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Tankan Survey
The Tankan survey is an influential quarterly report conducted by the Bank of England that measures performance of "large" manufacturing and the services sectors of the economy. Respondents are asked to rate categories that include general business conditions, supply and demand conditions for products and inventories, prices, sales, and employment conditions.
  • JPN

Main Indicator: Tankan Large Manufacturers Index

Most Recent Release

September
30th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-3 -2 5 N/A

For 3rd Quarter
Provided by: Bank of Japan
Official Release: PDF

Managers at large-scale Japanese companies grew more pessimistic about business condition in September than they were 3 months ago. The index among large manufacturers fell to -3, while the non-manufacturing index fell to 1. Both were below forecasts and point to corporations burdened by a weakening domestic economy, weaker consumer spending, and falling profits as a result of higher raw materials costs. Demand from abroad has also been faltering as the global slowdown gains steam. Exports to the US are down in record levels, while a main concern is that China will start to struggle as well. Demand from China has been able to offset some of the declines from the US. 

The -3 headline figure is the first time the indicator has gone negative in 5 years. The outlook for December shows the Tankan survey falling further. Firm's spending, excluding land and software, climbed 2.8% year on year. 

Table of Past Data

7/210/112/144/17/19/3012/133/316/309/30
Actual21242523232319115-3
Forecast22222624232121133-2
Previous2021242523232319115
Revised FromN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A

Secondary Indicator: Tankan Non-Manufacturers Index

Most Recent Release

September
30th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
1 5 10 N/A

Table of Past Data

7/210/112/144/17/19/3012/133/316/309/30
Actual2020222222201612101
Forecast192021232221181285
Previous18202022222220161210
Revised FromN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A

Past Releases

Tankan Large Manufacturers Index
June
30th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
5 3 11 N/A

For 2nd Quarter
Provided by: Bank of Japan
Official Release: PDF

Confidence among Japan's manufacturers fell to a 4-year low in the 2nd quarter, with profits set to decline for the first time since the 2001 recession. The index fell to 5 points in June, from 11 in March, though it was expected to fall even further. The Japanese economy is straining as consumers pressured by a weaker labor market and higher inflation cut back on spending. Lower sales coincide with higher costs for companies for energy and commodities, eroding profits. With the slowdown that started in the US spreading to the UK and the Euro-zone, Japan's export industry will have to rely on emerging markets such as China and Russia to bolster demand. Companies said they will increase capital spending 2.4%, a poor reading, as they prepare for a slowdown. 

Tankan Non-Manufacturers Index
June
30th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
10 8 12 N/A

For 2nd Quarter
Provided by: Bank of Japan
Official Release: PDF

 

Tankan Large Manufacturers Index
March
31st, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
11 13 19 N/A

For 1st Quarter
Provided by: Bank of Japan

Pre-Release from MarketWatch:

"An influential Bank of Japan survey is expected to show on Tuesday that confidence among Japan's larger manufacturers deteriorated sharply in the three months ending March 31 as a slowing U.S. economy, rising yen and higher energy and food prices undermine business conditions."

Post-Release:

The Tankan index of manufacturer sentiment slid to 11 points in March from 19 in December, worse than economists had forecast. Exporters may be cutting back capital spending and production as the Japanese economy's recovery is losing steam. Exports have been a main driver of recent growth, and much will depend how the US and other large economies perform in the face of the global slowdown caused by the credit crunch and financial crisis of last year. 

Tankan Non-Manufacturers Index
March
31st, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
12 12 16 N/A
For 1st Quarter
Provided by: Bank of Japan
Tankan Large Manufacturers Index
December
13th, 2007
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
19 21 23 N/A
For 4th Quarter
Outlook for Q1 2008:16 forecast:18 pr:19
Release from Bank of Japan: Tankan>/a>

Sentiments of the sub-prime meltdown is catching up.
Tankan Non-Manufacturers Index
December
13th, 2007
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
16 18 20 N/A
For 4th Quarter
Outlook:15 forecast:18 pr.20
Release from Bank of Japan: Tankan
Tankan Large Manufacturers Index
September
30th, 2007
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
23 21 23 N/A
For 3rd Quarter.

Tankan Large Manufacturers Outlook (3Q): 19, forecast 20, pr. 22
Tankan Large All Industry Capex (3Q): 8.7%, forecast 7.5%, pr. 7.5%

Despite the subprime mortgage problems spreading in recent months, large Japanese manufacturers retained the same optimism they had from the June survey. Manufacturers as well as non-manufacturers increased their investment planning to a combined 8.7% in April's fiscal year. June's expectations were a combined 7.7%.
Tankan Non-Manufacturers Index
September
30th, 2007
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
20 21 22 N/A
In the 3rd quarter,non-manufacturer's optimism level declined in comparison to the June quarter. Combined with a manufacturer's index, which beat expectations but remained flat, the Tankan survey does not give the Bank of Japan any reason to raise rates.
Tankan Large Manufacturers Index
July
1st, 2007
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
23 23 23 N/A
Outlook for Sept. 2007 is 22, 1 lower than the 23 forecast in the previous Tankan survey.
Tankan Non-Manufacturers Index
July
1st, 2007
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
22 22 22 N/A
The outlook for Sept 2007 for large non-manufacturing index is 23, +1 from the previous forecast of 22.
Tankan Large Manufacturers Index
April
1st, 2007
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
23 24 25 N/A
Tankan Non-Manufacturers Index
April
1st, 2007
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
22 23 22 N/A
Tankan Large Manufacturers Index
December
14th, 2006
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
25 26 24 N/A
Tankan Non-Manufacturers Index
December
14th, 2006
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
22 21 20 N/A
Tankan Large Manufacturers Index
October
1st, 2006
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
24 22 21 N/A
Tankan Non-Manufacturers Index
October
1st, 2006
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
20 20 20 N/A
Tankan Large Manufacturers Index
July
2nd, 2006
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
21 22 20 N/A
Tankan Non-Manufacturers Index
July
2nd, 2006
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
20 19 18 N/A

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