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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 44.0 | 45.1 | 43.7 | N/A | ||
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For May
Bus. Activity: 42,4, pr. 45.2 (Apr), 44.1 (Mar), 40.2 (Feb), 44.2 (Jan),
The ISM non-manufacturing index rose to 44 for the May period, but that increase was slight compared to April's figure, and below the 45 reading expected by economists. The index measures the service sector, which amounts for a large amount of US economic activity. The index has been below the 50 level, which separates contraction from expansion, since October. The new orders index declined too 44.4 from 47.0, while employment though increasing to 39.0, was still in very contractionary territory. Prices meanwhile, though still falling, rose to 46.9 showing that inflation can pick up. The release is a mixed bag since it did not meet expectations. The recent run of data has given investors and traders a sense that positive economic activity could return this summer. This release does not change the perception either way, it wasn't better than expected meaning recovery is close, but since the figure was lower than expected it could mean a more gradual return to growth. |
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| 9/4 | 10/3 | 11/5 | 12/3 | 1/6 | 2/4 | 3/4 | 4/3 | 5/5 | 6/3 | ||
| Actual | 50.6 | 50.2 | 44.4 | 37.3 | 40.6 | 42.9 | 41.6 | 40.8 | 43.7 | 44.0 | |
| Forecast | 49.4 | 50.0 | 47.3 | 42.5 | 36.9 | 39.1 | 41.2 | 41.9 | 42.1 | 45.1 | |
| Previous | 49.5 | 50.6 | 50.2 | 44.4 | 37.3 | 40.1 | 42.9 | 41.6 | 40.8 | 43.7 | |
| Revised From | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 40.6 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 70.7 | 69.8 | 72.2 | N/A |
| 5/3 | 6/5 | 7/5 | 8/3 | 9/6 | 10/3 | 11/5 | 12/5 | 1/4 | 2/5 | ||
| Actual | 63.5 | 66.4 | 65.5 | 61.3 | 58.6 | 66.1 | 63.5 | 76.5 | 72.2 | 70.7 | |
| Forecast | 59.5 | 61.5 | 64.0 | 64.0 | 60.8 | 57.0 | 67.0 | 63.0 | 73.5 | 69.8 | |
| Previous | 63.3 | 63.5 | 66.4 | 65.5 | 61.3 | 58.6 | 66.1 | 63.5 | 76.5 | 72.2 | |
| Revised From | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 43.7 | 42.1 | 40.8 | N/A | ||
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For April
Bus. Activity: 45.2, pr. 44.1 (Mar), 40.2 (Feb), 44.2 (Jan), 39.6 (Dec),
In another sign that the US recession may be easing, the timeliest measure of the services sector showed contraction in the sector slowing. The ISM index rose to 43.7 in April from March's 40.8, though any level below 50 still represents a shrinking sector. The reading beat expectations. The services sector makes up almost 90% of the economy, so its important to monitor. Increases in consumer spending, rising confidence, and stable home sales are giving some observers the indication that the US is nearing a bottom, but any recovery will be tempered by a high unemployment rate, still falling home prices, and a weak financial sector that is limiting its lending. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 40.8 | 41.9 | 41.6 | N/A | ||
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For March
Bus. Activity: 44.1, pr. 40.2 (Feb), 44.2 (Jan), 39.6 (Dec), 37.3 (Nov),
The ISM non-manufacturing index came in below expectations showing a faster pace of contraction compared to February. The news, along with today's jobs data, can temper some of the optimism seen recently regarding the US economy. New orders and employment both showed sharper contraction.
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 41.6 | 41.2 | 42.9 | N/A | ||
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For February
Bus. Activity: 40.2, pr. 44.2 (Jan), 39.6 (Dec), 37.3 (Nov), 44.2 (Oct),
From the Release: "The NMI (Non-Manufacturing Index) registered 41.6 percent in February, 1.3 percentage points lower than the 42.9 percent registered in January, indicating contraction in the non-manufacturing sector for the fifth consecutive month at a slightly faster rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index decreased 4 percentage points to 40.2 percent. The New Orders Index decreased 0.9 percentage point to 40.7 percent, and the Employment Index increased 2.9 percentage points to 37.3 percent. The Prices Index increased 5.6 percentage points to 48.1 percent in February, indicating a slower decrease in prices from January. According to the NMI, one non-manufacturing industry reported growth in February. Respondents are concerned about the soft market conditions, the negative outlook for employment and the overall state of the economy." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 42.9 | 39.1 | 40.1 | 40.6 | ||
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For January
Business Activity: 44.2, pr. 39.6, 37.3 (Nov), 44.2 (Oct), 52.1 (Sep),
Non-manufacturing activity contracted at a slower pace in the US in January as the ISM measure rose to 42.9 from 40.1 in December. Anything below 50 is considered contraction in the sector, so this makes the fourth month that the services sector has seen activity decline. The sub-gauges for business activity, new orders and prices all rose compared to last month, though employment weakened. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 40.6 | 36.9 | 37.3 | N/A | ||
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For December
Business Activity: 39.6, pr. 37.3 (Nov), 44.2 (Oct), 52.1 (Sep), 51.6 (Aug)
The index that measures the US services sector surprised forecasts and improved in December, climbing to 40.6 from 37.3. Though a measure below 50 still means contraction in the sector, it does suggest the pace of contraction is slowing, the first sign needed to see some stabilization and then a bottom. A breakdown of the sub-gauges is presented below.
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 37.3 | 42.5 | 44.4 | N/A | ||
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For November
Business Activity Index: 37.3, pr. 44.2 (Oct), 52.1 (Sep), 51.6 (Aug)
From the release: "The NMI (Non-Manufacturing Index) registered 37.3 percent in November, 7.1 percentage points lower than the 44.4 percent registered in October, indicating contraction in the non-manufacturing sector for the second consecutive month. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index decreased 11.2 percentage points to 33 percent. The New Orders Index decreased 8.6 percentage points to 35.4 percent, and the Employment Index decreased 10.2 percentage points to 31.3 percent. These are the lowest levels for each of these indexes since they were first reported in 1997. The Prices Index decreased 16.8 percentage points to 36.6 percent in November, indicating a decrease in prices from October. This is the largest-ever one-month decline in the index and its lowest level since it was first reported in 1997. According to the NMI, one non-manufacturing industry reported growth in November. Respondents' comments reflect concern about the time line for the economy to stabilize and the impact it is having on discretionary spending and employment." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 44.4 | 47.3 | 50.2 | N/A | ||
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For October
Business Activity Index: 44.2 pr. 52.1 (Sep), 51.6 (Aug), 49.6 (Jul), 49.9 (Jun)
The services sector, which makes up about two-thirds of the GDP, contracted faster than economists expected while inflationary pressures are dissipating. The respondents expressed heightened concerns about the outlook of the economy. The overal ISM services index dropped to 44.4 in October versus 50.2 in September. Most of the sub-indexes declined, with a more pronounced deceleration in the employment index, and the prices index fell to the lowest since July 2003. "Special Questions" from the release: |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 50.2 | 50.0 | 50.6 | N/A | ||
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For September
Business Activity Index: 52.1, pr. 51.6 (Aug), 49.6 (Jul), 49.9 (Jun)
Activity in the US services sector expanded at a very modest pace in September,, with price pressures continuing to climb though at a slower pace than seen over the summer. The composite index came in at 50.2, with new orders climbing above the 50 boom-bust level and business activity improving as well. Employment fell further and the prices paid index was well above 50, though below its level in August. The data will act as a counterweight to the dismal manufacturing report seen earlier in the week. The services sector accounts for a much larger part of the US economy. "Respondents were positive about the reduction in fuel and commodity costs; but remain concerned about overall market conditions and the economy." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 50.6 | 49.4 | 49.5 | N/A | ||
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For August
Business Activity Index: 51.6, pr. 49.6 (Jul), 49.9 (Jun), 53.6
(May)
August services activity improved after barely contracting in July and June. The index was at the lowest point this year so far in February (44.6) and has been closer to the 50 boom-bust level since. Business, and new orders sub indexes improved, while emplyoment index fell to a faster contraction. The price index eased and reflects global stabilization of inflation in past couple of months. The greenback is ticking up immediately after the release. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 72.2 | 73.5 | 76.5 | N/A | ||
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For December.
Summary from Institute of Supply Management The growth in prices in the non-manufacturing sector increased at a slower pace than in November, but the 72.2 reading means that 72.2% of respondents faced higher prices compared to last month. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 76.5 | 63.0 | 63.5 | N/A | ||
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For November. See "ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices" for more comments. Prices increased for the 54th consecutive month, with this month showing a 13 percent point jump. Prices have been steadily gaining since August when this sub-gauge measured 58.6; in September it was 66.1; and in October it was 63.5. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 63.5 | 67.0 | 66.1 | N/A |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 66.1 | 57.0 | 58.6 | N/A | ||
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For September. Price pressures remain on the upside for the 52nd consecutive month. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 58.6 | 60.8 | 61.3 | N/A |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 61.3 | 64.0 | 65.5 | N/A |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 65.5 | 64.0 | 66.4 | N/A | ||
| This is the 49th month of consecutive price increases although at a slower rate than May. | |||||
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 66.4 | 61.5 | 63.5 | N/A |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 63.5 | 59.5 | 63.3 | N/A | ||
| The report cites continuing concern on rising fuel and energy costs. | |||||