For May
Latest Release Provided by: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Unempl. Rate: 9.4%. forecast 9.2%, pr. 8.9% (Apr), 8.5% (Mar), 8.1% (Feb),
7.6% (Jan), 7.2% (Dec), 6.8% (Nov), 6.5% (Oct), 6.1% (Sep), 6.1% (Aug),
5.7% (Jul), 5.5% (Jun),5.5% (May)

The US economy shed 345K jobs in May, a figure that came in much better than the expected 520K decline forecast by economists. Its the smallest amount of job losses in 8 months, though the unemployment rate did still move higher to 9.4%, a large jump from April. The smaller job loss figure is a welcome sign as it can imply that the recession in the US is easing and the strain on to the labor market is receding as well. Figures for April were revised to show a smaller amount of job losses as well. The jump in the unemployment rate, which is the now at its highest since 1982, has to do with more people joining the labor force. Though its just one month of data, its still heartening news. 

The correlation recently between better US news boosting risk appetite had been weakening the Dollar as it lost its safe haven appeal. Today however, the better supported the greenback as it implied that the US economy may be coming out of its recession sooner than the other major economies. In volatile trading, the greenback gained on its rivals following the release.

For April
Latest Release Provided by: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Unempl. Rate: 8.9%, forecast 8.9%, pr. 8.5% (Mar), 8.1% (Feb), 7.6% (Jan),
7.2% (Dec), 6.8% (Nov), 6.5% (Oct), 6.1% (Sep), 6.1% (Aug), 5.7% (Jul),
5.5% (Jun),5.5% (May)

The non-farm payroll report showed the US economy shedding 539K jobs in April, a figure that beat economists' expectations and shows the pace of job destruction in the US easing. Still, the unemployment rate jumped to 8.9%, matching forecasts. The decline in jobs was the smallest in six months, though a good deal of the improvement came as part of temporary hiring by the government. The private sector continued to see sharp losses. Goods producing industries laid of 270,000 workers, with manufacturing accounting for 149,000 of those cuts. Services lost 269,000, while the government added 72,000 jobs. 

The initial reaction to the release was to bolster the feeling that the US recession is moderating, and that helped to push up risk appetite, which weakened the greenback.

For March
Latest Release Provided by: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Unempl. Rate: 8.5%, forecast 8.5%, pr. 8.1% (Feb), 7.6% (Jan),
7.2% (Dec), 6.8% (Nov), 6.5% (Oct), 6.1% (Sep), 6.1% (Aug), 5.7% (Jul),
5.5% (Jun),5.5% (May)

The non-farm payroll report showed the economy shedding 663K jobs in the month of March with the unemployment rate rising to 8.5% the highest in 25 years. Those figures came mainly in line with expectations, and had a limited impact on the markets in the immediate aftermath. Some economists thought the data would be worse, and one indication of that is a revision to January's data that showed a steeper loss of 741,000, which is the third-biggest drop on record.

Even though some US indicators have improved of late, like a stabilization in consumer spending and rising home sales, the sheer amount of jobs that have been lost in the past 5 months is staggering. And it's hard for these workers to find new jobs, as companies are staying lean during these weak economic times. Higher unemployment will cut into consumer spending which will leave the economy weak. Many of the jobs that have been laid off have been retail and manufacturing. Jobs data can lag the start of a recover, but the pace of firings needs to slow down by the middle of the year or consumers, which have started spending again, could pullback once more.

See "Nonfarm Employment Change" above for commentary.

For February
Latest Release Provided by: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Unempl. Rate: 8.1%, forecast 7.9%, pr. 7.6% (Jan), 7.2% (Dec), 6.8% (Nov),
6.5% (Oct), 6.1% (Sep), 6.1% (Aug), 5.7% (Jul), 5.5% (Jun), 5.5% (May)

The US nonfarm payroll report for February showed the economy shedding 651K jobs, a number that came mostly in line with expectations, though Janaury's figure was revised down to show a 655K loss. The unemployment rate however rose to 8.1%, a figure higher than forecast. The number of jobs lost was the most since October 1949, when half a million steelworkers went on strike for higher pay, though last month's revised total was actually higher. The unemployment rate is now at its highest in over 25 years. The deepening recession is absolutely decimating the labor market, which has lost over 2 million jobs in the last 4 months. Still some may have expected a worse reading for February.

EUR/USD - Euro Climbs to 1.2750 Overnight:  The Euro-Dollar pair entered the global session around the 1.2540 area, rose overnight to 1.27, and then jumped to 1.2750 following the nonfarm-payroll release. The 220 pip climb was enough, and the pair fell back below 1.27 by NY afternoon trading. Today's high broke above resistance for this week, but a late greenback rally pushed the pair back below where it started this week

See "Nonfarm Employment Change" above for commentary.

For January
Latest Release Provided by: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Unempl. Rate: 7.6%, forecast 7.5%, pr. 7.2% (Dec), 6.8% (Nov), 6.5% (Oct),
6.1% (Sep), 6.1% (Aug), 5.7% (Jul), 5.5% (Jun), 5.5% (May)

US nonfarm payrolls showed another steep drop in January. The economy shed 598K jobs during the month and the unemployment rate rose to 7.6%. The news underscores the perilous condition the US labor market is in and the severity of the current recession. With the Fed's interest rate already at near zero, it will be up to the government to jump start the economy. An $800-$900 billion plan is working its way through Congress right now, and its passage will be an important indicator watched by financial markets. Today's news pressured the Dollar with the EUR/USD pair climbing to 1.2880 which tested the highs from yesterday. Here is a breakdown of the different sectors and how they fared from the release. 

From the Release: "Total nonfarm payroll employment fell sharply (-598,000) in January. Since the recession began in December 2007, 3.6 million jobs have been lost, with about half of the decrease occurring in the last 3 months. In January, employment declined in nearly all major industries, while health care and private education added jobs. (See table B-1.)

Manufacturing employment fell by 207,000 in January, the largest 1-month decline since October 1982. In January, durable goods manufacturing lost 157,000 jobs, with notable decreases in fabricated metal products (-37,000), motor vehicles and parts (-31,000), and machinery (-22,000). Employment in nondurable goods manufacturing declined by 50,000 over the month.

Construction lost 111,000 jobs in January. Employment in the industry has fallen by about 1.0 million since peaking in January 2007. Employment fell across most component industries over the month.

The temporary help industry lost 76,000 jobs in January. Since its recent peak in December 2006, temporary help employment has declined by 695,000. Professional and technical services lost 29,000 jobs in January.

Retail trade employment fell by 45,000 in January and by 592,000 since a peak in November 2007."

See "Nonfarm Employment Change" above for commentary.

For December
Latest Release Provided by: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Unempl. Rate: 7.2%, forecast 7.0%, pr. 6.8% (Nov), 6.5% (Oct),
6.1% (Sep), 6.1% (Aug), 5.7% (Jul), 5.5% (Jun), 5.5% (May)

The US economy shed 525K jobs in December, which came mainly in line with expectations. Though its not a great release by any stretch of the imagination, especially with the unemployment rate jumping to 7.2%, and November's figure revised to a show a fall of 584K, the fact that it mainly met expectations and we didn't have any big surprises on the downside was overall a positive for the US Dollar. 

The unemployment rate is the worst in 16 years, and the economy lost 2.6 million jobs in 2008 the most since World War II ended in 1945. Nearly two-thirds of those losses came in the last 4 months as the credit crisis and implosion of the financial system worked its way through the financial sector and then into Main street. With manufacturing jobs and consturction falling through the year, the US economy will have to depend on a stimulus plan by the incoming President to shore up the jobs data.

The Fed has already lowered its interest rate to near zero last month, so officials will now rely on quantitative easing through the Fed's balance sheet to pump money into the financial system, and there will be more calls to widen their efforts. 

See "Nonfarm Employment Change" above for commentary.

For November
Latest Release Provided by: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Unempl. Rate: 6.7%, forecast 6.8%, pr. 6.5% (Oct), 6.1% (Sep), 6.1% (Aug),
5.7% (Jul), 5.5% (Jun), 5.5% (May)

The US economy shed 533,000 jobs in November, a number that was much worse than anticipated. October's number was revised down by 80K as well. Most of the losses came from the services sector (-370K), reflecting losses in the financial sector. Still jobs were slashed in manufacturing (-163K) and construction (-82K). The report signifies that the US recession is intensifying and may be a severe one compared to the recession seen in early 1990 and 2001. The unemployment rate increased to 6.7%, though that was lower than forecasts.

The report will put pressure on the Fed when it meets on December 16th. Rates are already at 1%, and expectations will be for another 50 basis point cut, though the Fed may deem it necessary to cut rates even further in order to stimulate lending. That means the US may be on its way to a zero interest rate. The Fed may take other measures as well, including direct purchases by the Fed of longer-dated Treasury and agency securities, would would effectively monetize a portion of the US debt. Calls for that type of action and a massive fiscal stimulus package early next year will be needed to get the economy back on track. 

See "Nonfarm Employment Change" above for commentary.

For October
Latest Release Provided by: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Unempl. Rate: 6.5%, forecast 6.2%, pr. 6.1% (Sep), 6.1% (Aug), 5.7% (Jul),
5.5% (Jun), 5.5% (May), 5.0% (Jun)

The US economy shed another 240,000 jobs in October, undershooting economists' forecasts, and bringing the unemployment rate up to 6.5% from September's 6.1%. That unemployment rate was a 14-year high. Even worse, the figure for September was revised sharply down, going from a decline of 159,000 to 284,000. The two months together equal almost half a million and is the biggest two-month slide since 2001. The data showed factory payrolls down 90,000, services losing 108,000, and construction shedding 49,000 jobs. Government payrolls increased by 23,000 after a loss of 41,000 last month. The data will increase the likelihood that President-Elect Obama will put together some kind of fiscal stimulus package as one of his first economic moves.

See "Nonfarm Employment Change" above for commentary.

For September
Latest Release Provided by: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Unempl. Rate: 6.1%, forecast 6.1%, pr. 6.1% (Aug), 5.7% (Jul), 5.5% (Jun),
5.5% (May), 5.0% (Jun)

The US jobs report was worse than anticipated with the economy showing it shed 159K jobs in September. It was the biggest drop in 5 and half years. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.1%. The data, along with the turbulence on Wall Street, points to the Fed lowering rates in its coming meeting if not sooner than that. The decline in jobs last month was broad-based, including manufacturing, construction and services. The manufacturing sectors lost 51K, construction was down by 35K, and the services sector saw 82K lost. The Bureau of Labor Statistics dismissed the effects of Hurricanes Ike. Gains were seen in health care and education to offset some of the losses in the previously mentioned sectors.

The conventional wisdom only a month or so ago was that the Fed was done cutting rates at its current level of 2% and would raise rates in order to combat inflation. However with the economy swinging back into recessionary levels, as was evident by a dismal manufacturing report earlier in the week, housing has not found a bottom, and today's job report, not to mention the fallout from the most recent wave of the credit crisis, it is apparent that interest rates may have to be lowered further to stimulate growth.

For September
Latest Release Provided by: Bureau of Labor Statistics

See "Nonfarm Employment Change" above for commentary.