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Indicator Digest

Services PMI
Services are measured by the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in the US, Euro-zone, UK and Australia. A level above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector, while a reading below 50 indicators contraction. The Index measures employment, production, new orders, supplier deliveries, and inventories. It is also one of the timeliest indicators, coming out near the beginning of the month.

Main Indicator: ISM Non-Manufacturing Index

Most Recent Release

March
3rd, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
53.0 51.0 50.5 N/A

For February
Latest Release Provided by: Institute of Supply Management

Bus. Activity: 54.8, pr. 52.2 (Jan), 53.7 (Dec), 49.6 (Nov), 55.2 (Oct),
55.1 (Sep), 51.3 (Aug), 46.1 (Jul), 49.8 (Jun), 42,4 (May), 45.2 (Apr)
New Orders: 55.0, pr. 54.7 (Jan), 52.1 (Dec), 55.1 (Nov), 55.6 (Oct),
54.2 (Sep), 49.9 (Aug), 48.1 (Jul), 48.6 (Jun), 44.4 (May), 47.0 (Apr)
Employment: 48.6, pr. 44.6 (Jan), 44.0 (Dec), 41.6 (Nov), 41.4 (Oct),
44.3 (Sep), 43.5 (Aug), 41.5 (Jul), 43.4 (Jun), 39.0 (May), 37.0 (Apr)
Prices Index: 60.4, pr. 61.2 (Jan), 58.7 (Dec), 57.8 (Nov), 53.0 (Oct),
48.8 (Sep), 63.1 (Aug), 41.3 (Jul), 53.7 (Jun), 46.9 (May), 40.0 (Apr)

From the Release: "The NMI (Non-Manufacturing Index) registered 53 percent in February, 2.5 percentage points higher than the seasonally adjusted 50.5 percent registered in January, indicating growth in the non-manufacturing sector. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased 2.6 percentage points to 54.8 percent, reflecting growth for the third consecutive month. The New Orders Index increased 0.3 percentage point to 55 percent, and the Employment Index increased 4 percentage points to 48.6 percent. The Prices Index decreased 0.8 percentage point to 60.4 percent in February, indicating an increase in prices paid from January. According to the NMI, nine non-manufacturing industries reported growth in February. Respondents' comments vary by industry and company about business conditions."

Table of Past Data

6/37/68/59/310/511/412/31/62/33/3
Actual44.047.046.448.450.950.648.750.150.553.0
Forecast45.146.148.148.350.051.651.650.551.251.0
Previous43.744.047.046.448.450.950.648.749.850.5
Revised FromN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A

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Secondary Indicator: ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices

Most Recent Release

February
5th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
70.7 69.8 72.2 N/A

Table of Past Data

5/36/57/58/39/610/311/512/51/42/5
Actual63.566.465.561.358.666.163.576.572.270.7
Forecast59.561.564.064.060.857.067.063.073.569.8
Previous63.363.566.465.561.358.666.163.576.572.2
Revised FromN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A

Past Releases

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
February
3rd, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
50.5 51.2 49.8 N/A

For January
Latest Release Provided by: Institute of Supply Management

Bus. Activity: 52.2, pr. 53.7 (Dec), 49.6 (Nov), 55.2 (Oct), 55.1 (Sep),
51.3 (Aug), 46.1 (Jul), 49.8 (Jun), 42,4 (May), 45.2 (Apr), 44.1 (Mar)
New Orders: 54.7, pr. 52.1 (Dec), 55.1 (Nov), 55.6 (Oct), 54.2 (Sep),
49.9 (Aug), 48.1 (Jul), 48.6 (Jun), 44.4 (May), 47.0 (Apr), 38.8 (Mar)
Employment: 44.6, pr. 44.0 (Dec), 41.6 (Nov), 41.4 (Oct), 44.3 (Sep),
43.5 (Aug), 41.5 (Jul), 43.4 (Jun), 39.0 (May), 37.0 (Apr), 32.3 (Mar)
Prices Index: 61.2, pr. 58.7 (Dec), 57.8 (Nov), 53.0 (Oct), 48.8 (Sep),
63.1 (Aug), 41.3 (Jul), 53.7 (Jun), 46.9 (May), 40.0 (Apr), 39.1 (Mar)

The ISM non-manufacturing index showed that the services expanded, but at a tepid pace in January. The index came in at 50.5, where 50 is the line separating expansion and contraction. The report showed that price pressure were higher and the increase in the new orders index to 54.7 is a good sign for future output. However, the employment index remained in contractionary territory as services firms continue to be skittish about hiring. 

From the Release: "The NMI (Non-Manufacturing Index) registered 50.5 percent in January, 0.7 percentage point higher than the seasonally adjusted 49.8 percent registered in December, indicating growth in the non-manufacturing sector. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index decreased 1 percentage point to 52.2 percent, reflecting growth for the second consecutive month. The New Orders Index increased 2.7 percentage points to 54.7 percent, and the Employment Index increased 1 percentage point to 44.6 percent. The Prices Index increased 1.6 percentage points to 61.2 percent in January, indicating an increase in prices paid from December. According to the NMI, four non-manufacturing industries reported growth in January. Respondents' comments overall are cautiously optimistic about business conditions."

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
January
6th, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
50.1 50.5 48.7 N/A

For December
Latest Release Provided by: Institute of Supply Management

Bus. Activity: 53.7, pr. 49.6 (Nov), 55.2 (Oct), 55.1 (Sep), 51.3 (Aug),
46.1 (Jul), 49.8 (Jun), 42,4 (May), 45.2 (Apr), 44.1 (Mar), 40.2 (Feb)
New Orders: 52.1, pr. 55.1 (Nov), 55.6 (Oct), 54.2 (Sep), 49.9 (Aug),
48.1 (Jul), 48.6 (Jun), 44.4 (May), 47.0 (Apr), 38.8 (Mar), 40.7 (Feb)
Employment: 44.0, pr. 41.6 (Nov), 41.4 (Oct), 44.3 (Sep), 43.5 (Aug),
41.5 (Jul), 43.4 (Jun), 39.0 (May), 37.0 (Apr), 32.3 (Mar), 37.3 (Feb)
Prices Index: 58.7, pr. 57.8 (Nov), 53.0 (Oct), 48.8 (Sep), 63.1 (Aug),
41.3 (Jul), 53.7 (Jun), 46.9 (May), 40.0 (Apr), 39.1 (Mar), 48.1 (Feb)

From the Release: "The NMI (Non-Manufacturing Index) registered 50.1 percent in December, 1.4 percentage points higher than the 48.7 percent registered in November, indicating growth in the non-manufacturing sector for three out of the last four months. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased 4.1 percentage points to 53.7 percent, reflecting growth after contracting for one month. The New Orders Index decreased 3 percentage points to 52.1 percent, and the Employment Index increased 2.4 percentage points to 44 percent. The Prices Index increased 0.9 percentage point to 58.7 percent in December, indicating a slight increase in prices paid from November. According to the NMI, seven non-manufacturing industries reported growth in December. Respondents' comments vary by industry and, for the most part, are either neutral or slightly more optimistic about business conditions."

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
December
3rd, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
48.7 51.6 50.6 N/A

For November
Latest Release Provided by: Institute of Supply Management

Bus. Activity: 49.6, pr. 55.2 (Oct), 55.1 (Sep), 51.3 (Aug), 46.1 (Jul),
49.8 (Jun), 42,4 (May), 45.2 (Apr), 44.1 (Mar), 40.2 (Feb), 44.2 (Jan)
New Orders: 55.1, pr. 55.6 (Oct), 54.2 (Sep), 49.9 (Aug), 48.1 (Jul),
48.6 (Jun), 44.4 (May), 47.0 (Apr), 38.8 (Mar), 40.7 (Feb), 41.6 (Jan)
Employment: 41.6, pr. 41.4 (Oct), 44.3 (Sep), 43.5 (Aug), 41.5 (Jul),
43.4 (Jun), 39.0 (May), 37.0 (Apr), 32.3 (Mar), 37.3 (Feb), 34.4 (Jan)
Prices Index: 57.8, pr. 53.0 (Oct), 48.8 (Sep), 63.1 (Aug), 41.3 (Jul),
53.7 (Jun), 46.9 (May), 40.0 (Apr), 39.1 (Mar), 48.1 (Feb), 42.5 (Jan)

In a bad development, the US services sector slipped back in contraction in November, with the ISM non-manufacturing index down to 48.7 from October's 50.6. The move down was led by a slide in the business activity index which means respondents are more cautious about business conditions. New orders were still strong at 55.1, while employment remained mired in the low 40's. 

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
November
4th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
50.6 51.6 50.9 N/A

For October
Latest Release Provided by: Institute of Supply Management

Bus. Activity: 55.2, pr. 55.1 (Sep), 51.3 (Aug), 46.1 (Jul), 49.8 (Jun),
42,4 (May), 45.2 (Apr), 44.1 (Mar), 40.2 (Feb), 44.2 (Jan), 39.6 (Dec)
New Orders: 55.6, pr. 54.2 (Sep), 49.9 (Aug), 48.1 (Jul), 48.6 (Jun),
44.4 (May), 47.0 (Apr), 38.8 (Mar), 40.7 (Feb), 41.6 (Jan), 39.9 (Dec)
Employment: 41.4, pr. 44.3 (Sep), 43.5 (Aug), 41.5 (Jul), 43.4 (Jun),
39.0 (May), 37.0 (Apr), 32.3 (Mar), 37.3 (Feb), 34.4 (Jan), 34.7 (Dec)
Prices Index: 53.0, pr. 48.8 (Sep), 63.1 (Aug), 41.3 (Jul), 53.7 (Jun),
46.9 (May), 40.0 (Apr), 39.1 (Mar), 48.1 (Feb), 42.5 (Jan), 36.0 (Dec)

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
October
5th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
50.9 50.0 48.4 N/A

For September
Latest Release Provided by: Institute of Supply Management

Bus. Activity: 55.1, pr. 51.3 (Aug), 46.1 (Jul), 49.8 (Jun), 42,4 (May),
45.2 (Apr), 44.1 (Mar), 40.2 (Feb), 44.2 (Jan), 39.6 (Dec), 37.3 (Nov)
New Orders: 54.2, pr. 49.9 (Aug), 48.1 (Jul), 48.6 (Jun), 44.4 (May),
47.0 (Apr), 38.8 (Mar), 40.7 (Feb), 41.6 (Jan), 39.9 (Dec), 35.4 (Nov)
Employment: 44.3, pr. 43.5 (Aug), 41.5 (Jul), 43.4 (Jun), 39.0 (May),
37.0 (Apr), 32.3 (Mar), 37.3 (Feb), 34.4 (Jan), 34.7 (Dec), 31.3 (Nov)
Prices Index: 48.8, pr. 63.1 (Aug), 41.3 (Jul), 53.7 (Jun), 46.9 (May),
40.0 (Apr), 39.1 (Mar), 48.1 (Feb), 42.5 (Jan), 36.0 (Dec), 36.6 (Nov)

From the Release: "The NMI (Non-Manufacturing Index) registered 50.9 percent in September, 2.5 percentage points higher than the 48.4 percent registered in August, indicating growth in the non-manufacturing sector after 11 consecutive months of contraction. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased 3.8 percentage points to 55.1 percent. This is the second consecutive month this index has reflected growth since September 2008. The New Orders Index increased 4.3 percentage points to 54.2 percent, and the Employment Index increased 0.8 percentage point to 44.3 percent. The Prices Index decreased 14.3 percentage points to 48.8 percent in September, indicating a significant reversal and decrease in prices paid from August. According to the NMI, five non-manufacturing industries reported growth in September. Even with the overall month-over-month growth reflected in the report this month, respondents' comments vary by industry and remain mixed about business conditions and the overall economy."

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
September
3rd, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
48.4 48.3 46.4 N/A

For August
Latest Release Provided by: Institute of Supply Management

Bus. Activity: 51.3, pr. 46.1 (Jul), 49.8 (Jun), 42,4 (May), 45.2 (Apr),
44.1 (Mar), 40.2 (Feb), 44.2 (Jan), 39.6 (Dec), 37.3 (Nov), 44.2 (Oct)
New Orders: 49.9, pr. 48.1 (Jul), 48.6 (Jun), 44.4 (May), 47.0 (Apr),
38.8 (Mar), 40.7 (Feb), 41.6 (Jan), 39.9 (Dec), 35.4 (Nov), 44.0 (Oct)
Employment: 43.5, pr. 41.5 (Jul), 43.4 (Jun), 39.0 (May), 37.0 (Apr),
32.3 (Mar), 37.3 (Feb), 34.4 (Jan), 34.7 (Dec), 31.3 (Nov), 41.5 (Oct)
Prices Index: 63.1, pr. 41.3 (Jul), 53.7 (Jun), 46.9 (May), 40.0 (Apr),
39.1 (Mar), 48.1 (Feb), 42.5 (Jan), 36.0 (Dec), 36.6 (Nov), 53.4 (Oct)

From the Release: "The NMI (Non-Manufacturing Index) registered 48.4 percent in August, 2 percentage points higher than the 46.4 percent registered in July, indicating contraction in the non-manufacturing sector for the 11th consecutive month but at a slower rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased 5.2 percentage points to 51.3 percent. This is the first time this index has reflected growth since September 2008. The New Orders Index increased 1.8 percentage points to 49.9 percent, and the Employment Index increased 2 percentage points to 43.5 percent. The Prices Index increased 21.8 percentage points to 63.1 percent in August, indicating a substantial increase in prices paid from July. According to the NMI, six non-manufacturing industries reported growth in August. Respondents' comments are mixed about business conditions and the overall economy; however, there is an increase in comments indicating that there are signs of improvement going forward."

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
August
5th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
46.4 48.1 47.0 N/A

For July
Latest Release Provided by: Institute of Supply Management

Bus. Activity: 46.1, pr. 49.8 (Jun), 42,4 (May), 45.2 (Apr), 44.1 (Mar),
40.2 (Feb), 44.2 (Jan), 39.6 (Dec), 37.3 (Nov), 44.2 (Oct), 52.1 (Sep)
New Orders: 48.1, pr. 48.6 (Jun), 44.4 (May), 47.0 (Apr), 38.8 (Mar),
40.7 (Feb), 41.6 (Jan), 39.9 (Dec), 35.4 (Nov), 44.0 (Oct), 50.8 (Sep)
Employment: 41.5, pr. 43.4 (Jun), 39.0 (May), 37.0 (Apr), 32.3 (Mar),
37.3 (Feb), 34.4 (Jan), 34.7 (Dec), 31.3 (Nov), 41.5 (Oct), 44.2 (Sep)
Prices Index: 41.3, pr. 53.7 (Jun), 46.9 (May), 40.0 (Apr), 39.1 (Mar),
48.1 (Feb), 42.5 (Jan), 36.0 (Dec), 36.6 (Nov), 53.4 (Oct), 70.0 (Sep)

From the Release: "The NMI (Non-Manufacturing Index) registered 46.4 percent in July, 0.6 percentage point lower than the 47 percent registered in June, indicating contraction in the non-manufacturing sector for the 10th consecutive month, at a slightly faster rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index decreased 3.7 percentage points to 46.1 percent. The New Orders Index decreased 0.5 percentage point to 48.1 percent, and the Employment Index decreased 1.9 percentage points to 41.5 percent. The Prices Index decreased 12.4 percentage points to 41.3 percent in July, indicating a significant decrease in prices paid from June. According to the NMI, seven non-manufacturing industries reported growth in July. The majority of respondents' comments reflect a sense of uncertainty and cautiousness about business conditions."

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
July
6th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
47.0 46.1 44.0 N/A

For June
Latest Release Provided by: Institute of Supply Management

Bus. Activity: 49.8, pr. 42,4 (May), 45.2 (Apr), 44.1 (Mar), 40.2 (Feb),
44.2 (Jan), 39.6 (Dec), 37.3 (Nov), 44.2 (Oct), 52.1 (Sep),
New Orders: 48.6,  pr. 44.4 (May), 47.0 (Apr), 38.8 (Mar), 40.7 (Feb),
41.6 (Jan), 39.9 (Dec), 35.4 (Nov), 44.0 (Oct), 50.8 (Sep), 49.7 (Aug)
Employment: 43.4, pr. 39.0 (May), 37.0 (Apr), 32.3 (Mar), 37.3 (Feb),
34.4 (Jan), 34.7 (Dec), 31.3 (Nov), 41.5 (Oct), 44.2 (Sep), 45.4 (Aug)
Prices Index: 53.7, pr. 46.9 (May), 40.0 (Apr), 39.1 (Mar), 48.1 (Feb),
42.5 (Jan), 36.0 (Dec), 36.6 (Nov), 53.4 (Oct), 70.0 (Sep), 72.9 (Aug)

The services sector in the US, though still contracting, did so at a slower pace in June as the economy begins to move away from the depths of its recession that was seen in the 1st quarter. The ISM non-manufacturing index rose to 47, slightly higher than expectations, as business activity, new orders, employment and prices all improved compared to May. The prices index showed a positive reading for the first time since last October.  

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
June
3rd, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
44.0 45.1 43.7 N/A

For May
Latest Release Provided by: Institute of Supply Management

Bus. Activity: 42,4, pr. 45.2 (Apr), 44.1 (Mar), 40.2 (Feb), 44.2 (Jan),
39.6 (Dec), 37.3 (Nov), 44.2 (Oct), 52.1 (Sep), 51.6 (Aug)
New Orders: 44.4, pr. 47.0 (Apr), 38.8 (Mar), 40.7 (Feb), 41.6 (Jan),
39.9 (Dec), 35.4 (Nov), 44.0 (Oct), 50.8 (Sep), 49.7 (Aug)
Employment: 39, pr. 37.0 (Apr), 32.3 (Mar), 37.3 (Feb), 34.4 (Jan),
34.7 (Dec), 31.3 (Nov), 41.5 (Oct), 44.2 (Sep), 45.4 (Aug)
Prices Index: 46.9, pr. 40.0 (Apr), 39.1 (Mar), 48.1 (Feb), 42.5 (Jan),
36.0 (Dec), 36.6 (Nov), 53.4 (Oct), 70.0 (Sep), 72.9 (Aug)

The ISM non-manufacturing index rose to 44 for the May period, but that increase was slight compared to April's figure, and below the 45 reading expected by economists. The index measures the service sector, which amounts for a large amount of US economic activity. The index has been below the 50 level, which separates contraction from expansion, since October. The new orders index declined too 44.4 from 47.0, while employment though increasing to 39.0, was still in very contractionary territory. Prices meanwhile, though still falling, rose to 46.9 showing that inflation can pick up. The release is a mixed bag since it did not meet expectations. The recent run of data has given investors and traders a sense that positive economic activity could return this summer. This release does not change the perception either way, it wasn't better than expected meaning recovery is close, but since the figure was lower than expected it could mean a more gradual return to growth.

ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices
January
4th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
72.2 73.5 76.5 N/A
For December. Summary from Institute of Supply Management

The growth in prices in the non-manufacturing sector increased at a slower pace than in November, but the 72.2 reading means that 72.2% of respondents faced higher prices compared to last month.
ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices
December
5th, 2007
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
76.5 63.0 63.5 N/A
For November.
See "ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices" for more comments.

Prices increased for the 54th consecutive month, with this month showing a 13 percent point jump. Prices have been steadily gaining since August when this sub-gauge measured 58.6; in September it was 66.1; and in October it was 63.5.
ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices
November
5th, 2007
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
63.5 67.0 66.1 N/A
ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices
October
3rd, 2007
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
66.1 57.0 58.6 N/A
For September.

Price pressures remain on the upside for the 52nd consecutive month.
ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices
September
6th, 2007
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
58.6 60.8 61.3 N/A
ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices
August
3rd, 2007
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
61.3 64.0 65.5 N/A
ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices
July
5th, 2007
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
65.5 64.0 66.4 N/A
This is the 49th month of consecutive price increases although at a slower rate than May.
ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices
June
5th, 2007
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
66.4 61.5 63.5 N/A
ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices
May
3rd, 2007
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
63.5 59.5 63.3 N/A
The report cites continuing concern on rising fuel and energy costs.