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Manufacturing PMI

Main Indicator: Manufacturing PMI

Most Recent Release

July
9th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
45.7 49.3 N/A

For June
Provided by: Business NZ/Bank of New Zealand
Official Release: Press Release

The New Zealand economy continues to show sign of weakness, with its manufacturing sector coming under serious strain in June. The PMI was the second weakest since the survey started in 2002.

From the Release: ""The Bank of New Zealand - Business NZ seasonally adjusted PMI for June (45.7) experienced a significant drop in activity, to record its second lowest result since the survey began in 2002. It was also the lowest June value recorded, with the previous lowest being June 2007 (52.6). Unadjusted results for June showed contraction in activity nation wide.

Four of the five main diffusion indices recorded ongoing weakening. Production (42.3) fell to its lowest result, while new orders (44.8) reverted to a value similar to March 2008. Employment (45.6) remains in decline with its second lowest value, while deliveries of raw materials (41.9) experienced the lowest value of any main index for the history of the survey (the previous lowest value for this sub-index being 43.3 in November 2005). Finished stocks (50.6) showed minor expansion."

Next Release Date: August 13th 2008, 20:00 EST

Table of Past Data

10/1011/1412/121/232/133/144/95/146/117/9
Actual54.656.957.253.853.352.248.351.449.345.7
Forecast
Previous55.755.156.957.253.653.352.248.751.549.3
Revised FromN/A54.6N/AN/A53.8N/AN/A48.351.4N/A

Past Releases

June
11th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
49.3 51.5 51.4

For May
Provided by: Business NZ/Bank of New Zealand
Official Release: Press Release

The manufacturing index dropped to 49.3 in May from 51.5 in April as slowing global economic growth reduced export orders. The Kiwi was lower vs the US Dollar following the release.

From the Release: "New Zealand’s manufacturing sector continued to weaken in May amidst challenging economic conditions, according to the Bank of New Zealand - Business NZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI). The seasonally adjusted PMI for May stood at 49.3, which is 2.2 points down from April, although still higher than the March result. The slight contraction recorded in May takes the average PMI value for 2008 to date to 50.9. The May result is well below the average PMI value of 54.3 since the survey began in 2002.

Business NZ chief executive Phil O’Reilly says the reversal to a sub-50 result for May indicates the tough times manufacturers are facing at the moment. “There are still groups of manufacturers who are experiencing positive outcomes from the current economic situation, acquiring new customers (here and offshore) and businesses. However, three-quarters of manufacturers are working through issues involving a global slowdown, a high New Zealand dollar and a flat domestic market. Although this offers little comfort, the global PMI shows that New Zealand manufacturers are not alone in dealing with these difficult times.”

May
14th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
51.4 48.7 48.3
For April
Provided by: Business NZ/Bank of New Zealand
Official Release (previous): PDF

The manufacturing PMI, although staying above 50, is the lowest April value since the survey began in August 2002. Manufacturing activity is cooling from lackluster demand, notable coming from the household sector.

From the release:

The Bank of New Zealand - Business NZ seasonally adjusted PMI for April (51.4) showed an improvement on the result for March, but still at very sluggish levels of activity. It was also the lowest April value since the survey began in August 2002, with the previous lowest result being April 2005 (51.9).
April
9th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
48.3 52.2 N/A
For March - Released Early
Provided by: Business NZ/Bank of New Zealand
Official Release: PDF

Manufacturing activity declined with the seasonally adjusted PMI down 3.5 points from February to sit at 48.2 for March. 

From the Release:

"Business NZ seasonally adjusted PMI for March (48.3) showed a decrease in overall activity for the first time since January 2006, and the lowest value since November 2005. It was also the lowest March value since the survey began in August 2002, with the previous lowest result being March 2005 (51.7).

For the first time since December 2005, the majority of the main diffusion indices recorded decline rather than expansion. This was due to new orders (44.6), production (46.4) and employment (49.4) all experiencing a drop in activity. The falloff in new orders and production were sharp, with the former a concern for future production in the coming months. Both finished stocks (53.0) and deliveries (50.7) showed some expansion for March."

March
14th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
52.2 53.3 N/A
For February
February
13th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
53.3 53.6 53.8

For January

Provided by: Business NZ/Bank of New Zealand
Official Release: PDF

"The Bank of New Zealand - Business NZ seasonally adjusted PMI for January (53.3) showed manufacturing activity close to the same level as December, although elements of the broader results showed some softening in the sector.

All five seasonally adjusted main diffusion indices recorded expansion for the sixth consecutive month, although only deliveries (55.7) and finished stocks (54.5) displayed a higher result than December. Production (51.5) experienced its lowest value since June 2007, and the second lowest January result on record. Employment (51.2) was largely unchanged from December, while new orders (54.1) were at its lowest level since April 2006."

January
23rd, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
53.8 57.2 N/A
For December
December
12th, 2007
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
57.2 56.9 N/A
For November.
November
14th, 2007
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
56.9 55.1 54.6
For October.
October
10th, 2007
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
54.6 55.7 N/A
September's manufacturing expansion level was in line with its average for this month (54.9) between 2002-2006. Steady pickups in new orders and new product lines bode well for production activity leading to Christmas.

Although growth is strong in this sector, there is heightened concerns about the currencies recent fluctuations. Phil Business NZ chief executive, O'Reilly said regarding the strong index, "However, the wild swings in value over recent months mean that volatility is also a concern.

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