For August
Provided by: Institute of Supply Management
Latest Relase: Report

Prices: 77.0, pr. 88.5 (Jul), 91.5 (Jun), 87.0 (May), 84.5 (Apr)
New Orders: 48.3, pr. 45.0 (Jul), 49.6 (Jun), 49.7 (May), 46.5 (Apr)
Production: 52.1, pr. 52.9 (Jul), 51.5 (Jun), 51.2 (May), 49.1 (Apr)
Employment: 49.7, pr. 51.9 (Jul), 43.7 (Jun), 45.5 (May), 45.4 (Apr)
Inventories: 49.3, pr. 45.0 (Jul), 51.2 (Jun), 48.0 (May), 48.1 (Apr)

From the Release: "The PMI indicates a slight decline in manufacturing during August. This continues the 2008 trend toward negligible growth or contraction each month, but ultimately results in very little overall change in the sector. This month's report is showing the first signs of lower prices as the Prices Index fell significantly, though still at an inflationary level. Export orders picked up additional momentum, and that is important to manufacturers as domestic demand remains soft for most industries."

For July
Provided by: Institute of Supply Management
Latest Relase: Report

Prices: 88.5, pr. 91.5 (Jun), 87.0 (May), 84.5 (Apr), 83.5 (Mar),
New Orders: 45.0, pr. 49.6 (Jun), 49.7 (May), 46.5 (Apr), 46.5 (Mar)
Production: 52.9, pr. 51.5 (Jun), 51.2 (May), 49.1 (Apr), 48.7 (Mar)
Employment: 51.9, pr. 43.7 (Jun), 45.5 (May), 45.4 (Apr), 49.2 (Mar)
Inventories: 45.0 pr. 51.2 (Jun), 48.0 (May), 48.1 (Apr), 44.9 (Mar)

Manufacturing activity in the US just managed to stay in expansion, posting a 50 for the overall composite index. New orders and inventories slipped, but the production sub indexe grew compared to last month. Employment showed a sharp increase from 43.7 to 51.9, the main positive change this month. Prices paid were also down from 91.5 to 88.5. With the index boosted by employment rather than orders the report may not be all that great.

From the Release: "In this month's report, manufacturers indicate no change in overall business activity when comparing July to June. This continues a trend biased toward relatively minor contraction established more than 12 months ago. Manufacturing has maintained a reasonable level of activity during a period in which other sectors of the economy have been in recession. While the PMI indicates little to no change has occurred during this period, it would be hard to convince manufacturers who are faced with higher costs and uncertain demand that there is little change taking place."

For June
Provided by: Institute of Supply Management
Latest Relase: Report

Prices: 91.5, pr. 87.0 (May), 84.5 (Apr), 83.5 (Mar), 75.5 (Feb)
New Orders: 49.6, pr. 49.7 (May), 46.5 (Apr), 46.5 (Mar), 49.1 (Feb)
Production: 51.5, pr. 51.2 (May), 49.1 (Apr), 48.7 (Mar), 50.7 (Feb)
Employment: 43.7, pr. 45.5 (May), 45.4 (Apr), 49.2 (Mar), 46.0 (Feb)
Inventories: 51.2, pr. 48.0 (May), 48.1 (Apr), 44.9 (Mar), 45.4 (Feb)

The ISM Manufacturing Index posted a 50.2 in June, bringing the indicator into expansion territory after 4 months of readings below 50. Prices continued to accelerate, hitting 91.5, the highest measure since July 1979, as firms deal with higher input costs. Production and inventories improved, while the employment sub-index declined to 43.7. Whereas the UK and Euro-zone are experiencing contraction in their latest reports, it seems that manufacturing activity in the US may be bottoming out, though it too early to tell.    

From the Release: "The manufacturing sector showed a slight improvement in June as the PMI registered above 50 percent after four months of decline. While the PMI indicates minimal change is taking place month over month that is hardly the situation. When viewed from the manufacturer's perspective, they are experiencing higher prices for their inputs while demand for their products is slowing.

What respondents are saying:

• "The shock waves from high crude price continue to put pressure on derivative pricing." (Chemical Products)
• "Business appears to have bottomed out." (Transportation Equipment)
• "Seeing renewed interest in outstanding quotes." (Machinery)
• "Volume is normal, and we are able to recover some of the raw material (steel cost) increases." (Fabricated Metal Products)
• "Commodity bubble is killing profitability." (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
• "Orders have slowed, and prices for metals are going up." (Computer & Electronic Products)"

For May
Provided by: Institute of Supply Management
Latest Relase: Report

Prices: 87.0, pr. 84.5, 83.5 (Mar), 75.5 (Feb)
New Orders: 49.7, pr. 46.5, 46.5 (Mar), 49.1 (Feb)
Production: 51.2, pr. 49.1, 48.7 (Mar), 50.7 (Feb)
Employment: 45.5, pr. 45.4, 49.2 (Mar), 46.0 (Feb)
Inventories: 48.0, pr. 48.1, 44.9 (Mar), 45.4 (Feb)

Manufacturing activity contracted again, but edged up from 48.6 in April to 49.6. While the manufacturing sector is slowing, the PMI is above 41.1, which represents that the economy is still growing, though at a slower pace. Outputs quickened for the first time since February, and new orders improved significantly from April. The employment component also improved as hiring ticked up. The less covetted export continues to improve as the dollar has been losing value this year, making exports more attractive. With new orders bouncing back, and export orders continuing to climb, the demand seems to be holding up the economy above the murky waters of recession.

Prices are skyrocketting according to respondents. The prices index has been surging and is now the highest since the 88 in April 2004. From the release:

The ISM Prices Index registered 87 percent in May, indicating manufacturers are paying higher prices on average when compared to April. This is the highest reading for the index since it registered 88 percent in April 2004. While 78 percent of respondents reported paying higher prices and 4 percent reported paying lower prices, 18 percent of supply executives reported paying the same prices as the preceding month. A Prices Index above 47.4 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Index of Manufacturers Prices.

For April
Provided by: Institute of Supply Management
Official Relase: Report

Prices: 84.5, pr. 83.5 (Mar), 75.5 (Feb)
New Orders: 46.5, pr. 46.5 (Mar), 49.1 (Feb)
Production: 49.1, pr. 48.7 (Mar), 50.7 (Feb)
Employment: 45.4, pr. 49.2 (Mar), 46.0 (Feb)
Inventories: 48.1, pr. 44.9 (Mar), 45.4 (Feb)

The Manufacturing sector matched March's figure of 48.6, the 3rd month in a row that activity has contracted. Despite that fact, the release helped the Dollar extend some of its earlier gains vs the Euro as the result came in better than expected. Prices continue to rise, as 84.5% of respondents said they saw higher prices for commodities and energy and their purchasing power declines as the Dollar continues to fall in value.

From the Release:

"The manufacturing sector failed to grow in April as the PMI fell below 50 percent for the third consecutive month. Manufacturers are in a situation where both new orders and production are slowly declining, but prices continue to rise at highly inflationary rates. Bright spots this month are the growth in the Backlog of Orders Index after six consecutive months of decline, continued strength in new export orders and a reduction in customers' inventories."

For April
Provided by: Institute of Supply Management
Official Relase: Report

Prices: 84.5, pr. 83.5 (Mar), 75.5 (Feb)
New Orders: 46.5, pr. 46.5 (Mar), 49.1 (Feb)
Production: 49.1, pr. 48.7 (Mar), 50.7 (Feb)
Employment: 45.4, pr. 49.2 (Mar), 46.0 (Feb)
Inventories: 48.1, pr. 44.9 (Mar), 45.4 (Feb)

The Manufacturing sector matched March's figure of 48.6, the 3rd month in a row that activity has contracted. Despite that fact, the release helped the Dollar extend some of its earlier gains vs the Euro as the result came in better than expected. Prices continue to rise, as 84.5% of respondents said they saw higher prices for commodities and energy and their purchasing power declines as the Dollar continues to fall in value.

From the Release:

"The manufacturing sector failed to grow in April as the PMI fell below 50 percent for the third consecutive month. Manufacturers are in a situation where both new orders and production are slowly declining, but prices continue to rise at highly inflationary rates. Bright spots this month are the growth in the Backlog of Orders Index after six consecutive months of decline, continued strength in new export orders and a reduction in customers' inventories."

For March
Provided by: Institute of Supply Management

Prices:             83.5, pr. 75.5
New Orders:     46.5, pr. 49.1
Production:      48.7. pr. 50.7
Employment:    49.2, pr. 46.0

Though economic activity in the manufacturing sector failed to grow in March, the result from the ISM was better than expected. Economists had predicted a further fall of the index, but it managed to improve from February's result. The index was helped by an increase to the employment and deliveries, and backlog of orders sub gauges, though new orders and production declined. Prices surged, increasing 8 percentage points to 83.5. 

The Dollar continued its overnight rally following the news, especially against the Yen.  

Manufacturing contracted in February as the PMI registered 48.3%. New Orders, employment, and inventories all contracted. Production showed growth. According to the Institue of Supply Management:

A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.
A PMI in excess of 41.1 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the PMI indicates the overall economy is growing and the manufacturing sector is contracting at this time.

The dollar has already slid into uncharted territories against the EUR, CAD and NZD. Although more reports will reiterate economic weakness and inflation, the market will now need to factor in whether the slowdown will be contained to the US or whether it will drag down its major economic partners. Australia and New Zealand have been a pocket of growth among the majors, and Japan is also showing some steam as well with recent releases. Europe, the UK, and Canada will be the economies in question.

For February

Release from the Institute for Supply Management

Prices continue to rise for manufaturer, though not as rapid as in January. As recent manufacturing reports such as the Empire State and Philadelphia Fed reports have shown, activity is slowing down while prices are rising. We have been reiterating this trend of stagflation.

For January
Provided by Institute of Supply Management

Production levels increased in January after contracting in December. The weak dollar boosted exports to help manufacturing. The production index rose from 48.6 to 55.2, while the exports index rose to 58.5 from 52.5. New Orders still contracted slightly with 49.5 though at a smaller magnitude than December's 46.9. The employment index reflected today's poor non-farm employment report, falling to 47.1 fro m 48.7. 

For January

Prices of all commodities but zinc increased in January. Manufacturers are pressured by record high commodity prices. All industries indexed, except for coal products, reported paying higher prices.