Indicator Digest - CMS Forex

Unemployment Rate and Employment Change

Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of people that do not have jobs of all the people in the job force. Those people that are discouraged and "are not actively seeking work" are no longer counted. The participation rate tell you what percentage of the work-age population currently has a job.

Main Indicator: Unemployment Rate

Most Recent Release

August
6th, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

3.9%

3.8%

3.7%

3.6%

For 2nd Quarter
Provided by: Statistics New Zealand
Official Release: PDF

Employment Change q/q: 1.2%, forecast 0.1%, pr. -1.3% (1Q), 0.9% (4Q)

See "Employment Change q/q" above for commentary.

Table of Past Data

	11/8	2/7	5/9	8/8	11/7	2/6	5/7	8/6

Actual	3.80%	3.70%	3.8%	3.6%	3.5%	3.4%	3.6%	3.9%
Forecast	3.70%	3.80%	3.8%	3.7%	3.6%	3.6%	3.5%	3.8%
Previous	3.60%	3.80%	3.7%	3.8%	3.6%	3.5%	3.4%	3.7%
Revised From	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	3.6%

Past Releases

May
7th, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

3.6%

3.5%

3.4%

N/A

For 1st Quarter
Provided by: Statistics New Zealand
Official Release: Official Release (.pdf)

Employment Change q/q: -1.3%, forecast =0.1%, pr 0.9% (rev from 1.1)

The New Zealand Dollar weakened after the unemployment rate and employment change came in lower than forecast.

Highlights from the Release:

"In the March 2008 quarter:

Seasonally adjusted employment decreased by 29,000 to 2,141,000.

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased to 3.6 percent.

The seasonally adjusted labour force participation rate decreased to 67.7 percent.

Seasonally adjusted total actual hours worked per week decreased 1.9 percent. "

February
6th, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

3.4%

3.6%

3.5%

N/A

For 4th Quarter
Provided by: Statistics New Zealand
Official Release (.pdf)

"The December 2007 quarter Household Labour Force Survey (HLFS) recorded a decrease in the
unemployment rate of 0.1 percentage points, to 3.4 percent. This is the lowest unemployment rate
recorded since the survey began.

The number of unemployed people decreased over the quarter while the total labour force increased, resulting in a drop in the unemployment rate. Over the quarter the number of people employed and the number of people in the labour force increased to the highest levels ever recorded by the survey. The growth in the labour force was entirely driven by females. The labour force participation rate of 68.8 percent recorded in the December 2007 quarter is the highest rate recorded in the history of the Household Labour Force Survey.

In summary, the December 2007 quarter has seen record-high employment levels, number of people in
the labour force and labour force participation, as well as recording the lowest unemployment rate since
the survey began in March 1986."

November
7th, 2007

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

3.5%

3.6%

N/A

3rd Q.
The September Quarters unemployment rate was the lowest since the measurement method was adopted in 1986. The abundant employment is keeping inflationary pressures down.

August
8th, 2007

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

3.6%

3.7%

3.8%

N/A

Also in the employment report for June quarter, Statistics New Zealand posted an increase of 0.8% in hourly earnings to $22.81 NZD. Earnings growth was driven by growth in property and business services, construction, and health and community services industries. Also an increase of employment level this quarter of 1.5% was driven by increases in the education and construction industries.

May
9th, 2007

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

3.8%

3.7%

N/A

According to Statistics New Zealand, this decrease in employment was due to the "seasonal influence of the education industry."

February
7th, 2007

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

3.70%

3.80%

N/A

November
8th, 2006

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

3.80%

3.70%

3.60%

N/A