New Orders: 51.1, pr. 47.2 (Apr), 41.2 (Mar), 33.1 (Feb), 33.2 (Jan),
22.7 (Dec), 27.9 (Nov), 32.2 (Oct), 38.8 (Sep), 48.3 (Aug)
Production: 46.0, pr. 40.4 (Apr), 36.4 (Mar), 36.3 (Feb), 32.1 (Jan),
25.5 (Dec), 31.5 (Nov), 34.1 (Oct), 40.8 (Sep), 52.1 (Aug)
Employment: 34.3, pr. 34.4 (Apr), 28.1 (Mar), 26.1 (Feb), 29.9 (Jan),
29.9 (Dec), 34.2 (Nov), 34.6 (Oct), 41.8 (Sep), 49.7 (Aug)
Prices: 43.5, pr. 32.0 (Apr), 31.0 (Mar), 29.0 (Feb), 29.0 (Jan), 18.0 (Dec),
25.5 (Nov), 37.0 (Oct), 53.5 (Sep), 77.0 (Aug)

The US manufacturing sector continues to see its pace of decline slow, as today's ISM report rose to 42.8 for May from the 40.1 seen the previous month. The new orders index rose above 50 for the first time since the recession began a signal that companies may have run down inventory and are placing orders once again. The production index rose to its highest level since August. The data adds one more piece of evidence that the recession is starting to weaken, though the employment index did not show any improvement.

From the Release: "While employment and inventories continue to decline at a rapid rate and the sector continued to contract during the month, there are signs of improvement. May is the first month of growth in the New Orders Index since November 2007, with nine of 18 industries reporting growth. New orders are considered a leading indicator, and the index has risen rapidly after bottoming at 23.1 percent in December 2008. Also, the Customers' Inventories Index remained below 50 percent for the second consecutive month, offering encouragement that supply chains are starting to free themselves of excess inventories as nine industries report their customers' inventories as 'too low'. The prices that manufacturers pay for raw materials and services continued to decline, but at a slower rate than in April."

New Orders: 47.2, pr. 41.2 (Mar), 33.1 (Feb), 33.2 (Jan), 22.7 (Dec),
27.9 (Nov), 32.2 (Oct), 38.8 (Sep), 48.3 (Aug)
Production: 40.4, pr. 36.4 (Mar), 36.3 (Feb), 32.1 (Jan), 25.5 (Dec),
31.5 (Nov), 34.1 (Oct), 40.8 (Sep), 52.1 (Aug)
Employment: 34.4, pr. 28.1 (Mar), 26.1 (Feb), 29.9 (Jan), 29.9 (Dec),
34.2 (Nov), 34.6 (Oct), 41.8 (Sep), 49.7 (Aug)
Prices: 32.0, pr. 31.0 (Mar), 29.0 (Feb), 29.0 (Jan), 18.0 (Dec),
25.5 (Nov), 37.0 (Oct), 53.5 (Sep), 77.0 (Aug)

The second quarter got off to a good start as the ISM manufacturing index showed a significant improvement, increasing to 40.1. Its another sign that the contraction in the sector is moderating. The main sub-gauges were all below 50 still, but its encouraging for economists monitoring the US economy to see new orders up to 47.2 from last month's 41.2. The production measure also saw an uptick, as did employment. 

From the Release: "The decline in the manufacturing sector continues to moderate. After six consecutive months below the 40-percent mark, the PMI, driven by the New Orders Index at 47.2 percent, shows a significant improvement. While this is a big step forward, there is still a large gap that must be closed before manufacturing begins to grow once again. The Customers' Inventories Index indicates that channels are paring inventories to acceptable levels after reporting inventories as 'too high' for eight consecutive months. The prices manufacturers pay for their goods and services continue to decline; however, copper prices have bottomed and are now starting to rise. This is definitely a good start for the second quarter."

New Orders: 41.2, pr. 33.1 (Feb), 33.2 (Jan), 22.7 (Dec), 27.9 (Nov),
32.2 (Oct), 38.8 (Sep), 48.3 (Aug)
Production: 36.4, pr. 36.3 (Feb), 32.1 (Jan), 25.5 (Dec), 31.5 (Nov),
34.1 (Oct), 40.8 (Sep), 52.1 (Aug)
Employment: 28.1, pr. 26.1 (Feb), 29.9 (Jan), 29.9 (Dec), 34.2 (Nov),
34.6 (Oct), 41.8 (Sep), 49.7 (Aug)
Prices: 31.0, pr. 29.0 (Feb), 29.0 (Jan), 18.0 (Dec), 25.5 (Nov),
37.0 (Oct), 53.5 (Sep), 77.0 (Aug)

The ISM manufacturing index showed the pace of contraction in the sector slowed in March. Though shrinking for the 14th consecutive month, there were some encouraging signs from the data including a big improvement in new orders and a hastening in the pace of inventory clearance. The pace at which employment contracted eased as well. 

From the Release: ""The rapid decline in manufacturing appears to have moderated somewhat, as the PMI remains in the mid-30s for a third consecutive month. While the PMI is slightly higher in March, the New Orders Index offers greater encouragement, as it rose above the 40-percent mark for the first time in seven months. The Production Index showed no benefit as yet from the improvement in new orders, as it continued to decline at a rate similar to March. The rate of decline in the Employment Index slowed slightly, and the same held true for the Prices Index. A special question was asked with regard to the Economic Stimulus Package, and five of the 18 manufacturing industries expect to derive some benefit from the stimulus." 

New Orders: 33.1, pr. 33.2 (Jan), 22.7 (Dec), 27.9 (Nov), 32.2 (Oct),
38.8 (Sep), 48.3 (Aug)
Production: 36.3, pr. 32.1 (Jan), 25.5 (Dec), 31.5 (Nov), 34.1 (Oct),
40.8 (Sep), 52.1 (Aug)
Employment: 26.1, pr. 29.9 (Jan), 29.9 (Dec), 34.2 (Nov), 34.6 (Oct),
41.8 (Sep), 49.7 (Aug)
Prices: 29.0, pr. 29.0 (Jan), 18.0 (Dec), 25.5 (Nov), 37.0 (Oct),
53.5 (Sep), 77.0 (Aug)

The US manufacturing sector contracted at around the same pace in February as it did in January. The ISM manufacturing PMI improved slightly to 35.8, from January's 35.5, though any number below 50 means contraction in the sector. Expectations had been for a decline in the data to 34.0, so today's result surprised forecasts on the upside. Still this level is consistent with a rapid decline in the sector. The production gauge improved to 36.3 from 32.1, while the employment gauge fell lower to 26.1 from 29.9. Prices remained stable.

From the Release: ""Manufacturing continues to decline at a rapid rate in February. While production has slowed its rate of decline, employment continues to fall precipitously. Prices continue to decline, but price advantages are not sufficient to overcome manufacturers' apparent loss of demand. Survey respondents appear generally pessimistic about recovery in 2009. Some express hope that the stimulus package will help their industry.""

New Orders: 33.2, pr. 22.7 (Dec), 27.9 (Nov), 32.2 (Oct), 38.8 (Sep),
48.3 (Aug)
Production: 32.1, pr. 25.5 (Dec), 31.5 (Nov), 34.1 (Oct), 40.8 (Sep),
52.1 (Aug)
Employment: 29.9, pr. 29.9 (Dec), 34.2 (Nov), 34.6 (Oct), 41.8 (Sep),
49.7 (Aug)
Prices: 29.0, pr. 18.0 (Dec), 25.5 (Nov), 37.0 (Oct), 53.5 (Sep), 77.0 (Aug)

US manufacturing contracted at a slower pace in January, surprising forecasts that expected another drop in the ISM index from the record low we saw in December. The manufacturing index rose to 35.6, led by increases in new orders, production and prices. Of course any level below 50 represents contraction compared to expansion, and the situation in manufacturing is not expected to reverse course until consumer confidence and spending returns.

New Orders: 22.7, pr. 27.9 (Nov), 32.2 (Oct), 38.8 (Sep), 48.3 (Aug)
Production: 25.5, pr. 31.5 (Nov), 34.1 (Oct), 40.8 (Sep), 52.1 (Aug)
Employment: 29.9, pr. 34.2 (Nov), 34.6 (Oct), 41.8 (Sep), 49.7 (Aug)
Prices: 18.0, pr. 25.5 (Nov), 37.0 (Oct), 53.5 (Sep), 77.0 (Aug)

US manufacturing ended 2008 in a grim state, falling to its lowest level since June 1980. The index fell 3.8 points to 32.4in December from 36.2 in November. All the main sub-gauges showed further deterioration with new orders down to their worst level since 1948. The prices index continued to fall showing an ongoing retreat in inflationary pressures. Only in August this sub-gauge was as high as 77, as oil and other commodities felt the last stages of their speculative bubble and fell in response to the onset of the current global recession. That is the weakest reading for prices since June 1949.  

From the Release: "Manufacturing activity continued to decline at a rapid rate during the month of December. The decline covers the full breadth of manufacturing industries, as none of the industries in the sector report growth at this time. New orders have contracted for 13 consecutive months, and are at the lowest level on record going back to January 1948. Order backlogs have fallen to the lowest level since ISM began tracking the Backlog of Orders Index in January 1993. Manufacturers are reducing inventories and shutting down capacity to offset the slower rate of activity."

New Orders: 27.9, pr. 32.2 (Oct), 38.8 (Sep), 48.3 (Aug), 45.0 (Jul)
Production: 31.5, pr. 34.1 (Oct), 40.8 (Sep), 52.1 (Aug), 52.9 (Jul)
Employment: 34.2, pr. 34.6 (Oct), 41.8 (Sep), 49.7 (Aug), 51.9 (Jul)
Prices: 25.5, pr. 37.0 (Oct), 53.5 (Sep), 77.0 (Aug), 88.5 (Jul)

The manufacturing sector contracted in November at the fastest pace in 26 years, adding to the woes facing the US economy. The Euro-zone, UK, China, and Russia all saw similar weak performances as the world's major economies succumb to a global slowdown. The financial crisis has seeped into main street as retail sales fall and household spending is being curtailed in the face of weakening economic activity. In response to weaker sales and demand, companies are cutting production. The news will add pressure on policy member at the Fed to continue lowering rates and on the government to pass some kind of package to stimulate the economy. 

From the Release: "When comparing November to October, the PMI indicates a continuing rapid rate of contraction in manufacturing. New orders have contracted for 12 consecutive months, and are at the lowest level since June 1980 when the index registered 24.2 percent. Order backlogs have fallen to the lowest level since ISM began tracking the Backlog of Orders Index in January 1993. The Prices Index at 25.5 percent indicates that commodity prices continue to decline at a rapid rate. This is the lowest reading for the index since May 1949 when it registered 20.1 percent.

Manufacturing contracted in November as the PMI registered 36.2 percent, 2.7 percentage points lower than the 38.9 percent reported in October. This is the lowest reading since May 1982 when the PMI registered 35.5 percent. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting."

New Orders: 32.2, pr. 38.8 (Sep), 48.3 (Aug), 45.0 (Jul), 49.6 (Jun)
Production: 34.1, pr. 40.8 (Sep), 52.1 (Aug), 52.9 (Jul), 51.5 (Jun)
Employment: 34.6, pr. 41.8 (Sep), 49.7 (Aug), 51.9 (Jul), 43.7 (Jun)
Prices: 37.0, pr. 53.5 (Sep), 77.0 (Aug), 88.5 (Jul), 91.5 (Jun)

New orders, production, and employment components all contracted significantly, while prices dropped. This pulled the overall index down 4.6 points to 38.9, the lowest since September, 1982. 50 is the expansion/contraction level for the manufacturing sector, while a long period of 41.1 or above indicates general economic expansion. Thus the current level suggests contraction in both manufacturing and the overall economy. Also, the exports component dropped 11 points to 41, and reflected the global slowdown. The Apparel, Leather and Allied Products was the only industry that saw improvements in new orders, production and employment.

Norbert J, Ore, C.P.M, Charit of ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee commented:

"The PMI indicates a significantly faster rate of decline in manufacturing when comparing October to September. It appears that manufacturing is experiencing significant demand destruction as a result of recent events, with members indicating challenges associated with the financial crisis, interruptions from the Gulf hurricane, and the lagging impact from higher oil prices. This is the lowest level for the PMI since September 1982 when it registered 38.8 percent. In this report, we see inflationary pressures dissolving as the Prices Index fell to 37 percent, the lowest since December 2001 when it registered 33.2 percent. Export orders also contracted for the first time following 70 months of growth."

For October

See "ISM Manufacturing Index" for details

For September
Provided by: Institute of Supply Management
Latest Relase: Report

Prices: 53.5, pr. 77.0 (Aug), 88.5 (Jul), 91.5 (Jun), 87.0 (May)
New Orders: 38.8, pr. 48.3 (Aug), 45.0 (Jul), 49.6 (Jun), 49.7 (May)
Production: 40.8, pr. 52.1 (Aug), 52.9 (Jul), 51.5 (Jun), 51.2 (May)
Employment: 41.8, pr. 49.7 (Aug), 51.9 (Jul), 43.7 (Jun), 45.5 (May)
Inventories: 43.4, pr. 49.3 (Aug), 45.0 (Jul), 51.2 (Jun), 48.0 (May)

US factories had a terrible month in September after coming close back to expansion territory in August. Today's figure of 43.5 was sharply lower than expectations of a 49.5 reading, and is the lowest level since October 2001, the month after the terrorist attacks on the United States. The drop in the index between August and September was the biggest since 1984. With the credit crunch intensifying in the latter part of the month the figures for October may be just as bad. Us stocks were weaker in morning trading, with the Dow Jones down 170 points by 10:20 AM EST.

From the Release: "The report was issued today by Norbert J. Ore, C.P.M., chair of the Institute for Supply Management™ Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "The PMI indicates a significantly faster rate of decline in manufacturing during September, marking a departure from the 2008 trend toward negligible growth or contraction each month. This is the lowest level for the PMI since October 2001. This month's report is showing prices rising at a much slower rate, as the Prices Index fell to the lowest level in 21 months. Export orders continued to increase, but at a slower rate than in August."

The Dollar though gaining on the even weaker Euro and Pound, was down against the Yen as risk aversion picked up again in NY trading.