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Main Indicator: Chicago PMI
Most Recent Release
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 48.3 | 48.0 | 48.2 | N/A | ||
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For April
Provided by: Kingsbury Official Release: Summary Page Chicago's business environment is little changed from that of the previous month, and is contracting. The employment index fell hard to 35.5 from 44.6 The new orders index dropped to 53.0 from 53.9. Prices paid declined to 82.9 from 83.9. At least the pace of contraction is not accelerating. Numbers that are "not that bad" will be interpreted as a sign that a bottom is showing and reinforce ideas that the recession is a shallow one. |
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Table of Past Data
| 7/31 | 8/31 | 9/28 | 10/31 | 11/30 | 12/28 | 1/31 | 2/29 | 3/31 | 4/30 | ||
| Actual | 53.4 | 53.8 | 54.2 | 49.7 | 52.9 | 56.6 | 51.5 | 44.5 | 48.2 | 48.3 | |
| Forecast | 59.0 | 53.0 | 53.5 | 53.0 | 51.0 | 52.0 | 52.1 | 49.4 | 46.0 | 48.0 | |
| Previous | 60.2 | 53.4 | 53.8 | 54.2 | 49.7 | 52.9 | 56.6 | 51.5 | 44.5 | 48.2 | |
| Revised From | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
Past Releases
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 48.2 | 46.0 | 44.5 | N/A | ||
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For March
From Bloomberg: "Exports spurred new orders and production as U.S. business activity shrank less than forecast in March, supporting the economy as consumers pare spending. The National Association of Purchasing Management-Chicago said today its business index rose to 48.2 in March from a six- year low of 44.5 a month earlier. Figures lower than 50 signal contraction and the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News projected a gain to 46. The report may help ease concern that businesses investment would plummet as soaring fuel costs and slowing sales hurt profits. Orders from overseas may help American factories cope with the loss in domestic demand wrought by the nine-month credit freeze and a housing slump now in its third year." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 44.5 | 49.4 | 51.5 | N/A | ||
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For February
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 51.5 | 52.1 | 56.6 | N/A | ||
| For January | |||||
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 56.6 | 52.0 | 52.9 | N/A | ||
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For December.
Release from NAPM-Chicago Business Survey - 2007 December The expectations of a slowdown was beat as the Chicago Business Barometer pulled further up away from the neutral 50 mark. However this will provide for a "soft landing" scenario as the overall trend is still declining. Production slowed while New Orders expanded and Order Backlogs surged; Employment contracted slightly; Prices Paid expanded for the 71st consecutive month; Buying Policy: Lead-times declined. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 52.9 | 51.0 | 49.7 | N/A | ||
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For November. New Orders Index: 53.9, pr. 53.9 Employment Index: 54.4, pr 49.5 Prices Paid: 76.2, 74.7 The Chicago PMI broke back above the boom-bust line of 50, recording a 52.9 for November. Looking at the subgauges, most of the difference came from the Employment Index which increased to 54.4 from 49.5. New Orders remained the same. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 49.7 | 53.0 | 54.2 | N/A | ||
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For October The larger than expected drop to business conditions put the number below the 50 level, which means the month saw a contraction to activity. The Kingsbury consulting firm was pessimistic after the Chicago report, stating "October’s fall removed another layer of hope for a robust end of 2007 including the opportunity to build momentum into 2008." It further concluded that strength in New Orders were countered by weakness in Order Backlogs. "The data suggests expanding New Orders are insufficient to maintain Production in spite of drawing down Order Backlogs." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 54.2 | 53.5 | 53.8 | N/A | ||
| For September | |||||
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 53.8 | 53.0 | 53.4 | N/A | ||
| Chicago's Purchasing Manager's index bested expectations in August. New Orders jumped to 58.5 from 53.4. Inventories slid to 44.6 from 55.1 in July. Employment also decreased to 53.7 from 61.6. | |||||
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 53.4 | 59.0 | 60.2 | N/A | ||
| Business expanded at a much slower pace in July. The subindexes production(60.0), new orders(55.0) and order backlogs(39.0), and inventories(54.0) all fell. Prices paid(68.0) increased and showed expanding price pressure. Employment also jumped (59.0). The Chicago business survey also noted, July automotive slowdown, delay in business investment due to lack of confidence, and new orders have declined in the last 3 months. | |||||