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Indicator Digest

Commodity Price Index
Measuring the price changes of commodities is important to countries such as New Zealand and Australia which rely on exports of their goods.

Main Indicator: RBA Commodity Index y/y

Most Recent Release

April
1st, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
7.6% 13.2% 19.1%

For March
Provided by: Reserve Bank of Australia

Commodity Index m/m: pr. 0.3% (Feb), 0.8% (Jan), -4.0% (Dec),
-2.7% (Nov), -4.6% (Oct), 0.7% (Sep), 2.0% (Aug), 3.6% (Jul), 7.9% (Jun),
6.1% (May), 9.4% (Apr)

Table of Past Data

7/18/19/110/111/312/11/22/23/24/1
Actual38.2%41.1%45.2%43.4%32.4%35.0%34.4%29.3%19.1%7.6%
Forecast
Previous28.6%36.5%41.9%47.0%42.3%35.9%35.0%34.3%28.6%13.2%
Revised FromN/AN/A41.1%N/AN/A32.4%N/AN/AN/A19.1%

Past Releases

March
2nd, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
19.1% 28.6% N/A

For February
Provided by: Reserve Bank of Australia

Commodity Index m/m: 0.3%, pr. 0.8% (Jan), -4.0% (Dec), -2.7% (Nov),
-4.6% (Oct), 0.7% (Sep), 2.0% (Aug), 3.6% (Jul), 7.9% (Jun), 6.1% (May),
9.4% (Apr)

From the Release: "Preliminary estimates for February indicate that the index rose by 0.3 per cent (on a monthly average basis) in SDR terms, following a slight increase (revised) in January. The largest contributor to the rise in February was the increase in the price of gold. The prices of coking coal and beef and veal fell. In Australian dollar terms, the index rose by 2.8 per cent in February, following a fall of 1.5 per cent (revised) in January."

February
2nd, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
29.3% 34.3% N/A

For January
Provided by: Reserve Bank of Australia

Commodity Index m/m: 0.8%, pr. -4.0% (Dec), -2.7% (Nov), -4.6% (Oct),
0.7% (Sep), 2.0% (Aug), 3.6% (Jul), 7.9% (Jun), 6.1% (May), 9.4% (Apr)

January
2nd, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
34.4% 35.0% N/A

For December
Provided by: Reserve Bank of Australia

Commodity Index m/m: pr. -2.7%, -4.6% (Oct), 0.7% (Sep), 2.0% (Aug),
3.6% (Jul), 7.9% (Jun), 6.1% (May), 9.4% (Apr)

December
1st, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
35.0% 35.9% 32.4%

For November
Provided by: Reserve Bank of Australia

Commodity Index m/m: -2.7%, pr. -4.6% (rev from -5.1%, Oct), 0.7% (Sep),
2.0% (Aug), 3.6% (Jul), 7.9% (Jun), 6.1% (May), 9.4% (Apr)

Commodity prices fell for a third straight month in November, as the price of copper, aluminum, beef and veal, and gold were the largest negative contributors. In Australian dollar terms prices rose 0.5%, as the weak Australian currency kept the measure inflated at record high.  

November
3rd, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
32.4% 42.3% N/A

For October
Provided by: Reserve Bank of Australia

Commodity Index m/m: -5.1%, pr. 0.7% (rev up from 0.5% - Sep),
2.0% (Aug), 3.6% (Jul), 7.9% (Jun), 6.1% (May), 9.4% (Apr)

October
1st, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
43.4% 47.0% N/A

For September
Provided by: Reserve Bank of Australia

Commodity Index m/m: 0.5%, pr. 2.0% (rev from 1.0% - Aug), 3.6% (Jul),
7.9% (Jun), 6.1% (May), 9.4% (Apr)

September
1st, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
45.2% 41.9% 41.1%

For August
Provided by: Reserve Bank of Australia

Commodity Index m/m: 1.0%, pr. 3.6% (Jul), pr. 7.9% (Jun), pr. 6.1% (May),
9.4% (Apr)

On the year the commodity price index rose to show a 45.2% increase. Metals like iron ore, and fuels like coal and crude oil have seen prices sky rocket in the last year, but that run-up took a major step back in August as commodity prices eased. Strong exports helped to shrink Australia's 2nd quarter current account and boost company's operating profits.

Still, the Aussie was pressured as the RBA Governor Glenn Stevens is primed to reduce rates by a quarter point tomorrow in order to help the rest of the economy, which unlike the export industry, is suffering from high interest rates and high inflation, and a crimp in the housing market. The Aussie has been fallin since the last RBA meeting, when they signalled an interest rate cut was on the way and that continued in today's session.

From the Release: "Preliminary estimates for August indicate that the Index rose by 1.0 per cent (on a monthly average basis) in SDR terms, following an increase of 3.6 per cent (revised) in July.

The largest contributors to the rise in August were increases in the prices of coking coal and thermal coal (reflecting the inclusion of preliminary estimates), and wheat. The prices of gold, aluminium, copper and wool fell. In Australian dollar terms, the Index rose by 7.0 per cent in August following an increase of 3.3 per cent (revised) in July."

August
1st, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
41.1% 36.5% N/A

For July
Provided by: Reserve Bank of Australia

Commodity Index m/m: 3.6%, pr. 7.9% (Jun), pr. 6.1% (May), 9.4% (Apr)

July
1st, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
38.2% 28.6% N/A

For June
Provided by: Reserve Bank of Australia

Commodity Index m/m: 7.9%, pr. 6.1% (May), 9.4% (Apr)

From the Release: "Preliminary estimates for June indicate that the Index rose by 7.9 per cent (on a monthly average basis) in SDR terms, following an increase of 7.0 per cent (revised) in May. The largest contributors to the rise in June were increases in the prices of coking coal, iron ore, thermal coal and wheat (see below). The prices of nickel, lead and zinc fell. In Australian dollar terms, the Index rose by 7.2 per cent in June following an increase of 4.0 per cent (revised) in May.

As indicated in previous months’ releases, the export price data available do not yet fully reflect the strong increases in prices that have occurred for coking coal, iron ore and thermal coal. As a result, preliminary estimates have been incorporated into the Index for April, May and June for these commodities. In previous years, contract price changes have passed through to export prices over several months, and this is also expected to occur this year. The preliminary estimates included for April, May and June incorporate around three-quarters of the anticipated total increase in prices for these commodities. The preliminary estimates will be subject to review as more data become available."