For October
Provided by: Automatic Data Processing
Current Release: PDF

From the release: This month’s employment loss was driven by the goods-producing sector which declined 126,000 during October, its twenty-third consecutive monthly decline. The manufacturing sector marked its twenty-sixth consecutive monthly decline, losing 85,000 jobs. These losses were compounded by an employment decline in the service-providing sector of the economy which fell by 31,000, the first loss in the service-providing sector recorded by the ADP Report since November of 2002.

For September
Provided by: Automatic Data Processing
Official Release: PDF

From the Release: "Nonfarm private employment decreased 8,000 from August to September 2008 on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the ADP National Employment Report®. The estimated change in employment from July to August was revised down from a decrease of 33,000 to a decrease of 37,000.

September’s ADP National Employment Report continues to offer evidence of a weak labor market. Note that this month, the ADP Report does not reflect two special factors that might have further depressed employment in September. These are the strike of some 37,000 machinists against Boeing, and job losses related to hurricanes that struck the Gulf Coast."

For August
Provided by: Automatic Data Processing
Official Release: PDF

The ADP report showed that August saw a decrease of 33K private sector jobs. Also, July's figure was revised down. With the report coming close to forecasts it did not have an impact of the Dollar. 

From the Release: "Nonfarm private employment decreased 33,000 from July to August 2008 on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the ADP National Employment Report®. The estimated change in employment from June to July was revised down from an increase of 9,000 to an increase of 1,000. The decline in August continues the recent trend in employment that is consistent with an economy that is growing slowly but has not fallen into recession.

This month’s employment loss was driven by the goods-producing sector which declined 78,000 during August, its twenty-first consecutive monthly decline. The manufacturing sector marked its twenty-fourth consecutive monthly decline, losing 56,000 jobs. These losses were somewhat offset by employment gains in the service-providing sector of the economy which advanced by 45,000."

For July
Provided by: Automatic Data Processing
Previous Release: PDF

The ADP measure of employment change saw a 9K increase, handily beating expectations of a 55K decline. It was welcome news to Dollar bulls who used the data to bid up stocks and the US Dollar. Still, the number is not impressive in its own right and shows that the labor market in the US remains weak. Service jobs rose while manufacturers shed payrolls. Large and medium sized companies cut jobs, while small businesses advanced. The report showed that two of the hardest hit industries recently, construction and financial activities saw some moderation. 

From the Release: "Nonfarm private employment increased 9,000 from June to July 2008 on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the ADP National Employment Report®. The estimated change in employment from May to June was revised up from a decrease of 79,000 to a decrease of 77,000.

Though July’s figures showed a slight employment gain, the ADP Report’s recent three-month average of negative 14,000 suggests that the weakened employment situation continues.

This month’s employment gain was driven by growth in the service-providing sector which advanced 74,000. July employment in the goods-producing sector declined 65,000, while manufacturing employment declined 49,000, marking their twentieth and twenty-third consecutive monthly declines, respectively."

For June
Provided by: Automatic Data Processing
Official Release: PDF

Employment weakness persisted in June, and even spread to the service industry. The 79,000 job cuts was worse than the 20,000 economists had predicted, and May's headline number was revised down. Outlook for employment is pessimistic as indicated by deteriorating sentiments of employers in the Conference Board and Umich Consumer Sentiments surveys. 

From the Release: " Nonfarm private employment decreased 79,000 from May to June 2008 on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the ADP National Employment Report®. The estimated change in employment from April to May was revised down from an increase of 40,000 to an increase of 25,000.

This month’s decrease in employment was broad based across industrial sectors and suggests continued weakness in employment.

Employment in the service-providing sector of the economy declined 3,000, the first decline since November 2002. Employment in the goods-producing sector declined 76,000, with manufacturing employment falling 44,000, marking their nineteenth and twenty-second consecutive monthly declines, respectively.

For May
Provided by: Automatic Data Processing
Official Release: PDF

From the Release: "Nonfarm private employment increased 40,000 from April to May 2008 on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the ADP National Employment Report™. The estimated change in employment from March to April was revised up from an increase of 10,000 to an increase of 13,000.

Though May’s estimate for a moderate increase in employment is above consensus forecasts of an outright decline, it nevertheless suggests continued weakness in employment.

Employment in the service-providing sector of the economy grew 77,000, while employment in the goods-producing sector declined 37,000, the eighteenth consecutive monthly decline. Manufacturing employment fell 26,000 in May and marked the twentyfirst consecutive monthly decline."

For April
Provided by: Automatic Data Processing
Official Release: PDF

The ADP Employment Report reported that nonfarm private employment increased 10K in April, beating expectations of a decline. While jobs in the services industry continue increasing, manufacturing and construction continue declining.

From the Release: "Though April’s estimate for a small increase in employment is above consensus forecasts of an outright decline, it nevertheless suggests that a sharp deceleration of employment continues.

Employment in the service-providing sector of the economy grew 64,000, while employment in the goods-producing sector declined 54,000, the seventeenth consecutive monthly decline. Manufacturing employment fell 26,000 in April and marked the twentieth consecutive monthly decline.

Two sectors of the economy hit hardest by recent problems in mortgage markets have been residential construction and financial activities related to home sales and mortgage lending. In April, construction employment fell another 28,000. This is the seventeenth consecutive monthly decline, bringing the total decline in construction jobs since the peak in August 2006 to 288,000. Employment in the financial activities sector advanced just 2,000 for the month."

The ADP employment report paints a gloomy as the report registered the first negative since June of 2003. Employment in construction went for the 13th consecutive decline in February. The financial sector also shed 5,000 jobs for the 3rd drop in 5 months. Manufacturing employment dropped by 16,000. The services sector provided a pocket of job creation where employment grew by 71,000.

Following the news, the greenback fell hard across the board, except for against the Japanese Yen, and Swiss Franc.

Q1 of 2008 has a genuine possibility of showing negative GDP. A recession is officially 2 quarters of negative economic contraction. Q4 of last year showed the GDP stalled and can be interpretted either way. Technically, we won't hear an announcement of a recession until summer. But as Warren Buffet pointed out, we are essentially in a recession.