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- JPN
Main Indicator: Tankan Large Manufacturers Index
Most Recent Release
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -3 | -2 | 5 | N/A | ||
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For 3rd Quarter
Managers at large-scale Japanese companies grew more pessimistic about business condition in September than they were 3 months ago. The index among large manufacturers fell to -3, while the non-manufacturing index fell to 1. Both were below forecasts and point to corporations burdened by a weakening domestic economy, weaker consumer spending, and falling profits as a result of higher raw materials costs. Demand from abroad has also been faltering as the global slowdown gains steam. Exports to the US are down in record levels, while a main concern is that China will start to struggle as well. Demand from China has been able to offset some of the declines from the US. The -3 headline figure is the first time the indicator has gone negative in 5 years. The outlook for December shows the Tankan survey falling further. Firm's spending, excluding land and software, climbed 2.8% year on year. |
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Table of Past Data
| 7/2 | 10/1 | 12/14 | 4/1 | 7/1 | 9/30 | 12/13 | 3/31 | 6/30 | 9/30 | ||
| Actual | 21 | 24 | 25 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 19 | 11 | 5 | -3 | |
| Forecast | 22 | 22 | 26 | 24 | 23 | 21 | 21 | 13 | 3 | -2 | |
| Previous | 20 | 21 | 24 | 25 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 19 | 11 | 5 | |
| Revised From | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
Secondary Indicator: Tankan Non-Manufacturers Index
Most Recent Release
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 1 | 5 | 10 | N/A |
Table of Past Data
| 7/2 | 10/1 | 12/14 | 4/1 | 7/1 | 9/30 | 12/13 | 3/31 | 6/30 | 9/30 | ||
| Actual | 20 | 20 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 20 | 16 | 12 | 10 | 1 | |
| Forecast | 19 | 20 | 21 | 23 | 22 | 21 | 18 | 12 | 8 | 5 | |
| Previous | 18 | 20 | 20 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 20 | 16 | 12 | 10 | |
| Revised From | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
Past Releases
Tankan Large Manufacturers Index
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 5 | 3 | 11 | N/A | ||
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For 2nd Quarter
Confidence among Japan's manufacturers fell to a 4-year low in the 2nd quarter, with profits set to decline for the first time since the 2001 recession. The index fell to 5 points in June, from 11 in March, though it was expected to fall even further. The Japanese economy is straining as consumers pressured by a weaker labor market and higher inflation cut back on spending. Lower sales coincide with higher costs for companies for energy and commodities, eroding profits. With the slowdown that started in the US spreading to the UK and the Euro-zone, Japan's export industry will have to rely on emerging markets such as China and Russia to bolster demand. Companies said they will increase capital spending 2.4%, a poor reading, as they prepare for a slowdown. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 10 | 8 | 12 | N/A | ||
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For 2nd Quarter
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 11 | 13 | 19 | N/A | ||
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For 1st Quarter
Pre-Release from MarketWatch: "An influential Bank of Japan survey is expected to show on Tuesday that confidence among Japan's larger manufacturers deteriorated sharply in the three months ending March 31 as a slowing U.S. economy, rising yen and higher energy and food prices undermine business conditions." Post-Release: The Tankan index of manufacturer sentiment slid to 11 points in March from 19 in December, worse than economists had forecast. Exporters may be cutting back capital spending and production as the Japanese economy's recovery is losing steam. Exports have been a main driver of recent growth, and much will depend how the US and other large economies perform in the face of the global slowdown caused by the credit crunch and financial crisis of last year. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 12 | 12 | 16 | N/A | ||
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For 1st Quarter
Provided by: Bank of Japan |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 19 | 21 | 23 | N/A | ||
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For 4th Quarter Outlook for Q1 2008:16 forecast:18 pr:19 Release from Bank of Japan: Tankan>/a> Sentiments of the sub-prime meltdown is catching up. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 16 | 18 | 20 | N/A | ||
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For 4th Quarter Outlook:15 forecast:18 pr.20 Release from Bank of Japan: Tankan |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 23 | 21 | 23 | N/A | ||
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For 3rd Quarter. Tankan Large Manufacturers Outlook (3Q): 19, forecast 20, pr. 22 Tankan Large All Industry Capex (3Q): 8.7%, forecast 7.5%, pr. 7.5% Despite the subprime mortgage problems spreading in recent months, large Japanese manufacturers retained the same optimism they had from the June survey. Manufacturers as well as non-manufacturers increased their investment planning to a combined 8.7% in April's fiscal year. June's expectations were a combined 7.7%. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 20 | 21 | 22 | N/A | ||
| In the 3rd quarter,non-manufacturer's optimism level declined in comparison to the June quarter. Combined with a manufacturer's index, which beat expectations but remained flat, the Tankan survey does not give the Bank of Japan any reason to raise rates. | |||||
|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 23 | 23 | 23 | N/A | ||
| Outlook for Sept. 2007 is 22, 1 lower than the 23 forecast in the previous Tankan survey. | |||||
|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 22 | 22 | 22 | N/A | ||
| The outlook for Sept 2007 for large non-manufacturing index is 23, +1 from the previous forecast of 22. | |||||
|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 23 | 24 | 25 | N/A |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 22 | 23 | 22 | N/A |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 25 | 26 | 24 | N/A |
|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 22 | 21 | 20 | N/A |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 24 | 22 | 21 | N/A |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 20 | 20 | 20 | N/A |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 21 | 22 | 20 | N/A |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 20 | 19 | 18 | N/A |
















