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Indicator Digest

Services PMI
Services are measured by the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in the US, Euro-zone, UK and Australia. A level above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector, while a reading below 50 indicators contraction. The Index measures employment, production, new orders, supplier deliveries, and inventories. It is also one of the timeliest indicators, coming out near the beginning of the month.

Main Indicator: Services PMI

Most Recent Release

June
2nd, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
39.9 39.8 N/A
For May (s.a.)
Provided by: Australian Industry Group (AIG)
Previous Release: HTML PDF
Next Release Date: July 02nd 2009, 19:30 EST

Table of Past Data

9/210/211/412/21/52/33/34/25/46/2
Actual39.344.942.137.839.341.032.235.639.839.9
Forecast
Previous42.838.344.942.137.839.341.032.235.639.8
Revised FromN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A

Past Releases

May
4th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
39.8 35.6 N/A

For April (s.a.)
Provided by: Australian Industry Group (AIG)
Official Release: HTML PDF

From the Release: "Activity in Australia's services sector fell again in April, the thirteenth consecutive month the index was below the 50.0 level that separates expansion from contraction. While activity was still slowing, encouragingly the pace of decline eased in April compared with March. The decline in new orders slowed in April, falling at their slowest rate since October 2008.

Australian Industry Group (Ai Group) Chief Executive, Heather Ridout, said: "The Australian PSI readings for March and April provide some 'glimmers of hope' with the pace of decline easing and new orders in particular showing some upside. However, business conditions remain fundamentally weak across the sector. Material risks remain and with unemployment rising it is far too early to suggest the worst is behind us. We see current conditions being consistent with further falls in official interest rates," Mrs Ridout said."

April
2nd, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
35.6 32.2 N/A

For March (s.a.)
Provided by: Australian Industry Group (AIG)
Official Release: HTML PDF

From the Release: The seasonally adjusted Australian Performance of Services Index (Australian PSI®) rose by 3.4 points to 35.6 in March, still well below the 50.0 points level separating expansion from contraction. Australian Industry Group (Ai Group) Chief Executive, Heather Ridout, said that conditions in the services sector remain overwhelmingly weak with all sectors in all states deteriorating.

"With the Government stimulus package to be paid out over the coming weeks the timing couldn't have been better for the services sector. These payments will reinforce the positive boost provided by lower interest rates and the increase in the first home buyer's grants which are clearly providing some support to the sector. The Australian PSI® for March shows that confidence remains under siege from rising unemployment and an uncertain outlook for the domestic and world economy. The RBA and the OECD have confirmed that conditions will get tougher in Australia in the months ahead and this makes a strong case for a further reduction in interest rates," Mrs Ridout said."

 

March
3rd, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
32.2 41.0 N/A
For February (s.a.)
Provided by: Australian Industry Group (AIG)
Previous Release: HTML PDF
February
3rd, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
41.0 39.3 N/A

For January (s.a.)
Provided by: Australian Industry Group (AIG)
Official Release: HTML PDF

Highlights from the Release: 

  • "Services sector activity fell for a tenth consecutive month in January, although at a slightly slower pace than in December. 
  • The Australian PSI® rose 1.7 points to 41.0. 
  • The decelerated rate of contraction in overall activity largely reflects a slower rate of decline in the retail trade; wholesale trade; and accommodation, cafés & restaurants sectors and the re-emergence of growth in communication services. This might be evidence of a modest impact on spending as a result of recent fiscal stimulus measures. 
  • January's outcome for overall services activity reflected further falls in sales and new orders. Previous months' weakness in both these components of the index was reflected in further falls in employment and supplier deliveries. 
  • Sales continue to be drawn from inventories, with January seeing a ninth consecutive fall in stock levels."
January
5th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
39.3 37.8 N/A

For December (s.a.)
Provided by: Australian Industry Group (AIG)
Official Release: HTML PDF

From the Release:

  • "Persistent weak demand lead to a ninth consecutive decline in services sector activity in December. 
  • The Australian PSI® rose 1.5 points to 39.3. 
  • The slight moderation in the rate of decline in services activity was largely due to softer falls in the property & business services and transport & storage sectors. This largely reflected a marginal improvement in the property market; demand for transport services in the lead-up to Christmas; and lower fuel costs. 
  • Sales, new orders and inventories all decreased at a slower rate in December, with the pace of job-shedding remaining broadly steady. 
  • Capacity utilisation rose slightly, while input cost increases moderated further."
December
2nd, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
37.8 42.1 N/A

For November (s.a.)
Provided by: Australian Industry Group (AIG)
Current Release: PDF (Save Link As...)

The services sector contracted significantly faster than in October, as the Performance of Services Index (PSI) fell 4.3 points from 42.1 to 37.8 in November. According to the Australian Industry Group, sales, new orders and the employment subindexes all fell to record lows.  

From the release: Services sector activity contracted for an eighth consecutive month in November, with the turmoil in global financial markets continuing to batter consumer and business confidence.
November
4th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
42.1 44.9 N/A

For October (s.a.)
Provided by: Australian Industry Group (AIG)
Previous Release: PDF (Save Link As...)

The Australian services sector contracted for the seventh straight month in October, falling to 42.1. The decline was broad, and only 1 of the 9 sectors, communications, showed growth. The continuing weakness in the services sector will prompt the RBA to ease interest rates further. 

October
2nd, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
44.9 38.3 N/A

For September (s.a.)
Provided by: Australian Industry Group (AIG)
Official Release: PDF (Save Link As...)

Services sector activity contracted for a sixth successive month in September, although the rate of decline eased for the first time since May.

From the Release:
■ "Firms pointed to instability in global financial markets and Australia's soft building sector as factors restricting services activity.
■ The seasonally adjusted Australian Industry Group/Commonwealth Bank Performance of Services Index (Australian PSI®) rose 5.6 points to 44.9, but remained below the key 50.0 level separating expansion from contraction.
■ Activity grew in the transport & storage and personal & recreational services sectors, but continued to fall in the other seven services sectors.
■ Lower petrol prices and a reduction in the official interest rate at the beginning of the month contributed to the softer contraction in services activity.
■ Activity fell in all states, although the rate of contraction only worsened in Queensland."

September
2nd, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
39.3 42.8 N/A

For August (s.a.)
Provided by: Australian Industry Group (AIG)
Official Release: PDF

From the Release: "■ The seasonally adjusted Australian Industry Group/Commonwealth Bank Performance of Services (Australian PSI®) fell 3.5 points to 39.3, remaining well below the key 50.0 level separating expansion from contraction.
■ Services sector activity deteriorated further in August, amid soft consumer and business confidence and weaker economic conditions.
■ The fifth consecutive monthly decline in services activity was underpinned by significant falls in sales and new orders. Employment in services continued to decrease, although at a slower pace, while supplier deliveries tumbled further.
■ None of the nine services sectors reported activity growth in August, with the more discretionary services sectors of retail trade and accommodation, cafes & restaurants amongst the hardest hit.
■ High fuel prices also impacted significantly on the transport & storage sector."