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Unemployment Rate and Employment Change
Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of people that do not have jobs of all the people in the job force. Those people that are discouraged and "are not actively seeking work" are no longer counted. The participation rate tell you what percentage of the work-age population currently has a job.

Main Indicator: Nonfarm Employment Change

Most Recent Release

October
3rd, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-159K -100K -73K -84K

For September
Latest Release Provided by: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Unempl. Rate: 6.1%, forecast 6.1%, pr. 6.1% (Aug), 5.7% (Jul), 5.5% (Jun),
5.5% (May), 5.0% (Jun)

The US jobs report was worse than anticipated with the economy showing it shed 159K jobs in September. It was the biggest drop in 5 and half years. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.1%. The data, along with the turbulence on Wall Street, points to the Fed lowering rates in its coming meeting if not sooner than that. The decline in jobs last month was broad-based, including manufacturing, construction and services. The manufacturing sectors lost 51K, construction was down by 35K, and the services sector saw 82K lost. The Bureau of Labor Statistics dismissed the effects of Hurricanes Ike. Gains were seen in health care and education to offset some of the losses in the previously mentioned sectors.

The conventional wisdom only a month or so ago was that the Fed was done cutting rates at its current level of 2% and would raise rates in order to combat inflation. However with the economy swinging back into recessionary levels, as was evident by a dismal manufacturing report earlier in the week, housing has not found a bottom, and today's job report, not to mention the fallout from the most recent wave of the credit crisis, it is apparent that interest rates may have to be lowered further to stimulate growth.

Next Release Date: November 07th 2008, 8:30 EST

Table of Past Data

1/42/13/74/45/26/67/38/19/510/3
Actual18K-17K-63K-80K-20K-49K-62K-51K-84K-159K
Forecast70K65K25K-50K-80K-52K-60K-65K-73K-100K
Previous115K82K-22K-76K-81K-20K-62K-51K-60K-73K
Revised From94K18K-17K-63K-80KN/A-49K-62K-51K-84K

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Secondary Indicator: Unemployment Rate

Most Recent Release

October
3rd, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
6.1% 6.1% 6.1% N/A

For September
Latest Release Provided by: Bureau of Labor Statistics

See "Nonfarm Employment Change" above for commentary.

Next Release Date: November 07th 2008, 8:30 EST

Table of Past Data

1/42/13/74/45/26/67/38/19/510/3
Actual5.0%4.9%4.8%5.1%5.0%5.5%5.5%5.7%6.1%6.1%
Forecast4.8%5.0%5.0%5.0%5.2%5.1%5.4%5.6%5.7%6.1%
Previous4.7%5.0%4.9%4.8%5.1%5.0%5.5%5.5%5.7%6.1%
Revised FromN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A

Past Releases

Nonfarm Employment Change
September
5th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-84K -73K -60K -51K

For August
Latest Release Provided by: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Unempl. Rate: 6.1%, forecast 5.7%, pr. 5.7% (Jul), 5.5% (Jun),
5.5% (May), 5.0% (Jun)

Payrolls fell 84K in August, compared with expectations of a 73K decline. July's figure was revised down to show the economy shedding 60K jobs. The unemployment rate jumped to 6.1%, which is the highest since September 2003. The poorer-than-expected result indicates the economy is slowing down, but has been somewhat anticiapted in comments by Federal Reserve officials. They have said to expect further job losses and a sputtering out of economic momentum. Therefore, the gloomy report may not cause as big a stir.

Unemployment Rate
September
5th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
6.1% 5.7% 5.7% N/A
Nonfarm Employment Change
August
1st, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-51K -65K -51K -62K

For July
Latest Release Provided by: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Unempl. Rate: 5.7%, forecast 5.6%, pr. 5.5%, 5.5 (May), 5.0% (Jun)

The US economy shed 51K jobs in July, the seventh straight month of job losses. The number was better than forecast and gave the Dollar a knee-jerk reaction boosting the greenback against its rivals in the minutes following the release. The unemployment rate increased to 5.7% from 5.5%, surprising forecasts on the upside. June's payroll figure was revised to show a 51K jobs lost compared to the originally stated 62K. So far this year there have been 463,000 jobs shed from payrolls.

This month, companies such as UAL Corp and Starbucks fired more workers, showing how the economic slowdown is spreading beyond construction, manufacturing and financial companies. With housing prices still falling, energy prices rising and a slackening labor market, consumer spending should remain subdued. 

Unemployment Rate
August
1st, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
5.7% 5.6% 5.5% N/A
See "Nonfarm Employmnet Change" above for commentary.
Nonfarm Employment Change
July
3rd, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-62K -60K -62K -49K

For June
Latest Release Provided by: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Unempl. Rate: 5.5%, forecast 5.4%, pr. 5.5 (May), 5.0% (Jun), 5.1% (Mar)

The US economy shed 62K jobs, close to the forecast, and May's data was revised moderately done to also show a loss of 62K jobs. Job losses in the private sector have been rather steady over the first half of the year and means that production and personal income/consumption growth will weaken. The breadth of job losses was rather widespread including manufacturing, construction, finance and business services.

Still, the losses remain modest and steady, and therefore may not alter fundamentally what the Fed is doing except to reinforce the perception that it will not be changing rates soon. With its low interest rates, it hopes to jumpstart the economy, and tackle inflation concerns later. 

Unemployment Rate
July
3rd, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
5.5% 5.4% 5.5% N/A
For June
Provided by: Bureau of Labor Statistics

The unemployment rate remained at 5.5%, when some had expected a decrease to 5.4%. The job market seems poised to remain weak, crimping consumer spending and keeping the Fed from raising rates, despite higher inflation. Nonfarm payroll data showed the economy shedding 62K jobs, the 6th straight month of job losses.
Nonfarm Employment Change
June
6th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-49K -52K -20K N/A
For May
Latest Release Provided by: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Unemployment Rate: 5.5% pr. 5.0%, 5.1% (Mar), 4.8% (Feb)

The Non-Farm Payroll employment change was more or less expected. This is the 5th month in a row that the economy has shed jobs. The unemployment rate increased 0.5% to 5.5% partly due to an additional 577,000 persons to the civilian labor force nudging up the participation rate to 66.2%.

From the Release: In May, employment continued to fall in construction, manufacturing, retail trade, and temporary help services, while health care continued to add jobs. Average hourly earnings rose by 5 cents, or 0.3 percent, over the month.

The Dollar was pressured following the release against its main rivals as another month of job losses dampens expectations of an interest rate increase in the near term, which was a slight possibility as inflation remains a problem and Fed Chairman Bernanke signaled that the Fed was concerned with the value of the Dollar. Today's data, especially the large jump in the unemployment rate may lower expectations that the economy was rebounding more smoothly than first anticipated.

Unemployment Rate
June
6th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
5.5% 5.1% 5.0% N/A
For May
Provided by: Bureau of Labor Statistics

see "Nonfarm Employment Change"
Nonfarm Employment Change
May
2nd, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-20K -80K -81K -80K

For April
Provided by: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Unemployment Rate: 5.0%, pr. 5.1% (Mar), pr. 4.8% (Feb)

April payrolls did better than expected, falling only 20K compared to expectations of an 80K drop. The unemployment rate improved as well to 5%. Manufacturing payrolls declined by 46K, while service producing jobs increased by 90K. The news bolsters the case that the Fed is ready to pause in its interest rate cutting campaign. It seems despite all the talk over a recession, growth was still positive in the 1st quarter and job losses are coming at a slower pace than anticipated. Therefore it seems that the recession seems to be concentrated much more in the housing and financial sectors, while the spillover into the broader economy has not completely tanked other sectors.

The Dollar felt an immediate boost vs its rivals jumping around 1 cent vs the Euro, extending its eralier gains against the Yen and paring earlier losses to the Pound and Canadian Dollar.

Unemployment Rate
May
2nd, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
5.0% 5.2% 5.1% N/A
For April
Provided by: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Nonfarm Employment Change
April
4th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-80K -50K -76K -63K

For March
Provided by: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Unemployment Rate: 5.1%, forecast 5.0%, pr. 4.8%

March was the 3rd consecutive month of job losses for the US, which was coupled with an increase in the unemployment rate to 5.1%. A deteriorating labor market will affect consumers, as they will be less inclined to go spending and their confidence falls. Forecasts had been for a 50K fall.

From the Release: "The unemployment rate rose from 4.8 to 5.1 percent in March, and nonfarm payroll employment continued to trend down (-80,000), the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Over the past 3 months, payroll employment has declined by 232,000. In March, employment continued to fall in construction, manufacturing, and employment services, while health care, food services, and mining added jobs. Average hourly earnings rose by 5 cents, or 0.3 percent, over the month."

EUR/USD Reaches Near 1.5775 After Data, Then Comes Down: Initially, the Dollar extended its losses against the Euro and turned lower against the Japanese Yen immediately after the data. That move was trimmed down, but the higher than expected result should pressure the Dollar the rest of the day.
EUR/USD - Nonfarm Payroll

USD/CHF Falls as Carry Trade Unwinds Following Release: The Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen both straightened in the hour and a half following the release, as volatility shot up in the markets.

USD/CHF - Nonfarm Payroll

 

Unemployment Rate
April
4th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
5.1% 5.0% 4.8% N/A

For March
Provided by: Bureau of Labor Statistics

"The number of unemployed persons increased by 434,000 to 7.8 million in March, and the unemployment rate rose by 0.3 percentage point to 5.1 per- cent.  Since March 2007, the number of unemployed persons has increased by 1.1 million, and the unemployment rate has risen by 0.7 percentage point."

Nonfarm Employment Change
March
7th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-63K 25K -22K -17K

For February
Provided by: Bureau of Labor Statistics

"Nonfarm payroll employment edged down in February (-63,000), and the unemployment rate was essentially unchanged at 4.8 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Employment fell in manufacturing (-52K), construction (-39K), and retail trade (-34K). Job growth continued in health care (+36K) and in food services. Average hourly earnings rose by 5 cents, or 0.3 percent, over the month."

The US labor market showed a second straight month of job losses, undershooting expectations, and furthering the theme that the US is teetering on a recession. The report solidifies in investors minds that the Fed is most likely to act with another aggressive rate cut to shore up economic growth when they meet next. The Dollar did recover after its high, and had a strong move downward, The US Dollar was pressured by the news, with the EUR/USD reaching a new all time high above 1.5460 following the release. The EUR/USD did then move in the Dollar's favor, falling more than 100 pips from the fresh high.

Unemployment Rate
March
7th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
4.8% 5.0% 4.9% N/A

For February
Provided by: Bureau of Labor Statistics

"The number of unemployed persons (7.4 million) and the unemployment rate (4.8 percent) were essentially unchanged in February. Both the civilian labor force, at 153.4 million, and the labor force participation rate, at 65.9 percent, declined in February. Total employment (146.0 million) and the employment-population ratio (62.7 percent) were little changed over the month." 

Nonfarm Employment Change
February
1st, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-17K 65K 82K 18K

For January
Provided by the Department of Labor - Titled "Employmnet Situation Summary"

The US labor market showed a serious sign of slowdown as the economy shedded jobs for the first time in more than four years. Payrolls fell by 17,000, strongly undershooting economists expectations. On a positive note, December's data was revised up 64,000. The data points to contraction as lower employment will affect consumer spending. The Fed has lowered interest rates by 1.25% in the last two weeks, but this report makes it likeley that the Fed will continue to bring interest rates down. 

Unemployment Rate
February
1st, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
4.9% 5.0% 5.0% N/A
For January.
Provided by the Department of Labor - Titled "Employmnet Situation Summary"
Nonfarm Employment Change
January
4th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
18K 70K 115K 94K
For December.
Summary from Department of Labor

Job growth in several service providing industries, was largely offset by job losses in construction and manufacturing. The unemployment rate increased to 5%, while wages were up .4% or 7 cents. The number compounds the news from yesterday's ADP report, and points to a slowdown in the labor market in the US. This will adversely affect the economy, as less jobs means less spending money for workers, who are already facing higher food and energy costs, and lower housing prices.
Unemployment Rate
January
4th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
5.0% 4.8% 4.7% N/A
For December.
Summary from Department of Labor

The unemployment rate jumped to a two year high as the figure reached 5%. It was the biggest gain for the unemployment rate in a single month since April 1995, and shows that the housing recession woes and credit market problems are hitting other sectors of the economy.

Service industries, added 93,000 workers, compared to an increase of 160,000 in November. Jobs in the retail sector declined by 24,300 after increasing 32,000 in November. Factories shed 31,000 jobs, while builders cut 49,000. Finally, there was an increase of 31,000 government jobs.

The financial sector is shedding jobs related to subprime lending after that markets collapse in July and August, joining the construction and manufacturer that are seeing less business as a result of fewer home sales.

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