About CMSForex ServicesTrading SoftwareForex EducationForex ResourcesMy Account
www.cmsfx.com
Free Online Forex Course www.cmsfx.com Forex Web Tools www.cmsfx.com

Unemployment Rate and Employment Change
Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of people that do not have jobs of all the people in the job force. Those people that are discouraged and "are not actively seeking work" are no longer counted. The participation rate tell you what percentage of the work-age population currently has a job.

Main Indicator: Unemployment Rate

Most Recent Release

July
16th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
5.2% 5.3% 5.3% N/A
For 3 months through May
ILO Unemployment Rate
Provided by: Office of National Statistics

Table of Past Data

10/1711/1412/121/162/133/194/165/146/117/16
Actual5.4%5.4%5.3%5.3%5.2%5.2%5.2%5.2%5.3%5.2%
Forecast5.4%5.4%5.4%5.3%5.3%5.2%5.2%5.2%5.2%5.3%
Previous5.4%5.4%5.4%5.3%5.3%5.2%5.2%5.2%5.2%5.3%
Revised FromN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A

www.cmsfx.com

Secondary Indicator: Claimant Count Change

Most Recent Release

July
16th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
15.5K 10.0K 14.3K 9.0K

For June
Provided by: Office of National Statistics

Claimant Count Unempl. Rate: 2.6%, forecast 2.6%, pr. 2.6% (Rev from 2.5%)

The claimant count, the number of workers asking for unemployment benefits, rose by 15K in June. This is the largest jump since 1992, harking back to the last recession. The economic slowdown in the UK has caused claims for unemployment benefits to increase 5 months in a row. Losses were mainly based in construction as the housing market in the UK contracts and in financial companies catering to weaker consumer demand for loans and mortgages. The Bank of England is unable to bring relief in the form of lower rates as the UK battles high inflation.

From the Release: "The trend in the employment rate is increasing, the trend in the unemployment rate is flat and the trend in the inactivity rate is falling. There has been another increase in the number of people claiming Jobseeker's Allowance benefit. The number of job vacancies has fallen. Growth in average earnings, both excluding and including bonuses, has fallen.

The claimant count was 840,100 in June 2008, up 15,500 over the previous month but down 23,100 over the year. The claimant count has increased over the month in all regions of the UK."

Table of Past Data

10/1711/1412/121/162/133/194/165/146/117/16
Actual-12.8K-9.9K-11.1K-6.4K-10.8K-2.8K-1.2K7.2K9.0K15.5K
Forecast-4.0K-6.0K-5.0K-5.0K-5.2K-5.0K-1.8K0.1K8.0K10.0K
Previous-8.5K-13.9K-9.9K-10.0K-8.7K-9.1K0.6K3.6K11.2K14.3K
Revised From-4.2K-12.8N/A-11.1K-6.4K-10.8K-2.8K-1.2K7.2K9.0K

www.cmsfx.com

Past Releases

Unemployment Rate
June
11th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
5.3% 5.2% 5.2% N/A

For 3 months through April
ILO Unemployment Rate
Provided by: Office of National Statistics

UK unemployment rate for the 3 months to April rose to 5.3%, the highest in seven months. Claims for jobless benefits increased for a 4th month, up 9,000 to 819,000. These results came despite the number of people in employment for the 3 month to April coming in at 29.55 million, the highest figure since comparable records began being kept in 1971. with more people looking for jobs, competitition will be tight while the labor market is getting looser. The economy is being hit by weaker domestic demand as high inflation eats into consumers purchasing power, and falling house prices ruin their confidence. Firms and households are also dealing with high interest rates, and the Bank of England is in a bind as it can not lower rates for fear there are upside risks to inflation right now, and their preference would be to actually raise rates.

Claimant Count Change
June
11th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
9.0K 8.0K 11.2K 7.2K

For May
Provided by: Office of National Statistics

Claimant Count Unempl. Rate: 2.5% forecast 2.5%, pr. 2.5%

UK's labor market situation is showing weakness as the total claimant count increased for the 4th straight month going up to 819,300. The previous month's figures were revised up significantly as well. Employers feel the pinch from the credit squeeze and has been thining their work force in anticipation of further slowdown in the economy. In the past 3 months initial claimant figures have been revised up and also show an accelerating pace of job cuts.

There is no question that the BoE will have to make moves to prevent a recession, but at the moment, inflation is at the forefront of discussion. By itself, rising prices will cut into consumer spending and sentiments. Businesses will feel the pinch and employment will be pressured. So everything is riding on prices to stabilize, at least that is what the Bank of England and many central banks are thinking.  

Unemployment Rate
May
14th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
5.2% 5.2% 5.2% N/A
For March
Provided by: Office of National Statistics
Claimant Count Change
May
14th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
7.2K 0.1K 3.6K -1.2K

For April
Provided by: Office of National Statistics

Claimant Count Unempl. Rate: 2.5%, forecast 2.5%, pr. 2.5%

The number of people claiming unemployment benefits rose by 7,200 in April. Revised data for March and February showed that unemployment rose during those months (11,400 in the last 3 months). It's the first time since June 2006 that the Claimant count was positive for three month, and implies that the UK labor market is starting to loosen. With high inflation the central bank may not be able to lower rates at the pace they wanted in order to counter sputtering growth.

Unemployment Rate
April
16th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
5.2% 5.2% 5.2% N/A
3 Months to Feb, as measured by the International Labor Organization
Official Release: Office of National Statistics
Claimant Count Change
April
16th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-1.2K -1.8K 0.6K -2.8K

For March
Provided by: Office of National Statistics

From the Release: "The claimant count was 794,300 in March 2008, down 1,200 over the previous month and down 110,600 over the year. This is the lowest figure since June 1975."

Unemployment Rate
March
19th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
5.2% 5.2% 5.2% N/A
3 Months to Jan, as measured by the International Labor Organization
Official Release: Office of National Statistics
Claimant Count Change
March
19th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-2.8K -5.0K -9.1K -10.8K

For February
Provided by: Office of National Statistics

Unemployment fell for a 17th straight month as the claimant count fell 2,800 from January to a total of 793,500. This is the lowest total since June 1975. Expectations though were for a larger fall of 5,000 for the month. The unemployment rate remained at 5.2%, and average earnings, including bonuses, inched down to 3.7%. Continued strong employment helps the UK economy as consumers have more spending money and better security. Since the economy is feeling pressures from housing and other areas affected by higher credit costs, it is important that consumers are there to counter-balance those negative factors. In any case, growth is expected to slow to a pace of just 1.6% this year. February's change in the claimant count was relatively small and may soon turn positive if the economy's slowdown translates into job losses.  

Unemployment Rate
February
13th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
5.2% 5.3% 5.3% N/A

3 Months to Dec, as measured by the International Labor Organization

Official Release: Office of National Statistics

"The unemployment rate was 5.2 per cent, down 0.2 over the previous quarter and down 0.3 over the year. The number of unemployed people decreased by 61,000 over the quarter and by 86,000 over the year, to reach 1.61 million.

The inactivity rate for people of working age was 21.0 per cent for the three months to December 2007, down 0.2 over the previous quarter but unchanged over the year."

The unemployment rate as measured by International Labor Organization standards fell to 5.2% in the quarter through December, the lowest since the three months ended January 2006. Employment rose 175,000 in the fourth quarter, the most in more than a decade, to a record 29.4 million, the statistics office said today.

Claimant Count Change
February
13th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-10.8K -5.2K -8.7K -6.4K

For January
Official Release from the Office of National Statistics

"There has been a further fall in the number of people claiming Jobseeker's Allowance benefit. The number of job vacancies has increased.

The claimant count was 794,600 in January 2008, down 10,800 over the previous month and down 128,500 over the year. This is the lowest figure since June 1975. The claimant count has now fallen for 16 consecutive months."

Unemployment Rate
January
16th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
5.3% 5.3% 5.3% N/A
3 Months to Nov.
Official Release from the Office of National Statistics

Employment remained steady at 5.3%, for the three months to November 2007.

Office of National Statistics:
"The employment rate for people of working age was 74.7 per cent for the three months to November 2007, up 0.3 from the previous quarter and up 0.1 over the year. The number of people in employment for the three months to November 2007 was 29.36 million. This is the highest figure since comparable records began in 1971 and is up 175,000 over the quarter and up 263,000 over the year. This is the largest quarterly increase in the number of people in employment since 1997. Total hours worked per week were 939.5 million, up 1.2 million over the quarter and up 11.8 million over the year.

The unemployment rate was 5.3 per cent, down 0.1 both over the previous quarter and over the year. The number of unemployed people decreased by 13,000 over the quarter and by 29,000 over the year, to reach 1.65 million."
Claimant Count Change
January
16th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-6.4K -5.0K -10.0K -11.1K
For December.
Official Release from the Office of National Statistics

"The claimant count was 807,700 in December 2007, down 6,400 over the previous month and down 131,400 over the year. This is the lowest figure since June 1975. The claimant count has now fallen for fifteen consecutive months."

The UK labor market continues to be strong in the face of other problems in the economy after the "credit crunch."
Unemployment Rate
December
12th, 2007
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
5.3% 5.4% 5.4% N/A
3 Months to Oct.
International Labour Organization Unemployment Rate.

The ILO unemployment rate notched down to 5.3% as the labor market in the UK continues to support expanded job growth. It was the lowest measure since the first quarter of 2006. In the Euro-zone ILO unemployment is 7.2%, its 4.7% in the US, and 4% in Japan.
Claimant Count Change
December
12th, 2007
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-11.1K -5.0K -9.9K N/A
For November.
Official Release by Office for National Statistics

Claimant Count Unemployment Rate: 2.5% (Nov), pr. 2.6% (Oct)

Claims for jobless benefits dropped 11,100, double what economists had predicted. Companies continue adding more workers as the 4th quarter is expected to be strong before a downturn in 2008. The Claimant Count Unemployment Rate stood at 2.5%, the lowest in 32 years.
Unemployment Rate
November
14th, 2007
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
5.4% 5.4% 5.4% N/A
3 months to Sept.
Office for National Statistics

The official measure of unemployment, formerly known as the Internationals Labor Organization (ILO) measure, stayed at 5.4% in the three months to the end of September. Levels rose 6,000 to total 1.67 million.
Claimant Count Change
November
14th, 2007
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-9.9K -6.0K -13.9K -12.8
For October.

Claimant Count Unemployment Rate: 2.6% (Oct), consensus 2.6%, pr. 2.6% (Sept)

The number of workers seeking unemployment in the UK dropped by 9,900 for a jobless rate of 2.6% in October. It’s the 13th straight month of declines.
Unemployment Rate
October
17th, 2007
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
5.4% 5.4% 5.4% N/A
For the 3 months to August

The total unemployment level is 1.65 million, and down 5,000 from the 3 months to May, although the rate (5.4%) remained unchanged.
Claimant Count Change
October
17th, 2007
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-12.8K -4.0K -8.5K -4.2K
For September

12,800 less claims for unemployment benefits makes September the 12th consecutive month of labor market tightening, says the ONs. The total claimant count is 835,800 after shedding 12,800 and reached a level not seen since March 2005. The rate stands unchanged from the previous month at 2.6%, but is 0.4% lower than a year ago.

www.cmsfx.com