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Indicator Digest

Unemployment Rate and Employment Change
Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of people that do not have jobs of all the people in the job force. Those people that are discouraged and "are not actively seeking work" are no longer counted. The participation rate tell you what percentage of the work-age population currently has a job.

Main Indicator: Nonfarm Employment Change

Most Recent Release

March
5th, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-36K -68K -26K -20K

For February
Latest Release Provided by: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Unempl. Rate: 9.7%, pr. 9.7% (Jan), 10.0% (Dec), 10.0% (Nov),
10.2% (Oct), 9.8% (Sep), 9.7% (Aug), 9.4% (Jul), 9.5% (Jun),
9.4% (May), 8.9% (Apr), 8.5% (Mar), 8.1% (Feb), 7.6% (Jan)

Table of Past Data

6/57/28/79/410/211/612/41/82/53/5
Actual-345K-467K-247K-216K-263K-190K-11K-85K-20K-36K
Forecast-520K-345K-320K-223K-186K-173K-111K-10K13K-68K
Previous-504K-322K-443K-276K-201K-219K-111K4K-150K-26K
Revised From-539K-345K-467K-247K-216K-263K-190K-11K-85K-20K

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Secondary Indicator: Unemployment Rate

Most Recent Release

March
5th, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
9.7% 9.8% 9.7% N/A

Table of Past Data

6/57/28/79/410/211/612/41/82/53/5
Actual9.4%9.5%9.4%9.7%9.8%10.2%10.0%10.0%9.7%9.7%
Forecast9.2%9.6%9.6%9.5%9.8%9.9%10.2%10.1%10.0%9.8%
Previous8.9%9.4%9.5%9.4%9.7%9.8%10.2%10.0%10.0%9.7%
Revised FromN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A

Past Releases

Nonfarm Employment Change
February
5th, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-20K 13K -150K -85K

For January
Latest Release Provided by: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Unempl. Rate: 9.7%, pr. 10.0% (Dec), 10.0% (Nov), 10.2% (Oct),
9.8% (Sep), 9.7% (Aug), 9.4% (Jul), 9.5% (Jun), 9.4% (May),
8.9% (Apr), 8.5% (Mar), 8.1% (Feb), 7.6% (Jan), 7.2% (Dec)

The non-farm payroll report showed that the economy continued to shed jobs in January, with 20K more workers cut. Expectations had been for a flat reading. Adding to that weaker-than-expected figure was a rather large downward revision to December’s figure were 150K jobs were lost compared to the originally reported 85K. However, November’s figure was revised to show a 64K gain in jobs from a previous reading that only 4K jobs were added. In January, employment fell in construction, transportation and warehousing, while retail trade and temporary help services added jobs.

Despite the negative headline figure, the unemployment rate, which is conducted using a different survey, fell down to 9.7% during the month from an unrevised 10% in December. The underemployment rate, which includes those workers that are currently not looking for work though they have done so recently, fell to 16.5% from 17.3%. The Labor Department conducted its annual benchmark revision to its survey for the full 2009 period and it showed that job losses were almost 600K more than previously reported.

All in all, the report should not sway the Federal Reserve’s view that US interest rates must remain at a record low for several. Inflation remains subdued and the labor market’s performance is likely to be the main driver of Fed decisions this year.

The reaction to today’s report in the currency markets was rather muted, though the greenback was weaker in the immediate aftermath against the Euro and Aussie, while slightly higher against the Yen.

Unemployment Rate
February
5th, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
9.7% 10.0% 10.0% N/A
Nonfarm Employment Change
January
8th, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-85K -10K 4K -11K

For December
Latest Release Provided by: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Unempl. Rate: 10.0%, pr. 10.0% (Nov), 10.2% (Oct), 9.8% (Sep),
9.7% (Aug), 9.4% (Jul), 9.5% (Jun), 9.4% (May), 8.9% (Apr),
8.5% (Mar), 8.1% (Feb), 7.6% (Jan), 7.2% (Dec), 6.8% (Nov),
6.5% (Oct), 6.1% (Sep)

The US economy shed 85K jobs in December, a figure that disappointed forecasts and weakened the greenback in the immediate aftermath of the release. The markets had already priced in a firmer report as expectations had called for a small decline and perhaps even an increase and so there was room for the greenback to slide if the news came in weaker than expected, which it did. The unemployment rate remained at 10%, while November's figure was revised higher to show a positive month of job growth (+4K compared to originally reported -11K). Employment fell in construction (-53K), manufacturing (-27K), and wholesale trade, while temp help services (+47K) and health care (+22K) added jobs.

The report may cool the speculation that the Fed may be closer to tightening monetary policy, which has been bolstering the greenback since November's non-farm payroll release came out in early December. Still, there are other factors supporting the greenback, such as credit concerns in Europe and the loose monetary stance of the Bank of England and Bank of Japan. Still, today's data is a knock on the pace of the recovery in the US economy.   

Unemployment Rate
January
8th, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
10.0% 10.1% 10.0% N/A
Nonfarm Employment Change
December
4th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-11K -111K -111K -190K

For November
Latest Release Provided by: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Unempl. Rate: 10.0%, pr. 10.2% (Oct), 9.8% (Sep), 9.7% (Aug),
9.4% (Jul), 9.5% (Jun), 9.4% (May), 8.9% (Apr), 8.5% (Mar),
8.1% (Feb), 7.6% (Jan), 7.2% (Dec), 6.8% (Nov), 6.5% (Oct),
6.1% (Sep)

Non-farm payrolls dropped by a seasonally adjusted 11K in November, the fewest since December 2007. The figure was much better than expected, and for the months of September and October the number of job losses was revised lower by a total of 159K. Service producing industries added 58K, the second straight month of increases, while goods-producing sector lost 69K jobs (27K in construction and 41K in manufacturing). Temp hiring was up (+54K), and a larger percentage of industries were hiring. The unemployment rate meanwhile fell down to 10%. If you include discouraged workers and those forced to work part-time, the rate fell to 17.2% from 17.5%, though despite the decline remains at a very elevated level.

The reaction in the markets was swift as the Yen fell weaker to  greenback and others, while the Dollar in the immediate aftermath of the release rose against the Euro. 

Unemployment Rate
December
4th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
10.0% 10.2% 10.2% N/A
Nonfarm Employment Change
November
6th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-190K -173K -219K -263K

For October
Latest Release Provided by: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Unempl. Rate: 10.2%, pr. 9.8% (Sep), 9.7% (Aug), 9.4% (Jul),
9.5% (Jun), 9.4% (May), 8.9% (Apr), 8.5% (Mar), 8.1% (Feb),
7.6% (Jan), 7.2% (Dec), 6.8% (Nov), 6.5% (Oct), 6.1% (Sep)

The unemployment rate rose above 10% in October, jumping to a 26-year high of 10.2%. Payrolls fell by 190K in the month, compared with forecasts of around a 173K drop. The figure for September was revised upward to show 219K jobs lost compared to the originally reported 263K. The weak labor market underscores the need for the Fed to keep interest rates near zero. Though the economy returned to growth in the 3rd quarter, companies are still not hiring. Still the pace of job losses is easing as the economy was shedding as many as 740K in January. Payrolls at factories fell 61K, while the construction sector shed 62K jobs. The services sector meanwhile subtracted 61K following a loss of 105K in September. Still, the unemployment rate is a very grim number especially as it is very early in the recovery and it can be expected to climb higher in the next few  months. 

Unemployment Rate
November
6th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
10.2% 9.9% 9.8% N/A
Nonfarm Employment Change
October
2nd, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-263K -186K -201K -216K

For September
Latest Release Provided by: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Unempl. Rate: 9.8%, pr. 9.7% (Aug), 9.4% (Jul), 9.5% (Jun),
9.4% (May), 8.9% (Apr), 8.5% (Mar), 8.1% (Feb), 7.6% (Jan),
7.2% (Dec), 6.8% (Nov), 6.5% (Oct), 6.1% (Sep), 6.1% (Aug)

US nonfarm payrolls fell a more-than-expected 263,000 in September after falling a revised 201,000 in August, figures from the Labor Department showed. Payrolls continued to decline in most key sectors. The largest payroll losses were in construction (-64,000), manufacturing (-51,000), and retail trade (-39,000). Health care was the strongest sector (+19,000). The unemployment rate rose to 9.8% in September, as forecast and the highest level since 1983, from 9.7% in August. Average hourly earnings increased 0.1% m/m in September after an upwardly revised 0.4% m/m gain in August. Earnings rose 2.5% y/y. Average weekly hours declined to 33.0 from 33.1.

The US job market's deteriorated in September was a step backwards as the pace of layoffs was faster than in August. It shows that the recovery in the labor market will be slow, which could change the expectations for the strength of the US recovery. High unemployment will weigh on consumer sentiment and spending. With the unemployment rate now at its worst level in 26 years confidence will be shaky in the 4th quarter . The data increases the chances that a rate increase from the Federal Reserve will now be pushed further back which could pressure the greenback in the medium term.

Unemployment Rate
October
2nd, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
9.8% 9.8% 9.7% N/A
Nonfarm Employment Change
September
4th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-216K -223K -276K -247K

For August
Latest Release Provided by: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Unempl. Rate: 9.7%, pr. 9.4% (Jul), 9.5% (Jun), 9.4% (May),
8.9% (Apr), 8.5% (Mar), 8.1% (Feb), 7.6% (Jan), 7.2% (Dec),
6.8% (Nov), 6.5% (Oct), 6.1% (Sep), 6.1% (Aug), 5.7% (Jul)

Today's nonfarm payroll report was a mixed bag. The number of jobs lost in August eased to 216K, which was smaller than last month and slightly better than the consensus forecast, but July's figure was revised to show a bigger decline in jobs. That and the unemployment rate jumping to 9.7% caused some risk aversion in currency markets, which strengthened the greenback and Yen.

The unemployment rate now stands at a 26-year high, and overall the economy has shed jobs 20 straight months and there are now a total of 14.9 million Americans that are unemployed. Still, the economy which was shedding jobs at a 600K+ clip in the first quarter is now losing jobs at a pace around one-third of that. Higher unemployment will cause consumers to limit their spending, increase their savings, and pay off debt, which will impact how strong any recovery will be as consumer spending makes up about 70% of the economy. 

Unemployment Rate
September
4th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
9.7% 9.5% 9.4% N/A
Nonfarm Employment Change
August
7th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-247K -320K -443K -467K

For July
Previous Release Provided by: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Unempl. Rate: 9.4%, pr. 9.5% (Jun), 9.4% (May), 8.9% (Apr),
8.5% (Mar), 8.1% (Feb), 7.6% (Jan), 7.2% (Dec), 6.8% (Nov),
6.5% (Oct), 6.1% (Sep), 6.1% (Aug), 5.7% (Jul), 5.5% (Jun)

The nonfarm payroll report came in better than expected with the economy shedding 247K jobs in July, and the unemployment rate inched down to 9.4%. The news could be the turning point in the US labor market, which would be a very important factor in getting the US economy into recovery. Initial trading following the release saw a move towards greenback strength as the implication is that the US Fed may, if given further positive evidence, move to signal their intention to raise rates. The Fed meets next Wednesday, and will have many eager traders watching for the statement.

Unemployment Rate
August
7th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
9.4% 9.6% 9.5% N/A
Nonfarm Employment Change
July
2nd, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-467K -345K -322K -345K

For June
Latest Release Provided by: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Unempl. Rate: 9.5%, forecast 9.6%, pr. 9.4% (May), 8.9% (Apr),
8.5% (Mar), 8.1% (Feb), 7.6% (Jan), 7.2% (Dec), 6.8% (Nov),
6.5% (Oct), 6.1% (Sep), 6.1% (Aug), 5.7% (Jul), 5.5% (Jun)

June's nonfarm payroll release disappointed forecasts, with the economy shedding 467K jobs. That number undershot forecasts of a 345K decrease, and changes the outlook for the US labor market. Expectations had been for a slowdown in the pace of firings which could help improve the chances of a recovery. Though we are not near the levels of job losses seen in December through March, it does dampen expectations of an improvement in the labor market. The unemployment rate inched up to 9.5%, which was actually a better than expected result, and jobless claims fell for the week ending June 27th, two factors that countered the negative headline employment change figure. 

The dollar which had been gaining prior to the release, extended its gains in the 30 minutes following the release touch an intra-day high against the Euro at the 1.4015 level. The weak jobs report increased the sense of risk aversion which benefited the Yen in addition to the greenback. 

Unemployment Rate
July
2nd, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
9.5% 9.6% 9.4% N/A
Nonfarm Employment Change
June
5th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-345K -520K -504K -539K

For May
Latest Release Provided by: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Unempl. Rate: 9.4%. forecast 9.2%, pr. 8.9% (Apr), 8.5% (Mar), 8.1% (Feb),
7.6% (Jan), 7.2% (Dec), 6.8% (Nov), 6.5% (Oct), 6.1% (Sep), 6.1% (Aug),
5.7% (Jul), 5.5% (Jun),5.5% (May)

The US economy shed 345K jobs in May, a figure that came in much better than the expected 520K decline forecast by economists. Its the smallest amount of job losses in 8 months, though the unemployment rate did still move higher to 9.4%, a large jump from April. The smaller job loss figure is a welcome sign as it can imply that the recession in the US is easing and the strain on to the labor market is receding as well. Figures for April were revised to show a smaller amount of job losses as well. The jump in the unemployment rate, which is the now at its highest since 1982, has to do with more people joining the labor force. Though its just one month of data, its still heartening news. 

The correlation recently between better US news boosting risk appetite had been weakening the Dollar as it lost its safe haven appeal. Today however, the better supported the greenback as it implied that the US economy may be coming out of its recession sooner than the other major economies. In volatile trading, the greenback gained on its rivals following the release.

Unemployment Rate
June
5th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
9.4% 9.2% 8.9% N/A