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Indicator Digest

UBS Consumption Indicator
The UBS Consumption Indicator is calculated from five sub-indicators: new car sales, business activity in the retail sector, the number of domestic hotel overnights by Swiss nationals, the consumer sentiment index and credit card transactions via UBS points of sale in Switzerland.
  • SWZ

Main Indicator: UBS Consumption Indicator

Most Recent Release

February
23rd, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
1.36 1.20 N/A

For January
Provided by: UBS
Official Release: Media Release

From the Release: "Following a modest decline in December, the UBS Consumption Indicator rose clearly in January. At 1.36 (previous month: 1.19), it is again approaching the levels seen prior to the Lehman Brothers collapse and the ensuing turbulence in the financial markets. The marked increase in January is ascribable to improving business activity in the retail sector, an increase in new vehicle registrations and an improvement in consumer sentiment."

Table of Past Data

5/266/307/288/259/2910/2711/2412/291/262/23
Actual0.920.770.960.770.660.630.871.281.201.36
Forecast
Previous0.990.910.750.950.770.620.670.871.281.20
Revised FromN/AN/AN/A0.96N/A0.660.63N/AN/AN/A

Past Releases

January
26th, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
1.20 1.28 N/A
December
29th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
1.28 0.87 N/A
November
24th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.87 0.67 0.63

For October
Provided by: UBS
Official Release: Media Release

From the Release: "The UBS consumption indicator rose slightly in October, but this does not represent a trend reversal. The indicator has languished at low levels this year, and with unemployment on the rise, consumption spending is likely to suffer. UBS economists do not expect consumer spending to recover until the second half of next year.

Swiss private consumption remains under pressure, as shown by the monthly UBS consumption indicator. While the index rose modestly in October, from 0.67 to 0.87, it remains below its long-term average of 1.5, indicating a modest increase in private consumption year-on-year."

 

October
27th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.63 0.62 0.66

For September
Provided by: UBS
Previous Release: Media Release

September
29th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.66 0.77 N/A

For August
Provided by: UBS
Official Release: Media Release

From the Release: "The economy is exerting pressure on consumer spending. The UBS consumption indicator has weakened once again in August and at 0.66 is clearly below its long-standing average of 1.5. Contributing to the renewed decline in the UBS consumption indicator are in particular the flagging consumer confidence and the continued decline in car sales and hotel overnight stays. Despite the current economic weakness, the indicator’s positive level hints at a modest increase in Swiss private consumption in August. However, the environment remains difficult. The rise in unemployment until the end of the year, both as a result of economic developments and seasonal, may well further dampen consumer spending. UBS therefore expects a further weakening of private consumption in the coming months. After a growth forecast of 0.8% in 2009, UBS is expecting a clearly smaller increase for 2010 of 0.1%."

August
25th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.77 0.95 0.96
For July
Provided by: UBS
Previous Release: Media Release
July
28th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.96 0.75 N/A

For June
Provided by: UBS
Official Release: Media Release

"Following a 12-month downswing, the UBS consumption indicator recovered slightly in June. However, it still remains below its long-term average. While the indicator’s level hints at a modest expansion in Swiss private consumption, the environment for the coming months remains difficult.

In June, the monthly UBS consumption indicator rose from 0.75 to 0.96, marking a slight recovery following a 12-month downswing. However, the indicator has remained below its long-term average of 1.50 for nine months now."


June
30th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.77 0.91 N/A

For May
Provided by: UBS
Official Release: Media Release

From Release: The UBS consumption indicator, which is calculated monthly, fell in May from 0.91 to 0.77, thereby continuing its downward trend. The indicator has thus remained below its long-term average of 1.50 for eight consecutive months now.
At its current level, the UBS consumption indicator signals that Swiss consumer spending is continuing to increase slightly. The prospects are, however, becoming increasingly gloomy. In the course of the economic downturn, unemployment is likely to increase significantly in the coming months, which will have a negative impact on consumption tendencies. On a more positive note, falling inflation, especially with regard to energy sources, is likely to bolster purchasing power and hence consumer spending. Following a 1.7% real increase in consumer spending last year, UBS forecasts a more modest increase of 0.4% for 2009.

May
26th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.92 0.99 N/A

For April
Provided by: UBS
Official Release: Media Release

From the Release: "The monthly UBS consumption indicator fell in April from 0.99 to 0.92, resuming the downtrend following the rise in March. The indicator has thus remained below its long-term average of 1.50 for seven months. The decline in April is to a large extent due to the decline in new car registrations, which have fallen by 12.9% compared to the same period last year, and the gloomy consumer sentiment. The seasonal decline in the number of domestic overnight stays in hotels by Swiss nationals has also had a negative effect. However, improved business activity in the retail sector has prevented a stronger decline in the UBS consumption indicator.

At its current level, the UBS consumption indicator signals that Swiss consumer spending is continuing to increase slightly. The prospects are, however, becoming increasingly gloomy. In the course of the economic downturn, unemployment is likely to increase significantly in the coming months, which will have a negative impact on consumption tendencies. However, on a more positive note, falling inflation, especially with regard to energy sources, is likely to bolster purchasing power and hence consumer spending. Following a 1.7% real increase in consumer spending last year, UBS forecasts a more modest increase of 0.4% for 2009."