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Richmond Fed Index
Measures the general business conditions of manufacturers in the Richmond Federal Reserve district.
  • USA

Main Indicator: Richmond Fed Index

Most Recent Release

April
22nd, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0 3 6 N/A
For April
Provided by: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

The Richmond Fed showed that manufacturing activity declined further in April. Factory shipments and orders softened, and employment contracted again. Furthermore, respondents' outlook for the next 6 months deteriorated even more. Richmond Fed region's manufacturing has been continually softening, while the services sector is showing some resilience, albeit still contracting. On a national scale manufacturing has obviously taken a bigger hit then the services sector.

Employment loss is more significant in the goods-producing sector because these jobs tend to be more specialized. Thus it will be harder for these workers to look for another job. The services sector jobs have more flexible skill set requirements. Therefore, despite some buoyancy in the services sector, the Fed will be focused on the manufacturing sector's performance.

Table of Past Data

7/248/289/2510/2311/2712/261/222/263/254/22
Actual4714-50-4-8-560
Forecast4157-20-3-10-53
Previous44714-50-4-8-56
Revised FromN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A

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Past Releases

March
25th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
6 -5 -5 N/A
For March
Provided by: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Strong foreign demand boosted shipments and new orders. The overall index was positive for the first time in 5 months. However, components such as the employment index, and manufacturer's sentiments weakened further.
February
26th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-5 -10 -8 N/A

For February

Release from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

The decline of shipments eased. New orders and employment were slightly weaker. The overall activity remained in negative terrority but did not contract as fast as in January. The survey also captured foward looking sentiments:

"Looking forward, manufacturers softened their outlook for the next six months. Firms anticipated that their shipments, new orders and number of employees would grow less rapidly in the months ahead."

January
22nd, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-8 -3 -4 N/A
For January
Release from The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Current manufacturing activity in the fifth Fed district continued to decline, and harder than expected. The employment sub-index registered -2 after a reading of 5. The wage index however posted 12 after gaining 6 points. The expectations indexes were more optimistic as expected shipments jumped 7 points to 31, and new orders advanced 4 to 35. Planned capital expenditures receded 6 points to 16. Hiring plans were positive and rose from 0 to 12. Prices also rose sharply up to 4.23% annually from December's 3.19%.
December
26th, 2007
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-4 0 0 N/A
For December
Release from The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Sub-indexes, shipments(-10), and new orders(-6)pushed the current activity into negative territory in December. The employment sub-index did pick up 6 points to rebound to a reading of 5. Expectations of the upcoming 6-months are still upbeat but less rosy compared to November. Hiring plans edged lower as well. Prices had a sudden uptick to an annual rise of 3.19% compared to 2.00% in November.
November
27th, 2007
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0 -2 -5 N/A
For November. After a pullback in October, manufacturing activity in the central Atlantic region stabilized. Shipments was slightly positive, but was offset but slight decreases in new orders.

Prices are expected to increase faster in the upcoming 6 months. Employment levels are little changed, but wage and average workweek both declined slightly.
October
23rd, 2007
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-5 7 14 N/A
For October in the 5th Federal District, Richmond, VA.

Manufacturing activity scaled back after 4 months of increases. Shipments and new orders edged into negative territory. District contacts reported that the pace of hiring flattened, order backlogs declined further and delivery times grew more slowly. However, business contacts were more optimistic about the coming six months, and expect to expand employment.
September
25th, 2007
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
14 5 7 N/A
The Richmond Fed Index which measures manufacturing activity in the Atlantic region expanded at a solid pace in September. However, even though shipments and new orders advanced, firms anticipate an easing in shipments, employment, and capital expenditures. Price pressures are also expected to edge up.
August
28th, 2007
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
7 1 4 N/A
Manufacturing activity in the Atlantic region surprised by advancing in August on increases in shipments and new orders. The pace of hiring strengthened for the first time since Nov, 2006. Employment expectations were mixed and ended up little changed from July. Raw material prices grew slower, as finished good prices grew faster.
July
24th, 2007
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
4 4 4 N/A
Manufacturing index for the Richmond District of the Fed remained the same in July as the previous figure. Shipment index dropped to 5 from 7. Retail and services revenue indexes both dropped to 3 and 6 respectively. They were 16 and 13 in June.

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