For August
Provided by: Confederation of British Industry
Official Release: News Release

A UK measure of retail sales fell to show a net balance of 46% of respondents answering sales were lower in the first half of August compared to a year ago. 38% of respondents believe the retail business will be worse off over the next three months, which damped investment intentions. The UK economy is facing pressures from every area. Housing continues to show anemic growth, consumer are pressured by higher prices for food and gas, and rising costs of living. With consumer confidence at very low levels, spending has decreased. As we outlined in Wednesday's Market Highlights, the Pound has been sliding sharply in August as traders price in rate cuts from the Bank of England.

From the Release: "A wet August and disappointing summer sales have compounded the deepening problems on the High Street, where sales have continued to fall sharply and jobs have been hit. It was the second month of sharp falls in sales volumes and, with a similar drop expected in September, business confidence is very weak. Growth in average selling prices has eased back from a 16 year high, but remains strong.

Sixty per cent of respondents to the latest CBI Distributive Trades Survey said that sales in the first half of August were lower than a year ago, while 13% said they were up. The resulting rounded balance of -46% was worse than anticipated (-32%) and the weakest since the survey began in 1983 - although changes in answering practices over the past 25 years diminish this comparison"

For August
Provided by: Confederation of British Industry
Official Release: News Release

The combination of needing to raise prices in an environment of shrinking demand causes major headaches to manufacturers, whose outlooks for the next three months are the lowest since December 2001. The sluggish Euro-zone economy also making it tough for UK exports, although the declining pound has helped make British goods more competitive.

From the Release: "Manufacturers' output expectations for the next three months are the weakest for seven years, the latest CBI Industrial Trends Survey reveals today (Wednesday). At the same time, the balance of firms expecting the price of manufactured goods to rise has barely changed since last month's 18-year high.

The outlook for manufacturing output has continued to deteriorate in August, following the first negative expectation since December 2005 in July. While 20% of firms in this month's survey expect their volume of output will increase in the coming quarter, 33% expect it will fall. The resulting balance of -13% is the weakest since December 2001 (-28%).

Demand for manufactured goods weakened for a second month after signs of improvement earlier in the summer. A net 13% of manufacturers judged total order book levels to be ‘below normal', matching April's 18-month low figure. Firms' perception of export orders was less negative, indicating that external demand is holding up somewhat better, though this month's balance of -9% is the lowest since May (-12%)."

For July
Provided by: Confederation of British Industry
Previous Release: News Release

The retail sector is struggled through a rough patch this summer. Sales volume fell sharply in July, and the outlook remains grim according to the CBI. 61% respondents reported weaker sales than a year ago, with only 25% reporting higher sales, resulting in the -36% net, the weakest since the survety began in 1983, and significantly below expectations of a softer decline.

Sales have not been working this summer as they have somewhat helped earlier in the beginning of the year. This drag was felt throughout the supply chain as those reporting lower new orders with suppliers also netted a balance of 37%. Partially to blame for the poor figures is the depressed housing market which is keeping a low ceiling on home prices of home furnishings and other related products. Of course the ongoing inflation and fears of a recession are working to keep the consumer's disposable spending light. 

For July
Provided by: Confederation of British Industry
Official Release: News Release

Orders placed with UK manufacturers fell -8, slipping back into negative territory after posting a positive reading in June. The figure was also lower than expectations of -5. Manufactureres are being forced to raise prices as their costs increase at a rapid pace, but this may be hurting new orders.

The Pound brushed off the news, as it did the weak BBA mortgage approvals number, and gained on the Dollar as a result of the UK meeting minutes.

From the Release: "Manufacturers have continued to raise the prices of their goods, in the face of the fiercest cost increases since 1980, a CBI survey shows today (Wednesday). The latest Industrial Trends survey, which celebrates its 50th anniversary this week*, reveals that persistently high costs coupled with firms' expectations of slowing demand have led to a widespread drop in business confidence.

In the last three months, average unit costs rose for 65% of manufacturers while they fell for just 7%. The resulting balance of +58, the highest since October 1980 (+58), comes on the back of soaring oil prices, up by over a third in the last quarter alone. Firms expect costs to increase at a similar rate in the next three months.

As a result, firms have attempted to offset some of the damage to their profit margins by raising prices. For two quarters in a row, domestic prices have risen markedly (a balance of +21 recorded in April and +27 this survey period) while export prices have also gone up at an accelerated rate (+12 and +19). This quarter's figures are the highest since April 1995, and firms expect prices to increase over the next three months at the highest rate since January 1990 for domestic prices, and January 1995 for export prices.

Firms' mood about the business situation darkened considerably for the fourth quarter in a row, but this time sentiment has taken an even greater dive - the balance of -40 is the weakest since October 2001 (-54)."

For June
Provided by: Confederation of British Industry
Official Release: News Release

Retailers suffered another weaker month of sales. There were 9% more respondents reporting weaker sales that an improvement in sales. Demand had decreased as consumers are pressured by rising costs for necessities such as energy and food, while the housing market slumps and the economy slows down. Annual sales were weaker for clothing, books and stationary, and products tied to housing, such as durable household goods, furniture & carpets, hardware, china, etc.. The release was better than in May, and surprised the forecast of a -17 reading on the upside. The Pound picked up vs the Dollar continuing yesterday's quiet rally.

From the Release: "It has been another difficult month for the high street as pressure on household budgets continues, and retailers also fear that beleaguered shoppers will not be tempted by the July sales, the CBI said today (Wednesday).

Thirty nine per cent of retail respondents to its latest Distributive Trades Survey reported that in the first half of June sales were lower than a year ago, while 30% said sales had increased.

The resulting balance of -9% disappointed expectations of modest growth in sales volumes, but was an improvement on last month's balance of -14% and April's very weak figure (-26). A slightly slower decline is predicted next month (-7%). The 9% survey balance equates to annual volume growth of just over 2% on the ONS measure."

For June
Provided by: Confederation of British Industry
June's Release: News Release

Orders edged up, with a balance of 1% of surveyed manufactuerers reporting improvements. From the release:

While manufacturers saw a modest improvement in their order books in June, the rise in prices of manufactured goods will continue almost unabated over the next three months, the CBI warned today (Wednesday).
...
Thirty-one per cent of firms in the CBI’s June Industrial Trends Survey reported order books as ‘above normal’ and 30% said they were ‘below normal’, giving a balance of +1%. Exporters’ order book levels have also improved since May (a balance of -5% compared with -12% in the previous two months).

From the release:

Asked about their year-on-year sales volumes, 28% of retailers said they had increased, while 42% said they had fallen. The resulting balance of -14% was in line with retailers' expectations and is less severe than the net -26% reported last month. Sales are expected to recover slightly in June, by a balance of +6%.

For May
Provided by: Confederation of British Industry
Official Release: News Release

From the Release: "The CBI warned today (Tuesday) that the price of manufactured goods would rise steeply over the coming months, even as activity in the sector slows. The highest balance of manufacturing firms since 1995 have told the CBI their products will get more expensive over the coming three months, as rising oil prices drive up costs.

At the same time though, manufacturers said their order books are 'below normal' and that they don't expect output to grow in the next quarter. In the CBI's May Industrial Trends Survey, 21% of firms rated their total order book as above normal and 31% said it was below, giving a balance of -10 (-12 for export orders).

Firms also do not expect their volume of output to grow over the next three months but believe it will flatten out (a zero balance, the same as in April's survey). Despite shrinking demand, 36% of manufacturers expect they will put their prices up over the next quarter, compared to just 6% who say they will fall."

For April
Provided by: Confederation of British Industry
Official Release: News Release 

From the Release:

"Year-on-year retail sales fell markedly in April as poor weather and the early Easter added to the economic slowdown to dent spending, the CBI said today (Tuesday).

Sales of big-ticket items, particularly those tied to the housing market, saw some of the biggest falls, according to the business organisation's Distributive Trades Survey.

The monthly snapshot of the high street showed that 52% of retailers said sales volumes were down on a year ago compared to 25% who said they were up. The rounded balance of -26 was the weakest since November 2005 and is only expected to improve to -15 in May, signalling further falls in sales volumes."

For April
Provided by: Confederation of British Industry
Official Release: News Release

From the Release: "Manufacturers are raising the prices of their goods to try to counter the fiercest increases since 1990 in unit costs, driven by more expensive energy and raw materials, the CBI said today (Thursday).

These cost pressures are intensifying even as orders and output are showing signs of easing in a sector that has so far proven resilient to recent economic shocks.

Manufacturing output failed to grow in line with firms' expectations - instead firms reported little change (a balance of -3%), and a similarly flat quarter is expected ahead. Domestic orders fell back noticeably (-13%) and are expected to fall again. Export order growth declined more moderately (-5%) and, more positively, a balance of 5% expects growth next quarter."

For March
Provided by: Confederation of British Industry
Official Release: News Release

Pre-Release:
The CBI Distributive Trades Realized index, a measure activity in the retail sector,  turned negative at -3 in February. The indicator had been hovering in single digits in Jan and Dec, and was expected to fall even further this month.

Post Release:
The index surprised on the upside, and crawled back into positive territory, though barely.

From the Release:

"Retail activity remained subdued in March with high street stores reporting flat year-on-year sales, the latest CBI Distributive Trades Survey shows today (Thursday). About a third (36%) of retailers told the business organisation their sales volumes in the first half of the month were higher than a year earlier while 35% said they were lower. The resulting balance of +1 was marginally better than retailers' expectations (-2), which followed February's figure of -3, the first negative balance since November 2006.

The three-month moving average, which smooths out blips and monthly volatility, continued its gradual fall from its peak of +36 last May to +1 this month. Unsurprisingly given this slowdown, retailers described sales for the time of year as poor (29% compared to 15% saying they were good, a balance of -14). "

For March
Provided by: Confederation of British Industry

"Healthy overseas demand helped manufacturers fill their order books last month and kept the sector growing despite the wider economic slowdown, the CBI said today.

However its March Industrial Trends Survey also showed that an increasing proportion of firms expect to put up prices soon, which will add to inflationary pressure in the economy.

Commenting, Ian McCafferty, the CBI's chief economic adviser, said: "Manufacturing is not only holding up as the wider economy slows but growing on the back of strong exports.

With the prospects for the domestic market uncertain, it is important that firms can continue to attract overseas business which a competitive pound will help enormously."

For February
Provided by: Confederation of British Industry
Official Release: News Release

"Manufacturers are enjoying the longest run of sustained demand for 12 years, bucking the slowdown in other parts of the economy, according to a CBI survey of the sector. However firms expect to continue the recent trend of marked price rises over the coming months. In the monthly Industrial Trends Survey, published today (Wednesday) a balance of 3% of firms said their total orders books were 'above normal'.

This was the tenth time in 12 months that firms said order books were so healthy, the strongest showing since 1995. This has largely been driven by demand for capital goods, with orders books in this sector at levels seen only once before (August 2007) in the 20 years the data has been available.

However export demand eased this month with a balance of 8% of firms saying orders were 'below normal'. As a result of this, firms expect their output to grow over the coming three months (a balance of 11%) although at rates slightly lower than seen in the first half of 2007.

A balance of 22% of firms told the CBI that they expect their domestic prices to go up over the next three months, particularly among food and metal products manufacturers.

Ian McCafferty, CBI chief economic adviser, said: "It is encouraging to see that the slowdown already in train in some sectors of the economy has not yet hit manufacturers. While manufacturing is not going to be immune to weaker demand at home and abroad, the recent depreciation in sterling will be a helpful boost for exporters over coming months. A resilient, export-orientated manufacturing sector is exactly what we need as we enter a tricky period of rebalancing the economy away from its dependence on domestic demand."

For January
Confederation of British Industry

UK retail sales volumes grew at their slowest rate since Nov 2006 in January, the CBI reported. The balance of retailers reporting higher sales in January, fell to 4 from 8 in December. UK consumers are being more cautious about big ticket purchases. Durable household goods, those designed to last longer than 3 years, fell to a balance of -66, from -7 in December. Some economists had predicted an even sharper drop in the retail sector, though this data shows that consumer spending, though diminished, has not collapsed..