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Indicator Digest

Manufacturing PMI

Main Indicator: Manufacturing PMI

Most Recent Release

January
31st, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
51.0 48.5 N/A

For January
Provided by: Australian Industry Group (AIG)
Official Release: HTML PDF

From the Release: "Despite the continued improvement in the broader economy, manufacturers are finding revenue growth to be a major challenge. In January profit margins were squeezed further by a decline in selling prices and a slight acceleration in input costs and wages growth. In recent months, the rate of capacity utilisation in the manufacturing sector has lifted to be more or less in line with the long-run average, and it is therefore vital that manufacturers seek new ways in which to boost their levels of productivity."

Table of Past Data

3/314/305/316/308/29/3011/111/301/31/31
Actual33.430.137.549.344.552.051.751.248.251.0
Forecast
Previous31.733.230.137.538.451.752.051.751.248.5
Revised FromN/A33.4N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A

Past Releases

January
3rd, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
48.2 51.2 N/A

For December
Provided by: Australian Industry Group (AIG)
Current Release: HTML PDF

From the Release: Manufacturing activity fell slightly in December, following four consecutive rises. This reflected modest falls in production and input deliveries and a marginal decline in new orders. Inventories rose a little while employment grew slightly for a second month reflecting the lagged impact of recent higher activity...December’s result illustrates the tenuous nature of the recovery in manufacturing as it contends with a high exchange rate, moderate growth in domestic demand and a still weak global economy.
November
30th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
51.2 51.7 N/A

For November
Provided by: Australian Industry Group (AIG)
Official Release: HTML PDF

The Australian Industry Group-PricewaterhouseCoopers Australian performance of manufacturing index declined to a seasonally adjusted 51.2 in November from 51.7 in October, indicating Australia’s manufacturing sector expanded for a fourth straight month but at a slightly slower pace, the AiG and PwC reported. The production index increased to 54.0 in November from 53.0 in October, indicating manufacturing production continued its expansion for a fourth consecutive month. New orders posted a fourth straight expansion in November but at a much slower pace, with the new orders index falling to 51.9 from October’s 57.7. Manufacturing employment expanded for the first time in 23 months in November, with the employment index rising to 53.7 from October’s 44.6.

November
1st, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
51.7 52.0 N/A

For October
Provided by: Australian Industry Group (AIG)
Official Release: HTML PDF

From the Release: "The seasonally adjusted index remained relatively steady in October, down by 0.3 points to 51.7 (above the 50 point level separating expansion from contraction). The October growth was driven by a substantial lift in new orders and modestly higher production. However, further falls in employment detracted from manufacturing growth in October. Across manufacturing, the improvements of the past few months slowed in October with six of the twelve sub-sectors reporting growth, compared with seven in September.

Ai Group Chief Executive, Heather Ridout, said: "The recovery in manufacturing activity remains tentative, with exports still soft, policy stimulus easing and unemployment expected to temper consumer demand. The high exchange rate is adding to the pressures on manufacturers who export or compete with imports and will ease pressure on prices. In this regard, the high dollar is reducing the need for a significant tightening of monetary policy."

September
30th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
52.0 51.7 N/A

For September
Provided by: Australian Industry Group (AIG)
Official Release: HTML PDF

From the Release: "Manufacturing held on to its gains in September with activity expanding for the second consecutive month according to the latest Australian Industry Group - PricewaterhouseCoopers Australian Performance of Manufacturing Index (Australian PMI®). The seasonally adjusted index was up slightly in September by 0.3 points to 52.0, its highest level since December 2007, 21 months ago.

The continuing modest growth in September was driven by rises in production, inventories and supplier deliveries. Employment in the sector came close to stabilising, falling only slightly, following 20 months of declines. Across the sector, the improvement in manufacturing activity broadened with seven of the twelve sub-sectors growing in September, compared with six in August and four in July."

August
2nd, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
44.5 38.4 N/A

For July
Provided by: Australian Industry Group (AIG)
Official Release: HTML PDF

From the Release: "The seasonally adjusted Australian Industry Group - PricewaterhouseCoopers Australian Performance of Manufacturing Index (Australian PMI®) rose by 6.1 points to 44.5. The index remains below the 50 point level separating expansion from contraction, but is at its highest level since September 2008.

Ai Group Chief Executive, Heather Ridout, said: "The easing in the rate of decline in manufacturing activity is encouraging. This is supported by the direction of the Global PMI, which stood at 46.9 in June 2009. In Europe, Japan and the US, declines in new orders and production have eased to levels last seen around the middle of last year.

"It is clear that the manufacturing performance in Australia has been deeply influenced by fiscal and monetary stimulus and inventory rundowns. Looking beyond the monthly figures, the big question is whether these improvements will be sustained once these stimulatory forces have abated," Mrs Ridout said."

June
30th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
49.3 37.5 N/A

For une
Provided by: Australian Industry Group (AIG)
Official Release: HTML PDF

From the Release: "Manufacturing activity continued to weaken throughout June although the pace of decline eased slightly. The seasonally adjusted Australian Industry Group - PricewaterhouseCoopers Australian Performance of Manufacturing Index (Australian PMI®) rose by 0.9 points to 38.4, remaining below the 50.0 level separating expansion from contraction. While activity has now contracted for 13 consecutive months, the Australian PMI® in June was 7.1 points above last year's lowest reading in November 2008."

May
31st, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
37.5 30.1 N/A

For May
Provided by: Australian Industry Group (AIG)
Official Release: HTML PDF

From the Release:

  • "The seasonally adjusted Australian Industry Group-PricewaterhouseCoopers Australian PMI® rose by 7.4 points to 37.5. This is still well below the 50-point mark separating expansion from contraction, but is its highest point in the past seven months.
  • Six sectors, out of twelve, saw the rate of decline in activity improve in comparison with April.
  • The seasonally adjusted new orders sub-index rose strongly by 12.7 points to 39.4 in May, but remained well below 50, indicting ongoing falls in new orders.
  • A solid proportion of firms cited weak orders and sales as their key concern, with some pointing to weak demand from the resources, construction and retail sectors.
  • The sharp fall in inventories may indicate that production could be set to recover in the near future.
  • Exports fell for the ninth consecutive month.
  • Manufacturing activity fell in all states. The largest falls were recorded in New South Wales and South Australia."
April
30th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
30.1 33.2 33.4

For April
Provided by: Australian Industry Group (AIG)
Official Release: HTML PDF

From the Release: "Australian manufacturing industry output fell for the eleventh consecutive month in April, continuing to trawl uncharted lows. Producers cut inventories at the fastest rate in the index’s history in the face of a continuing drop in demand for new goods. The seasonally adjusted Australian Industry Group - PricewaterhouseCoopers Australian Performance of Manufacturing Index (Australian PMI®) fell by 3.1 points to a record low of 30.1 which is well below the 50-point mark that separates expansion from contraction. The April Australian PMI® showed falls in all States.

Australian Industry Group (Ai Group) Chief Executive, Heather Ridout, said: “There was no let up for manufacturers in April, with weakness and uncertainty continuing to characterise the sector. Weak demand in both domestic and global markets contributed to the ongoing contraction of the sector. However, the inventory index is at record lows, which should suggest that production levels will have to lift soon to replenish stocks.

“The infrastructure roll-out and lift in housing starts have the potential to translate into new orders for local industry. However, a concerted effort to ensure that Australian-based companies are aware of the opportunities and have a fair and open access to them is important. Ai Group will be pushing this agenda,” Mrs Ridout said."

March
31st, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
33.4 31.7 N/A

For March
Provided by: Australian Industry Group (AIG)
Official Release: HTML PDF

From the Release: The manufacturing industry continued to deteriorate in March although the rate of decline has eased with the Australian Industry Group - PricewaterhouseCoopers Australian Performance of Manufacturing Index (Australian PMI®) up slightly by 1.7 points to 33.4. This is well below the 50-point mark that separates expansion from contraction.

Australian Industry Group (Ai Group) Chief Executive, Heather Ridout, said: "The manufacturing industry continues to endure extremely challenging economic conditions with the March Australian PMI® showing that all sectors in all states, with the exception of Tasmania, declined in March.

"Production, capacity utilisation and exports remain in the doldrums, with the new orders reading - although a little up from February - not indicating any early pick up. As a result, employment fell across the board while wages growth continued to ease.

"The Australian PMI® suggests that economic conditions have not bottomed in the economy and that the outlook remains uncertain. Business is hunkering down and hoping that conditions will improve in the second half of the year. Whether they will, remains to be seen," Mrs Ridout said."