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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -1.0% | 0.4% | 1.4% | 1.2% | ||
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For February
House Prices y/y: 9.2%, forecast 11.0%, pr. 8.6% (Jan),
Avg. Price: £161,320, pr. £163,481 (Jan), £162,103 (Dec),
From the Release: "The price of a typical UK property fell by a seasonally adjusted 1.0% month-on-month (m/m) in February, ending a strong run of nine consecutive monthly increases. The relatively smoother three month on three month rate of inflation remained positive at +1.6%, though this is down from +2.0% in January and a peak of +3.7% in September 2009. The annual rate of price inflation still managed to increase from 8.6% to 9.2% year-on-year, as this month’s fall was smaller than the 1.5% m/m decline recorded in February 2009. The average price of a typical property sold in the UK during February was £161,320." |
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| 5/29 | 6/30 | 7/30 | 8/27 | 10/2 | 10/30 | 12/1 | 12/31 | 1/29 | 2/26 | ||
| Actual | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.2% | -1.0% | ||
| Forecast | -0.9% | -0.4% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| Previous | -0.4% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.4% | |
| Revised From | N/A | N/A | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.6% | N/A | 0.4% | N/A | 0.4% | 1.2% | |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | ||
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For January
House Prices y/y: 8.6%, forecast 7.3%, pr. 5.9% (Dec), 2.7% (Nov)
Avg. Price: pr. £163,481, £162,103 (Dec), £162,764 (Nov),
From the Release (Martin Gahbaur, Nationwide Chief Economist): "House prices strengthened their upward momentum at the start of 2010, increasing by a seasonally adjusted 1.2% month-on-month in January. The 3 month on 3 month rate of change – usually a smoother indicator of the near term trend – dipped slightly from 2.3% in December to 2.1% in January, but this primarily reflects the smaller price increases recorded in November and December. At £163,481, the average price of a typical UK property cost 8.6% more than a year earlier in January, up from 5.9% in December. Unless there is a fall in property values in February, annual house price inflation is likely to move into double-digit territory next month for the first time since May 2007." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.4% | 0.5% | N/A |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | ||
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For November
House Prices y/y: 2.7%, forecast 2.4%, pr. 2.0% (Oct), 0.0% (Sep),
Avg. Price: £162,764, pr. £162,038 (Oct), £161,816 (Sep),
From the Release: "The monthly rate of house price inflation was unchanged in November at a seasonally adjusted 0.5%, leaving the average price of a typical property 2.7% higher than a year earlier. At £162,764, the average house price is at a similar level to where it was in early 2006. The 3 month on 3 month rate of change – generally a smoother indicator of the near term trend – dropped to 2.8% from 3.5% in October and 3.8% in September. This suggests that house prices are now rising at a more moderate pace than in the spring and summer months, when they experienced a very strong bounce from the early 2009 lows." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.9% | N/A | ||
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For September
House Prices y/y: 2.0%, pr. 0.0% (Sep), -2.7% (Aug), -6.2% (Jul),
Avg. Price: £162,038 pr. £161,816 (Sep), £160,224 (Aug),
From the Release: "House prices rose for a sixth consecutive month in October, but the strong upward momentum in property values seen over the summer is showing some signs of moderating as we head into the autumn months. The price of a typical property was 0.4% higher on the month in October, compared to an increase of 0.9% in September and 1.4% in both July and August. The 3 month on 3 month rate of change – generally a smoother indicator of the near term trend – dropped back slightly from 3.8% to 3.4%. At £162,038, the average price of a typical UK property was 2.0% higher than a year earlier, representing the first time since March 2008 that the annual rate of change has been in positive territory. Over the first ten months of 2009, the seasonally adjusted index of house prices has risen by 4.6%, though relative to the October 2007 peak it is still down by 13.1%." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.6% | ||
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For September
House Prices y/y: 0.0%, pr. -2.7% (Aug), -6.2% (Jul), -9.3% (Jun),
Avg. Price: £161,816, pr. £160,224 (Aug), £158,871 (Jul),
From the Release: "The recent upward momentum in house prices has continued into September, with the price of a typical house increasing by 0.9% on a seasonally adjusted basis. The 3 month on 3 month rate of change - generally a smoother indicator of the near term trend - rose from 3.3% in August to 3.8% in September, the highest level since August 2004. At £161,816, the average price of a typical UK property was essentially unchanged from a year earlier, representing the first time since March 2008 that the year-onyear rate of change has not been negative. Over the first nine months of 2009, the seasonally adjusted index of house prices has risen by 4.1%, though relative to the October 2007 peak it is still down by 13.5%." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 1.6% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.3% | ||
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For August
House Prices y/y: -2.7%, pr. -6.2% (Jul), -9.3% (Jun), -11.3% (May),
Avg. Price: £160,224 pr. £158,871 (July), £156,442 (Jun),
From the Release: "The price of a typical house rose for the fourth consecutive month in August, increasing by 1.6% on a seasonally adjusted basis. The 3 month on 3 month rate of change - generally a smoother indicator of the near term trend - rose from 2.7% in July to 3.3% in August, the highest level since February 2007. At £160,224, the average price of a typical UK property is still slightly lower than 12 months ago. However, the annual rate of change rose further in August, from -6.2% to -2.7%. Over the first eight months of 2009, the seasonally adjusted index of house prices has risen by 3.2%, though relative to the October 2007 peak it is down by 14.4%." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 1.3% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 0.9% | ||
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For July
House Prices y/y: -6.2%, pr. -9.3% (Jun), -11.3% (May),
Avg. Price: £158,871 pr. £156,442, £154,016 (May), £151,861 (Apr),
From the Release: "“The price of a typical house rose for the third consecutive month in July, increasing by 1.3% on a seasonally adjusted basis. The 3 month on 3 month rate of change – generally a smoother indicator of the near term trend – rose from 1.0% in June to 2.6% in July, the highest level since February 2007. House prices are still 6.2% lower than 12 months ago, but this represents another sharp improvement from the 9.3% year-on-year decline in June. Even if prices were to remain unchanged for the rest of 2009, the year-on-year rate would continue to improve since prices were falling very sharply in the second half of last year. For the first seven months of 2009 as a whole, prices have risen by a cumulative 1.3%, suggesting there is now a reasonable chance that prices could end the year slightly higher than where they started. Only a few months ago, such an outcome would have appeared unthinkable." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.9% | -0.4% | 1.2% | N/A | ||
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For June
House Prices y/y: -9.3%, forecast -10.8%, pr. -11.3% (May),
Avg. Price: £156,442, pr. £154,016 (May), £151,861 (Apr),
From the Release: "Commenting on the figures Martin Gahbauer, Nationwide's Chief Economist, said: “The price of a typical house rose by a seasonally adjusted 0.9% in June, building upon the improving trend seen over the last several months. At £156,442, the average house price across the UK was still 9.3% lower than a year ago, but this marks the first time since July 2008 that the year-on-year fall has been in single digits. The three month on three month rate of change – a smoother indicator of the short-term price trend – turned positive for the first time since December 2007 to stand at 0.9%, up from -0.4% in May. If the pattern of price movements seen in the first half of the year is repeated over the second half, then prices could show only a small single digit fall for 2009 as a whole. This would represent a stark shift from trends seen at the turn of the year, when most indicators were pointing to a repeat of the large declines seen in 2008." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 1.2% | -0.9% | -0.4% | N/A | ||
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For May
House Prices y/y: -11.3%, pr. -15.0% (Apr), -15.7% (Mar), -17.6% (Feb),
Avg. Price: £154,016, pr. £151,861 (Apr), £150,946 (Mar), £147,746 (Feb),
From the Release: "The price of a typical house rose by 1.2% in May, providing further evidence of some improvement in housing market conditions over the last few months. At £154,016, the average house price is still 11.3% lower than a year ago, although this marks a significant improvement from the annual decline of 15.0% recorded in April. The 3 month on 3 month rate of change – a smoother indicator of short-term price trends – rose from -3.0% in April to -0.5% in May and now stands at its highest level since January 2008. Although the short-term trend in house prices has clearly improved from where it was at the beginning of the year, it is still too early to say that the market is turning definitively. During the downturn of the early 1990s, there were many months during which prices rose, only to fall back down again in subsequent periods. In the current downturn, the combination of rapidly rising unemployment and tight access to credit implies that the last of the price declines has probably not been seen yet. Nonetheless, the improvement in house price trends is consistent with signs of stabilisation in several other economic indicators and suggests that any further price declines may occur at a less rapid pace than in 2008." |
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