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Main Indicator: Industrial Production
Most Recent Release
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.9% | ||
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For February
Industrial Production y/y: 3.1%, forecast 2.9%, pr. 3.3% r(3.8%)
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Table of Past Data
| 5/14 | 6/12 | 9/12 | 10/12 | 11/13 | 12/12 | 1/14 | 2/13 | 3/12 | 4/14 | ||
| Actual | 0.40% | -0.8% | 0.6% | 1.2% | -0.7% | 0.4% | -0.5% | -0.2% | 0.9% | 0.3% | |
| Forecast | 0.30% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% to 0.3% | -0.4% | 0.2% | -0.7% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | |
| Previous | 0.50% | 0.4% | -0.1% | 0.7% | 1.2% | -0.8% | 0.5% | -0.4% | 0.0% | 0.6% | |
| Revised From | 0.60% | N/A | N/A | 0.4% | N/A | -0.7% | 0.4% | -0.5% | -0.2% | 0.9% | |
Secondary Indicator: Industrial New Orders m/m
Most Recent Release
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -3.5% | -1.3% | 2.0% | 2.5% | ||
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For May - (s.a.)
Industrial New Orders y/y: -4.4%, forecast 3.2%, pr 12.3% (Apr), -3.7% (Mar) Euro-zone industrial orders disappointed forecasts for the May period, falling 3.5%. The consensus forecast was for a drop of 1.3%. The figure reverses all of April's 2% gain. European exports are facing weaker demand from the US and the UK, and European companies face higher operating costs and consumers faced with rising inflation. GDP growth is expected to be weaker in 2nd quarter as manufacturing activity contracts in the face of higher costs, mainly oil and energy, and weakening foreign demand.
EUR/USD - Greenback Gains for Second Day: The Euro was lower against the Dollar overnight, falling to test the area near 1.5720 following the release. After the NY open the the Euro fell further to breach 1.57. European stocks gained overnight and the EUR/JPY pair tested 169.70 overnight, but gave up its gains in NY morning trading.
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Table of Past Data
| 10/23 | 11/22 | 12/21 | 1/23 | 2/22 | 3/26 | 4/23 | 5/22 | 6/25 | 7/23 | ||
| Actual | 0.3% | -1.6% | 2.5% | 2.7% | -3.6% | 2.0% | 0.6% | -1.0% | 2.5% | -3.5% | |
| Forecast | 0.8% | -0.7% | 2.0% | 1.2% | -1.1% | 0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.5% | -1.3% | |
| Previous | -2.6% | 0.8% | -1.0% | 2.5% | 2.0% | -3.6% | 2.2% | 0.2% | -1.2% | 2.0% | |
| Revised From | -4.0% | 0.3% | -1.6% | N/A | 2.7% | N/A | 2.0% | 0.6% | -1.0% | 2.5% | |
Past Releases
Industrial New Orders m/m
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 2.5% | -0.5% | -1.2% | -1.0% | ||
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For April - (s.a.)
Industrial New Orders y/y: 11.7%,
forecast 2.7%, pr -3.7%
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -1.0% | -0.4% | 0.2% | 0.6% | ||
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For March - (s.a.)
New Orders y/y: -2.5%, forecast 4.8%, pr. 9.9% (Feb), 7.3% (Jan) Euro-zone industrial new orders slid in March, with the monthly growth rate showing a 1% fall. Its the first fall after 3 months of gains. The fall was more than double what economists had predicted. The annual rate fell to -2.5%. Orders are being squeezed by a high Euro, higher oil prices and a slowing US economy. Evidence is mounting that the 2nd quarter will be much weaker than the 1st, which surprised forecasts with GDP growth of 0.7%. Germany seems to be holding up while other economies in the Euro-zone like Spain and Italy are struggling. Weaker demand from the US, a key market for exports, will only add pressure as a slowdown in domestic spending also curtais orders for industrial orders. The Euro, which has been surging the last 2 sessions against the Dollar, reached a high at 1.5813 prior to the release and fell afterward. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.6% | -0.4% | 2.2% | 2.0% | ||
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For February - (s.a.)
New Orders y/y: 9.9%, forecast 5.7%, pr. 7.3% (Jan), 2.1% (Dec) Industrial new orders recorded a positive 0.6% change in February on the month, and a 9.9% increase compared to February of last year. Both numbers beat expectations, but the better news came as the Euro was paring its gains from yesterday's session and it didn't have much impact. Also, the figures are somewhat dated as it takes into account February's data. In annual terms, new orders for transport equipment increased 16.6%, while manufacturing of electrical and electronic equipment grew by 10.6%.
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 2.0% | 0.4% | -3.6% | N/A | ||
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For January - (s.a.)
New Orders y/y: 7.3%, forecast 3.3%, pr. 2.1% (Dec), 11.9% (Nov) Though October (2.5%) and November (2.7) showed positive growth in industrial new orders, in December orders slipped by 3.6%. Forecasts for January's seasonally adjusted monthly rate are for a small positive change. The annual rate of orders slid from 11.9% in November to 2.1% in December. January's numbers proved better than anticipated, with a 2.0% increase on the month, and a 7.3% increase on the year. Both numbers beat expectations, and the figure came after an earlier release had already boosted the Euro against the Dollar. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | -0.2% | ||
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For January
Industrial Production y/y: 3.8%, forecast 2.6%, pr. 1.7% (rev from 1.3%) Industrial production grew by 0.9% on the month, and 3.8% on the year. Both figures beat expectations, and even December's data was revised up. The Euro was up on the Dollar today as investors began to doubt that the Fed's announced action yesterday will be the magic bullet needed to cure the US financial institutions' problems. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -3.6% | -1.1% | 2.0% | 2.7% | ||
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For December - (s.a.)
New Orders y/y: 2.1%, forecast 8.3%, pr. 11.9%
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.2% | 0.5% | -0.4% | -0.5% | ||
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Monthly Change (s.a.) for December
Industrial Production y/y: 1.3%, forecast 2.3%, pr. 2.7%. Industrial Production declined 0.2% in December, undershooting forecasts, with the annual figure declining by half from November's pace. The news is a negative sign for the Euro-zone economy, and can add pressure on the ECB to begin its own campaign of lowering interest rates in order to stimulate growth.
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 2.7% | 1.2% | 2.5% | N/A | ||
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For November - Seasonally Adjusted News Release from EuroStat (.pdf) New Orders y/y: 11.9%, forecast 9.0%, pr. 10.9%. New orders for industrial goods in November beat forecasts of a fall and gained compared to October. For the month orders increased 2.7%, and they were up 1.9% compared to Nov '06. For the month, positive contributors were new orders for transport equipment (+7.3%), metals (+5.8%) and metal products (+3.0%), and chemicals and chemical products (+2.7%). |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.5% | -0.7% | 0.5% | 0.4% | ||
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Monthly Change (s.a.) for November. News Release from Eurostat (.pdf) Industrial Production y/y: 2.7%, forecast 2.8%, pr. 4.1% (rev. up from 3.8%) From November to October, seasonally adjusted industrial production fell by 0.5% in the euro-area, wiping away October's 0.5% gain. This was better than teh consensus estimate of a 0.7% decrease. Capital goods decreased by 0.7% with durable consumer goods declining by 1.9%, meaning both companies and consumers reigned in orders of items meant to last more than 3 years. Production of energy increased by 0.4%m and non-durable consumer goods were up 0.1%. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 2.5% | 2.0% | -1.0% | -1.6% | ||
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Seasonally Adjusted for October. Industrial New Orders y/y: 10.9%, forecast 6.5%, pr. 2.4% |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.4% | 0.2% | -0.8% | -0.7% | ||
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Monthly Change For October. Industrial Production y/y: 3.8%, forecast 3.7%, pr. 3.3% (rev. from 3.5%) |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -1.6% | -0.7% | 0.8% | 0.3% | ||
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For September Industrial New Orders y/y: 2.0% (Sept), forecast 6.5%, pr. 5.1% (Aug). |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.7% | -0.4% | 1.2% | N/A | ||
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Seasonally Adjusted m/m for September. Eurostat Industrial Production y/y: 3.5% (Sept), consensus 4.5%, pr. 4.3% (Aug) |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.3% | 0.8% | -2.6% | -4.0% | ||
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For August 2007 compared with July 2007 in the EA13 zone. New orders compared to July 2007 for chemicals and chemical products rose by 2.4%. Manufacturing of basic metals and fabricated metal products increased by 0.2%. Also in the month's span, machinery and equipment remained unchanged in the euro area. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 1.2% | 0.2% to 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.4% | ||
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For August.
Euro-zone Ind Prod y/y: 4.3%, pr. 3.9% (rev. from 3.7) |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.6% | 0.2% | -0.1% | N/A | ||
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Industrial production in the euro area was up 0.6% in July compared to June's 0.1% decline. For the year, industrial production grew by 3.7%, according to Eurostat. Production of capital goods increased by 1.0% (6.3% y/y); intermediate goods grew by 0.5% (3.7% y/y). Non-durable goods rose by 0.3% (2.9% y/y). |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.8% | 0.2% | 0.4% | N/A |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.40% | 0.30% | 0.50% | 0.60% |