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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 73.3 | 71.1 | 69.3 | N/A | ||
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For June
Provided by: European Commission Official Release: PDF
Services: -20, pr. -23 (May), -24 (Apr), -25 (Mar), -23 (Feb), -22 (Jan),
Industrial: -32, pr. -34 (May), -35 (Apr), -38 (Mar), -36 (Feb),
Consumer: -25, pr. -31 (May), -31 (Apr), -34 (Mar), -33 (Feb),
From the Release: "In June, the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) for the EU and the euro area continued to improve for the third month in a row. However, in both areas, the level is still below the lows reached in the previous trough at the end of 1992. The ESI increased by 3.2 points in the EU and by 3.1 points in the euro area, to 71.1 and 73.3 respectively. The increase in the ESI resulted from an improvement in sentiment in services and among consumers, which rose in both regions by 3 points, and industry, which rose by somewhat less (1 point in both the EU and euro area). Sentiment in construction remained broadly unchanged in both areas, and retail trade also remained stable in the EU, though it declined in the euro area by 2 points." |
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| 9/29 | 10/30 | 11/27 | 1/8 | 1/29 | 2/26 | 3/30 | 4/29 | 5/28 | 6/29 | ||
| Actual | 87.7 | 80.4 | 74.9 | 67.1 | 68.9 | 65.4 | 64.6 | 67.2 | 69.3 | 73.3 | |
| Forecast | 87.3 | 86.0 | 78.0 | 71.8 | 65.4 | 68.5 | 65.4 | 65.6 | 69.0 | 71.1 | |
| Previous | 88.5 | 87.5 | 80.4 | 74.9 | 70.4 | 67.2 | 65.3 | 64.6 | 67.2 | 69.3 | |
| Revised From | N/A | 87.7 | N/A | N/A | 67.1 | 70.4 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 69.3 | 69.0 | 67.2 | N/A | ||
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For May
Provided by: European Commission Official Release: PDF
Services: -23, pr. -24 (Apr), -25 (Mar), -23 (Feb), -22 (Jan), -17 (Dec),
Industrial: -34, pr. -35 (Apr), -38 (Mar), -36 (Feb), -34 (Jan), -32 (Dec),
Consumer: -31, pr. -31 (Apr), -34 (Mar), -33 (Feb), -31 (Jan), -30 (Dec),
The index of executive and consumer sentiment rose to its highest level in 6 months, as record-low interest rates and government stimulus programs have begun to provide a bottom and a slowing to the current recession. The economic sentiment indicator climbed to 69.3 for May. Though consumer confidence remained at the same level as it was in April, the services, industrial and retail sectors all registered improvements.
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 67.2 | 65.6 | 64.6 | N/A | ||
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For April
Provided by: European Commission Official Release: PDF
Services: -24, forecast -24, pr. -25 (Mar), -23 (Feb), -22 (Jan), -17 (Dec),
Industrial: -35, forecast -36, pr. -38 (Mar), -36 (Feb), -34 (Jan), -32 (Dec),
Consumer: -31, forecast -33, pr. -34 (Mar), -33 (Feb), -31 (Jan), -30 (Dec),
From the Release: "In April, the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) for the EU and the euro area picked up for the first time since May 2007 (excluding a small blip in March 2008 for the EU). It increased by 3.5 points in the EU, and by 2.5 points in the euro area, to 63.9 and 67.2 respectively. The rebound in the ESI resulted from a clear improvement in sentiment in industry and among consumers, which in both regions rose by the same amount (3 points), and a smaller increase in services (+1 point in both regions). Retail trade sentiment grew by 2 points in the EU, but fell by 2 points in the euro area. Construction, in contrast, declined in both areas – by 1 point in the EU and by 2 points in the euro area." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 64.6 | 65.4 | 65.3 | N/A | ||
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For March
Provided by: European Commission Official Release: PDF
Services: -25, forecast -24, pr. -23 (Feb), -22 (Jan), -17 (Dec), -12 (Nov),
Industrial: -38, forecast -36, pr. -36 (Feb), -34 (Jan), -32 (Dec), -25 (Nov),
Consumer: -34, forecast -34, pr. -33 (Feb), -31 (Jan), -30 (Dec), -25 (Nov),
From the Release: "In March, the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) for the EU and the euro area declined again, but more slowly than in the first two months of the year amid signs of stabilisation in some sectors. It fell by 0.6 points in the EU, and by 0.7 points in the euro area, to 60.3 and 64.6 respectively. The indicators for both regions now stand at their lowest levels since the current series was launched in January 1985." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 65.4 | 68.5 | 67.2 | 70.4 | ||
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For February
Provided by: European Commission Official Release: PDF
Services: -23, forecast -22, pr. -22 (Jan), -17 (Dec), -12 (Nov), -6 (Oct),
Industrial: -36, forecast -34, pr. -34 (Jan), -32 (Dec), -25 (Nov), -18 (Oct),
Consumer: -33, forecast -31, pr. -31 (Jan), -30 (Dec), -25 (Nov), -24 (Oct),
From the Release: "In February, the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) for the EU and the euro continued to decline. It fell by 2.2 points in the EU, a much smaller fall than that recorded in January, and by 1.8 points in the euro area, which in contrast was similar to the decline observed in January. The ESIs now stand at 61.0 and 65.4 respectively – the lowest levels since the current series of the indicator was launched in January 1985. The fall in the ESI for both the EU and the euro area can be attributed to a general decline in confidence in all sectors, except for the retail trade which slightly improved – by 1 point – in both areas. Industry (-4 points in the EU and -3 in the euro area) was the sector which saw the biggest decline. The construction confidence indicator dropped by 2 points in both the EU and the euro area. Both service and consumer sentiment dropped by 1 point in the EU and by 1 and 2 points respectively in the euro area. Employment expectations fell sharply in both industry and services. Consistent with that, consumers’ unemployment expectations increased significantly. After a decreasing trend observed since summer 2008, managers’ selling-price expectations as well as consumers’ price expectations stabilised at very low levels." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 68.9 | 65.4 | 70.4 | 67.1 | ||
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For January
Provided by: European Commission Official Release: PDF
Services: -22, forecast -18, pr. -17 (Dec), -12 (Nov), -6 (Oct), 0 (Sep),
Industrial: -34, forecast -34, pr. -32 (Dec), -25 (Nov), -18 (Oct), -12 (Sep),
Consumer: -31, forecast -31, pr. -30 (Dec), -25 (Nov), -24 (Oct), -19 (Sep),
From the Release: "In January, the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) for the EU and the euro area declined again, but less sharplythan in the last three months of 2008. It fell by 3.3 points in the EU and by 1.5 points in the euro area, to 64.9and 68.9, respectively. The indicators for both regions stand at their lowest levels since the current series was launched in January 1985. The fall in the ESI for both the EU and the euro area is attributed to a general decline in confidence in all sectors, except for the retail trade sector which remained unchanged. Services (-4.9 points in the EU and -4.8 in the euro area) and construction (-4.0 and -3.3, respectively) declined the most among all the five sectors. The industrialconfidence indicator dropped by 1.8 points in the EU and by 0.4 in the euro area, while consumersentiment dropped by 2.3 points in the EU and by 0.8 in the euro area." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 67.1 | 71.8 | 74.9 | N/A | ||
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For December
Provided by: European Commission Official Release: PDF
Services: -17, forecast -13, pr. -12 (Nov), -6 (Oct), 0 (Sep), 1 (Aug), 1 (Jul),
Economic conditions continued to deteriorate in the Euro-zone, as sentiment among consumers and business continued to fall. The overall index declined to a record low, as all three major groups saw significant falls. The European Commission began its survey in 1985. The data will weigh heavily on the minds of ECB policy makers and will add pressure for them to continue their campaign of interest rate cuts. With the reduction in demand from both home and abroad European companies are slashing their workforces, which filters down to more worried households which are squirreling their money away in case of a rainy day. That cycle intensified in December.
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 74.9 | 78.0 | 80.4 | N/A | ||
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For November
Services: -12, forecast -8, pr. -6 (Oct), 0 (Sep), 1 (Aug), 1 (Jul), 9 (Jun),
From the Release: "In November, the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) declined considerably in the EU and the euro area, continuing the sharp fall in sentiment already observed in the October survey. It fell by 6.7 points in the EU and by 5.1 points in the euro area, to 70.5 and 74.9, respectively. This puts the ESI for the EU at its lowest since January 1985, and that for the euro area at its lowest since August 1993. In both the EU and the euro area, the decline in the overall ESI reflects a general decrease in sentiment. The industrial confidence indicator fell significantly again in both regions. The services confidence indicator marks a new record-low level for both regions since the introduction of the survey twelve years ago. Consumer confidence declined only marginally, but remains at very low levels compared to its average value. Sentiment in the retail sector declined further in the EU, but remained the same in the euro area, while the construction confidence indicator dropped markedly – by 4 points in both regions. Reflecting the widespread deterioration in economic sentiment, all EU countries reported weakening sentiment. Among the large Member States, confidence in the UK fell the most (-8.8 points), followed by Poland (-7), Germany (-6.3) and the Netherlands (-5.4). The confidence indicator fell less significantly in France (-1.3), Italy (-1.2) and Spain (-2.8); however the latter now stands at its lowest ever." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 80.4 | 86.0 | 87.5 | 87.7 | ||
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For October
Services: -6, forecast -2, pr. 0 (Sep), 1 (Aug), 1 (Jul), 9 (Jun), 8 (May),
The European Commission's index of executive and consumer sentiment dropped 7.1 points to 80.4 for the October period. That was a record drop for the index and reflected weaker confidence at all levels: services, industrial and consumer. The overall index is now at a 15 year low. The Euro-zone economy was feeling the strain of higher credit costs and weaker global demand before the most recent bout of crisis in financial markets intensified in late September. With expectations of weaker consumer spending, companies will scale back on production and services. The ECB cut rates by 50 basis points, and with inflation gauges easing, it is expected to follow that up with more cuts before the end of the year.
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 87.7 | 87.3 | 88.5 | N/A | ||
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For September
Services: 0, forecast 2, pr. 1 (Aug), 1 (Jul), 9 (Jun), 8 (May), 7 (Apr)
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