Indicator Digest - CMS Forex

Economic Sentiment Indicator

Provided by the European Commission, the Economic Sentiment Indicator is a mix of 5 other confidence surveys: Industrial Confidence (40%), Service Confidence (30%), Consumer Confidence (20%), Construction Confidence (5%), and Retail Trade Confidence Indicator (5%).

Main Indicator: Economic Sentiment Indicator

Most Recent Release

April
30th, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

97.1

98.9

99.6

N/A

For April
Provided by: European Commission
Official Release: PDF

Confidence among European executives and consumers fell to 97.1, the 11th straight month that the indicator has declined. 4 out of the 5 confidence sub-gauges (industrial, services, construction, and retail trade) showed declines with consumer confidence staying steady. Consumers and firms are facing higher credit costs along with increased prices for energy and food. Industrial production deteriorated further as the Euro-zone seems to be succumbing to the pressures the rest of the "developed" economies are facing.

Table of Past Data

	8/31	9/28	10/31	11/30	1/7	1/31	2/29	3/31	4/30

Actual	110	107.1	106	104.8	104.7	101.7	100.1	99.6	97.1
Forecast	110.2	109		105.0	104.3		101.2	100.0	98.9
Previous	111	109.9	107.1	106	104.8	104.7	101.7	100.2	99.6
Revised From	N/A	110	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Past Releases

March
31st, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

99.6

100.0

100.2

N/A

For March
Provided by: European Commission
Official Release: PDF

From the Release:

"In March, the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) rose by 1.7 points in the EU and decreased by 0.6 points in the euro area, to 102.0 and 99.6 respectively. Following a continuous decline since mid-2007, the indicator rebounded somewhat in the EU on the back of a sharp improvement in services confidence in the UK. Meanwhile, it weakened further in the euro area and now stands just below its long-term average.

The increase in the sentiment indicator for the EU is due to significantly higher confidence in the services sector, while confidence in manufacturing, construction and retail trade remained broadly stable. In the euro area, sectoral developments were somewhat different, with confidence decreasing slightly in services and construction. Consumer confidence stayed unchanged in both areas."

February
29th, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

100.1

101.2

101.7

N/A

For February
Provided by: European Commission
Official Release: PDF

"The indicator fell by 1.6 points in the euro area, to 100.1. Having been on a downward path since mid-2007, it now stands at its long-term average in both areas. The decrease in the sentiment indicator is mainly due to a significant drop in confidence in the services sector and, to a lesser extent, lower confidence in the manufacturing and construction sectors. Confidence among consumers decreased slightly in the EU, while it remained stable in the euro area. In both areas, confidence improved in the retail trade sector. The ESI decreased in all large EU Member States but Germany. More specifically, confidence deteriorated in the UK (-9.0), Italy (-3.6), Spain (-3.1), France (-1.8) and Poland (-0.7), while it improved in Germany (+0.6)."

The Economic Sentiment Indicator, along with its sister release the Business Climate Indicator, both underperformed expectations. Germany seems to be doing well, while the UK, Italy, Spain and France confidnece deteriorating. A recent run of German data points to its stability, while it may seem the other countries in the euro-zone may start to lag and bring the Euro down a bit. The euro-zone is dealing with record high oil prices, a record high Euro, and slowdowns in the US and UK.

January
31st, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

101.7

104.7

N/A

For January
Provided by: European Commission
Official Release: PDF

January
7th, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

104.7

104.3

104.8

N/A

For December.
Furnished by the European Commission
Official Release from EuroStat

The index of executive and consumer sentiment in the euro area slipped to 104.7, which is the lowest measure since March 2006. Expansion in Europe's services and manufacturing industries showed slowdown in last week's data, and price pressures threaten to prop up inflation.

November
30th, 2007

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

104.8

105.0

106

N/A

October
31st, 2007

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

106

107.1

N/A

For October
Provided by: European Commission
Official Release: PDF

September
28th, 2007

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

107.1

109

109.9

110

For September.

Confidence in the economic outlook for the Euro-zone fell to 107.1 in September, which is a 16-month low. The indicator measures sentiment among executives and consumers. Rising inflation (led by rising costs of oil), a stronger Euro, and 8 interest rate hikes in the last two years weighed on both consumers and executives. The ECB may not be done with its campaign to stamp out inflation, as today's estimate for September inflation rose above the Bank's 2% target.

August
31st, 2007

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

110

110.2

111

N/A

The ECI, an overall gauge of sentiment towards the economy in the Euro-zone produced by the European Commission, fell from last month. The index of sentiment among executives and consumers in the 12 nations sharing the euro fell as a result of the turmoil caused in financial markets over the collapse of the US subprime-mortgage market. The Business Climate Indicator (BCI), which measures businesses assessment of the current economic climate unexpectedly increased.