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Indicator Digest

Unemployment Rate and Employment Change
Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of people that do not have jobs of all the people in the job force. Those people that are discouraged and "are not actively seeking work" are no longer counted. The participation rate tell you what percentage of the work-age population currently has a job.

Main Indicator: Employment Change

Most Recent Release

June
5th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-41.8K -34.8K 35.9K N/A

For May
Latest Official Release: Statistics Canada

Unemp. Rate: 8.4%, forecast 8.2%, pr. 8.0% (Apr), 8.0% (Mar), 7.7% (Feb),
7.2% (Jan), 6.6% (Dec), 6.3% (Nov), 6.2% (Oct), 6.1% (Sep), 6.1% (Aug),
6.1% (Jul), 6.2% (Jun)

From the Release: "Following gains in April, employment decreased by 42,000 in May, led by further manufacturing losses in Ontario. The unemployment rate rose by 0.4 percentage points to 8.4%, the highest rate in 11 years. Since the employment peak of last October, employment has fallen by 363,000 or 2.1%. 

In addition to manufacturing losses in May, transportation and warehousing also declined. Public administration was the only industry with a notable employment increase. Employment declines in May affected mostly men and women aged 25 to 54, while there were employment increases among women aged 55 and over.

There were large declines in full-time employment (-59,000) in May, bringing total full-time losses since October to 406,000 (-2.9%). Over the same period, part-time employment has continued to trend up, increasing by 44,000 (+1.4%)."

Next Release Date: July 10th 2009, 7:00 EST

Table of Past Data

9/510/1011/712/51/92/63/134/95/86/5
Actual15.2K106.9K9.5K-70.6K-34.4K-129K-82.6K-61.3K35.9K-41.8K
Forecast9.0K12.5K-10.0K-21.0K-21.0K-40.0K-50.0K-54.3K-49.7K-34.8K
Previous-55.2K15.2K106.9K9.5K-70.6K-20.4K-129.0K-82.6K-61.3K35.9K
Revised FromN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A-34.4KN/AN/AN/AN/A

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Secondary Indicator: Unemployment Rate

Most Recent Release

June
5th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
8.4% 8.3% 8.0% N/A
Next Release Date: July 10th 2009, 7:00 EST

Table of Past Data

9/510/1011/712/51/92/63/134/95/86/5
Actual6.1%6.1%6.2%6.3%6.6%7.2%7.7%8.0%8.0%8.4%
Forecast6.2%6.2%6.2%6.4%6.5%6.8%7.4%8.0%8.3%8.3%
Previous6.1%6.1%6.1%6.2%6.3%6.6%7.2%7.7%8.0%8.0%
Revised FromN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A

Past Releases

Employment Change
May
8th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
35.9K -49.7K -61.3K N/A

For April
Latest Official Release: Statistics Canada

Unemp. Rate: 8.0%, forecast 8.3%, pr. 8.0% (Mar), 7.7% (Feb), 7.2% (Jan),
6.6% (Dec), 6.3% (Nov), 6.2% (Oct), 6.1% (Sep), 6.1% (Aug), 6.1% (Jul),
6.2% (Jun)

For the Release: "Employment grew by 36,000 in April, the result of an increase in self-employment. Despite this increase, overall employment has fallen by 321,000 since the peak in October 2008. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 8.0% in April, remaining at its highest level in seven years, with the growth in employment coinciding with an increase in the labour force. The employment gains in April occurred in information, culture and recreation; business, building and other support services; "other services"; and agriculture. Employment was unchanged in manufacturing and construction."

Unemployment Rate
May
8th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
8.0% 8.3% 8.0% N/A
Employment Change
April
9th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-61.3K -54.3K -82.6K N/A

For March
Latest Official Release: Statistics Canada

Unemp. Rate: 8.0%, forecast 8.0%, pr. 7.7% (Feb), 7.2% (Jan), 6.6% (Dec),
6.3% (Nov), 6.2% (Oct), 6.1% (Sep), 6.1% (Aug), 6.1% (Jul), 6.2% (Jun)

From the Release: "Employment declined by 61,000 in March, all in full-time work. This decrease pushed the unemployment rate up 0.3 percentage points to 8.0%, the highest rate in seven years.

Since peaking in October 2008, employment has fallen each month, with net losses totalling 357,000 (-2.1%). In percentage terms, this is the largest decline over a five-month period since the 1982 recession. Since October, full-time employment has declined by 2.8% (-387,000) while part-time has edged up 0.9% (+30,000).

Losses in March were widespread across a number of industries, most notably in manufacturing; finance, insurance, real estate and leasing; construction; and natural resources. These losses were only partially offset by gains in "other services"; and business, building and other support services."

Unemployment Rate
April
9th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
8.0% 8.0% 7.7% N/A
Employment Change
March
13th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-82.6K -50.0K -129.0K N/A

For February
Latest Official Release: Statistics Canada

Unemp. Rate: 7.7%, forecast 7.4%, pr. 7.2% (Jan), 6.6% (Dec), 6.3% (Nov),
6.2% (Oct), 6.1% (Sep), 6.1% (Aug), 6.1% (Jul), 6.2% (Jun)

From the Release: "Employment fell for the fourth consecutive month in February (-83,000), bringing total losses since the peak of last October to 295,000 (-1.7%). The February employment decrease pushed the unemployment rate up 0.5 percentage points to 7.7%.

All of the employment losses in February were in full-time (-111,000), while part-time employment edged up slightly. This continues the downward trend in full-time employment observed since October. Part-time employment has shown only a marginal increase over the same period."

Unemployment Rate
March
13th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
7.7% 7.4% 7.2% N/A
Employment Change
February
6th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-129K -40.0K -20.4K -34.4K

For January
Latest Official Release: Statistics Canada

Unemp. Rate: 7.2%, forecast 6.8%, pr. 6.6% (Dec), 6.3% (Nov),
6.2% (Oct), 6.1% (Sep), 6.1% (Aug), 6.1% (Jul), 6.2% (Jun)

Canada's unemployment shot up in January, coming in way below expectations. The economy shed 129K jobs when forecasts called for a 40K decrease and the unemployment rose 0.6% to 7.2%. The data was very grim, the third month in a row that firms cut payroll, and puts the unemployment rate at the highest level since November 2004.

The Canadian Dollar was pressured in the aftermath of the release, sliding 130 pips against the greenback in the first 30 minutes following the release. 

From the Release: "Employment fell by 129,000 in January (-0.8%), almost all in full time, pushing the unemployment rate up 0.6 percentage points to 7.2%. This drop in employment exceeds any monthly decline during the previous economic downturns of the 1980s and 1990s.

The loss in January follows other declines in recent months. Since October, employment has fallen by 213,000 (-1.2%), the result of full-time losses.

In January, the drop in employment was most pronounced in manufacturing, where the net loss totalled 101,000. There were declines in a number of other industries as well. The only industry with notable gains was health care and social assistance, where employment increased by 31,000."

 

Unemployment Rate
February
6th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
7.2% 6.8% 6.6% N/A
Employment Change
January
9th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-34.4K -21.0K -70.6K N/A

For December
Latest Official Release: Statistics Canada

Unemp. Rate: 6.6%, forecast 6.5%, pr. 6.3% (Nov), 6.2% (Oct), 6.1% (Sep),
6.1% (Aug), 6.1% (Jul), 6.2% (Jun)

From the Release: "Employment declined for the second consecutive month in December (-34,000), the result of a large drop in full-time work. With the decline in employment came a 0.3 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate, which hit 6.6% in December. Employment growth from December 2007 to December 2008 was 0.6% (+98,000), much slower than the increase of 2.2% (+358,000) observed over the same period in the previous year. From the record low of 5.8% in early 2008, the unemployment rate had climbed 0.8 percentage points by the end of the year, with most of the increase occurring in the last quarter.

In December, full-time employment losses (-71,000) were partially offset by gains in part-time employment (+36,000). In 2008, all of the employment increases were in part-time work. December's employment decline was largely driven by a drop in construction, one of the largest monthly losses for that industry in over three decades. This was partially offset by an increase in transportation and warehousing."

Unemployment Rate
January
9th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
6.6% 6.5% 6.3% N/A
Employment Change
December
5th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-70.6K -21.0K 9.5K N/A

For November
Latest Official Release: Statistics Canada

Unemp. Rate: 6.3%, forecast 6.4%, pr. 6.2% (Oct), 6.1% (Sep),
6.1% (Aug), 6.1% (Jul), 6.2% (Jun)

The Canadian economy shed 70,600 jobs in November, almost three times the number of lost jobs predicted by economists. Losses were split pretty evenly between full and part time work though Ontario's manufacturing sector led the overall decline. The unemployment rate inched up to 6.3%. Also, the public sector shed 38,300 jobs, of which two-thirds were associated with the end of October's federal election. The private sector lost 36,200 jobs. Still, for the year, the economy has created 133,000 new jobs in the 11 months through November and today's data shows how the intensification of the credit crisis has cut into the growth prospects of the Canadian economy. 

The Canadian Dollar was weaker prior to and in the immediate aftermath of the release, falling more than 100 pips to the greenback. That was before the US monthly jobs number came out. 

Unemployment Rate
December
5th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
6.3% 6.4% 6.2% N/A
Employment Change
November
7th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
9.5K -10.0K 106.9K N/A

For October
Latest Official Release: Statistics Canada

Unemp. Rate: 6.2%, forecast 6.2%, pr. 6.1% (Sep), 6.1% (Aug), 6.1% (Jul),
6.2% (Jun)

The employment situation is not as dire as it is in the US. After large gains last in September, the Canadian economy in October was expected to shed jobs. Instead there was a slight increase driven by full-time work, which offset losses in part time. Also, the unemployment rate edged up due to an increase in the number of job seekers to the labor force. Yearly wage growth is at a healthy 4.3%, as it is above the current 3.4% annual rate of increase in the consumer price index.

Unemployment Rate
November
7th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
6.2% 6.2% 6.1% N/A
See "Employment Change" for commentary.
Employment Change
October
10th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
106.9K 12.5K 15.2K N/A

For September
Latest Official Release: Statistics Canada

Unemp. Rate: 6.1%, forecast 6.2%, pr. 6.1%% (Aug), 6.1% (Jul),
6.2% (Jun)

From the Release: "Following a decline in July and a small gain in August, employment increased by 107,000 in September. Almost all of this increase was in part-time work (+97,000). Despite the gain, the unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.1%, as the increase in employment was matched by a similar rise in labour force participation.

There were widespread gains by industry in September. The largest increase in employment came from health care and social assistance, followed by business, building and other support services, and manufacturing. Employment also increased in transportation and warehousing, agriculture and construction.

The number of private sector employees rose by 56,000 in September, with smaller gains in the self-employed (+30,000) and the public sector (+21,000). So far in 2008, employment has grown mainly among private sector employees."

Despite the much better than expected jobs report the Canadian Dollar continued to plunge against the US Dollar. Today saw the USD/CAD pair rise from 1.1500 to 1.1830. Oil prices were down $5 to $81.60 a barrel as of 10 AM, which continues to pressure the Loonie.

Unemployment Rate
October
10th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
6.1% 6.2% 6.1% N/A
See "Employment Change" for commentary.
Employment Change
September
5th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
15.2K 9.0K -55.2K N/A

For August
Latest Official Release: Statistics Canada

Unemployment Rate: 6.1%, forecast 6.2%, pr. 6.1%, 6.2%, 6.1%

The Canadian economy added 15,200 jobs in August, a rebound from last month sharp decline of 55K. The unemployment rate stayed at 6.1%, when expectations had it rising. The construction sector led the increase in employment followed by schools, hotels, restaurants and factories. The new hires tended to be full time and positions in the private sector. The data gives the Bank of Canada more time to sit on the sidelines. There doesn't seem to be a need to shore up economic growth by lowering rates, and wage inflation was contained, limiting the need for a rate increase. The Loonie firmed after the release, and extended its gains after the US payroll report.

From the Release: "Following a decline in July, employment edged up by 15,000 in August. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.1%. Since the start of the year, employment has increased by 87,000 (+0.5%), a much smaller increase compared to the 221,000 (+1.3%) of the first eight months of 2007.

There was a slight increase in manufacturing employment in August. So far this year, this industry has declined by 14,000 (-0.7%), a smaller decrease compared with the same period in 2007 (-76,000 or -3.6%).

August's employment gains were mostly among private sector employees (+41,000), while there were fewer employees in the public sector (-24,000). Since the beginning of 2008, employment growth has been primarily among employees in the private sector, in contrast to strength in the public sector and in self-employment over the same period of 2007."

Unemployment Rate
September
5th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
6.1% 6.2% 6.1% N/A
See "Employment Change" for commentary.