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Net Lending to Individuals

Main Indicator: Net Consumer Lending

Most Recent Release

September
1st, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
4.3B 3.8B 4.0B N/A

For July
Provided by: Bank of England
Official Release: PDF

Net Consumer Credit: £1.1B, forecast £0.8B, pr. £0.9B (Jun), £1.4B (May), £0.9B (Apr)
Net Mortgage Lending: £3.2, forecast £3.0B, pr. £3.1B(Jun), £4.1B (May), £6.4B (Apr) 

July saw an increase in consumer lending, with consumer credit rising to 1.1B and lending secured on dwellings rise to 3.2B. Both were above forecasts which called for a reduction from June's levels. However mortgage approvals receded again, hitting a fresh record low. 

From the Release: "The increase in total net lending to individuals in July (£4.3 billion) was above the increase in June, but below the previous six-month average (Table A). The twelve-month growth rate slowed further, to 6.9%, and the three-month annualised growth rate fell by 0.8 percentage points to 3.8%."

 

Table of Past Data

11/291/41/302/294/24/296/26/307/299/1
Actual8.8B8.9B9.1B8.4B9.8B8.2B7.3B5.4B4.0B4.3B
Forecast10.0B8.2B8.5B9.0B8.1B8.48.0B7.0B5.0B3.8B
Previous10.8B8.9B9.2B8.5B8.3B9.8B7.9B7.3B5.1B4.0B
Revised From11.2B8.7B8.9B9.2BN/AN/A8.1BN/A5.4BN/A

Past Releases

July
29th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
4.0B 5.0B 5.1B 5.4B

For May
Provided by: Bank of England
Current Release: PDF

Net Consumer Credit: £0.9B, forecast £1.0B, pr. £1.4B (May), £0.9B (Apr)
Net Mortgage Lending: £3.1B, forecast £3.7B, pr. £4.1B (May), £6.4B (Apr)

The Consumer lending figures from the Bank of England reflect the tighter credit conditions in the UK. Overall lending dipped from April's already revised down £5.1B, was much lower than expected, and is below the previous 6-month average £7.5B.

June
30th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
5.4B 7.0B 7.3B N/A
For May
Provided by: Bank of England

Net Consumer Credit: £1.4B, forecast £1.0B, pr. £0.9B (Apr), £1.2B (Mar)
Net Mortgage Lending: £4.1B, forecast £6.8B, pr. £6.4B (Apr), £6.7B (Mar)

Total net consumer lending grew £5.4B in May, compared with growth of 7.3B in April, the weakest expansion since March 2001. Net mortgage fell by £2.7B compared to April's figure to £4.1B, the weakest in 6 years, while credit card lending increased to £1.4B from £1B. That is the highest credit card lending since January 2006.

The release shows that mortgage lending is falling off a cliff, which will perpetuate the troubles in the UK housing market. The amount of mortgage approvals fell to a fresh record low of 42K. This was about a a quarter drop on April's figure which was already at a record low of 58K.

June
2nd, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
7.3B 8.0B 7.9B 8.1B

For April
Provided by: Bank of England

Net Mortgage Lending: 6.4B, forecast 6.8B, 6.7B
Net Consumer Credit: 0.9B, forecast 1.0B, pr. 1.2B

April
29th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
8.2B 8.4 9.8B N/A

For March
Provided by: Bank of England

Net Mortgage Lending: 6.9B, forecast 7.2B, 7.3B
Net Consumer Credit: 1.2B, forecast 1.1B, pr. 2.3B

Net consumer lending fell to 8.2B pounds from 9.8B pound in February. Net consumer credit also declined, falling to 1.2B pounds. Individuals are more reluctant to borrow when the economy is facing a slowdown. The mortgage approval and lending figures from the release carried more importance for the forex markets.  

April
2nd, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
9.8B 8.1B 8.3B N/A

For February
Provided by: Bank of England
Official Source: PDF

Consumer lending in the UK surged, beating expectations. Total net lending to individuals amounted to £9.8 billion. It's the fastest pace that consumers have borrowed in 5 months, though loans for house purchases remained flat and declined slightly the same report said. 

From the Release:

"The increase in total net lending to individuals in February (£9.8 billion) was above the increase in January and the previous six-month average (Table A). The twelve-month growth rate slowed to 8.9% but the three-month annualised growth rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 7.9%."

February
29th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
8.4B 9.0B 8.5B 9.2B

For January
Provivded by: Bank of England
Official Source: PDF

"The increase in total net lending to individuals in January (£8.4 billion) was below the increase in December and the previous six-month average (Table A). The twelve-month growth rate fell to 9.1% and the three-month annualised growth rate fell by 0.4 percentage points to 7.7%.Within the total, the increase in net lending secured on dwellings (£7.4 billion) was also below the increase in December and the previous six-month average (Table A).  The twelve-month growth rate fell to 9.7%.  The three-month annualised growth rate also fell, by 0.2 percentage points to 8.2%."

January
30th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
9.1B 8.5B 9.2B 8.9B

For December.
Provided by the Bank of England

January
4th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
8.9B 8.2B 8.9B 8.7B
For November
November
29th, 2007
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
8.8B 10.0B 10.8B 11.2B
For October

Total net lending to individuals dropped on a monthly basis, and the previous figures were revised down. The annual growth rate dropped from 10.0% in September to 9.7% in October.

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