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Indicator Digest

UBS Consumption Indicator
The UBS Consumption Indicator is calculated from five sub-indicators: new car sales, business activity in the retail sector, the number of domestic hotel overnights by Swiss nationals, the consumer sentiment index and credit card transactions via UBS points of sale in Switzerland.
  • SWZ

Main Indicator: UBS Consumption Indicator

Most Recent Release

June
30th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.77 0.91 N/A

For May
Provided by: UBS
Official Release: Media Release

From Release: The UBS consumption indicator, which is calculated monthly, fell in May from 0.91 to 0.77, thereby continuing its downward trend. The indicator has thus remained below its long-term average of 1.50 for eight consecutive months now.
At its current level, the UBS consumption indicator signals that Swiss consumer spending is continuing to increase slightly. The prospects are, however, becoming increasingly gloomy. In the course of the economic downturn, unemployment is likely to increase significantly in the coming months, which will have a negative impact on consumption tendencies. On a more positive note, falling inflation, especially with regard to energy sources, is likely to bolster purchasing power and hence consumer spending. Following a 1.7% real increase in consumer spending last year, UBS forecasts a more modest increase of 0.4% for 2009.

Table of Past Data

9/3010/2811/2512/301/272/243/314/285/266/30
Actual1.621.671.3160.961.150.9850.880.990.920.77
Forecast
Previous1.861.581.671.320.961.150.990.890.990.91
Revised From1.841.62N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A

Past Releases

May
26th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.92 0.99 N/A

For April
Provided by: UBS
Official Release: Media Release

From the Release: "The monthly UBS consumption indicator fell in April from 0.99 to 0.92, resuming the downtrend following the rise in March. The indicator has thus remained below its long-term average of 1.50 for seven months. The decline in April is to a large extent due to the decline in new car registrations, which have fallen by 12.9% compared to the same period last year, and the gloomy consumer sentiment. The seasonal decline in the number of domestic overnight stays in hotels by Swiss nationals has also had a negative effect. However, improved business activity in the retail sector has prevented a stronger decline in the UBS consumption indicator.

At its current level, the UBS consumption indicator signals that Swiss consumer spending is continuing to increase slightly. The prospects are, however, becoming increasingly gloomy. In the course of the economic downturn, unemployment is likely to increase significantly in the coming months, which will have a negative impact on consumption tendencies. However, on a more positive note, falling inflation, especially with regard to energy sources, is likely to bolster purchasing power and hence consumer spending. Following a 1.7% real increase in consumer spending last year, UBS forecasts a more modest increase of 0.4% for 2009."

April
28th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.99 0.89 N/A

For March
Provided by: UBS
Official Release: Media Release

From the Release: "The UBS consumption indicator rose slightly in March. However, at 0.99, it remains below its long-term average. At its current level, the UBS consumption indicator signals that Swiss consumer spending is continuing to increase slightly. The prospects are, however, becoming increasingly gloomy.

In the course of the economic downturn, unemployment is likely to increase significantly in the coming months, which will have a negative impact on consumption tendencies. However, on a more positive note, falling inflation, especially with regard to energy sources, is likely to bolster purchasing power and hence consumer spending. Following a 1.7% real increase in consumer spending last year, UBS forecasts a more modest increase of 0.4% for 2009."

March
31st, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.88 0.99 N/A

For February
Provided by: UBS
Official Release: Media Release

From the Release: "The monthly UBS consumption indicator fell in February from 0.92 to 0.89 and has thus continued on its downward trend. The indicator remains below its long-term average of 1.50 for the fifth time in a row. The continued decline in February is mainly due to the dramatic fall in new car registrations, which have fallen by 18.6% compared to the same period last year. Business activity in the retail sector also deteriorated. A slightly brighter consumer sentiment prevented the UBS consumption indicator from falling more heftily. The seasonal increase in domestic overnight stays in hotels by Swiss nationals has also made a positive contribution.

At its current level, the UBS consumption indicator signals that Swiss consumer spending is continuing to increase slightly. The prospects are, however, becoming increasingly gloomy. In the course of the economic downturn, unemployment is likely to increase significantly in the coming months, which will have a negative impact on consumption tendencies. However, on a more positive note, falling inflation, especially with regard to energy sources, is likely to bolster purchasing power and hence consumer spending."

February
24th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.985 1.15 N/A

For January
Provided by: UBS
Official Release: Media Release

From the Release: "In January, the UBS consumption indicator once again embarked on the downtrend seen in recent months. Although with 0.99 it continues to show positive growth in private consumption, it remains below its long-term average for the fourth time in a row. As a consequence, the prospects for Swiss consumer spending are looking increasingly gloomy.

The decline in January is mainly due to the striking decline in new car registrations, which have fallen by 17.5% compared to the same period last year. The somewhat brighter consumer sentiment as well as the improved business activity in the retail sector countered a stronger decline in the UBS consumption indicator. The seasonal increase in domestic overnight stays in hotels by Swiss nationals has also made a positive contribution."

 

January
27th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
1.15 0.96 N/A

For December
Provided by: UBS
Official Release: Media Release

From the Release: "In December, the recent downward trend of the UBS consumption indicator stopped. However, at 1.15, it remains below its long-term average. As a consequence, the prospects for Swiss consumer spending are looking increasingly gloomy.

The monthly UBS consumption indicator rose slightly in December from 0.96 to 1.15 and has thus halted the downtrend seen in recent months. However, the indicator remained below its long-term average of 1.50 for the third consecutive month.

The UBS consumption indicator is calculated from five sub-indicators: new car sales, business activity in the retail sector; the number of domestic overnight visits in hotels by Swiss residents; the consumer sentiment index; and credit card transactions via UBS at points of sale in Switzerland. The modest recovery in December is attributable to the 5.8% year-on-year increase in the number of new passenger car registrations as well as the seasonal increase in domestic hotel visits by Swiss nationals. However, the deteriorating consumer confidence and the weaker business activity in the retail sector point to a deteriorating propensity to consume. Business activity fell below its long-term average for the first time since May 2006."
December
30th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.96 1.32 N/A

For November
Provided by: UBS
Official Release: Media Release

From the Release: "In November, the monthly UBS consumption indicator fell further from 1.32 to 0.96, its lowest value in three and a half years. It confirmed the downward trend since the middle of the year and the indicator remains under its long-term average of 1.50.

The heavy decline in November can be traced to a weakening of all five sub-indicators. While the decline in domestic overnight stays in hotels by Swiss residents is seasonal, 16% less new car registrations compared to the year before and the fall of the consumer sentiment index both point to a decline in the propensity to consume. Although business activity in the retail sector has remained above its long-term average, even here the downward trend is continuing.

At its current level, the UBS consumption indicator signals that Swiss consumer spending will continue to grow. However, prospects are becoming increasingly dim. In the course of the economic downturn, unemployment may increase in the coming months, which will have a negative impact on consumption tendencies. On the other hand, it can be positively noted that declining inflation, particularly with regard to energy, is supporting purchasing power and thus private consumption as well."

November
25th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
1.316 1.67 N/A

For October
Provided by: UBS
Official Release: Media Release

Figures for Swiss consumption fell significantly in October, painting a gloomy picture going forward for the economy. With exports to the Euro-zone and others shrinking, and the financial sector straining, consumer spending has been the key driver in recent growth. But as unemployment begins to creep up and the economy slows, consumers and firms are scaling back purchases. The indicator's fall to 1.316 is the first time in two and half years that the index has dropped below its long term average.  

From the Release: "After a slight increase in September, the UBS consumption indicator noticeably fell in October. At 1.32, it dropped below its long-term average value for the first time in two and a half years. The outlook for private consumption in Switzerland is thus becoming increasingly dim.

The monthly UBS consumption indicator significantly fell from 1.64 to 1.32 in October. Following a slight increase in September, the indicator thus continued its declining trend of previous months, falling below the year-long average of 1.50 for the first time since April 2006."

October
28th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
1.67 1.58 1.62

For September

Provided by UBS
Current: Media Release

From the release: Following the marked downward movement seen in July and August, the UBS consumption indicator recovered again slightly in September. At its current level of 1.67, it still signals that Swiss consumer spending has continued to develop healthily. However, prospects are looking increasingly gloomy.
September
30th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
1.62 1.86 1.84

For August
Provided by: UBS
Official Release: Media Release

From the Release: "Since the interim high in June, the UBS consumption indicator has fallen consistently. The distinct adjustment in July was followed by another drop in August to 1.62. At its current level, the UBS consumption indicator still signals that Swiss private consumption is continuing its solid development, but prospects are looking increasingly gloomy.

The monthly UBS consumption indicator again fell significantly in August to 1.62. After the interim high of 2.22 in June, it fell to 1.86 in July. The downturn since June marks the largest adjustment in about six years. Nevertheless, the UBS consumption indicator is still above its long-term average of 1.50."