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Indicator Digest

Services PMI
Services are measured by the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in the US, Euro-zone, UK and Australia. A level above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector, while a reading below 50 indicators contraction. The Index measures employment, production, new orders, supplier deliveries, and inventories. It is also one of the timeliest indicators, coming out near the beginning of the month.

Main Indicator: Services PMI

Most Recent Release

June
23rd, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
44.5 45.8 44.8 N/A

Preliminary for June

Germany: 44.3, pr. 46.0 (May), 43.8 (Apr), 42.3 (Mar), 45.2 (Jan),
46.6 (Dec), 45.1 (Nov), 48.3 (Oct), 50.2 (Sep), 51.4 (Aug), 53.1 (Jul)
France: 47.5, pr. 47.6 (May), 46.5 (Apr), 43.6 (Mar), 42.6 (Jan),
40.6 (Dec), 46.2 (Nov), 47.5 (Oct), 50.1 (Sep), 48.0 (Aug), 47.5 (Jul)
Italy:  pr. 42.0 (Apr), 39.1 (Mar), pr. 41.1 (Jan), 40.3 (Dec), 39.5 (Nov),
45.7 (Oct), 49.4 (Sep), 48.5 (Aug), 45.6 (Jul)

The services PMI held around its level from May, inching down to 44.5 for June, preliminary data showed. Germany's PMI slid to 44.3 from 46 in May.  Though the Euro-zone economy seems to be stabilizing following a sharp contraction in the 1st quarter, return to actual growth may still be several quarters away. The ECB has lowered rates to a record low, and has announced that it will be willing to start buying covered bonds in an attempt to stimulate the economy.

Next Release Date: July 03rd 2009, 4:00 EST

Table of Past Data

2/42/203/43/244/34/235/65/216/36/23
Actual42.238.939.240.140.943.143.844.744.844.5
Forecast42.542.638.939.240.141.343.144.644.745.8
Previous42.542.238.939.240.140.943.143.844.744.8
Revised FromN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A

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Past Releases

June
3rd, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
44.8 44.7 44.7 N/A

Final for May

Germany: 45.2, prel. 46.0, pr. 43.8 (Apr), 42.3 (Mar), 45.2 (Jan),
46.6 (Dec), 45.1 (Nov), 48.3 (Oct), 50.2 (Sep), 51.4 (Aug), 53.1 (Jul)
France: 48.3, prel. 47.6, pr. 46.5 (Apr), 43.6 (Mar), 42.6 (Jan), 40.6 (Dec),
46.2 (Nov), 47.5 (Oct), 50.1 (Sep), 48.0 (Aug), 47.5 (Jul)
Italy: 43.1, prel. 42.0, pr. 39.1 (Mar), pr. 41.1 (Jan), 40.3 (Dec),
39.5 (Nov), 45.7 (Oct), 49.4 (Sep), 48.5 (Aug), 45.6 (Jul)

May
21st, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
44.7 44.6 43.8 N/A

Preliminary for May

Germany: 46.0, pr. 43.8 (Apr), 42.3 (Mar), 45.2 (Jan), 46.6 (Dec),
45.1 (Nov), 48.3 (Oct), 50.2 (Sep), 51.4 (Aug), 53.1 (Jul)
France: 47.6, pr. 46.5 (Apr), 43.6 (Mar), 42.6 (Jan), 40.6 (Dec),
46.2 (Nov), 47.5 (Oct), 50.1 (Sep), 48.0 (Aug), 47.5 (Jul)
Italy: 42.0, pr. 39.1 (Mar), pr. 41.1 (Jan), 40.3 (Dec), 39.5 (Nov),
45.7 (Oct), 49.4 (Sep), 48.5 (Aug), 45.6 (Jul)

The Euro-zone services sector contracted at a slower pace in May as the Services PMI rose to 44.7. Though any reading below 50 means the sector is shrinking, its the highest reading for the indicator in the last 8 months. It adds to eveidence that the worst of the recession may be over, as interest rate cuts and stimulus packages filter through into the economy. 

May
6th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
43.8 43.1 43.1 N/A

Final for April

Germany: prel. 43.5, pr. 42.3 (Mar), 45.2 (Jan), 46.6 (Dec), 45.1 (Nov),
48.3 (Oct), 50.2 (Sep), 51.4 (Aug), 53.1 (Jul)
France: prel. 46.3, pr. 43.6 (Mar), 42.6 (Jan), 40.6 (Dec), 46.2 (Nov),
47.5 (Oct), 50.1 (Sep), 48.0 (Aug), 47.5 (Jul)
Italy: pr. 39.1 (Mar), pr. 41.1 (Jan), 40.3 (Dec), 39.5 (Nov), 45.7 (Oct),
49.4 (Sep), 48.5 (Aug), 45.6 (Jul)

April
23rd, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
43.1 41.3 40.9 N/A

Preliminary for April

Germany: 43.5, pr. 42.3 (Mar), 45.2 (Jan), 46.6 (Dec), 45.1 (Nov),
48.3 (Oct), 50.2 (Sep), 51.4 (Aug), 53.1 (Jul)
France: 46.3, pr. 43.6 (Mar), 42.6 (Jan), 40.6 (Dec), 46.2 (Nov),
47.5 (Oct), 50.1 (Sep), 48.0 (Aug), 47.5 (Jul)
Italy: pr. 39.1 (Mar), pr. 41.1 (Jan), 40.3 (Dec), 39.5 (Nov), 45.7 (Oct),
49.4 (Sep), 48.5 (Aug), 45.6 (Jul)

The European services sector contracted at the slowest pace in six months in April, a welcome sign that may mean economic activity has stabilized, and that the worst of the Euro-zone recession may be over. The services PMI rose to 43.1, beating forecasts. Increased unemployment has hurt consumer confidence and spending, leading to weaker activity in the services sector, and as factories cut back on industrial production, services that cater to the production process have been reduced. Today's flash data on the services and manufacturing sectors is a good beginning to the 2nd quarter, and ECB officials would love nothing more than to see activity stabilizing and improving.

April
3rd, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
40.9 40.1 40.1 N/A

Final Version for March

Germany: 42.3, prel. 41.6, pr. 45.2 (Jan), 46.6 (Dec), 45.1 (Nov),
48.3 (Oct), 50.2 (Sep), 51.4 (Aug), 53.1 (Jul)
France: 43.6, prel. 40.1, pr. 42.6 (Jan), 40.6 (Dec), 46.2 (Nov), 47.5 (Oct),
50.1 (Sep), 48.0 (Aug), 47.5 (Jul)
Italy: 39.1, pr. 41.1 (Jan), 40.3 (Dec), 39.5 (Nov), 45.7 (Oct), 49.4 (Sep),
48.5 (Aug), 45.6 (Jul)

March
24th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
40.1 39.2 39.2 N/A

Preliminary Version for March

Germany: 41.7, forecast 41.0, pr. 41.3 (Feb), 45.2 (Jan), 46.6 (Dec), 45.1 (Nov),
48.3 (Oct), 50.2 (Sep), 51.4 (Aug), 53.1 (Jul)
France: 42.9, pr. 40.2 (Feb), 42.6 (Jan), 40.6 (Dec), 46.2 (Nov), 47.5 (Oct),
50.1 (Sep), 48.0 (Aug), 47.5 (Jul)
Italy: pr. 37.9 (Feb), 41.1 (Jan), 40.3 (Dec), 39.5 (Nov), 45.7 (Oct),
49.4 (Sep), 48.5 (Aug), 45.6 (Jul)

The services sector contracted at a slower pace in March compared to February, preliminary data showed today. It's the 10th straight month that both the manufacturing and services sectors have contracted. The PMI index came in at 40.1 compared to 39.2 in February. The 50 level separates expansion from contraction. This year will prove to be a difficult one says ECB President Trichet, and a progressive gradual recovery will come in 2010. 

March
4th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
39.2 38.9 38.9 N/A

Final Version for February

Germany: prel. 41.6, pr. 45.2 (Jan), 46.6 (Dec), 45.1 (Nov), 48.3 (Oct),
50.2 (Sep), 51.4 (Aug), 53.1 (Jul)
France: prel. 40.1, pr. 42.6 (Jan), 40.6 (Dec), 46.2 (Nov), 47.5 (Oct),
50.1 (Sep), 48.0 (Aug), 47.5 (Jul)
Italy: pr. 41.1 (Jan), 40.3 (Dec), 39.5 (Nov), 45.7 (Oct), 49.4 (Sep),
48.5 (Aug), 45.6 (Jul)

February
20th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
38.9 42.6 42.2 N/A

Preliminary Version for February

Germany: 41.6, pr. 45.2 (Jan), 46.6 (Dec), 45.1 (Nov), 48.3 (Oct),
50.2 (Sep), 51.4 (Aug), 53.1 (Jul)
France: 40.1, pr. 42.6 (Jan), 40.6 (Dec), 46.2 (Nov), 47.5 (Oct),
50.1 (Sep), 48.0 (Aug), 47.5 (Jul)
Italy: pr. 41.1 (Jan), 40.3 (Dec), 39.5 (Nov), 45.7 (Oct), 49.4 (Sep),
48.5 (Aug), 45.6 (Jul)

Europe's services PMI contracted by a record amount in February, preliminary data showed. The PMI fell to 38.9 from 42.2, with any figure below 50 signifying contraction. The countries that make up the Euro-zone are facing the worst recession in more than six decades, and with growth expected to contract 1.9% this year. The ECB has signaled that it will lower rates to a record low in its March meeting. Both consumer and business spending is being curtailed. Consumers are facing a tougher labor market, and deteriorating economic conditions including falling stock prices. Companies, seeing weaker sales are cutting their output and investment spending in anticipation of leaner times ahead. They are also stepping up their pace of firings, which is adding to weak confidence among households. 

February
4th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
42.2 42.5 42.5 N/A

Final Version for January

Germany: pr. 46.6 (Dec), 45.1 (Nov), 48.3 (Oct), 50.2 (Sep), 51.4 (Aug),
53.1 (Jul)
France: pr. 40.6 (Dec), 46.2 (Nov), 47.5 (Oct), 50.1 (Sep), 48.0 (Aug),
47.5 (Jul)
Italy: pr. 40.3 (Dec), 39.5 (Nov), 45.7 (Oct), 49.4 (Sep), 48.5 (Aug),
45.6 (Jul)