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Indicator Digest

Unemployment Rate and Employment Change
Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of people that do not have jobs of all the people in the job force. Those people that are discouraged and "are not actively seeking work" are no longer counted. The participation rate tell you what percentage of the work-age population currently has a job.

Main Indicator: Unemployment Rate

Most Recent Release

February
17th, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
7.8% 7.8% 7.8% N/A

For 3 months through December
ILO Unemployment Rate
Provided by: Office of National Statistics

See "Claimant Count Change" for commentary. 

Next Release Date: March 17th 2010, 4:30 EST

Table of Past Data

5/126/177/158/129/1610/1411/1112/161/202/17
Actual7.1%7.2%7.6%7.8%7.9%7.9%7.8%7.9%7.8%7.8%
Forecast6.9%7.3%7.4% 7.7%8.0%8.0%8.0%7.9%8.0%7.8%
Previous6.7%7.1%7.2%7.6%7.8%7.9%7.9%7.8%7.9%7.8%
Revised FromN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A

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Secondary Indicator: Claimant Count Change

Most Recent Release

February
17th, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
23.5K -10.0K -19.6K -15.2K

For January
Provided by: Office of National Statistics

Claimant Un. Rate: 5.0%, forecast 5.0%, pr. 5.0% (Dec),
5.0% (Nov), 5.0% (Oct), 5.0% (Sep), 5.0% (Aug), 4.9% (Jul),
4.8% (Jun), 4.8% (May), 4.7% (Apr), 4.5% (Mar), 4.3% (Feb)

ILO Rate 3m/3m (Dec): 7.8%, forecast 7.8%, pr. 7.8% (Nov),
7.9% (Oct), 7.8% (Sep), 7.8% (Aug), 7.9% (Jul), 7.8% (Jun),
7.6% (May), 7.2% (Apr), 7.1% (Mar), 6.7% (Feb), 6.5% (Jan)

Next Release Date: March 17th 2010, 4:30 EST

Table of Past Data

5/126/177/158/129/1610/1411/1112/161/202/17
Actual57.1K39.3K23.8K24.9K24.4K20.8K12.9K-6.3K-15.2K23.5K
Forecast81.5K61.8K41.9K25.5K24.7K25.1K20.014.2K-3.3K-10.0K
Previous65.5K49.6K30.8K21.5K24.9K24.4K20.6K5.9K-10.8K-19.6K
Revised From73.7K57.1K39.3K23.8KN/AN/A20.8K12.9K-6.3K-15.2K

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Past Releases

Unemployment Rate
January
20th, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
7.8% 8.0% 7.9% N/A

For 3 months through November
ILO Unemployment Rate
Provided by: Office of National Statistics

See "Claimant Count Change" for commentary. 

Claimant Count Change
January
20th, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-15.2K -3.3K -10.8K -6.3K

For December
Provided by: Office of National Statistics

Claimant Un. Rate: 5.0%, pr. 5.0% (Nov), 5.0% (Oct), 5.0% (Sep),
5.0% (Aug), 4.9% (Jul), 4.8% (Jun), 4.8% (May), 4.7% (Apr),
4.5% (Mar), 4.3% (Feb), 3.8% (Jan), 3.6% (Dec), 3.3% (Nov)

ILO Rate 3m/3m (Nov): 7.8%, pr. 7.9% (Oct), 7.8% (Sep),
7.8% (Aug), 7.9% (Jul), 7.8% (Jun), 7.6% (May), 7.2% (Apr),
7.1% (Mar), 6.7% (Feb), 6.5% (Jan), 6.3% (Dec), 6.1% (Nov)

The UK's labor market got another shot in the arm as the number of claims for jobless benefits declined 15,000 to 1.61 million for December. That figure was better than expected and followed a better than originally reported 10,800 drop in jobless claims in November. The claimant count unemployment rate remained at 5%, while the ILO 3-month moving average of the unemployment rate for the month of November, the "official" unemployment rate notched down to 7.8% from 7.9%. The two strong months of data is a welcome sign that unemployment may have peaked, and that unemployment levels have not reached the levels originally predicted by government officials.

With the Pound strengthened by sentiment that the Bank of England is likely done expanding its quantitative easing asset purchase plan, and a pop in December's consumer inflation reading, this data should help support the Pound. Still, the UK has been very sluggish to climb out of its recession, as it was still posting negative growth in the 3rd quarter. That made six consecutive quarters of contraction which has destroyed more than a half a million jobs which the labor market needs to gain back. Also, the government's fiscal position is strained and the government will be forced to scale back spending on welfare programs.

In today's trading, the Pound fell to the greenback, as the greenback was bolstered by risk aversion, the Pound did continue to extend its gains vs the Euro.

Unemployment Rate
December
16th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
7.9% 7.9% 7.8% N/A

For 3 months through October
ILO Unemployment Rate
Provided by: Office of National Statistics

See "Claimant Count Change" for commentary. 

Claimant Count Change
December
16th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-6.3K 14.2K 5.9K 12.9K

For November
Provided by: Office of National Statistics

Claimant Un. Rate: 5.0%, pr. 5.0% R- (Oct), 5.0% (Sep), 5.0% (Aug),
4.9% (Jul), 4.8% (Jun), 4.8% (May), 4.7% (Apr), 4.5% (Mar),
4.3% (Feb), 3.8% (Jan), 3.6% (Dec), 3.3% (Nov)

ILO Rate 3m/3m (Oct): 7.9%, pr. 7.8% (Sep), 7.8%(Aug),
7.9% (Jul), 7.8% (Jun), 7.6% (May), 7.2% (Apr), 7.1% (Mar),
6.7% (Feb), 6.5% (Jan), 6.3% (Dec), 6.1% (Nov), 6.0% (Oct)

UK jobless claims fell by 6,300 in November to 1.63 million, a figure that surprised forecasts, which had called for an increase of 12,500. The Claimant Count unemployment rate  remained unchanged at 5%, while the ILO unemployment rate, which lags today's figures by one month and is therefore for the October period, inched up to 7.9%.

The increase in jobs, plus a downward revision to the October's data (a gain of 5,900 jobless clams compared to the originally reported 12,900), are a welcome sign to an economy trying to emerge from recession in the 4th quarter. It is the first time that unemployment decreased since February 2008, and helped to give the Pound strength in today's session.  The data, while a definite shot in the arm for the UK economy needs further confirmation to say that the tide has turned in terms of the country's labor market.

Unemployment Rate
November
11th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
7.8% 8.0% 7.9% N/A

For 3 months through September
ILO Unemployment Rate
Provided by: Office of National Statistics

See "Claimant Count Change" for commentary. 

Claimant Count Change
November
11th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
12.9K 20.0 20.6K 20.8K

For October
Provided by: Office of National Statistics

Claimant Un. Rate: 5.1%, forecast 5.1%, pr. 5.0% (Sep),
5.0% (Aug), 4.9% (Jul), 4.8% (Jun), 4.8% (May), 4.7% (Apr),
4.5% (Mar), 4.3% (Feb), 3.8% (Jan), 3.6% (Dec), 3.3% (Nov)

ILO Rate 3m/3m (Sep): 7.8%, forecast 8.0%, pr. 7.8% R+ (Aug),
7.9% (Jul), 7.8% (Jun), 7.6% (May), 7.2% (Apr), 7.1% (Mar),
6.7% (Feb), 6.5% (Jan), 6.3% (Dec), 6.1% (Nov), 6.0% (Oct)

The number of Britons claiming unemployment benefits rose by 12.9K in October, a figure that was below forecasts and lower than the 20.6K seen in September. The increase caused the claimant count unemployment rate to increase to 5.1% as forecast. It's the slowest rise in the claimant count in 18 months and is an encouraging sign that the steep increases seen earlier this year are coming to an end.

The ILO unemployment rate, the official measure of unemployment, which lags the claimant count by one month, rose 30K in the 3 months to the end of September to total 2.461 million. That was the slowest rise since March to May 2008 and resulted in the ILO unemployment rate remaining at 7.8%, following an downward revision to August's ILO figure. The September figure surprised forecasts which saw the rate rising to 8.0%.

Unemployment Rate
October
14th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
7.9% 8.0% 7.9% N/A

For 3 months through August
ILO Unemployment Rate
Provided by: Office of National Statistics

See "Claimant Count Change" for commentary. 

Claimant Count Change
October
14th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
20.8K 25.1K 24.4K N/A

For September
Provided by: Office of National Statistics

Claimant Un. Rate: 5.0%, pr. 5.0% (Aug), 4.9% (Jul), 4.8% (Jun),
4.8% (May), 4.7% (Apr), 4.5% (Mar), 4.3% (Feb), 3.8% (Jan),
3.6% (Dec), 3.3% (Nov), 3.0% (Oct), 2.9% (Sep), 2.8% (Aug)

ILO Un. Rate 3m/3m (Aug): 7.9%, pr. 7.9% (Jul), 7.8% (Jun),
7.6% (May), 7.2% (Apr), 7.1% (Mar), 6.7% (Feb), 6.5% (Jan),
6.3% (Dec), 6.1% (Nov), 6.0% (Oct), 5.8% (Sep)

The number of people seeking unemployment benefits rose by 20,800 in September, a figure that was smaller than the one in August, and smaller than the forecast figure. The claimant count unemployment rate remained at 5% during the period, while the ILO unemployment rate, a measure of the three months through August remained at 7.9%. In comparison, the US rate is 9.8%, the Euro-zone rate is 9.6%, and is 5.5% in Japan. Overall unemployment was 2.47 million in the quarter though August, while the total claimant count rose to 1.63 million in September, the highest since April 1997. That shows that unemployment remains a big concern for the economy and for the politics in the economy where Prime Minister Gordon Brown faces an election due by June 2010.

Unemployment Rate
September
16th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
7.9% 8.0% 7.8% N/A
For 3 months through July
ILO Unemployment Rate
Provided by: Office of National Statistics
Claimant Count Change
September
16th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
24.4K 24.7K 24.9K N/A

For August
Provided by: Office of National Statistics

Claimant Un. Rate: 5.0%, pr. 4.9% (Jul), 4.8% (Jun), 4.8% (May),
4.7% (Apr), 4.5% (Mar), 4.3% (Feb), 3.8% (Jan), 3.6% (Dec),
3.3% (Nov), 3.0% (Oct), 2.9% (Sep), 2.8% (Aug), 2.7% (Jul),
2.6% (Jun)

ILO Un. Rate 3m/3m (Jul): 7.9%, pr. 7.8% (Jul), 7.6% (May),
7.2% (Apr), 7.1% (Mar), 6.7% (Feb), 6.5% (Jan), 6.3% (Dec),
6.1% (Nov), 6.0% (Oct), 5.8% (Sep)

The UK saw 24.4K persons claiming unemployment benefits in August with the total number climbing to 1.61 million. The claimant count unemployment rate rose to 5% - the highest since 1997, while the ILO unemployment rate for the three month through July increased to 7.9%, the highest since 1996. Even as the UK economy comes out of recession unemployment will continue to climb higher or remain high, said Bank of England Governor Mervyn King. That will put pressure on consumer spending.  

Unemployment Rate
August
12th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
7.8% 7.7% 7.6% N/A

For 3 months through June
ILO Unemployment Rate
Provided by: Office of National Statistics

See "Claimant Count Change" for commentary. 

Claimant Count Change
August
12th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
24.9K 25.5K 21.5K 23.8K

For July
Provided by: Office of National Statistics

Claimant Un. Rate: 4.9%, pr. 4.8% (Jun), 4.8% (May), 4.7% (Apr),
4.5% (Mar), 4.3% (Feb), 3.8% (Jan), 3.6% (Dec), 3.3% (Nov),
3.0% (Oct), 2.9% (Sep), 2.8% (Aug), 2.7% (Jul), 2.6% (Jun)

ILO Un. Rate 3m/3m (Jun): 7.8%, pr. 7.6% (May), 7.2% (Apr),
7.1% (Mar), 6.7% (Feb), 6.5% (Jan), 6.3% (Dec), 6.1% (Nov),
6.0% (Oct), 5.8% (Sep)

The UK economy shed 24,900 jobs in July, and the number of people seeking work in the three months through June rose 220,000 to 2.44 million, the most since 1995. The unemployment rate for those 3 months climbed to 7.8%, the most since 1996. The labor market will continue to weigh on the UK economy, even as other measures like housing prices, services and manufacturing begin to show recovery.

Unemployment Rate
July
15th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
7.6% 7.4% 7.2% N/A

For 3 months through May
ILO Unemployment Rate
Provided by: Office of National Statistics

See "Claimant Count Change" for commentary. 

Claimant Count Change
July
15th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
23.8K 41.9K 30.8K 39.3K

For June
Provided by: Office of National Statistics

Claimant Un. Rate: 4.8%, pr. 4.8% (May), 4.7% (Apr), 4.5% (Mar),
4.3% (Feb), 3.8% (Jan), 3.6% (Dec), 3.3% (Nov), 3.0% (Oct),
2.9% (Sep), 2.8% (Aug), 2.7% (Jul), 2.6% (Jun), 2.6% (May)

ILO Un. Rate 3m/3m (May): 7.6%, pr. 7.2% (Apr), 7.1% (Mar),
6.7% (Feb), 6.5% (Jan), 6.3% (Dec), 6.1% (Nov), 6.0% (Oct),
5.8% (Sep)

The UK economy continued to shed jobs in June, but the 23.8K increase in workers laid off and now receiving unemployment benefits is the smallest increase in unemployed in nearly a year. That data can add to the sense that the worse of the recession is over, but that recovery will still be slow. The housing sector has been seeing some signs of recovery, and consumer have begun spending more. Unemployment however lags other indicators of economic activity and will continue to increase. The ILO unemployment rate for the three months through May rose to 7.6%, a modest jump from April's level. 

Unemployment Rate
June
17th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
7.2% 7.3% 7.1% N/A

For 3 months through April
ILO Unemployment Rate
Provided by: Office of National Statistics

See "Claimant Count Change" for commentary. 

Claimant Count Change
June
17th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
39.3K 61.8K 49.6K 57.1K

For May
Provided by: Office of National Statistics

Claimant Un. Rate (May): 4.8%, pr. 4.7% (Apr), 4.5% (Mar),
4.3% (Feb), 3.8% (Jan), 3.6% (Dec), 3.3% (Nov), 3.0% (Oct),
2.9% (Sep), 2.8% (Aug), 2.7% (Jul), 2.6% (Jun), 2.6% (May)

ILO Un. Rate 3m/3m (Apr): 7.2%, pr. 7.1% (Mar) 6.7% (Feb),
6.5% (Jan), 6.3% (Dec), 6.1% (Nov), 6.0% (Oct), 5.8% (Sep)

The number of workers filing claims for jobless benefits rose by 39.3K to 1.54 million in May. That was the smallest increase since July of last  year, and beat expectations that called for a 62K increase. The data could give an indication that the recession may be easing or at least has passed through its worst phase. 

Unemployment Rate
May
12th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
7.1% 6.9% 6.7% N/A

For 3 months through March
ILO Unemployment Rate
Provided by: Office of National Statistics

See "Claimant Count Change" for commentary. 

Claimant Count Change
May
12th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
57.1K 81.5K 65.5K 73.7K

For April
Provided by: Office of National Statistics

Claimant Un. Rate (Apr): 4.7%, forecast 4.7%, pr. 4.5% (Mar), 4.3% (Feb),
3.8% (Jan), 3.6% (Dec), 3.3% (Nov), 3.0% (Oct), 2.9% (Sep), 2.8% (Aug),
2.7% (Jul), 2.6% (Jun), 2.6% (May)

ILO Un. Rate 3m/3m (Mar): 7.1%, forecast 6.9%, pr. 6.7% (Feb),
6.5% (Jan), 6.3% (Dec), 6.1% (Nov), 6.0% (Oct), 5.8% (Sep)

The UK claimant count, the timeliest measure of employment in the economy, showed the number of people claiming jobless benefits rose by 57.1K in April, which was a smaller figure than forecast. Despite the better than expected headline number, the overall claimant count rose to 1.51 million, the highest level since August 1997. The unemployment rate, which lags the claimant count by one month and therefore is for March, rose to a higher than expected 7.1%, which will add pressure on Prime Minister Gordon Brown's efforts to tackle the recession. There have been some fundamental news pointing to a moderation in the UK economy's recession, but growing unemployment will complicate any recovery. Unemployment is usually a lagging indicator when it comes to signaling a turnaround in an economic cycle, so expectations are for unemployment to continue increasing, even as other measures of the economy's health may improve.