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Indicator Digest

Economic Sentiment Indicator
Provided by the European Commission, the Economic Sentiment Indicator is a mix of 5 other confidence surveys: Industrial Confidence (40%), Service Confidence (30%), Consumer Confidence (20%), Construction Confidence (5%), and Retail Trade Confidence Indicator (5%).
  • EUR

Main Indicator: Economic Sentiment Indicator

Most Recent Release

January
7th, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
91.3 90.0 88.8 N/A

For October
Provided by: European Commission
Official Release: HTML PDF

Consumer: -16, pr. -17 (Nov), -18 (Oct), -19 (Sep), -22 (Aug),
-23 (Jul), -25 (Jun), -31 (May), -31 (Apr), -34 (Mar), -33 (Feb)
Services: -3, pr. -4 (Nov), -7 (Oct), -9 (Sep), -11 (Aug), -18 (Jul),
-20 (Jun), -23 (May), -24 (Apr), -25 (Mar), -23 (Feb), -22 (Jan)
Industrial: -16, pr. -19 (Nov), -21 (Oct), -24 (Sep), -25 (Aug),
-30 (Jul), -32 (Jun), -34 (May), -35 (Apr), -38 (Mar), -36 (Feb)

From the Release: "The Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) rose once again in December to 92.0 (+4.1 points) in the EU and to 91.3 (+2.5) in the euro area. It has improved in both areas for nine consecutive months since its trough in March 2009, though it still remains below its long-term average.

Sentiment in industry, which increased by 3 points in both the EU and the euro area, remained the main contributor to the overall improvement. While most respondents in this sector reported strong improvements in their order books, they appear to have scaled back their production expectations. The declining level of stocks, especially in the automotive sector, confirmed further destocking.

Services increased by 1 point in the euro area and by 6 points in the EU, the latter owing to a strong increase in UK services sentiment. Confidence among consumers improved by 1 point in both areas, as unemployment fears faded. Mirroring this outlook, employment expectations picked up in industry and services. No major development was noted in retail, which remained unchanged in the EU and increased by 1 point in the euro area. Construction declined by 1 point in the EU and by 2 points in the euro area." 

Table of Past Data

1/292/263/304/295/286/297/309/2910/291/7
Actual68.965.464.667.269.373.376.082.886.291.3
Forecast65.468.565.465.669.071.175.082.584.490.0
Previous70.467.265.364.667.269.373.280.882.888.8
Revised From67.170.4N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A

Past Releases

October
29th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
86.2 84.4 82.8 N/A

For October
Provided by: European Commission
Official Release: PDF

Services: -7, pr. -9 (Sep), -11 (Aug), -18 (Jul), -20 (Jun), -23 (May),
-24 (Apr), -25 (Mar), -23 (Feb), -22 (Jan), -17 (Dec), -12 (Nov)
Industrial: -21, pr. -24 (Sep), -25 (Aug), -30 (Jul), -32 (Jun),
-34 (May), -35 (Apr), -38 (Mar), -36 (Feb), -34 (Jan), -32 (Dec)
Consumer: -18, pr. -19 (Sep), -22 (Aug), -23 (Jul), -25 (Jun),
-31 (May), -31 (Apr), -34 (Mar), -33 (Feb), -31 (Jan), -30 (Dec)

September
29th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
82.8 82.5 80.8 N/A

For September
Provided by: European Commission
Official Release: PDF

Services: -9, pr. -11 (Aug), -18 (Jul), -20 (Jun), -23 (May), -24 (Apr),
-25 (Mar), -23 (Feb), -22 (Jan), -17 (Dec), -12 (Nov), -6 (Oct), 0 (Sep)

Industrial: -24, pr. -25 (Aug), -30 (Jul), -32 (Jun), -34 (May), -35 (Apr),
-38 (Mar), -36 (Feb), -34 (Jan), -32 (Dec), -25 (Nov), -18 (Oct),
-12 (Sep), -9 (Aug), -8 (Jul)

Consumer: -19, pr. -22 (Aug), -23 (Jul), -25 (Jun), -31 (May),
-31 (Apr), -34 (Mar), -33 (Feb), -31 (Jan), -30 (Dec), -25 (Nov),
-24 (Oct), -19 (Sep), -19 (Aug)

The EU saw its economic sentiment indicator rise to an one-year high of 82.8 in September. The index saw improvement to the negative figures in each of the three categories followed: services, industry, and consumer.

July
30th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
76.0 75.0 73.2 N/A
For July
Provided by: European Commission
Official Release: PDF

Services: -18, pr. -20 (Jun), -23 (May), -24 (Apr), -25 (Mar), -23 (Feb),
-22 (Jan), -17 (Dec), -12 (Nov), -6 (Oct), 0 (Sep), 1 (Aug), 1 (Jul)

Industrial: -30, pr. -32 (Jun), -34 (May), -35 (Apr), -38 (Mar),
-36 (Feb), -34 (Jan), -32 (Dec), -25 (Nov), -18 (Oct), -12 (Sep),
-9 (Aug), -8 (Jul)

Consumer: -23, pr. -25 (Jun), -31 (May), -31 (Apr), -34 (Mar),
-33 (Feb), -31 (Jan), -30 (Dec), -25 (Nov), -24 (Oct), -19 (Sep),
-19 (Aug)

From the Release: "In July, the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) for the EU and the euro area improved noticeably, marking the fourth consecutive increase in both series since the trough in March. However, in both areas, the level is still very low, and is close to the reading registered in November 2008. The ESI increased by 3.9 points in the EU, and by 2.8 points in the euro area, to 75 and 76, respectively."

June
29th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
73.3 71.1 69.3 N/A
For June
Provided by: European Commission
Official Release: PDF

Services: -20, pr. -23 (May), -24 (Apr), -25 (Mar), -23 (Feb), -22 (Jan),
-17 (Dec), -12 (Nov), -6 (Oct), 0 (Sep), 1 (Aug), 1 (Jul), 9 (Jun),

Industrial: -32, pr. -34 (May), -35 (Apr), -38 (Mar), -36 (Feb),
-34 (Jan), -32 (Dec), -25 (Nov), -18 (Oct), -12 (Sep), -9 (Aug), -8 (Jul)

Consumer: -25, pr. -31 (May), -31 (Apr), -34 (Mar), -33 (Feb),
-31 (Jan), -30 (Dec), -25 (Nov), -24 (Oct), -19 (Sep), -19 (Aug)

From the Release: "In June, the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) for the EU and the euro area continued to improve for the third month in a row. However, in both areas, the level is still below the lows reached in the previous trough at the end of 1992. The ESI increased by 3.2 points in the EU and by 3.1 points in the euro area, to 71.1 and 73.3 respectively.

The increase in the ESI resulted from an improvement in sentiment in services and among consumers, which rose in both regions by 3 points, and industry, which rose by somewhat less (1 point in both the EU and euro area). Sentiment in construction remained broadly unchanged in both areas, and retail trade also remained stable in the EU, though it declined in the euro area by 2 points."

May
28th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
69.3 69.0 67.2 N/A
For May
Provided by: European Commission
Official Release: PDF

Services: -23, pr. -24 (Apr), -25 (Mar), -23 (Feb), -22 (Jan), -17 (Dec),
-12 (Nov), -6 (Oct), 0 (Sep), 1 (Aug), 1 (Jul), 9 (Jun), 8 (May),

Industrial: -34, pr. -35 (Apr), -38 (Mar), -36 (Feb), -34 (Jan), -32 (Dec),
-25 (Nov), -18 (Oct), -12 (Sep), -9 (Aug), -8 (Jul), -5 (Jun), -2 (May)

Consumer: -31, pr. -31 (Apr), -34 (Mar), -33 (Feb), -31 (Jan), -30 (Dec),
-25 (Nov), -24 (Oct), -19 (Sep), -19 (Aug), -20 (Jul), -17 (Jun), -15 (May)

The index of executive and consumer sentiment rose to its highest level in 6 months, as record-low interest rates and government stimulus programs have begun to provide a bottom and a slowing to the current recession. The economic sentiment indicator climbed to 69.3 for May. Though consumer confidence remained at the same level as it was in April, the services, industrial and retail sectors all registered improvements. 

From the Release: "In May, the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) for the EU and the euro area picked up for the second month in a row, albeit from a very low level and at a slower pace than in April, when a clear rebound was observed. The ESI increased by 2.8 points in the EU, and by 2.1 points in the euro area, to 66.7 and 69.3 respectively.

This further increase in the ESI resulted from a clear improvement in sentiment in the retail sector which rose markedly in both regions (by 4 points in the EU and by 5 points in the euro area), followed by services (up 4 points in the EU and 1 point in the euro area). Industry registered a smaller increase (+2 and +1, respectively). Sentiment in both construction and among consumers, in contrast, declined in the EU (by 1 and 2 points respectively) and remained stable in the euro area."

April
29th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
67.2 65.6 64.6 N/A
For April
Provided by: European Commission
Official Release: PDF

Services: -24, forecast -24, pr. -25 (Mar), -23 (Feb), -22 (Jan), -17 (Dec),
-12 (Nov), -6 (Oct), 0 (Sep), 1 (Aug), 1 (Jul), 9 (Jun), 8 (May),

Industrial: -35, forecast -36, pr. -38 (Mar), -36 (Feb), -34 (Jan), -32 (Dec),
-25 (Nov), -18 (Oct), -12 (Sep), -9 (Aug), -8 (Jul), -5 (Jun), -2 (May)

Consumer: -31, forecast -33, pr. -34 (Mar), -33 (Feb), -31 (Jan), -30 (Dec),
-25 (Nov), -24 (Oct), -19 (Sep), -19 (Aug), -20 (Jul), -17 (Jun), -15 (May)

From the Release: "In April, the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) for the EU and the euro area picked up for the first time since May 2007 (excluding a small blip in March 2008 for the EU). It increased by 3.5 points in the EU, and by 2.5 points in the euro area, to 63.9 and 67.2 respectively. The rebound in the ESI resulted from a clear improvement in sentiment in industry and among consumers, which in both regions rose by the same amount (3 points), and a smaller increase in services (+1 point in both regions). Retail trade sentiment grew by 2 points in the EU, but fell by 2 points in the euro area. Construction, in contrast, declined in both areas – by 1 point in the EU and by 2 points in the euro area."

March
30th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
64.6 65.4 65.3 N/A
For March
Provided by: European Commission
Official Release: PDF

Services: -25, forecast -24, pr. -23 (Feb), -22 (Jan), -17 (Dec), -12 (Nov),
-6 (Oct), 0 (Sep), 1 (Aug), 1 (Jul), 9 (Jun), 8 (May),

Industrial: -38, forecast -36, pr. -36 (Feb), -34 (Jan), -32 (Dec), -25 (Nov),
-18 (Oct), -12 (Sep), -9 (Aug), -8 (Jul), -5 (Jun), -2 (May)

Consumer: -34, forecast -34, pr. -33 (Feb), -31 (Jan), -30 (Dec), -25 (Nov),
-24 (Oct), -19 (Sep), -19 (Aug), -20 (Jul), -17 (Jun), -15 (May)

From the Release: "In March, the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) for the EU and the euro area declined again, but more slowly than in the first two months of the year amid signs of stabilisation in some sectors. It fell by 0.6 points in the EU, and by 0.7 points in the euro area, to 60.3 and 64.6 respectively. The indicators for both regions now stand at their lowest levels since the current series was launched in January 1985."

February
26th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
65.4 68.5 67.2 70.4
For February
Provided by: European Commission
Official Release: PDF

Services: -23, forecast -22, pr. -22 (Jan), -17 (Dec), -12 (Nov), -6 (Oct),
0 (Sep), 1 (Aug), 1 (Jul), 9 (Jun), 8 (May),

Industrial: -36, forecast -34, pr. -34 (Jan), -32 (Dec), -25 (Nov), -18 (Oct),
-12 (Sep), -9 (Aug), -8 (Jul), -5 (Jun), -2 (May)

Consumer: -33, forecast -31, pr. -31 (Jan), -30 (Dec), -25 (Nov), -24 (Oct),
-19 (Sep), -19 (Aug), -20 (Jul), -17 (Jun), -15 (May)

From the Release: "In February, the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) for the EU and the euro continued to decline. It fell by 2.2 points in the EU, a much smaller fall than that recorded in January, and by 1.8 points in the euro area, which in contrast was similar to the decline observed in January. The ESIs now stand at 61.0 and 65.4 respectively – the lowest levels since the current series of the indicator was launched in January 1985.

The fall in the ESI for both the EU and the euro area can be attributed to a general decline in confidence in all sectors, except for the retail trade which slightly improved – by 1 point – in both areas. Industry (-4 points in the EU and -3 in the euro area) was the sector which saw the biggest decline. The construction confidence indicator dropped by 2 points in both the EU and the euro area. Both service and consumer sentiment dropped by 1 point in the EU and by 1 and 2 points respectively in the euro area.

Employment expectations fell sharply in both industry and services. Consistent with that, consumers’ unemployment expectations increased significantly. After a decreasing trend observed since summer 2008, managers’ selling-price expectations as well as consumers’ price expectations stabilised at very low levels."

January
29th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
68.9 65.4 70.4 67.1
For January
Provided by: European Commission
Official Release: PDF

Services: -22, forecast -18, pr. -17 (Dec), -12 (Nov), -6 (Oct), 0 (Sep),
1 (Aug), 1 (Jul), 9 (Jun), 8 (May),

Industrial: -34, forecast -34, pr. -32 (Dec), -25 (Nov), -18 (Oct), -12 (Sep),
-9 (Aug), -8 (Jul), -5 (Jun), -2 (May)

Consumer: -31, forecast -31, pr. -30 (Dec), -25 (Nov), -24 (Oct), -19 (Sep),
-19 (Aug), -20 (Jul), -17 (Jun), -15 (May)

From the Release: "In January, the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) for the EU and the euro area declined again, but less sharplythan in the last three months of 2008. It fell by 3.3 points in the EU and by 1.5 points in the euro area, to 64.9and 68.9, respectively. The indicators for both regions stand at their lowest levels since the current series was launched in January 1985.

The fall in the ESI for both the EU and the euro area is attributed to a general decline in confidence in all sectors, except for the retail trade sector which remained unchanged. Services (-4.9 points in the EU and -4.8 in the euro area) and construction (-4.0 and -3.3, respectively) declined the most among all the five sectors. The industrialconfidence indicator dropped by 1.8 points in the EU and by 0.4 in the euro area, while consumersentiment dropped by 2.3 points in the EU and by 0.8 in the euro area."