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Manufacturing PMI

Main Indicator: Manufacturing PMI

Most Recent Release

January
1st, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
33.7 32.7 N/A

For December
Provided by: Australian Industry Group (AIG)
Official Release: HTML PDF

From the Release:

  • "Manufacturing activity fell for a seventh consecutive month in December.
  • The Australian PMI® recorded 33.7 in December, an increase of 1.0 point on the previous month. Capacity utilisation fell to its lowest level in sixteen years.
  • All components remained below 50 points indicating falls in the levels of each indicator. New orders and unemployment fell, though at a slower rate than in November, while production, inventories and supplier deliveries fell faster than in November.
  • Wages, selling price and input cost price growth eased in December, while the fall in manufactured exports slowed over the month.
  • Lower official interest rates and government spending measures, global and local, have yet to have an impact on demand for manufactures.
  • The ongoing fall in activity reflects slower consumer demand, the weak construction sector and the impact of falling global demand for manufactures as reflected in international PMI measures.
  • Manufacturing activity fell in all states, particularly in Western Australia and Queensland."

Table of Past Data

3/314/306/16/307/318/319/3011/211/301/1
Actual51.252.751.247.046.947.047.240.432.733.7
Forecast
Previous51.452.352.751.247.046.947.047.240.432.7
Revised FromN/A51.2N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A

Past Releases

November
30th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
32.7 40.4 N/A

For November
Provided by: Australian Industry Group (AIG)
Official Release: PDF (Save Link As...)

From the Release:

■ "Manufacturing activity fell for a sixth month in a row in November.
■ The seasonally adjusted Australian Industry Group-PricewaterhouseCoopers Australian PMI® fell solidly, by 7.7 points to 32.7, well below the 50 point mark separating expansion from contraction. This represents a second consecutive new low for the series since it was begun in 1992.
■ Recent results reflect an accelerating loss of consumer and business confidence, driven by worsening news on the global economy, falling household wealth, and the weak housing sector. This climate is being reflected in falling demand for manufactures.
■ November’s fall in the Australian PMI® reflects declines across all components of the index. Production fell for the sixth consecutive month and more strongly than in recent months. This reflected the ongoing decline in new orders, which fell rapidly and for the seventh consecutive month. In line with the easing of production, employment fell for the ninth month in November.
■ On the positive side, wages growth eased slightly and selling price growth was broadly stable. Input cost growth rose marginally.
■ Inventories fell moderately, while supplier deliveries fell solidly. Exports fell sharply in line with the decline in global manufactures trade."

November
2nd, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
40.4 47.2 N/A

For October
Provided by: Australian Industry Group (AIG)
Official Release: PDF (Save Link As...)

From the Release:

■ "Manufacturing activity fell for a fifth successive month in October.
■ The seasonally adjusted Australian Industry Group-PricewaterhouseCoopers Australian PMI® fell solidly, by 6.8 points to 40.4, below the 50 point mark separating expansion from contraction. This represents the lowest recorded level of the series since it was begun in 1992.
■ This month’s result reflects a combination of the uncertainties and loss of confidence associated with the worsening of the global financial crisis, slower world growth, particularly in the developed economies, and weaker domestic consumer demand.
■ These factors were reflected in declines across all components of the Australian PMI® in October. Production fell for the fifth consecutive month and more strongly than in recent months. This reflected the ongoing decline in new orders, which fell for the sixth consecutive month. In line with the easing of production, employment fell for the eighth month in October and at a more rapid pace.
■ On the positive side, input and wages costs growth eased significantly in October, while selling price growth also eased solidly.
■ Inventories and supplier deliveries fell markedly. Exports fell.
■ Manufacturing activity fell in all states." 

September
30th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
47.2 47.0 N/A

For August
Provided by: Australian Industry Group (AIG)
Official Release: PDF (Save Link As...)

Manufacturing activity fell for a fourth successive month in September.

From the Release:
■ "The seasonally adjusted Australian Industry Group PricewaterhouseCoopers Australian PMI® was stagnant in September, up by 0.2 points to 47.2, but remaining below the 50 point mark separating expansion from contraction.
■ Driving this month’s result, the lagged effects of higher official and commercial interest rates continue to squeeze consumer and housing-related demand. In addition, slower trading partner growth has compounded the impact of the high exchange rate on demand for Australian manufactures in both domestic and overseas markets.
■ Production fell again in September, though at a slightly slower rate than in August, in line with continued declines in new orders.
■ Input and wages costs grew strongly again in September, while selling price growth eased mildly, with the net effect a compression of profit margins.
■ Employment fell for a seventh consecutive month. Inventories rose marginally and supplier deliveries fell slightly. Exports rose solidly.
■ Manufacturers continued to cite positive effects on activity from mining related demand. Key negatives were: weak domestic demand; global instability; the soft housing sector; raw material costs; staff turnover; and import competition."

August
31st, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
47.0 46.9 N/A

For August
Provided by: Australian Industry Group (AIG)
Official Release: PDF

From the Release

■ "Manufacturing activity fell for a third consecutive month in August. Tighter financial conditions have driven an easing of consumer demand and weaker housing construction, which have reduced demand for manufactures. Manufacturing is also being buffeted by weaker global growth, rising input costs and the still high Australian dollar.
■ The seasonally adjusted Australian Industry Group-PricewaterhouseCoopers Australian PMI® rose marginally in August, by 0.1 points to 47.0, to remain below the 50 point mark separating expansion from contraction.
■ Production and employment fell again in August, though at a slightly slower rate than in July. New orders fell for a fourth consecutive month, putting pressure on future production. Inventories and supplier deliveries were stable. Exports fell.
■ Input costs grew strongly again in August while selling price growth accelerated. Wage increases eased in August but remained solid. Capacity utilisation declined moderately.
■ Manufacturers again cited positive effects on activity from infrastructure and mining related demand. Key negatives were: a weak retail sector; soft housing construction; raw material costs and shortages, especially steel; and import competition."

July
31st, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
46.9 47.0 N/A

For July
Provided by: Australian Industry Group (AIG)
Official Release: PDF

From the Release:

"■ Manufacturing activity fell for the second consecutive month in July. The slower domestic economy, higher interest rates and consequent softness in housing construction are driving the weakening in activity. These factors are being compounded by weaker global growth, rising costs and the high Australian dollar.
■ The seasonally adjusted Australian Industry Group-PricewaterhouseCoopers Australian PMI® fell by 0.1 points to 46.9 in July.
■ Production and employment fell again in July, though at a slower rate than in June. New orders and stocks both fell solidly, putting downward pressure on production. Supplier deliveries were stable. Exports rose moderately following two months of falls.
■ Input costs grew strongly but at a slower rate in July, while selling prices growth was stable. Wage increases rose in July after four months of moderate easing in growth. Capacity utilisation recovered from a sharp drop in June.
■ Manufacturers cited positive effects on activity from solid infrastructure and mining related demand. On the negative side were weaker orders, notably related to housing construction; raw material costs, especially steel, aluminium and petrol; problems with staff retention; and the Western Australian gas disruption."

June
30th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
47.0 51.2 N/A

For June
Provided by: Australian Industry Group (AIG)
Official Release: PDF

The seasonally adjusted Australian Industry Group-PricewaterhouseCoopers Australian PMI® fell, by 4.2 points in the month, to 47.0, down from 51.2 points in May.

From the Release:

" ■ Manufacturing activity fell in June, continuing a six-month period of softer performance since the beginning of the year. A weaker global economy, the high Australian dollar and slowing growth in the domestic economy, notably in housing construction, continue to pressure the sector.
■ Production, employment, and new orders all fell solidly in June, while inventory growth remained firm. Supplier deliveries rose marginally. Exports fell for the second consecutive month.
■ Input costs grew strongly again in June, while selling prices growth softened modestly, suggesting some margin squeeze. Growth in wages also eased slightly and for the fourth consecutive month in June. Capacity utilisation fell in line with lower production.
■ Manufacturers cited positive effects on activity from solid mining and mining-related construction demand. On the negative side were weaker orders; skills shortages; raw material costs, especially steel and petrol; slower housing-related demand; and the Western Australian gas outage.

June
1st, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
51.2 52.7 N/A

For May
Provided by: Australian Industry Group (AIG)
Official Release: PDF

The seasonally adjusted Australian Industry Group-Price Water House Coopers Manufacturing PMI fell by 1.5 points to 51.2, following a 0.4 rise in April.

From the Release:
"■ Manufacturing activity was subdued again in May, for the fifth consecutive month. Slower global growth, the rising Australian dollar and signs of slower growth in the domestic economy, reflecting higher interest rates, continue to constrain manufacturing.
■ New orders fell slightly, reflecting slower domestic demand conditions, while employment fell a little for the third consecutive month. Production growth eased, expanding only slightly in May. Overall activity in May was supported by a moderate lift in stocks and input deliveries. Exports fell.
■ In line with other indicators, input cost price growth remained strong in May, while selling prices growth accelerated modestly. Growth in wages was stable in May, while capacity utilisation fell slightly.
■ Manufacturers cited positive effects on activity from solid mining and infrastructure related demand and demand from China. On the negative side were weaker US growth; lack of skilled labour and staff turnover; raw material costs especially steel, fuel and grains; slower housing-related demand and the high $A.
April
30th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
52.7 52.3 51.2

For April
Provided by: Australian Industry Group (AIG)
Official Release: PDF

Manufacturing growth continues to be modest. High interest rates and global uncertainty is causing manufacturers to stall prodcution. Nevertheless, the production sub-index rose to 53.3 from 51. The new orders sub-index continues to perform well. The high Australian dollar is making exports less attractive as well. Employment eased for a second straight month. Overall the manufacturing report showed mixed performance. Interest rate implications are cloudy because of inflation coupled with slower growth. Manufacturers are waiting for clues to whether scale back or ramp up activity.

Keys from the release:

  • "Production grew moderately in April while employment fell for the second consecutive month. Overall activity in April was supported by a moderate lift in new orders and input deliveries while stocks also rose, though more slowly than in March. Exports growth eased.

  • Consistent with other indicators, input cost growth remained strong though it fell mildly in April. Selling prices growth remained solid. Growth in wages eased again in April, while capacity utilisation rose slightly.

  • Manufacturers cited positive effects on activity from solid demand from miners and infrastructure development and improved demand from the agricultural sector following recent rains. On the negative side were weaker global growth; lack of skilled labour; raw material costs; the high $A and Chinese competition."
  • March
    31st, 2008
    Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
    51.2 51.4 N/A
    For March
    Provided by: Australian Industry Group (AIG)

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