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Indicator Digest

Services PMI
Services are measured by the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in the US, Euro-zone, UK and Australia. A level above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector, while a reading below 50 indicators contraction. The Index measures employment, production, new orders, supplier deliveries, and inventories. It is also one of the timeliest indicators, coming out near the beginning of the month.

Main Indicator: Services PMI

Most Recent Release

March
2nd, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
48.3 47.4 N/A

For February (s.a.)
Provided by: Australian Industry Group (AIG)
Official Release: PDF

From the Release:

"■ Subdued demand led to a second consecutive monthly contraction in services activity in February, although the pace of decline abated slightly.
■ The seasonally adjusted Australian Industry Group/Commonwealth Bank Performance of Services Index (Australian PSI®) rose by 0.9 percentage points to 48.3, below the 50.0 level separating expansion from contraction.
■ Sales of services fell for the first time since September 2009 and new orders continued to decline at a similar pace as in the previous two months.
■ Employment and supplier delivery levels dropped further and inventories of finished goods rose for the first time in four months.
■ Firms cited soft consumer and business confidence and cautious levels of investment as factors holding back services demand.
■ Activity rose in only two states: Western Australia and South Australia."

Table of Past Data

6/27/28/49/210/411/312/21/52/23/2
Actual39.950.244.148.049.354.352.550.047.448.3
Forecast
Previous39.839.9 50.244.148.049.354.852.550.047.4
Revised FromN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A

Past Releases

February
2nd, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
47.4 50.0 N/A

For January (s.a.)
Provided by: Australian Industry Group (AIG)
Official Release: PDF

From the Release: 

■ "Services activity contracted for the first time in four months in January, suggesting uncertainty around prospects for the sector in the near term.
■ The seasonally adjusted Australian Industry Group/Commonwealth Bank Performance of Services Index (Australian PSI®) fell by 2.6 points to 47.4, dropping below the 50.0 level separating expansion from contraction.
■ Despite a modest lift in sales, employment fell heavily in the month and new orders and supplier deliveries continued to decline.
■ The downturn in activity was broadly based, with all sectors, excluding the often volatile transport & storage sector, registering declines in the month.
■ Firms attributed the weakening in demand largely to successive increases in the official interest rate between October and December, which have dampened consumer and business confidence.
■ Activity contracted in all states other than Western Australia."

January
5th, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
50.0 52.5 N/A
For December (s.a.)
Provided by: Australian Industry Group (AIG)
Previous Release: HTML PDF
December
2nd, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
52.5 54.8 N/A
For November (s.a.)
Provided by: Australian Industry Group (AIG)
Previous Release: HTML PDF
November
3rd, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
54.3 49.3 N/A

For October (s.a.)
Provided by: Australian Industry Group (AIG)
Official Release: HTML PDF

From the Release: "The move into positive territory in the services sector reflects improved demand for services driven by a marked lift in consumer confidence. Housing related sectors such as finance & insurance, and property & business services, are also experiencing a period of growth.

"This improvement is further evidence of the positive impact monetary and fiscal policy stimulus measures continue to have on the economy, and especially the services sector. Consolidating the improvement remains the challenge with the underlying strength of private demand still uncertain", Mrs Ridout said."

October
4th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
49.3 48.0 N/A

For September (s.a.)
Provided by: Australian Industry Group (AIG)
Official Release: HTML PDF

From the Release: "Conditions in the services sector edged higher in September, underpinned by a rise in new orders and a lift in supplier deliveries, according to the Australian Industry Group/Commonwealth Bank Performance of Services Index (Australian PSI®). The seasonally adjusted Australian PSI® rose by 1.3 points to 49.3 in September, falling just short of the 50.0 level separating expansion from contraction.

Rising demand for retail and wholesale trade goods boosted stronger department store sales and contributed to solid activity growth in both sectors. Employment remained broadly steady in September, supported by jobs growth in personal & recreational services; finance & insurance; and property & business services."

September
2nd, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
48.0 44.1 N/A

For July (s.a.)
Provided by: Australian Industry Group (AIG)
Official Release: HTML PDF

From the Release: "ervices sector activity nudged closer to growth in August with the seasonally adjusted Australian Industry Group - Commonwealth Bank Performance of Services Index (Australian PSI®) rising by 3.9 points to 48.0 to be 14.4 points above the low of February 2009. Sales and new orders fell only slightly in the month and inventories of finished goods were run down at a significantly slower pace in August, while the decline in employment eased.

Australian Industry Group (Ai Group) Chief Executive, Heather Ridout, said: “Conditions in the services sector continued to improve in August, despite the Australian PSI® remaining below the key 50 point separating expansion from contraction. Companies surveyed cited benefits from improvements in consumer and business confidence, business investment, and housing sector conditions, illustrating the continuing role of monetary and fiscal stimulus in supporting the economy.

“While the improvement in services sector conditions is welcome, it is not clear whether the expansion in activity will survive the winding down of the stimulus, let alone a rise in interest rates. The answer to the question as to whether the rebound in activity is self sustaining is uncertain and therefore authorities should proceed with great caution,” Mrs Ridout said."

August
4th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
44.1 50.2 N/A

For June (s.a.)
Provided by: Australian Industry Group (AIG)
Official Release: HTML PDF

From the Release: "The spike in services sector activity was not sustained in July with activity falling back after nudging the growth line in June according to the latest Australian Industry Group - Commonwealth Bank Performance of Services Index (Australian PSI®). However, while the seasonally adjusted Australian PSI® fell by 6.1 points to 44.1 in July, the trend suggests the sector has performed better over recent months with the pace of contraction easing. (The 50.0 point level separates expansion from contraction.)

The Australian PSI® found that consumer spending on some of the more discretionary types of services, including retail goods and accommodation, cafés and restaurants, was pulled back in the month, while businesses relied on existing stocks to meet demand, rather than adding extra capacity."

July
2nd, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
50.2 39.9 N/A

For June (s.a.)
Provided by: Australian Industry Group (AIG)
Official Release: HTML PDF

From the Release: Services sector activity expanded slightly in June after 14 consecutive months of contraction. The seasonally adjusted Australian Industry Group/Commonwealth Bank Performance of Services Index (Australian PSI®) for June rose by 10.3 points to 50.2, lifting marginally above the 50.0 level separating expansion from the contraction.

Australian Industry Group (Ai Group) Chief Executive, Heather Ridout, said: "The June Australian PSI® is further encouraging news on top of the recent strong retail trade figures for May. The Australian PSI® results suggest that services sector activity strengthened more broadly in June on the back of rising consumer confidence, low interest rates and the Government's cash stimulus.

"The return to growth in sales and new orders, albeit at a modest pace, is particularly encouraging and is a clear and positive sign that the sector is responding to improvements in consumer and home buyer confidence. The broadening base of the improvement, with solid gains in finance & insurance and more modest increases in retail trade; accommodation, café's & restaurants and health & community services also suggests that some of the clouds around the outlook for services are lifting."

June
2nd, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
39.9 39.8 N/A
For May (s.a.)
Provided by: Australian Industry Group (AIG)
Previous Release: HTML PDF