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Indicator Digest

Services PMI
Services are measured by the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in the US, Euro-zone, UK and Australia. A level above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector, while a reading below 50 indicators contraction. The Index measures employment, production, new orders, supplier deliveries, and inventories. It is also one of the timeliest indicators, coming out near the beginning of the month.

Main Indicator: Services PMI

Most Recent Release

March
3rd, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
58.4 55.0 54.5 N/A

For February
Provided by: Markit
Official Release: PDF

From the Release: "Growth of the UK service sector recovered in February from January’s snow-related slowdown, rebounding markedly to the strongest for over three years. Higher activity was closely linked to a steeper gain in new business, amid reports of strengthened market conditions. Latest data also suggested that productivity continued to improve as employment again fell modestly. However, average input costs continued to rise markedly, offset only slightly by a marginal increase in output charges"

Table of Past Data

6/37/38/59/310/511/412/31/62/33/3
Actual51.751.653.254.155.356.956.656.854.458.4
Forecast49.451.751.953.954.655.457.156.856.655.0
Previous49.751.751.653.254.155.356.956.656.854.5
Revised FromN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A

Secondary Indicator: Index of Services 3m/3m

Most Recent Release

February
26th, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.5% 0.2% 0.1% N/A
For the 3 months through December
Provided by: Office of National Statistics

Table of Past Data

5/227/17/248/289/3010/2311/2512/231/262/26
Actual-1.2%-1.2%-1.0%-0.6%-0.2%-0.1%-0.1%-0.2%0.1%0.5%
Forecast-1.2%0.2%0.1%-0.6%-0.5%0.1%0.0%0.3%0.4%0.2%
Previous-1.3%-1.6%-1.2%-1.0%-0.6%-0.2%-0.1%-0.2%-0.2%0.1%
Revised From-1.2%-1.2%N/AN/AN/AN/AN/A-0.1%N/AN/A

Past Releases

Services PMI
February
3rd, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
54.4 56.6 56.8 N/A

For January
Provided by: Markit
Official Release: PDF

From the Release: "UK service sector growth stalled at the start of 2010 as snow-related disruptions undermined activity and new business. Rates of expansion of both variables were the slowest for five months, while there was a further (albeit modest) decline in employment.
The increase in VAT at the start of the year underpinned the strongest rise in input costs since October 2008 and also led to slightly higher output charges. January’s seasonally adjusted CIPS/Markit Business Activity Index posted above the 50.0 no-change mark for a ninth successive month. The index weakened somewhat since December, falling to 54.5 (from 56.8) and signalled the slowest rise in activity for five months."

Index of Services 3m/3m
January
26th, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.1% 0.4% -0.2% N/A
For the 3 months through November
Provided by: Office of National Statistics
Services PMI
January
6th, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
56.8 56.8 56.6 N/A

For December
Provided by: Markit
Official Release: PDF

From the release: "The UK service sector ended 2009 on a positive note, with growth of both activity and new business improving since November. Expectations for the coming year remained high and, despite declining again, employment fell at the slowest pace for nearly a year-and-a-half. Backlogs and employment fell at slower rates. Cost inflation accelerated to steepest in over a year "

Index of Services 3m/3m
December
23rd, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-0.2% 0.3% -0.2% -0.1%
For the 3 months through October
Provided by: Office of National Statistics
Services PMI
December
3rd, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
56.6 57.1 56.9 N/A

For November
Provided by: Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply (CIPS) (sub'n req'd)

Index of Services 3m/3m
November
25th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-0.1% 0.0% -0.1% N/A
For the 3 months through September
Provided by: Office of National Statistics
Services PMI
November
4th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
56.9 55.4 55.3 N/A

For October
Provided by: Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply (CIPS) (sub'n req'd)

Index of Services 3m/3m
October
23rd, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-0.1% 0.1% -0.2% N/A
For the 3 months through August
Provided by: Office of National Statistics
Services PMI
October
5th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
55.3 54.6 54.1 N/A

For September
Provided by: Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply (sub'n req'd)

The UK services sector expanded at its fastest pace in 2 years in September with the services PMI climbing to 55.3. In addition firms were more optimistic about the next 12 months than at any time since April 2007. The data counters weak manufacturing and construction reports for the September period, though it does suggest that growth returned to the economy as the services sector makes up a bigger portion of the overall economy. The data also shows that the Bank of England attempts to stimulate and prop up the economy though its quantitative easing policy may be bearing fruit. 

The expectations index rose to 75.0 from 72.3, the new orders index rose at its quickest rate in 19 months, job losses continued to a 17th consecutive month, while prices continued to drop increasing the period of deflation to 11 months. 

Index of Services 3m/3m
September
30th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-0.2% -0.5% -0.6% N/A
For the 3 months through July
Provided by: Office of National Statistics
Services PMI
September
3rd, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
54.1 53.9 53.2 N/A

For July
Provided by: Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply (sub'n req'd)

The UK services sector remained in expansionary territory, with the PMI index rising to 54.1. That is the highest the index has been in nearly two years. There was a solid gain in new business, though part of that was driven by ongoing price discounting. There was also an increase in work on existing contracts and backlogs fell at a steep and accelerated rate. Expectations for the coming year moved to a two-year high. 

Index of Services 3m/3m
August
28th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-0.6% -0.6% -1.0% N/A
Provided by: Office of National Statistics
Services PMI
August
5th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
53.2 51.9 51.6 N/A

For July
Provided by: Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply (sub'n req'd)

Index of Services 3m/3m
July
24th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-1.0% 0.1% -1.2% N/A
Provided by: Office of National Statistics
Services PMI
July
3rd, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
51.6 51.7 51.7 N/A

For June
Provided by: Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply (sub'n req'd)

Index of Services 3m/3m
July
1st, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-1.2% 0.2% -1.6% -1.2%
3 Months Through April
Provided by: Office of National Statistics
Services PMI
June
3rd, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
51.7 49.4 49.7 N/A

For May
Provided by: Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply (sub'n req'd)

The UK services PMI rose above 50 for the first time in a year in May, climbing to 51.7. That result surprised forecasts that had called for another month of contraction. Its another data point that suggests the UK economy has passed the worst of its recession. The housing market has seen prices stabilize somewhat and mortgage lending increase, while consumer confidence is rebounding as well. The manufacturing and construction sector PMI's for May hit 12-month and 13-month highs respectively. All of this positive news has boosted the value of the Pound, which has hit its highest level against the Euro and Dollar in half a year, though today the GBP/USD pair saw a strong pullback from the 1.6660 area. The Bank of England meets tomorrow and will likely take a wait and see approach, which means they will not expand their 125 billion pound asset-purchase plan. 

Index of Services 3m/3m
May
22nd, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-1.2% -1.2% -1.3% -1.2%

3 Months Through Mar
Provided by: Office of National Statistics