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Indicator Digest

Unemployment Rate and Employment Change
Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of people that do not have jobs of all the people in the job force. Those people that are discouraged and "are not actively seeking work" are no longer counted. The participation rate tell you what percentage of the work-age population currently has a job.

Main Indicator: Unemployment Rate

Most Recent Release

July
2nd, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
9.5% 9.3% 9.2% N/A

For May (s.a.)
Provided by EuroStat
Official Release: PDF

Table of Past Data

10/110/3111/281/81/302/274/14/306/27/2
Actual7.5%7.5%7.7%7.8%8.0%8.2%8.5%8.9%9.2%9.5%
Forecast7.3%7.5%7.6%7.8%7.9%8.1%8.3%8.7%9.1%9.3%
Previous7.4%7.5%7.6%7.7%7.9%8.1%8.3%8.7%8.9%9.2%
Revised FromN/AN/A7.5%N/A7.8%8.0%8.2%8.5%N/AN/A

Secondary Indicator: Employment Change q/q

Most Recent Release

June
15th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-0.8% -0.4% -0.3%

For 1st Quarter
Provided by: EuroStat
Official Release: PDF

Employment Change y/y: -1.2%, pr. 0.0% (4Q), 0.8% (3Q), 1.3% (2Q),
1.6% (1Q) 

Table of Past Data

3/176/139/1212/163/166/15
Actual0.2%0.3%0.2%-0.1%-0.3%-0.8%
Forecast
Previous0.3%0.3%0.3%0.2%-0.1%-0.4%
Revised FromN/A0.2%N/AN/AN/A-0.3%

Past Releases

Unemployment Rate
June
2nd, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
9.2% 9.1% 8.9% N/A

For April (s.a.)
Provided by EuroStat
Official Release: PDF

The unemployment rate in the nations that make up the Euro-zone rose to 9.2% in April, a bigger jump than expected, and the highest rate in almost 10 years. The global recession has sapped demand for the region's exports which has cut into industrial production and investment. That has caused a large increase in layoffs. Despite some signs that the Euro-zone economy's recession may be easing, the deterioration in the labor market will hamper any recovery, making it a prolonged and slow recovery when growth starts once again.

Unemployment Rate
April
30th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
8.9% 8.7% 8.7% 8.5%

For March (s.a.)
Provided by EuroStat
Official Release: PDF

Europe's unemployment rate in March, at 8.9%, rose to its highest level in more than three years. Growing unemployment has major implications on growth and inflation outlooks, so its a worrisome sign to the ECB which has been criticized for its slower gradual response to its recession. As economic growth continues to sputter along, more firms are firing workers in order to cut costs. The jobless rate in Germany has increased for 6 straight months. The ECB next meets on May 7th, and traders will be looking for an interest rate cut as well as a recognition by the bank that they will have to use new unconventional methods like quantitative easing in order to stimulate the economy during this crisis. 

Unemployment Rate
April
1st, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
8.5% 8.3% 8.3% 8.2%

For February (s.a.)
Provided by EuroStat
Official Release: PDF

Unemployment in the Euro-zone jumped to 8.5% in February, higher than expectations, and underscores the effects of the recession on jobs. The new rate is the highest in 3 years. Firms in the region have been shedding staff as they reduce output by record levels in order to cope with the current recession. Increasing joblessness has many effects of course on the economy, mainly a reduction in consumer spending and confidence. 

From the Release: " The euro area1 (EA16) seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate2 was 8.5% in February 2009, compared with 8.3% in January3. It was 7.2% in February 2008.

Eurostat estimates that 19.156 million men and women in the EU27, of which 13.486 million were in the euro area, were unemployed in February 2009. Compared with January, the number of persons unemployed increased by 478 000 in the EU27 and by 319 000 in the euro area. Compared with February 2008, unemployment went up by 3.019 million in the EU27 and by 2.125 million in the euro area."

Employment Change q/q
March
16th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-0.3% -0.1% N/A

For 4th Quarter
Provided by: EuroStat
Official Release: PDF

Employment Change y/y: 0.0%, pr. 0.8% (3Q), 1.3% (2Q), 1.6% (1Q) 

Unemployment Rate
February
27th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
8.2% 8.1% 8.1% 8.0%

For January (s.a.)
Provided by EuroStat
Official Release: PDF

From the Release: "The euro area (EA16) seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate was 8.2% in January 2009, compared with 8.1% in December 2008. It was 7.3% in January 2008."

Unemployment Rate
January
30th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
8.0% 7.9% 7.9% 7.8%

For December (s.a.)
Provided by EuroStat
Official Release: PDF

Unemployment notched up in December to 8%, the 5th month it has increased. It is now at the highest level in 2 years. The data along with weaker consumer prices may put pressure on the ECB, which meets next week, but ECB President Trichet said the bank was going to hold this month and likely cut again in March. If today's data speeds up that timetable remains to be seen.  

Unemployment Rate
January
8th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
7.8% 7.8% 7.7% N/A

For November (s.a.)
Provided by EuroStat
Official Release: PDF

From the Release: "The euro area (EA15) seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate was 7.8% in November 2008, compared with 7.7% in October. It was 7.2% in November 2007."

Unemployment increased in November in the Euro-zone as the economy shrank in the third quarter, and continued to sputter in the 4th quarter. The 7.8% seasonally adjusted rate was the highest in nearly two years. After gradually falling to a record low of 7.2% in March, unemployment began creeping higher last April as a result of the credit crisis. The economic situation continued to deteriorate throughout the year, and the crisis intensified in the 3rd quarter. Increased joblessness will limit spending by households and further the cycle of worsening economic conditions. Today, consumer confidence and sentiment among business hit a record low.

Employment Change q/q
December
16th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-0.1% 0.2% N/A

For 3rd Quarter
Provided by: EuroStat
Official Release: PDF

Employment Change y/y: 0.8%, pr. 1.3% (rev. from 1.2%, 2Q), 1.6% (1Q) 

Employment fell by 0.1% in the three months through September reported EuroStat. This is the first drop since the 1st quarter of 2004. Annual employment eased to 0.8% from 1.3%. The third quarter showed the Euro-zone officially in recession and that translated into job losses. The recession deepened during the 4th quarter so this number should fall again next time around. 

Unemployment Rate
November
28th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
7.7% 7.6% 7.6% 7.5%

For October (s.a.)
Provided by EuroStat
Official Release: PDF

The unemployment rate in the Euro-zone jumped to 7.7% in October, the highest level its been since January 2007. The data follows other reports showing economic confidence down to a 15-year low and retail sales figures the weakest in at least 5 years. The Euro-zone economy is suffering in the face of weaker exports, consumer spending and confidence, and tight access to credit. The weak economic activity is filtering down to the labor market. The ECB is expected to continue lowering interest rates in order to ease borrowing costs and to spur economic growth. Their next meeting is December 4th. 

Unemployment Rate
October
31st, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
7.5% 7.5% 7.5% N/A

For September (s.a.)
Provided by EuroStat
Official Release: PDF

From the Release: "The euro area (EA15) seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate stood at 7.5% in September 2008, stable compared with August. It was 7.3% in September 2007." 

Unemployment Rate
October
1st, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
7.5% 7.3% 7.4% N/A

For August (s.a.)
Provided by EuroStat
Official Release: PDF

The unemployment rate in the Euro-zone rose unexpectedly to 7.5% in August, and July's rate was revised up to 7.4%. The figure is the highest since April 2007. With the economy contracting in the 2nd quarter, companies are cutting costs by reducing payroll. The credit crisis will only exacerbate job losses going forward. Sales are faltering as consumer confidence is mired in low levels and they cut back on spending. The ECB may have to take a harder look at the economic hardship of the continent and move to a more dovish stance and think about lowering interest rates.

From the Release: "The euro area (EA15) seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate stood at 7.5% in August 2008, compared with 7.4% in July. It was 7.4% in August 2007. The EU27 unemployment rate was 6.9% in August 2008, unchanged compared with July. It was 7.1% in August 2007.

Eurostat estimates that 16.572 million men and women in the EU27, of which 11.596 million were in the euro area, were unemployed in August 2008. Compared with July 2008, the number of persons unemployed increased by 67 000 in the EU27 and by 90 000 in the euro area. Compared with August 2007, unemployment fell by 225 000 in the EU27 but rose by 272 000 in the euro area."

Employment Change q/q
September
12th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.2% 0.3% N/A

For 2nd Quarter
Provided by: EuroStat
Official Release: PDF

Employment Change y/y: 1.2%, pr. 1.6% (1Q) 

From the Release: "The number of persons employed in the euro area (EA15) rose by 0.2% (283 000 persons) in the second quarter of 2008 compared with the previous quarter. Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, employment grew by 1.2% in the euro area in the EU27 in the second quarter of 2008, after +1.6% in the first quarter of 2008." 

Euro-zone payrolls grew by 0.2% in the 2nd quarter compared to the 1st quarter. On the year employment change cooled to 1.2% from the 1.6% seen in the previous report. That is the slowest pace since the 4th quarter of 2005. A slowing labor market will only add extra strain on consumers faced with higher costs.
Employment Change q/q
June
13th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.3% 0.3% 0.2%

For 1st Quarter
Provided by: EuroStat
Official Release: PDF

The number of people employed in the euro-area rose 0.3% in the first quarter, which amounts to 446K jobs. This figure matched the 4th quarter, where employment was revised up to show a 0.3% increase from the original 0.2%. From a year earlier, employment growth slowed to 1.6% from 1.8%. Employment took a hit in Italy which saw a -0.2% change for the quarter. Germany saw a 0.5% increase, the same as teh 4th quarter.

Employment Change q/q
March
17th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.2% 0.3% N/A

For 4th Quarter
Official Release: EuroStat (.PDF)

"The seasonally adjusted number of persons employed in the euro area1 (EA13) rose by 0.2% (270 000 persons) during the fourth quarter of 2007, according to provisional national accounts estimates published by Eurostat, the Statistical Office of the European Communities.

Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, employment grew by 1.7% in the euro area. Over the whole year 2007, employment increased by 1.7% (2 446 000 persons)."