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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 51.7 | 49.4 | 49.7 | N/A | ||
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For May
The UK services PMI rose above 50 for the first time in a year in May, climbing to 51.7. That result surprised forecasts that had called for another month of contraction. Its another data point that suggests the UK economy has passed the worst of its recession. The housing market has seen prices stabilize somewhat and mortgage lending increase, while consumer confidence is rebounding as well. The manufacturing and construction sector PMI's for May hit 12-month and 13-month highs respectively. All of this positive news has boosted the value of the Pound, which has hit its highest level against the Euro and Dollar in half a year, though today the GBP/USD pair saw a strong pullback from the 1.6660 area. The Bank of England meets tomorrow and will likely take a wait and see approach, which means they will not expand their 125 billion pound asset-purchase plan. |
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| 9/3 | 10/3 | 11/5 | 12/3 | 1/6 | 2/4 | 3/4 | 4/3 | 5/6 | 6/3 | ||
| Actual | 49.2 | 46.0 | 42.4 | 40.1 | 40.2 | 42.5 | 43.2 | 45.5 | 48.7 | 51.7 | |
| Forecast | 47.0 | 48.0 | 44.5 | 41.2 | 39.0 | 40.3 | 41.6 | 43.6 | 46.3 | 49.4 | |
| Previous | 47.4 | 49.2 | 46.0 | 42.4 | 40.1 | 40.2 | 42.5 | 43.2 | 45.5 | 49.7 | |
| Revised From | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -1.2% | 0.2% | -1.6% | -1.2% | ||
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3 Months Through April
Provided by: Office of National Statistics |
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| 8/22 | 10/1 | 10/24 | 11/26 | 12/23 | 1/23 | 2/25 | 4/24 | 5/22 | 7/1 | ||
| Actual | 0.2% | 0.0% | -0.3% | -0.4% | -0.2% | -0.4% | -0.9% | -1.2% | -1.2% | -1.2% | |
| Forecast | 0.4% | 0.1% | -0.1% | -0.4% | -0.6% | -0.6% | -1.0% | -1.2% | -1.2% | 0.2% | |
| Previous | 0.4% | 0.2% | -0.1% | -0.3% | -0.5% | -0.3% | -0.5% | -1.3% | -1.3% | -1.6% | |
| Revised From | N/A | N/A | 0.0% | N/A | -0.4% | -0.2% | -0.4% | N/A | -1.2% | -1.2% | |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -1.2% | -1.2% | -1.3% | -1.2% | ||
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3 Months Through Mar
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 48.7 | 46.3 | 45.5 | N/A | ||
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For April
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -1.2% | -1.2% | -1.3% | N/A | ||
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3 Months Through February
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 45.5 | 43.6 | 43.2 | N/A | ||
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For March
The UK services sector rose to 45.5, beating forecasts and adding another piece of positive data to come out of the UK recently. Though the figure still shows contraction in the sectors since its below the 50 boom-bust level, the pace of the contraction is slowing, a positive sign. Earlier in the week, manufacturing data also came in above expectations, and with some housing data showing a slight recovery in that sector, the Pound has been a strong performer. That seems justified by the data as the steps the central bank has taken - slashing interest rates and commencing quantitative easing - may be starting to show results. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 43.2 | 41.6 | 42.5 | N/A | ||
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For February
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.9% | -1.0% | -0.5% | -0.4% | ||
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3 Months Through December
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 42.5 | 40.3 | 40.2 | N/A | ||
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For January
Activity in the UK services sector contracted yet again, but the pace of contraction eased as the Services PMI indicator rose to 42.5 from December's 40.2. The result is still mired near record lows, but surprised forecasts, as did the Manufacturing PMI release on Tuesday. Though you can't call it a bottom by any means, the news, along with a pick up in mortgage lending, is showing at least some positive news from a UK economy which has been one of the hardest hit since the flare up of the credit crisis. Still, 2009 looks like a very poor year for the UK economy, as it tries to find a bottom and recover from its severe recession. A report today from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) predicted that growth will contract 2.7% for the year, with the first positive growth numbers coming in the 4th quarter. The Bank of England meets tomorrow, and is expected to bring interest rates down to 1% from their record low of 1.5%. With rates so low, the government has given the bank powers to buy bonds and commercial paper, which gives policy makers another tool to fight the recession. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.4% | -0.6% | -0.3% | -0.2% | ||
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3 Months Through November
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 40.2 | 39.0 | 40.1 | N/A | ||
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For December
UK services contracted at close to the fastest pace in at least a dozen years as the PMI index edged up just slightly to 40.2 in December from 40.1 in November. Levels below 50 indicate contraction. In a silver lining to the data, expectations were for an deeper contraction in the sector, so though its too early to tell, the data may suggest the pace of decline may have stabilized. That would be the first sign of a bottom. Other data today showed housing prices plummeting and consumer confidence hitting a new low, so the UK economy is in no way out of the woods. Expectations are for a 50 to 75 basis point cut from the Bank of England on Thursday. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.2% | -0.6% | -0.5% | -0.4% | ||
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3 Months Through October
From the Release: "Services output fell by 0.2 per cent in the three months to October compared with the previous three months and follows a fall of 0.5 per cent in the three months to September. This is the fourth consecutive three months on previous three months decrease. Services output between September and October rose by 0.6 per cent. The most significant increase was in business services and finance." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 40.1 | 41.2 | 42.4 | N/A | ||
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For November
Much like the Eurozone services PMI, The British services PMI was revised down and is the lowest since it's inception in 1996. The employment and confidence subindexes also fell to their all time lows. The BoE is seen to cut rates by 100 basis points. Data such as today's work justify this cut, and maybe even a more aggressive move. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.3% | N/A | ||
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Through September
Provided by: Office of National Statistics |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 42.4 | 44.5 | 46.0 | N/A | ||
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For October
The UK services PMI undershot expectations, showing larger than expected contraction in the sector. The 42.4 reading is the lowest this survey has been since its inception 12-years ago. Services account for 74% of economic activity, and such a steep slowdown may pressure the Bank of England to cut rates by a larger margin than the 50 basis points expected coming into the week. The MPC has already cut rates 4 times since December to bring rate down to 4.5%. The UK economy was already struggling prior to the intensification of the credit crisis in late-September and now anemic lending has combined with weak consumer confidence and a falling housing market to put the country towards recession. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.3% | -0.1% | -0.1% | 0.0% | ||
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Through August
Provided by: Office of National Statistics |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 46.0 | 48.0 | 49.2 | N/A | ||
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For September
The Services PMI fell more than expected in the UK in September, declining to 46.0 from August's 49.2. It's the 5th month that the sector has contracted, and is the lowest level since records began 12 years ago. Combined with the weak manufacturing report earlier in the week, all signs are pointing to the Bank of England cutting rates in its meeting next week. Today's report showed new business crumbled, confidence slid and the pace of job cutting increased. The services sector accounts for 75% of the UK economy. Among the hardest hit were hotels and restaurants as consumers cut back on unnecessary spending in these tough economic times. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | N/A | ||
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Through July
From the Release: "Services output was unchanged in the three months to July compared with the three months to April. This is the first time since August 2002 that there has been no increase in the three-months-on-previous-three-months headline rate." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 49.2 | 47.0 | 47.4 | N/A | ||
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For August
Activity in the services sector contracted for the 4th straight month, but the PMI did not continue to fall lower as was forecast. Instead, the PMI increased from July's 47.4 to register a 49.2 for August. The data is similar to the manufacturing PMI which also, though in contraction for a 4th straight month, surprised forecasts on the upside. Both sectors are facing slower growth as the economy deals with the global credit crunch, low consumer confidence, high oil prices and slowing growth in the US. The Pound has been falling sharply this past month. The bank of England meets tomorrow, but even though it has cut rates 3 times since December, they are unlikely to further reduce rates until inflation comes down from its high levels. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | N/A | ||
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Through June
Provided by: Office of National Statistics |
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