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Main Indicator: Manufacturing PMI
Most Recent Release
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 45.7 | 49.3 | N/A | |||
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For June
The New Zealand economy continues to show sign of weakness, with its manufacturing sector coming under serious strain in June. The PMI was the second weakest since the survey started in 2002.
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Table of Past Data
| 10/10 | 11/14 | 12/12 | 1/23 | 2/13 | 3/14 | 4/9 | 5/14 | 6/11 | 7/9 | ||
| Actual | 54.6 | 56.9 | 57.2 | 53.8 | 53.3 | 52.2 | 48.3 | 51.4 | 49.3 | 45.7 | |
| Forecast | |||||||||||
| Previous | 55.7 | 55.1 | 56.9 | 57.2 | 53.6 | 53.3 | 52.2 | 48.7 | 51.5 | 49.3 | |
| Revised From | N/A | 54.6 | N/A | N/A | 53.8 | N/A | N/A | 48.3 | 51.4 | N/A | |
Past Releases
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 49.3 | 51.5 | 51.4 | |||
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For May
The manufacturing index dropped to 49.3 in May from 51.5 in April as slowing global economic growth reduced export orders. The Kiwi was lower vs the US Dollar following the release. From the Release: "New Zealand’s manufacturing sector continued to weaken in May amidst challenging economic conditions, according to the Bank of New Zealand - Business NZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI). The seasonally adjusted PMI for May stood at 49.3, which is 2.2 points down from April, although still higher than the March result. The slight contraction recorded in May takes the average PMI value for 2008 to date to 50.9. The May result is well below the average PMI value of 54.3 since the survey began in 2002. Business NZ chief executive Phil O’Reilly says the reversal to a sub-50 result for May indicates the tough times manufacturers are facing at the moment. “There are still groups of manufacturers who are experiencing positive outcomes from the current economic situation, acquiring new customers (here and offshore) and businesses. However, three-quarters of manufacturers are working through issues involving a global slowdown, a high New Zealand dollar and a flat domestic market. Although this offers little comfort, the global PMI shows that New Zealand manufacturers are not alone in dealing with these difficult times.” |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 51.4 | 48.7 | 48.3 | |||
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For April
Provided by: Business NZ/Bank of New Zealand Official Release (previous): PDF
The manufacturing PMI, although staying above 50, is the lowest April value since the survey began in August 2002. Manufacturing activity is cooling from lackluster demand, notable coming from the household sector.
The Bank of New Zealand - Business NZ seasonally adjusted PMI for April (51.4) showed an improvement on the result for March, but still at very sluggish levels of activity. It was also the lowest April value since the survey began in August 2002, with the previous lowest result being April 2005 (51.9). |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 48.3 | 52.2 | N/A | |||
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For March - Released Early
Provided by: Business NZ/Bank of New Zealand Official Release: PDF Manufacturing activity declined with the seasonally adjusted PMI down 3.5 points from February to sit at 48.2 for March. From the Release: "Business NZ seasonally adjusted PMI for March (48.3) showed a decrease in overall activity for the first time since January 2006, and the lowest value since November 2005. It was also the lowest March value since the survey began in August 2002, with the previous lowest result being March 2005 (51.7). For the first time since December 2005, the majority of the main diffusion indices recorded decline rather than expansion. This was due to new orders (44.6), production (46.4) and employment (49.4) all experiencing a drop in activity. The falloff in new orders and production were sharp, with the former a concern for future production in the coming months. Both finished stocks (53.0) and deliveries (50.7) showed some expansion for March." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 52.2 | 53.3 | N/A | |||
| For February | |||||
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 53.3 | 53.6 | 53.8 | |||
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For January
Provided by: Business NZ/Bank of New Zealand
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 53.8 | 57.2 | N/A | |||
| For December | |||||
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 57.2 | 56.9 | N/A | |||
| For November. | |||||
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 56.9 | 55.1 | 54.6 | |||
| For October. | |||||
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 54.6 | 55.7 | N/A | |||
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September's manufacturing expansion level was in line with its average for this month (54.9) between 2002-2006. Steady pickups in new orders and new product lines bode well for production activity leading to Christmas. Although growth is strong in this sector, there is heightened concerns about the currencies recent fluctuations. Phil Business NZ chief executive, O'Reilly said regarding the strong index, "However, the wild swings in value over recent months mean that volatility is also a concern. |
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