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Indicator Digest

ADP Employment Change
Automatic Data Processing (ADP) is the nation's premier provider of payroll-related services. The National Employment Report provides information on nonfarm private employment which can be used to assess the labor market in the US. It comes out several days before the more important Employment Situation from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
  • USA

Main Indicator: ADP Employment Change

Most Recent Release

July
1st, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-473K -385K -485K -532K

For June
Provided by: Automatic Data Processing
Official Release: PDF

From the Release: "Nonfarm private employment decreased 473,000 from May to June 2009 on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the ADP National Employment Report®. The estimated change of employment from April to May was revised by 47,000, from a decline of 532,000 to a decline of 485,000.

Monthly employment losses in April, May, and June averaged 492,000. This is a notable improvement over the first three months of the year, when monthly losses averaged 691,000. Nevertheless, despite some recent indications that economic activity is stabilizing, employment, which usually trails overall economic activity, is likely to decline for at least several more months, although perhaps not as rapidly as during the last six months.

June’s ADP Report estimates nonfarm private employment in the service-providing sector fell by 223,000. Employment in the goods-producing sector declined 250,000, with employment in the manufacturing sector dropping 146,000, its fortieth consecutive monthly decline."

Table of Past Data

10/111/512/31/72/43/44/15/66/37/1
Actual-8K-157K-250K-693K-522K-697K-742K-491K-532K-473K
Forecast-55K-100K-200K-450K-520K-620K-660K-644K-525K-385K
Previous-37K-26K-179K-476K-659K-614K-706K-708K-545K-485K
Revised From-33K-8K-157K-472K-693K-522K-697K-742K-491K-532K

Past Releases

June
3rd, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-532K -525K -545K -491K

For May
Provided by: Automatic Data Processing
Official Release: PDF

From the Release: "Nonfarm private employment decreased 532,000 from April to May 2009 on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the ADP National Employment Report®. The estimated change of employment from March to April was revised by 54,000, from a decline of 491,000 to a decline of 545,000.

Monthly employment losses in April and May averaged 539,000. This is a notable improvement over the first three months of the year, when monthly losses averaged 691,000. Nevertheless, despite some recent indications that economic activity is stabilizing, employment, which usually trails overall economic activity, is likely to decline for at least several more months, although perhaps not as rapidly as during the last six months."

May
6th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-491K -644K -708K -742K

For April
Provided by: Automatic Data Processing
Official Release: PDF

From the Release: "Nonfarm private employment decreased 491,000 from March to April 2009 on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the ADP National Employment Report®. The estimated change of employment from February to March was revised by 34,000, from a decline of 742,000 to a decline of 708,000.

April’s ADP Report estimates nonfarm private employment in the service-providing sector fell by 229,000. Employment in the goods-producing sector declined 262,000, with employment in the manufacturing sector dropping 159,000, its thirty-eighth consecutive monthly decline"

April
1st, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-742K -660K -706K -697K

For March
Provided by: Automatic Data Processing
Official Release: PDF

The ADP employment change showed the private sector shedding 742K jobs in March, a figure that was much worse than forecast, and renews concern about the labor market prior to Friday's non-farm payroll report. The figure was the worst since the ADP began tracking this indicator in 2001. The non-farm release is expected to show the economy losing around 650K jobs, which would put the number of job looses in the current downturn at more than 5 million.   

From the Release: "Nonfarm private employment decreased 742,000 from February to March 2009 on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the ADP National Employment Report®. The estimated change of employment from January to February was revised down by 9,000, from a decline of 697,000 to a decline of 706,000.

March’s ADP Report estimates nonfarm private employment in the service-providing sector fell by 415,000. Employment in the goods-producing sector declined 327,000, the twenty-seventh consecutive monthly decline. Employment in the manufacturing sector declined 206,000, its thirty-seventh consecutive decline."

March
4th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-697K -620K -614K -522K

For February
Provided by: Automatic Data Processing
Official Release: PDF

From the Release: "Nonfarm private employment decreased 697,000 from January 2009 to February 2009 on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the ADP National Employment Report®. The estimated change of employment from December 2008 to January 2009 was revised down by 92,000, from a decline of 522,000 to a decline of 614,000.

February’s ADP Report estimates nonfarm private employment in the service-providing sector fell by 359,000. Employment in the goods-producing sector declined 338,000, the twenty-sixth consecutive monthly decline. Employment in the manufacturing sector declined 219,000, its thirty-sixth consecutive decline."

February
4th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-522K -520K -659K -693K

For January
Provided by: Automatic Data Processing
Official Release: PDF

From the Release: "Nonfarm private employment decreased 522,000 from December 2008 to January 2009 on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the ADP National Employment Report®. The estimated change of employment from November to December 2008 was revised up by 34,000, from a decline of 693,000 to a decline of 659,000.

January’s ADP Report estimates nonfarm private employment in the service-providing sector fell by 279,000. Employment in the goods-producing sector declined 243,000, the twenty-fourth consecutive monthly decline. Employment in the manufacturing sector declined 160,000, its twenty-eighth decline over the last twenty-nine months."

January
7th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-693K -450K -476K -472K

For December
Provided by: Automatic Data Processing
Official Release: PDF

Companies in the US cut 693,000 jobs in December, the most since records began in 2001, a private report based on payroll data showed. The decline was larger than expectations and bodes ill for the non-farm payroll jobs report that is on tap for Friday. With the recession picking up steam in the 4th quarter, companies are laying off workers in an attempt to cut down on costs. From a downturn in housing and construction, which then spread to the financial services sector, we are seeing job losses affecting more and more companies following one of the weakest retail holiday seasons in decades. Employment among smaller firms and medium sized firms, those with less than 500 workers, led the decline the report showed as the recession hits more and more services. US stocks and the Dollar were pressured in the aftermath of the release.

From the Release: "Nonfarm private employment decreased 693,000 from November to December 2008 on a seasonally adjusted basis... December’s ADP Report estimates nonfarm private employment in the service-providing sector fell by 473,000. Employment in the goods-producing sector declined 220,000, the twenty-third consecutive monthly decline. Employment in the manufacturing sector declined 120,000, marking its twenty seventh decline over the last twenty eight months.

Large businesses, defined as those with 500 or more workers, saw employment decline 91,000, while medium-size businesses with between 50 and 499 workers declined 321,000. Employment among small-size businesses, defined as those with fewer than 50 workers, declined 281,000. Sharply falling employment at medium- and small-size businesses clearly indicates that the recession has now spread well beyond manufacturing and housing-related activities."

December
3rd, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-250K -200K -179K -157K

For November
Provided by: Automatic Data Processing
Official Release: PDF

From the Release: "Nonfarm private employment decreased 250,000 from October to November 2008 on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the ADP National Employment Report®. The estimated change in employment from September to October was revised down from a decrease of 157,000 to a decrease of 179,000.

November’s ADP National Employment Report offers evidence of a labor market that continues to weaken. This month’s employment loss was again driven by the goods-producing sector which declined 158,000 during November, its twenty-fourth consecutive monthly decline. The manufacturing sector marked its twenty-seventh consecutive monthly decline, losing 118,000 jobs. These losses were compounded by an employment decline in the service-providing sector of the economy which fell by 92,000, the second monthly loss in the service-providing sector recorded by the ADP Report since November of 2002."

November
5th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-157K -100K -26K -8K

For October
Provided by: Automatic Data Processing
Current Release: PDF

From the release: This month’s employment loss was driven by the goods-producing sector which declined 126,000 during October, its twenty-third consecutive monthly decline. The manufacturing sector marked its twenty-sixth consecutive monthly decline, losing 85,000 jobs. These losses were compounded by an employment decline in the service-providing sector of the economy which fell by 31,000, the first loss in the service-providing sector recorded by the ADP Report since November of 2002.
Businesses small medium or large saw decline in employment. Also, construction continues to shed employment, for the 23rd month in October. Now that the presidential election is out of the way, the market will be more sensitive to these job market data. The ADP report casts a dark cloud over Friday's official non-farm employment report from the government's bureau of labor statistics.
October
1st, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-8K -55K -37K -33K

For September
Provided by: Automatic Data Processing
Official Release: PDF

From the Release: "Nonfarm private employment decreased 8,000 from August to September 2008 on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the ADP National Employment Report®. The estimated change in employment from July to August was revised down from a decrease of 33,000 to a decrease of 37,000.

September’s ADP National Employment Report continues to offer evidence of a weak labor market. Note that this month, the ADP Report does not reflect two special factors that might have further depressed employment in September. These are the strike of some 37,000 machinists against Boeing, and job losses related to hurricanes that struck the Gulf Coast."