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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.4% | -1.2% | 0.9% | N/A | ||
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For April
House Prices y/y: -15.0%, forecast -15.8%, pr. -15.7% (Mar), -17.6% (Feb),
Avg. Price: £151,861, pr. £150,946 (Mar), £147,746 (Feb), £150,501 (Jan),
From the RElease: "“The price of a typical house fell by 0.4% in April. This reverses some of the rise seen in March, but is in line with our expectations, given the current economic conditions. April’s decline leaves the average price of a typical house at £151,861, down 15% from 12 months ago. The 3-month on 3-month rate of change, generally a smoother indicator of the short-term trend in prices, improved to -3.1% in April from -4.1% in March. The chancellor announced several measures aimed at boosting the housing market in his Budget. The scheme for government guarantees for new, high-quality residential mortgage backed securities are welcome and may help to boost the amount of mortgage credit available. However, since the availability of credit is only part of the reason why the housing market is in the doldrums it is unlikely to lead to a swift turnaround in its fortunes. Lenders have already indicated that the availability of credit is less of an issue than it has been, but at the same time expect that the demand for secured lending will fall further. Given the weakness of the economy and the expected further increase in unemployment this comes as no surprise." |
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| 7/31 | 8/28 | 10/2 | 10/30 | 11/27 | 1/6 | 1/29 | 2/26 | 4/2 | 4/30 | ||
| Actual | -1.7% | -1.9% | -1.7% | -1.4% | -0.4% | -2.5% | -1.3% | -1.8% | 0.9% | -0.4% | |
| Forecast | -1.2% | -1.3% | -1.6% | -1.5% | -1.7% | -1.5% | -1.8% | -1.2% | -1.5% | -1.2% | |
| Previous | -0.8% | -1.5% | -1.9% | -1.7% | -1.4% | -0.4% | -2.5% | -1.3% | -1.8% | 0.9% | |
| Revised From | N/A | -1.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.9% | -1.5% | -1.8% | N/A | ||
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For March
House Prices y/y: -15.7%, forecast -18.1%, pr. -17.6% (Feb), -16.6% (Jan),
Avg. Price: £150,946 pr. £147,746 (Feb), £150,501 (Jan), £153,048 (Dec),
From the Release (Fionnuala Earley, Nationwide's Chief Economist): “Spring brought a surprise bounce to house prices in March. The price of a typical house increased for the first time since October 2007, rising by 0.9% during the month and reducing the annual rate of fall from -17.6% to -15.7%. This brings the price of a typical house to £150,946. The moderation in the annual rate of fall is somewhat distorted by conditions last year and so it would be unwise to draw strong conclusions from the significant slowdown in the annual rate of fall. Equally, while the rise in prices in March is welcome, it is far too soon to see this as evidence that the trough of the market has been reached. The Bank of England has already taken strong measures to ease the tensions in economic and financial markets by cutting rates and commencing quantitative easing. However it will take time for these to work" |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -1.8% | -1.2% | -1.3% | N/A | ||
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For February
House Prices y/y: -17.6%, forecast -17.1%, pr. -16.6% (Jan), -15.9 (Dec),
Avg. Price: £147,746, pr. £150,501 (Nov), £153,048 (Dec), £158,442 (Nov),
From the Release: " The price of a typical house fell by 1.8% in February, bringing the annual rate of change to -17.6% and the price of a typical house down to £147,746, from £179,358 this time last year. Sharp cuts in interest rates have helped affordability, but have not yet affected housing market confidence sufficiently to boost the levels of new transaction activity or slow the pace of house price falls. Early signs of increased interest in housing, as reported by the pick up in new buyer enquiries, have yet to filter into sales, but do suggest that falling prices and interest rates are raising curiosity now, which could flow through quickly once confidence returns." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -1.3% | -1.8% | -2.5% | N/A | ||
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For January
House Prices y/y: -16.6%, forecast -16.7%, pr. -15.9 (Dec), -13.9% (Nov),
Avg. Price: £150,501, pr. £153,048 (Dec), £158,442 (Nov), £158,872 (Oct),
From the Release: "The price of a typical house fell by a further 1.3% in January, as the deepening economic recession and financial market turbulence continued to weigh on housing market sentiment and activity. January’s decline leaves the average price of a typical house at £150,501, down 16.6% from 12 months ago. The 3-month on 3-month rate of change, a smoother indicator of the short-term trend in prices, improved for the fourth consecutive month from -4.2% in December to -4.0% in January. However, it is too early to say that this marks the start of a sustained improvement in the short term trend. Levels of activity in the housing market have remained very low in recent months. Mortgage approvals for house purchase fell to a record low of 27,000 in November, and partial figures for December suggest there has only been a small improvement since then. House purchase approvals have historically been a good lead indicator of house price movements, and we would not expect to see a stabilisation of property prices until approvals recover significantly from current levels." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -2.5% | -1.5% | -0.4% | N/A | ||
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For December
House Prices y/y: -15.9%, forecast -14.7%, pr. -13.9% (Nov), -14.6% (Oct),
UK housing prices fell at a record rate in December, at least for this series which goes back to 1991. Prices plunged 2.5%, a sharper decline that was anticipated and follows a more tepid decline in November. The Bank of England meets this week and will continue to cut interest rates in order to stimulate the struggling British economy. Rates are now at 2%, but the drop in borrowing costs hasn't filtered down into an improvement in the housing sector. Mortgage approvals fell to their weakest level since at least 1999 in November and with banks continuing to suffer, they are more reluctant to lend. The British government will try to expand its program where it takes some of banks illiquid assets and trades it for government debt thereby pumping money into banks and spurring lending.
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.4% | -1.7% | -1.4% | N/A | ||
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For November
House Prices y/y: -13.9%, forecast -15.1%, pr. -14.6% (Oct), -12.4% (Sep),
From the Release: Fionnuala Earley, Nationwide's Chief Economist, said: "The rate of house price falls moderated significantly in November. Prices fell by just 0.4% in the month compared with 1.3% in October. This brings the annual rate of house price falls to 13.9%, down from 14.6% last month. The price of a typical house is now £158,442. This is about £25,000 less than this time last year but is still about £25,000 higher than in November 2003. "In spite of the moderation in house price falls recorded in November, with the economy in recession, conditions do not appear very favourable for a swift recovery in the housing market. The labour market is weakening, which will inevitably hinder market demand, particularly when property remains expensive relative to earnings. With prices falling at their current rate there is also little incentive for new borrowers to hurry into the market. However, there are a number of measures which should provide some support to the market in general and help existing and potential homeowners in these difficult times. "The Monetary Policy Committee's decision to reduce interest rates by 1.5% at the November meeting took most commentators by surprise. It was a bold step and has left no doubt that the focus of their concerns has shifted from inflation to deflation. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -1.4% | -1.5% | -1.7% | N/A | ||
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For October
House Prices y/y: -14.6%, pr. -12.4% (Sep), -10.5% (Aug), -8.1% (Jul),
From the Release: ""House prices in the UK fell for the twelfth consecutive month in October. The price of a typical house is now 14.6% lower than at this time last year, the peak of the market. The typical house price fell by 1.4% in October, around the same rate as the average monthly fall of 1.3% over the last year, but lower than the monthly falls recorded in each of the previous three months. The price of a typical house is now £158,872, almost £30,000 less than a year ago, but to put in context, still almost £30,000 more than five years ago. The path of house prices is closely related to movements in the numbers of transactions. House purchase approvals dropped to new lows in the third quarter of the year, at around one third of the long run trend. The number of completed house purchase transactions as a proportion of the total stock of mortgages (the turnover rate1) is now at its lowest ever level since the series started in 1974." Asking prices have fallen this year but the rate of decline has been significantly behind that of other measures. Consumers still expect prices to continue to fall into 2009 and will therefore be reluctant to trade without some discount on the asking price. This type of stalemate ultimately limits the number of transactions which can take place. This could however indicate that conditions are not yet very stressed, as sellers have not felt the need to dramatically reduce their prices for a quick sale. As the economy weakens further there is likely to be more movement on asking prices as sellers adjust to the prevailing conditions and reassess their own needs. Some may choose not to sell after all, thus reducing supply, but others will adjust their prices accordingly. While there will always be a rump of sellers who will need to move in order to accommodate job or family changes there will be others who are affected by economic conditions more acutely. So we should expect a moderation of price expectations on the part of sellers in a weaker economic environment." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -1.7% | -1.6% | -1.9% | N/A | ||
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For September
House Prices y/y: -12.4%, forecast -12.6%, pr. -10.5% (Aug), -8.1% (Jul), -6.3% (Jun)
According to Nationwide, house prices have fallen for the past 11 months straight. The annual decline of 12.4% is the largest for the index since this series began in 1991. There is no bottom to be seen yet, but there is glimmer of hope in that price declines are decelerating in the past few months, after accelerating for the first half of the year. Arguably, there is at least the rest of this year to go before prices fall. Financial conditions are pushing up the fixed mortgage rates, consumers sentiments are depleting, and inflation still keeps households strapped. These will continue to pressure home prices. Fionnuala Earley, Nationwide's Chief Economists concluded: "House prices now are over 60% higher in real terms than they were at the start of the decade, even taking into account the falls since last October. Even if prices fall over the next couple of years, at the trough that would still leave prices more than a fifth higher in real terms than at the start of the decade. Although price falls are not painless, they do contribute to restoring housing affordability to more sustainable levels, which is positive for the market over the long term. Although the next year or two will be difficult, over time the global economy will recover from current difficulties, helping to end the cyclical downturn in property markets." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -1.9% | -1.3% | -1.5% | -1.7% | ||
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For August
House Prices y/y: -10.5%, forecast -9.6%, pr. -8.1% (Jul), -6.3% (Jun)
Housing prices in the UK took another tumble, dropping 1.9% in the month of August, and has now hit a double-digit annual decline of 10.5%. Conditions are very subdued as interest in purchasing homes is far off the levels seen last year around this time. The Pound set an intra-day low vs the Euro and Yen around the time of the release, and overnight traded pretty flat against the Dollar.
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -1.7% | -1.2% | -0.8% | N/A | ||
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For July
House Prices y/y: -8.1%, forecast -7.2%, pr. -6.3%, -4.4% (May), -1.0%
(Apr)
From the Release: "“The price of a typical house fell by 1.7% in July, bringing the annual fall to 8.1%. This brings the average price to £169,316, almost £15,000 less than this time last year and its lowest level since August 2006. House prices have now been falling for nine consecutive months, but on average are still almost £11,000 higher than three years ago. House purchase transactions fell to 36,000 in June, only a third of the level of this time last year. Difficulties with credit availability are likely to have had some effect, particularly at the higher end of the loan-to-value range (LTV). Indeed the proportion of loans completed at higher LTVs has come down disproportionately in the last year. This will reflect the fact that some lending is not taking place, but the distribution of the remaining loans may suggest some further displacement to the LTV bands below 90%, encouraged by better pricing at these levels. “The Bank of England Credit Condition Survey still signals tight credit conditions ahead. 22% more lenders expect that there will be less credit available to households over the next three months and this could limit a recovery in transactions. The cost and availability of funds is part of the issue, which James Crosby hopes to address, but general macroeconomic conditions and risk management are becoming more important." |
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