Preliminary Version for September

Germany: 48.1, pr. 49.7 (Aug), 50.9 (Jul), 52.6 (Jun), 53.6 (May)
France: 43.6, pr. 45.8 (Aug), 45.1 (Jul), 49.2 (Jun), 51.5 (May)
Italy: pr. 47.1 (Aug), 45.3 (Jul), 46.9 (Jun), 48.0 (May)
Spain: pr. 42.4 (Aug), 39.2 (Jul), 40.6 (Jun), 43.8 (May)

Activity in Euro-zone manufacturing was in contraction for the 4th straight month in September, preliminary data showed today. Markit's manufacturing PMI index fell to 45.3 this month from 47.6 in August, which was far below economists forecasts and is the contracting at the fastest pace in almost seven years. Companies are scaling back production as credit dries up and both domestic and foreign demand cools in the face of slowing economic growth both at home and abroad. With Euro-zone GDP already contracting in the 2nd quarter it seems that the 3rd quarter will prove to be just as weak, putting the Euro-zone economy into recession.

The services PMI came in at 48.2, which was lower than in August, but slightly higher than expectations. The Euro weakened against the Dollar in the aftermath of the release. Yesterday the pair reached above 1.48, but in today's trading it fell below 1.47.

Final Version for August

Germany: 49.7, prel. 49.9 pr. 50.9 (Jul), 52.6 (Jun), 53.6 (May)
France: 45.8, pr. 45.1 (Jul), 49.2 (Jun), 51.5 (May)
Italy: 47.1, pr. 45.3 (Jul), 46.9 (Jun), 48.0 (May)
Spain: 42.4, pr. 39.2 (Jul), 40.6 (Jun), 43.8 (May)

Manufacturing PMI contracted in the Euro-zone with activity staying near its level in July. The final figures showed Germany falling into contraction, while France, Italy and Spain improved from their very week levels in July. Spain, for instance, saw its first increase in 6 months. The Euro-zone economy as a whole is facing some stiff times, as the economy contracted in the 2nd quarter.

Capsule Commentary from Preliminary Release (Aug 21st): "Activity in manufacturing, and services, contracted for a 3rd month in the Euro-zone, preliminary data for August showed. The manufacturing PMI registered a 47.5, which is a slight improvement on July's figure and above expectations. German manufacturing fell below the 50 level separating contraction from expansion, while France's figure fell to 45.1 from 49.2 in July. July saw oil prices climb to their high near $147, pushing up gas prices, and can explain some of the softness as companies adjusted accordingly.

Even though prices for oil have come down, and the Euro's value has eased - helping exports - the damage had been done. GDP fell 0.2% in the second quarter and the headwinds from the credit crunch, high inflation, and weaker demand abroad will continue to limit both the manufacturing and services sectors."

Preliminary Version for Aug

Germany: 49.9 pr. 52.6 (Jun), 53.6 (May)
France: 45.1, pr. 49.2 (Jun), 51.5 (May)
Italy: pr. 46.9 (Jun), 48.0 (May)
Spain: pr. 40.6 (Jun), 43.8 (May)

Activity in manufacturing, and services, contracted for a 3rd month in the Euro-zone, preliminary data for August showed. The manufacturing PMI registered a 47.5, which is a slight improvement on July's figure and above expectations. German manufacturing fell below the 50 level separating contraction from expansion, while France's figure fell to 45.1 from 49.2 in July. July saw oil prices climb to their high near $147, pushing up gas prices, and can explain some of the softness as companies adjusted accordingly.

Even though prices for oil have come down, and the Euro's value has eased - helping exports - the damage had been done. GDP fell 0.2% in the second quarter and the headwinds from the credit crunch, high inflation, and weaker demand abroad will continue to limit both the manufacturing and services sectors.

Final Version for July

Germany: 50.9, pr. 52.6 (Jun), 53.6 (May)
France: 47.1, pr. 49.2 (Jun), 51.5 (May)
Italy: 45.3, pr. 46.9 (Jun), 48.0 (May)
Spain: pr. 40.6 (Jun), 43.8 (May)

The final version of manufacturing PMI stuck close to the preliminary release, registering a 47.4. The Euro-zone has entered a serious period of slowdown. Consumer and business confidence is being eroded, which will affect orders for goods. Today, Germany's retail sales data highlighted the difficulties the economy faces. With the ECB hiking rates in its last meeting, conditions may only get harder for firms and consumers.  

Capsule Comment for Preliminary Release (July 24th): "Activity in the manufacturing sector declined sharply in July, falling to 47.5 from June's 49.2, according to preliminary data. Manufacturing is being pressured by weaker global demand, and lowers domestic sales as companies and consumer curtail spending. Producers are being forced to raise prices as a result of higher input costs, mainly any derivatives of oil and energy. Activity in services was down as well, and a third release today showed German business confidence falling to its lowest in 2001."

Preliminary Version for July

Germany: pr. 52.6 (Jun), 53.6 (May)
France: pr. 49.2 (Jun), 51.5 (May)
Italy: pr. 46.9 (Jun), 48.0 (May)
Spain: pr. 40.6 (Jun), 43.8 (May)

Activity in the manufacturing sector declined sharply in July, falling to 47.5 from June's 49.2, according to preliminary data. Manufacturing is being pressured by weaker global demand, and lowers domestic sales as companies and consumer curtail spending. Producers are being forced to raise prices as a result of higher input costs, mainly any derivatives of oil and energy. Activity in services was down as well, and a third release today showed German business confidence falling to its lowest in 2001. 

Final Version for June

Germany: 52.6, pr. 53.6
France: 49.2, pr. 51.5
Italy: 46.9, pr. 48.0
Spain: 40.6, 43.8

Manufacturing in the Euro-zone overall remained close to its preliminary estimate from June 23rd. In May, the final version was 50.6, so there is confirmation now of a move into contraction. France's activity fell to its lowest since May 2005, while Italy was at its lowest level since 2001. Spain's activity sank to its lowest level since records begain in 1998.

Capsule Comment from Preliminary Release (June 23rd): Activity in the manufacturing and services sectors fell below the 50 boom-bust level separating expansion from contraction for the first time in 5 years. The data suggests that slowdown many have seen in the data already is hitting home with the prospect of an interest rate increase by the ECB also looming for July. Higher fuel prices are causing consumers to buy less durable goods such as automobiles, hampering manufacturing, while a strong Euro is dampening the demand for European exports.

Advanced Estimate for June

Activity in the manufacturing and services sectors fell below the 50 boom-bust level separating expansion from contraction for the first time in 5 years. The data suggests that slowdown many have seen in the data already is hitting home with the prospect of an interest rate increase by the ECB also looming for July. Higher fuel prices are causing consumers to buy less durable goods such as automobiles, hampering manufacturing, while a strong Euro is dampening the demand for European exports.  

Final version for May

The final version of Manufacturing PMI rose slightly from its 50.5 preliminary release. It was at 50.7 in April.

Capsule Comment from Preliminary Release on May 23rd:

"Activity in the manufacturing sector was weaker in May, with the PMI falling to 50.5 from 50.7, a preliminary report showed. The accompanying Services PMI fared worse, with activity far below expectations. The 2nd quarter is shaping up to be a much rougher period for the Euro-zone as a high Euro, record high oil prices, and slackening demand from the US will weight on manufacturing. Just yesterday, industrial new orders data showed a sharp fall of 1%."

Preliminary Release for May

Activity in the manufacturing sector was weaker in May, with the PMI falling to 50.5 from 50.7, a preliminary report showed. The accompanying Services PMI fared worse, with activity far below expectations. The 2nd quarter is shaping up to be a much rougher period for the Euro-zone as a high Euro, record high oil prices, and slackening demand from the US will weight on manufacturing. Just yesterday, industrial new orders data showed a sharp fall of 1%.