany has so far been better equipped to deal with the global slowdown as strong demand for German exports from Asia and Russia helped offset declines in demand from the US. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.4% | -0.4% | 1.4% | 1.8% | ||
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For February (s.a.)
German manufacturing edged out some growth of 0.3%, while construction outputs increased 3.7%. Energy sector production declined 1.1%. German industrial production has been resislient and is boosting Eurozone's economic outlook. However there is a slowdown in manufacturing orders for February, which indicates that there plants will scale back production in light of the weaker demand. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 1.8% | 0.3% | 1.5% | 0.8% | ||
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For January
Industrial Production n.s.a. y/y: 6.9%, forecast 4.6%, pr. 4.9% (revised from 4.1%)
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.8% | 1.0% | -0.3% | -0.9% | ||
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For December
Industrial Production n.s.a. y/y: 4.1%, forecast 4.2%, pr. 3.5%
German industrial production rose 0.8% for December on a seasonally adjusted basis, while November's was revised up. The positive growth in output breaks two months of negative gains.
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | -0.3% | ||
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For November. Economy and Technology Ministry Industrial Production y/y: 3.9%, forecast 4.6%, pr. 6.0%. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.3% | -0.4% | 0.1% | 0.3% | ||
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For October. Economy and Technology Ministry Industrial Production n.s.a. y/y: 6.0%, forecast 5.9%, pr. 6.0% (Sept) Output in Germany fell .3% in October, though forecasts called for an even bigger fall. Production was boosted by a 2.1% increase to investment goods, such as factory machinery. Energy output dropped 3.6%, and durable goods output fell 3.5%. European companies are facing increased oil prices and a strong euro, and have caused growth to slow in the past two months. However, as yesterday Factor Orders showed, there is still strong demand for investment goods, especially from foreign sales. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.3% | -0.3% | 1.9% | 1.7% | ||
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For September. Industrial Production s.a. y/y: 6.0% (Sept), consensus 5.1%, pr. 5.2% (Aug), rev. from 5.1%. German industrial production increased 0.3%, beating expectations of a negative drop. This follows yesterday's lower than expected Factory Orders (-2.5% m/m in Sept). Energy saw the largest increase at 1.0% m/m. Capital Goods were up 0.1%, and construction showed a 0.7% increase. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | ||
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For August. Industrial production in Germany increased by 1.7% (s.a.) in August, a large advance on July's 0.2%, and steadily beat forecasts of a 0.4% rise. The gains were led by a surge for consumer goods (+4.1%) and from strong demand abroad. Consumers spending should be robust as Germany posted its lowest unemployment rate (8.8% in Sept) in 14 years. Even though the Euro has appreciated significantly against the US dollar, demand from other parts of the world seem to be keeping exports strong. |
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