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- UK
Main Indicator: Nationwide House Prices m/m
Most Recent Release
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -1.9% | -1.3% | -1.5% | -1.7% | ||
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For August
House Prices y/y: -10.5%, forecast -9.6%, pr. -8.1% (Jul), -6.3% (Jun)
Housing prices in the UK took another tumble, dropping 1.9% in the month of August, and has now hit a double-digit annual decline of 10.5%. Conditions are very subdued as interest in purchasing homes is far off the levels seen last year around this time. The Pound set an intra-day low vs the Euro and Yen around the time of the release, and overnight traded pretty flat against the Dollar.
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Table of Past Data
| 10/31 | 11/29 | 12/28 | 2/29 | 3/28 | 4/30 | 5/29 | 7/1 | 7/31 | 8/28 | ||
| Actual | 1.1% | -0.8% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.6% | -1.1% | -2.5% | -0.9% | -1.7% | -1.9% | |
| Forecast | 0.2% | 0.1% | -0.4% | 0.0% | -0.3% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -1.1% | -1.2% | -1.3% | |
| Previous | 0.7% | 1.1% | -0.8% | -0.3% | -0.5% | -0.7% | -0.9% | -2.5% | -0.8% | -1.5% | |
| Revised From | N/A | N/A | N/A | -0.1% | N/A | -0.6% | -1.1% | N/A | N/A | -1.7% | |
Past Releases
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -1.7% | -1.2% | -0.8% | N/A | ||
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For July
House Prices y/y: -8.1%, forecast -7.2%, pr. -6.3%, -4.4% (May), -1.0%
(Apr)
From the Release: "“The price of a typical house fell by 1.7% in July, bringing the annual fall to 8.1%. This brings the average price to £169,316, almost £15,000 less than this time last year and its lowest level since August 2006. House prices have now been falling for nine consecutive months, but on average are still almost £11,000 higher than three years ago. House purchase transactions fell to 36,000 in June, only a third of the level of this time last year. Difficulties with credit availability are likely to have had some effect, particularly at the higher end of the loan-to-value range (LTV). Indeed the proportion of loans completed at higher LTVs has come down disproportionately in the last year. This will reflect the fact that some lending is not taking place, but the distribution of the remaining loans may suggest some further displacement to the LTV bands below 90%, encouraged by better pricing at these levels. “The Bank of England Credit Condition Survey still signals tight credit conditions ahead. 22% more lenders expect that there will be less credit available to households over the next three months and this could limit a recovery in transactions. The cost and availability of funds is part of the issue, which James Crosby hopes to address, but general macroeconomic conditions and risk management are becoming more important." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.9% | -1.1% | -2.5% | N/A | ||
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For June
House Prices y/y: -6.3%, forecast -6.4%, pr. -4.4% (May), -1.0%
(Apr)
The price of an average home declined 6.3% in June from a year ago. That's the biggest fall since 1992 and added to weak manufacturing data shows that the UK economy is facing a serious slowdown. Banks have really tightened up their lending standards. Yesterday, data showed moregage approvals at a new low, and mortgage lending shrinking by more than £2 billion. Buyers also face the prospect of higher rates for their mortgages and with the overall economy weakening, the potential pool of buyers is smaller. Sellers are competing for their demand by lowering prices. The release talks about the problem the central faces in that it may have to add more pressure on the weak housing market by raising interest rates to contain inflation. However, a quick move to raise rates is not expected.
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -2.5% | -0.5% | -0.9% | -1.1% | ||
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For May
Nationwide House Prices y/y: -4.4%, forecast -2.1%, pr. -1.0%
The UK housing market continues its downturn. Fionnuala Earley, Nationwide's Cheif Economist is calling for MPC members to side with Blanchflower in voting for rate cuts soon. The 2.5% decline is the largest monthly drop on record. The annual rate of decline is also the highest since December of 1992. She also notes that at seven months, this is the longest consecutive monthly periods in which house prices fell, since 1992. The report still reminds readers that despite the slide, house prices remain 5% higher than 2 years ago, and 10% higher than 3 years ago. She pointed out that fortunately borrowers today are in a better condition to deal with this credit storm, compared to a similar downturn in the early 90's. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -1.1% | -0.5% | -0.7% | -0.6% | ||
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For April
Nationwide House Prices y/y: -1.0%, forecast -1.0%, pr. 1.1%
Housing Prices declined 1.1% from March to April, and fell 1% from a year earlier. It's the first annual decline in the Nationwide index since 1996. From the Release: "“The latest fall in house prices follows from the steep decline in house purchase transactions over the last half year. As a result of falling demand from first-time buyers, higher mortgage rates and tighter lending criteria, the number of mortgages approved for house purchases has fallen to record lows. The fall in transactions has pushed up the stock of unsold property on the market and improved the bargaining power of buyers, thus pushing down on prices. “Although retail spending has so far been remarkably resilient as the housing market has faltered, lower house prices are likely to weigh down on the consumer over time. In recent years, rising house prices appear to have boosted overall consumer sentiment and made housing equity available for consumer spending. With house prices no longer rising, consumers are likely to become more cautious in their spending habits, contributing to a weakening of the overall economy. As the economy slows, inflationary pressures should moderate over time and allow the Bank of England to make additional interest rate cuts. However, the risk that the current strength of oil and food prices could feed into wages means that the MPC will probably prefer to cut rates at a more gradual pace than homeowners might prefer." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.6% | -0.3% | -0.5% | N/A | ||
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For March
Nationwide House Prices n.s.a. y/y: 1.1%, forecast: 2.0%, pr. 2.7% (Feb), pr. 4.2% (Jan)
Pre-Release: Housing prices have shown three straight readings of monthly declines (-0.8 in Nov, -0.3% in Dec, -0.5% in Jan). March should make it 4 months in a row as the consensus shows prices falling -0.3%. The UK housing market continues to feel the pressure of housing prices sinking, though the central bank has tried to help by lowering rates recently.
"A clear change in sentiment since the late summer has led to the sharp slowing in house price growth, even in the less volatile 3-month on 3-month series." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.5% | 0.0% | -0.3% | -0.1% | ||
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For February
Nationwide House Prices n.s.a. y/y: 2.7%, forecast 3.6%, pr. 4.2%
The Bank of England has cut rates twice in 3 months, but with inflation posing a very real problem, the monetary policy comittee may be limited in how much looser it can make monetary policy. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.5% | -0.4% | -0.8% | N/A | ||
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For December. Nationwide HPI y/y: 4.8%, forecast 5.3%, pr. 6.9%. Release from Nationwide House Prices December Release .pdf House prices according to Nationwide fell 0.5% for a second straight month-on-month decline. Tightened funding conditions and financial market uncertainty has weakened affordability and demand. The past and prospects of further rate cuts are not expected to have any major impact on re-igniting the housing market. Nationwide Chief Economist Fionnuala Earley noted, "it seems unlikely that there will be a big recovery in activity and prices mirroring the 2005 experience. This is mainly because housing affordability is starting from a much worse position than in 2005, while interest rate cuts have started from a higher and more restrictive level." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.8% | 0.1% | 1.1% | N/A | ||
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For November. Released by Nationwide Building Society Nationwide Houses Prices y/y: 6.9% (Nov), forecast 8.3%, pr. 9.7% (Oct) The UK housing boom, which has been a major factor of strength for the UK economy the past 10 years, showed serious signs of slowing down as housing prices fell by the most in 12 years in November. The cost of a home fell to 184,099 pounds. This brings yearly house growth down to 6.9%. The report explains that individual months can see volatile action, and the large drop comes after a strong month in October. Nationwide does predict that housing prices will fail to rise next year for the first time since 1992, as a result of higher interest rates and slowdown in economic growth curb demand in the housing market. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.7% | N/A | ||
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Seasonally adjusted; For October Despite expectations of a contracting or at least decelerating housing market, Nationwide reported surprising price gains for October 2007. This is 2007's highest month to month rise, tying with June's pick-up. Commenting on the figures, Fionnuala Earley, Nationwide's Chief Economist, predicted: "November and December saw particularly robust gains in 2006, and unless prices perform very strongly for the rest of this year, the annual rate of price growth will resume a downward path." Annually, prices gained 9.7% to stand at an average of £186,044. She further warned that price increases mask the underlying deteriorating conditions in the housing market such as lower affordability, and tightening credit conditions. |
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