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Main Indicator: Personal Income
Most Recent Release
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | ||
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For November
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Table of Past Data
| 3/28 | 5/1 | 5/30 | 6/27 | 8/4 | 8/29 | 9/29 | 10/31 | 11/26 | 12/24 | ||
| Actual | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 1.9% | 0.1% | -0.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.3% | -0.2% | |
| Forecast | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.3% | -0.2% | -0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| Previous | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 1.8% | 0.1% | -0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| Revised From | N/A | N/A | 0.3% | 0.2% | 1.9% | N/A | -0.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
Secondary Indicator: Personal Spending
Most Recent Release
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.6% | -0.8% | -1.0% | N/A | ||
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For November
US consumer spending fell 0.6% in November, which was a smaller than expected decline. It was the 5th straight month that spending was negative. Personal income dropped 0.2%. Personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income was up 2.8% in Nov, up from 2.4% in Oct. The saving rate is increasing the past few months as the economy deteriorates and more people put away money for a rainy day, which for many people is a pink slip. Jobless claims climbed to 586K for last week, the highest that number has been in 26 years. In addition to a rise in savings today's report showed inflation retreating. The price gauge tied to spending patterns increased 1.4% on an annual basis, the smallest gain in six years. The average price of unleaded regular gasoline at the pump fell by $1 to $2.11 in November from the prior month, leading the drop in overall prices. |
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Table of Past Data
| 3/28 | 5/1 | 5/30 | 6/27 | 8/4 | 8/29 | 9/29 | 10/31 | 11/26 | 12/24 | ||
| Actual | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | -0.3% | -1.0% | -0.6% | |
| Forecast | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | -0.2% | -0.7% | -0.8% | |
| Previous | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | -0.3% | -1.0% | |
| Revised From | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
Past Releases
Personal Income
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | ||
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For October
Personal incomes grew 0.3% in October, after a downwardly revised 0.1% increase in September. However personal spending fell 1% in October, the steepest fall in consumer spending in seven years. That put personal savings as a percentage of disposable personal income was 2.4%, up from 1.0% in September. Consumer and households are worried about the economic outlook. October saw the acceleration of stock market losses and the intensification of the global financial crisis. In that environment, and with job losses mounting and housing prices continuing to suffer as well, consumer scaled back purchases in a large way. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -1.0% | -0.7% | -0.3% | N/A | ||
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For October
Personal spending fell 1% in October, the steepest fall in consumer spending in seven years. It follows months where spending had declined 0.3% (Sep), 0.1% (Aug) and 0.1% (Jul). October saw the acceleration of stock market losses and the intensification of the global financial crisis. In that environment, and with job losses mounting and housing prices continuing to suffer as well, consumer scaled back purchases in a large way. Incomes increased 0.3%, which means there was some saving going on. Personal savings as a percentage of disposable personal income was 2.4%, up from 1.0% in September. Prices meanwhile, measure by the PCE price index, fell 0.6% on the month. The core PCE price index, which excludes food an energy, was unchanged in October, after rising 0.2% in September. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | ||
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For September
Incomes grew 0.2% in September, a slower pace compared to the downwardly revised 0.4% seen in August. As job losses keep adding up, other workers are seeing smaller gains in their wages. Spending was down 0.3% the weakest result in 4 years. The data underscores the situation facing consumers who are cutting back spending in the face of higher prices and weaker income growth. Also, credit conditions are extremely tight and housing price declines are pressuring spending habits.
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.3% | -0.2% | 0.0% | N/A | ||
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For September
US consumer spending was down 0.3% in September, which reinforces yesterday's GDP data which showed consumer scaling back their purchases during this time of economic uncertainty. September's result was the weakest in 4 years and caps the weakest quarter in spending in three decades. Consumers are facing increased unemployment, high food and fuel costs, and falling housing prices which has crimped spending. In addition, a collapse in lending and sentiment as a result of the financial turmoil may spell further cut backs in spending going forward.
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.5% | 0.2% | -0.6% | -0.7% | ||
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For August
Personal income came in surprising estimates on the upside by growing 0.5%, but the disposible income shrank 0.9%. Spending continued to be anemic as well. This shows that consumers have pessimistic outlooks and are not cautious about spending despite what they think are temporary increases in personal income. The bailout plan will only make consumers feel more burdened as the American taxpayershave spent about $1.0 trillion this year on bailouts such as the auto industry, Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac, and other banks and institutions. From the release: Personal income increased $61.5 billion, or 0.5 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) decreased $93.3 billion, or 0.9 percent, in August, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $3.9 billion, or less than 0.1 percent. In July, personal income decreased $69.0 billion, or 0.6 percent, DPI decreased $91.0 billion, or 0.8 percent, and PCE increased $14.2 billion, or 0.1 percent, based on revised estimates. The pattern of changes in income primarily reflects the pattern of payments associated with the Economic Stimulus Act of 2008 |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | N/A | ||
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For August
Provided by: Commerce Department Official Release: News Release Personal income came in surprising estimates on the upside by growing 0.5%, but the disposible income shrank 0.9%. Spending continued to be anemic as well. This shows that consumers have pessimistic outlooks and are not cautious about spending despite what they think are temporary increases in personal income. The bailout plan will only make consumers feel more burdened as the American taxpayershave spent about $1.0 trillion this year on bailouts such as the auto industry, Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac, and other banks and institutions. From the release: Personal income increased $61.5 billion, or 0.5 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) decreased $93.3 billion, or 0.9 percent, in August, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $3.9 billion, or less than 0.1 percent. In July, personal income decreased $69.0 billion, or 0.6 percent, DPI decreased $91.0 billion, or 0.8 percent, and PCE increased $14.2 billion, or 0.1 percent, based on revised estimates. The pattern of changes in income primarily reflects the pattern of payments associated with the Economic Stimulus Act of 2008 |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.7% | -0.2% | 0.1% | N/A | ||
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For July
Personal incomes fell 0.7%, relfecting the end of the boost from the government's tax rebate plan. Disposable incomes wre down 1.1%. Spending cooled to a rise of 0.2% from June's 0.6%.
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.6% | N/A | ||
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For July
Consumer spending, which makes up about 70% of real GDP, slowed in July. Spending was up 0.2% after increasing 0.6% in June, and matched the consensus forecast. July marks the first month of the 3rd quarter, and shows that the boost June's number from the government's rebate checks has waned. Incomes for July dropped 0.7%, the first decrease since August 2005, reflecting the end of the rebates. The index's measure of prices - the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) deflator - hit its highest annual level in 17 years. Consumers purchased less big-ticket items such as durable goods like furniture and cars, as they face higher prices for food and fuel. Spending on durable goods was down 1.5% in July, after a drop of 1.3% in June. It should be noted that US durable goods orders for July surprised on the upside, which means companies were responsible, and not consumers.
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.1% | -0.2% | 1.8% | 1.9% | ||
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For June
Personal incomes were up 0.1%, a much smaller climb than May's 1.8%. May's numbers were fueled by tax rebates, while that affect was not as acute in June. Still, forecasts called for a 0.2% decline in incomes. Tax rebates from the government's stimulus package will give only temporary results as Americans face $4-a-gallon gasoline, tumbling home prices and mounting job losses. Spending was up 0.6%, cooler that the 0.8% pace in May, with price increases amounting for most of the difference. If adjusted for inflation, spending in June would have actually declined 0.2%. Rising prices present a worrying scenario for the FOMC, which meets this week, but will most likely hold rates as growth remains weak.
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.8% | N/A | ||
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For June
See "Personal Income" above for commentary. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 1.9% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | ||
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For May
Spending by US consumers rose more than forecast in May, climbing 0.8%. They were boosted by an increase to income as a result of tax rebates sent out by the government to help jumpstart a sputtering economy. Incomes grew by their largest margin in 3 years, 1.9%.
With the temporary relief, or boost to income, US consumers bought gas which has recently shot up in price, and then electronics, clothing and furniture. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | ||
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For May
Spending by US consumers rose more than forecast in May, climbing 0.8%. They were boosted by an increase to income as a result of tax rebates sent out by the government to help jumpstart a sputtering economy. Incomes grew by their largest margin in 3 years, 1.9%.
With the temporary relief, or boost to income, US consumers bought gas which has recently shot up in price, and then electronics, clothing and furniture. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | ||
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For April
Provided by: Commerce Department
Personal Spending
Personal Income
Private wage and salary disbursements decreased $18.2 billion in April, in contrast to an increase of $26.9 billion in March. Private wages and salaries had been boosted by $15.0 billion at an annual rate in January, in February, and in March to reflect large bonus payments. These types of irregular payments are not accounted for in the primary monthly source data for wages and salaries. This adjustment for one-time bonuses has not been carried forward in the estimates of wage and salary disbursements for April and subsequent months. Goods-producing industries' payrolls decreased $11.4 billion, in contrast to an increase of $4.5 billion; manufacturing payrolls decreased $5.1 billion, in contrast to an increase of $2.5 billion. Services-producing industries' payrolls decreased $6.8 billion, in contrast to an increase of $22.4 billion. Government wage and salary disbursements increased $3.7 billion, compared with an increase of $3.4 billion. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | N/A | ||
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For April
Provided by: Commerce Department
Personal Spending
Personal Income
Private wage and salary disbursements decreased $18.2 billion in April, in contrast to an increase of $26.9 billion in March. Private wages and salaries had been boosted by $15.0 billion at an annual rate in January, in February, and in March to reflect large bonus payments. These types of irregular payments are not accounted for in the primary monthly source data for wages and salaries. This adjustment for one-time bonuses has not been carried forward in the estimates of wage and salary disbursements for April and subsequent months. Goods-producing industries' payrolls decreased $11.4 billion, in contrast to an increase of $4.5 billion; manufacturing payrolls decreased $5.1 billion, in contrast to an increase of $2.5 billion. Services-producing industries' payrolls decreased $6.8 billion, in contrast to an increase of $22.4 billion. Government wage and salary disbursements increased $3.7 billion, compared with an increase of $3.4 billion. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | N/A | ||
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For March
Personal incomes increased 0.3% in March, lower than anticipated, and less than the 0.5% seen in February. With spending in March at 0.5%, it means the difference between the two amounts to -0.2%. From the Release:
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | N/A | ||
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For March
Personal spending heated up in March, rising 0.4% compared to 0.1% in February. The figure doubled the consensus estimate, and was a positive sign for the economy as consumer spending makes up roughly 70% of GDP. The Dollar strengthened following the release, and hit a new intra-day low vs the the Euro. However, adjusted for inflation, spending was up 0.1%. Incomes were up 0.3%, as was expected. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.5% | N/A | ||
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For February.
Personal Incomes increased 0.5% in February, beating expectations of a slowdown to 0.3%. Though incomes rose, spending was subdead at 0.1%. The savings rate improved to 0.3% from -0.1% in January. A negative rate suggests consumers are drawing down savings to maintain spending. Wages and salaries rose just 0.3% after a 0.5% gain in January. Wages aren't keeping up with inflation. If wages are adjusted for prices, hourly earnings for the 12 months through February fell 0.8%. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.4% | N/A | ||
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For February
Consumer Spending slowed to 0.1%, hitting the consensus forecast. Its the slowest pace in more than a year, and points to consumers tightening their belts just as the economy is facing what more and more experts are calling a recession. Consumers make up two-thirds of GDP so a cut back in spending will surely put the system in recession. With slower economic growth, inflation should recede, or at least is the current logic in the Fed's thinking as it slashes interest rates. Producers are facing higher inflation costs to make their products as import and materials cost more. In this environment they may be unable to pass any of those price changes on to the consumer, either cutting into profits or causing slower supply. Personal Incomes were up 0.5% and Core "Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE)" Price Index rose 0.1% last month. |
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