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Indicator Digest

Services PMI
Services are measured by the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in the US, Euro-zone, UK and Australia. A level above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector, while a reading below 50 indicators contraction. The Index measures employment, production, new orders, supplier deliveries, and inventories. It is also one of the timeliest indicators, coming out near the beginning of the month.

Main Indicator: Services PMI

Most Recent Release

March
3rd, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
51.8 52.0 52.0 N/A
Final Version for February
Provided by: Markit
Official Release: PDF

Germany: 51.9, prel. 51.7, pr. 52.2 (Jan), 52.7 (Dec), 51.4 (Nov),
50.7 (Oct), 52.1 (Sep), 54.1 (Aug), 48.1 (Jul), 44.3 (Jun), 45.2 (May)
France: 54.6, prel. 54.7, pr. 56.3 (Jan), 58.7 (Dec), 60.9 (Nov),
57.7 (Oct), 53.2 (Sep), 48.9 (Aug), 45.5 (Jul), 47.2 (Jun), 48.3 (May)
Italy: 50.8, pr. 50.9 (Jan), 53.9 (Dec), 49.8 (Nov), 48.5 (Sep),
44.5 (Jul), 42.3 (May), 43.1 (Apr), 39.1 (Mar), 41.1 (Jan), 40.3 (Dec)

From the Release: "The final Eurozone Services Business Activity Index posted 51.8 in February, down from 52.5 in January, to signal an increase in activity for the sixth successive month. However, the rate of growth was only modest and the weakest since last September. It was also below the earlier flash estimate. The big-3 of Germany, France and Italy were the only countries covered by the survey to register an increase in services activity in February, with France recording the fastest growth for the sixth month in a row. However, in a further sign that the recovery in services is failing to gain the traction currently seen in manufacturing, rates of expansion eased across all three countries. Meanwhile, the downturns in Spain and Ireland continued. Spain registered an accelerated rate of decline, while Ireland posted a reduction in activity for the 25th month running (although the pace of contraction eased noticeably to its weakest during that period)."

Table of Past Data

10/2311/411/2312/312/161/61/212/32/193/3
Actual52.352.653.253.053.753.652.352.551.751.8
Forecast51.252.352.953.353.353.753.852.352.552.0
Previous50.952.352.653.253.053.753.652.352.252.0
Revised FromN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A

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Past Releases

February
19th, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
51.7 52.5 52.2 N/A
Flash Version for February
Provided by: Markit
Official Release: PDF

Germany: 51.7, pr. 52.2 (Jan), 52.7 (Dec), 51.4 (Nov), 50.7 (Oct),
52.1 (Sep), 54.1 (Aug), 48.1 (Jul), 44.3 (Jun), 45.2 (May), 43.8 (Apr)
France: 54.7, pr. 56.3 (Jan), 58.7 (Dec), 60.9 (Nov), 57.7 (Oct),
53.2 (Sep), 48.9 (Aug), 45.5 (Jul), 47.2 (Jun), 48.3 (May), 46.5 (Apr)
Italy: pr. 50.9 (Jan), 53.9 (Dec), 49.8 (Nov), 48.5 (Sep), 44.5 (Jul),
42.3 (May), 43.1 (Apr), 39.1 (Mar), 41.1 (Jan), 40.3 (Dec), 39.5 (Nov)

February
3rd, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
52.5 52.3 52.3 N/A

Advance (Flash) Version for January
Provided by: Markit
Official Release: PDF

Germany: 52.2, prel. 51.2, pr. 52.7 (Dec), 51.4 (Nov), 50.7 (Oct),
52.1 (Sep), 54.1 (Aug), 48.1 (Jul), 44.3 (Jun), 45.2 (May), 43.8 (Apr)
France: 56.3, prel. 57.0, pr. 58.7 (Dec), 60.9 (Nov), 57.7 (Oct),
53.2 (Sep), 48.9 (Aug), 45.5 (Jul), 47.2 (Jun), 48.3 (May), 46.5 (Apr)
Italy: 50.9, pr. 53.9 (Dec), 49.8 (Nov), 48.5 (Sep), 44.5 (Jul),
42.3 (May), 43.1 (Apr), 39.1 (Mar), 41.1 (Jan), 40.3 (Dec), 39.5 (Nov)

From the Release: "At 52.5 in January, the final Eurozone Services Business Activity Index signalled an expansion of the service sector for the fifth consecutive month. Although the index was down from the 25-month high of 53.6 posted in December, it was slightly above the earlier flash estimate of 52.3. France (which recorded the strongest growth), Germany and Italy all reported increased levels of business activity in January, but rates of expansion eased in each of these nations. Meanwhile, the downturns in the Spanish and Irish service sectors continued. Ireland was the weakest performer overall, with its rate of decline accelerating sharply to the quickest since last July. The contraction in Spain was the least marked during the current 25-month period of decline."

January
21st, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
52.3 53.8 53.6 N/A

Advance (Flash) Version for January
Provided by: Markit
Official Release: PDF

Germany: 51.2, pr. 52.7 (Dec), 51.4 (Nov), 50.7 (Oct), 52.1 (Sep),
54.1 (Aug), 48.1 (Jul), 44.3 (Jun), 45.2 (May), 43.8 (Apr), 42.3 (Mar)
France: 57.0, pr. 58.7 (Dec), 60.9 (Nov), 57.7 (Oct), 53.2 (Sep),
48.9 (Aug), 45.5 (Jul), 47.2 (Jun), 48.3 (May), 46.5 (Apr), 43.6 (Mar)
Italy: pr. 53.9 (Dec), 49.8 (Nov), 48.5 (Sep), 44.5 (Jul), 42.3 (May),
43.1 (Apr), 39.1 (Mar), 41.1 (Jan), 40.3 (Dec), 39.5 (Nov), 45.7 (Oct)
January
6th, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
53.6 53.7 53.7 N/A

For December
Provided by: Markit
Official Release: PDF

Germany: 52.7, pr. 51.4 (Nov), 50.7 (Oct), 52.1 (Sep), 54.1 (Aug),
48.1 (Jul), 44.3 (Jun), 45.2 (May), 43.8 (Apr), 42.3 (Mar), 45.2 (Jan)
France: 58.7, pr. 60.9 (Nov), 57.7 (Oct), 53.2 (Sep), 48.9 (Aug),
45.5 (Jul), 47.2 (Jun), 48.3 (May), 46.5 (Apr), 43.6 (Mar), 42.6 (Jan)
Italy: 53.9, pr. 49.8 (Nov), 48.5 (Sep), 44.5 (Jul), 42.3 (May),
43.1 (Apr), 39.1 (Mar), 41.1 (Jan), 40.3 (Dec), 39.5 (Nov), 45.7 (Oct) 

From the Release: "The final Eurozone Services Business Activity Index posted 53.6 in December, up from 53.0 in November.  The index was slightly lower than the earlier flash estimate of 53.7, but confirmed that the rate of growth of euro area services was the fastest since November 2007. Confidence rises for first time in three months and employment fell more sharply than indicated by flash data."

December
16th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
53.7 53.3 53.0 N/A
Flash Version for December
December
3rd, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
53.0 53.3 53.2 N/A

Final Version for November

Germany: 51.4, prel. 51.5, pr. 50.7 (Oct), 52.1 (Sep), 54.1 (Aug),
48.1 (Jul), 44.3 (Jun), 45.2 (May), 43.8 (Apr), 42.3 (Mar), 45.2 (Jan)
France: 60.9, prel. 60.4, pr. 57.7 (Oct), 53.2 (Sep), 48.9 (Aug),
45.5 (Jul), 47.2 (Jun), 48.3 (May), 46.5 (Apr), 43.6 (Mar), 42.6 (Jan)
Italy: 49.8, pr. 48.5 (Sep), 44.5 (Jul), 42.3 (May), 43.1 (Apr),
39.1 (Mar), 41.1 (Jan), 40.3 (Dec), 39.5 (Nov), 45.7 (Oct)

November
23rd, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
53.2 52.9 52.6 N/A

Preliminary Version for November

Germany: 51.5, pr. 50.7 (Oct), 52.1 (Sep), 54.1 (Aug), 48.1 (Jul),
44.3 (Jun), 45.2 (May), 43.8 (Apr), 42.3 (Mar), 45.2 (Jan), 46.6 (Dec)
France: 60.4, pr. 57.7 (Oct), 53.2 (Sep), 48.9 (Aug), 45.5 (Jul),
47.2 (Jun), 48.3 (May), 46.5 (Apr), 43.6 (Mar), 42.6 (Jan), 40.6 (Dec)
Italy: pr. 48.5 (Sep), 44.5 (Jul), 42.3 (May), 43.1 (Apr),
39.1 (Mar), 41.1 (Jan), 40.3 (Dec), 39.5 (Nov), 45.7 (Oct)

The Euro-zone saw its services sector PMI rise to 53.2 in November from 52.6 in October, according to preliminary data. It's the third month that the index has been above the 50 level which separates contraction from expansion, and is the highest its been since November 2007. The figure also beat forecasts. France saw its services sector PMI climb to 60.4 from 57.7, while Germany increased to 51.5 from 50.7. Still, the chief economist at Markit which puts out the release, said that while the euro-zone economy will show growth in the 4th quarter, the data suggests that the third quarter may have been a peak and that there will be subdued growth as we head into next year.  

November
4th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
52.6 52.3 52.3 N/A

Final Version for October

Germany: pr. 52.1 (Sep), 54.1 (Aug), 48.1 (Jul), 44.3 (Jun),
45.2 (May), 43.8 (Apr), 42.3 (Mar), 45.2 (Jan), 46.6 (Dec)
France: pr. 53.2 (Sep), 48.9 (Aug), 45.5 (Jul), 47.2 (Jun),
48.3 (May), 46.5 (Apr), 43.6 (Mar), 42.6 (Jan), 40.6 (Dec)
Italy: pr. 48.5 (Sep), 44.5 (Jul), 42.3 (May), 43.1 (Apr),
39.1 (Mar), 41.1 (Jan), 40.3 (Dec), 39.5 (Nov), 45.7 (Oct)
October
23rd, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
52.3 51.2 50.9 N/A

Preliminary Version for October

Germany: forecast 52.5, pr. 52.1 (Sep), 54.1 (Aug), 48.1 (Jul),
44.3 (Jun), 45.2 (May), 43.8 (Apr), 42.3 (Mar), 45.2 (Jan), 46.6 (Dec)
France: forecast 53.6, pr. 53.2 (Sep), 48.9 (Aug), 45.5 (Jul),
47.2 (Jun), 48.3 (May), 46.5 (Apr), 43.6 (Mar), 42.6 (Jan), 40.6 (Dec)
Italy: pr. 48.5 (Sep), 44.5 (Jul), 42.3 (May), 43.1 (Apr), 39.1 (Mar),
41.1 (Jan), 40.3 (Dec), 39.5 (Nov), 45.7 (Oct), 49.4 (Sep), 48.5 (Aug)