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Indicator Digest

Manufacturing PMI

Main Indicator: Manufacturing PMI

Most Recent Release

June
30th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
49.3 37.5 N/A

For une
Provided by: Australian Industry Group (AIG)
Official Release: HTML PDF

From the Release: "Manufacturing activity continued to weaken throughout June although the pace of decline eased slightly. The seasonally adjusted Australian Industry Group - PricewaterhouseCoopers Australian Performance of Manufacturing Index (Australian PMI®) rose by 0.9 points to 38.4, remaining below the 50.0 level separating expansion from contraction. While activity has now contracted for 13 consecutive months, the Australian PMI® in June was 7.1 points above last year's lowest reading in November 2008."

Table of Past Data

9/3011/211/301/12/13/13/314/305/316/30
Actual47.240.432.733.736.631.733.430.137.549.3
Forecast
Previous47.047.240.432.733.736.631.733.230.137.5
Revised FromN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A33.4N/AN/A

Past Releases

May
31st, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
37.5 30.1 N/A

For May
Provided by: Australian Industry Group (AIG)
Official Release: HTML PDF

From the Release:

  • "The seasonally adjusted Australian Industry Group-PricewaterhouseCoopers Australian PMI® rose by 7.4 points to 37.5. This is still well below the 50-point mark separating expansion from contraction, but is its highest point in the past seven months.
  • Six sectors, out of twelve, saw the rate of decline in activity improve in comparison with April.
  • The seasonally adjusted new orders sub-index rose strongly by 12.7 points to 39.4 in May, but remained well below 50, indicting ongoing falls in new orders.
  • A solid proportion of firms cited weak orders and sales as their key concern, with some pointing to weak demand from the resources, construction and retail sectors.
  • The sharp fall in inventories may indicate that production could be set to recover in the near future.
  • Exports fell for the ninth consecutive month.
  • Manufacturing activity fell in all states. The largest falls were recorded in New South Wales and South Australia."
April
30th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
30.1 33.2 33.4

For April
Provided by: Australian Industry Group (AIG)
Official Release: HTML PDF

From the Release: "Australian manufacturing industry output fell for the eleventh consecutive month in April, continuing to trawl uncharted lows. Producers cut inventories at the fastest rate in the index’s history in the face of a continuing drop in demand for new goods. The seasonally adjusted Australian Industry Group - PricewaterhouseCoopers Australian Performance of Manufacturing Index (Australian PMI®) fell by 3.1 points to a record low of 30.1 which is well below the 50-point mark that separates expansion from contraction. The April Australian PMI® showed falls in all States.

Australian Industry Group (Ai Group) Chief Executive, Heather Ridout, said: “There was no let up for manufacturers in April, with weakness and uncertainty continuing to characterise the sector. Weak demand in both domestic and global markets contributed to the ongoing contraction of the sector. However, the inventory index is at record lows, which should suggest that production levels will have to lift soon to replenish stocks.

“The infrastructure roll-out and lift in housing starts have the potential to translate into new orders for local industry. However, a concerted effort to ensure that Australian-based companies are aware of the opportunities and have a fair and open access to them is important. Ai Group will be pushing this agenda,” Mrs Ridout said."

March
31st, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
33.4 31.7 N/A

For March
Provided by: Australian Industry Group (AIG)
Official Release: HTML PDF

From the Release: The manufacturing industry continued to deteriorate in March although the rate of decline has eased with the Australian Industry Group - PricewaterhouseCoopers Australian Performance of Manufacturing Index (Australian PMI®) up slightly by 1.7 points to 33.4. This is well below the 50-point mark that separates expansion from contraction.

Australian Industry Group (Ai Group) Chief Executive, Heather Ridout, said: "The manufacturing industry continues to endure extremely challenging economic conditions with the March Australian PMI® showing that all sectors in all states, with the exception of Tasmania, declined in March.

"Production, capacity utilisation and exports remain in the doldrums, with the new orders reading - although a little up from February - not indicating any early pick up. As a result, employment fell across the board while wages growth continued to ease.

"The Australian PMI® suggests that economic conditions have not bottomed in the economy and that the outlook remains uncertain. Business is hunkering down and hoping that conditions will improve in the second half of the year. Whether they will, remains to be seen," Mrs Ridout said."

March
1st, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
31.7 36.6 N/A

For February
Provided by: Australian Industry Group (AIG)
Official Release: HTML PDF

The Australian manufacturing sector contracted at a record pace in February, with the PMI falling 4.9 points to 31.7. Companies received fewer orders from both home and abroad as the global recession is starting to pressure exports and domestic demand is fragile. With key trading partners facing recessions, and demand for resources by countries such as China dwindling, Australian manufacturing is starting to feel the acute pain of a decrease in global trade. This news points to further interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia as Governor Glenn Stevens tries to revive consumer confidence and lending and boost the economy. The government in addition is passing and implementing a fiscal stimulus plan that will try to jump start the economy. Still these policy moves will come with some lag, and will depend on a recovery in the main economies of the world: the US, Europe, the UK and Japan. 

From the Release:

  •  
    • "Manufacturing activity fell for a ninth consecutive month in February. The Australian PMI® recorded 31.7 in February, a fall of 4.9 points on the previous month. All components fell and remained below 50, indicating falls in the level of each indicator. 
    • Ongoing falls in new orders and inventory rundowns continued to push production and employment lower. New orders fell for a tenth consecutive month in February, while inventories also fell again, for the fifth successive month. This de-stocking process in the face of persistent weaker demand has contributed to production falling for nine months in a row. As production has eased, employment has now dropped in twelve successive months. The ongoing deterioration in the developed and emerging economies including China and slower domestic growth continue to constrain the sector’s performance. 
    • Lower interest rates and the government’s fiscal stimulus to boost consumer confidence, infrastructure and housing spending should provide support for demand for manufactured products but this will happen with a lag. 
    • Input cost growth rose slightly, while selling prices fell marginally in February. Wages grew at the lowest rate since June 1998. " 
February
1st, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
36.6 33.7 N/A

For January
Provided by: Australian Industry Group (AIG)
Official Release: HTML PDF

From the Release: "Manufacturing activity contracted for an eighth consecutive month in January, although the rate of decline eased further from the November 2008 record low. The Australian Industry Group - PricewaterhouseCoopers Australian Performance of Manufacturing Index (Australian PMI®) registered 36.6 in January, up by 2.9 points on the previous month but still well below the 50 point level which separates expansion from contraction. 

Australian Industry Group (Ai Group) Chief Executive, Heather Ridout, said "The ongoing falls in new orders in particular highlight the challenging conditions manufacturers are facing in the early months of the New Year. As a result, businesses are working on reducing inventories, leading to lower production and consequently putting further pressure on employment. 

"While lower interest rates and government stimulatory and other measures are helpful, and may have impacted on the positive outcome for the food and beverage sector, more will need to be done and business will be looking for a further significant cut in interest rates this week," Mrs Ridout said. "

January
1st, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
33.7 32.7 N/A

For December
Provided by: Australian Industry Group (AIG)
Official Release: HTML PDF

From the Release:

  • "Manufacturing activity fell for a seventh consecutive month in December.
  • The Australian PMI® recorded 33.7 in December, an increase of 1.0 point on the previous month. Capacity utilisation fell to its lowest level in sixteen years.
  • All components remained below 50 points indicating falls in the levels of each indicator. New orders and unemployment fell, though at a slower rate than in November, while production, inventories and supplier deliveries fell faster than in November.
  • Wages, selling price and input cost price growth eased in December, while the fall in manufactured exports slowed over the month.
  • Lower official interest rates and government spending measures, global and local, have yet to have an impact on demand for manufactures.
  • The ongoing fall in activity reflects slower consumer demand, the weak construction sector and the impact of falling global demand for manufactures as reflected in international PMI measures.
  • Manufacturing activity fell in all states, particularly in Western Australia and Queensland."
November
30th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
32.7 40.4 N/A

For November
Provided by: Australian Industry Group (AIG)
Official Release: PDF (Save Link As...)

From the Release:

■ "Manufacturing activity fell for a sixth month in a row in November.
■ The seasonally adjusted Australian Industry Group-PricewaterhouseCoopers Australian PMI® fell solidly, by 7.7 points to 32.7, well below the 50 point mark separating expansion from contraction. This represents a second consecutive new low for the series since it was begun in 1992.
■ Recent results reflect an accelerating loss of consumer and business confidence, driven by worsening news on the global economy, falling household wealth, and the weak housing sector. This climate is being reflected in falling demand for manufactures.
■ November’s fall in the Australian PMI® reflects declines across all components of the index. Production fell for the sixth consecutive month and more strongly than in recent months. This reflected the ongoing decline in new orders, which fell rapidly and for the seventh consecutive month. In line with the easing of production, employment fell for the ninth month in November.
■ On the positive side, wages growth eased slightly and selling price growth was broadly stable. Input cost growth rose marginally.
■ Inventories fell moderately, while supplier deliveries fell solidly. Exports fell sharply in line with the decline in global manufactures trade."

November
2nd, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
40.4 47.2 N/A

For October
Provided by: Australian Industry Group (AIG)
Official Release: PDF (Save Link As...)

From the Release:

■ "Manufacturing activity fell for a fifth successive month in October.
■ The seasonally adjusted Australian Industry Group-PricewaterhouseCoopers Australian PMI® fell solidly, by 6.8 points to 40.4, below the 50 point mark separating expansion from contraction. This represents the lowest recorded level of the series since it was begun in 1992.
■ This month’s result reflects a combination of the uncertainties and loss of confidence associated with the worsening of the global financial crisis, slower world growth, particularly in the developed economies, and weaker domestic consumer demand.
■ These factors were reflected in declines across all components of the Australian PMI® in October. Production fell for the fifth consecutive month and more strongly than in recent months. This reflected the ongoing decline in new orders, which fell for the sixth consecutive month. In line with the easing of production, employment fell for the eighth month in October and at a more rapid pace.
■ On the positive side, input and wages costs growth eased significantly in October, while selling price growth also eased solidly.
■ Inventories and supplier deliveries fell markedly. Exports fell.
■ Manufacturing activity fell in all states." 

September
30th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
47.2 47.0 N/A

For August
Provided by: Australian Industry Group (AIG)
Official Release: PDF (Save Link As...)

Manufacturing activity fell for a fourth successive month in September.

From the Release:
■ "The seasonally adjusted Australian Industry Group PricewaterhouseCoopers Australian PMI® was stagnant in September, up by 0.2 points to 47.2, but remaining below the 50 point mark separating expansion from contraction.
■ Driving this month’s result, the lagged effects of higher official and commercial interest rates continue to squeeze consumer and housing-related demand. In addition, slower trading partner growth has compounded the impact of the high exchange rate on demand for Australian manufactures in both domestic and overseas markets.
■ Production fell again in September, though at a slightly slower rate than in August, in line with continued declines in new orders.
■ Input and wages costs grew strongly again in September, while selling price growth eased mildly, with the net effect a compression of profit margins.
■ Employment fell for a seventh consecutive month. Inventories rose marginally and supplier deliveries fell slightly. Exports rose solidly.
■ Manufacturers continued to cite positive effects on activity from mining related demand. Key negatives were: weak domestic demand; global instability; the soft housing sector; raw material costs; staff turnover; and import competition."