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Personal Income and Spending
Personal Income is the dollar value of income received from all source by individuals. Personal Spending, also known as outlays, measures all purchases of durable or nondurable goods, and services.

Main Indicator: Household Spending y/y

Most Recent Release

September
29th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-4.0% -1.3% -0.5% N/A

For August (in real terms)
Provided by: Statistics Bureau
Latest Release: Summary

Japanese household spending was down a sharp 4.0% in August compared to a year ago, surprising expectations on the downside. It was the 4th straight month that spending was down. The weak domestic demand will do little to help the Japanese economy come out of its recession. Unemployment is rising, industrial production is negative, and exports are weakening due to slowing foreign demand. Its an unfortunate cocktail which will undoubtedly mean a negative 3rd quarter of GDP growth.

Table of Past Data

12/271/282/283/274/295/296/267/288/289/29
Actual-0.6%2.2%3.6%0.0%-1.6%-2.7%-3.2%-1.8%-0.5%-4.0%
Forecast0.4%-0.2%0.4%2.5%0.4%-0.7%-2.0%-2.8%-1.8%-1.3%
Previous0.6%-0.6%2.2%3.6%0.0%-1.6%-2.7%-3.2%-1.8%-0.5%
Revised FromN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A

Past Releases

August
28th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-0.5% -1.8% -1.8% N/A

For July (in real terms)
Provided by: Statistics Bureau
Latest Release: Summary

Household spending surprised forecasts on the upside, declining only 0.5% on the year in July. Forecasts had called for a 1.8% reduction that matched June's figure. Households spent more on housing and furniture, but cut back on food, fuel, and transportation compared to a year ago. It's a welcome sign as it means consumer, though still keeping their pocketbooks close to their chest, are not reducing spending by levels first thought. Today's other data from Japan showed better than expected retail sales, increased industrial production and a reduction in the unemployment rate. Combined together today's data shows a Japanese economy that may be stronger than initially thought.

July
28th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-1.8% -2.8% -3.2% N/A

For June
Provided by: Statistics Bureau
Latest Release: Summary

Overall household spending was down 1.8% in June compared to a year ago, which was better than forecast. It's the 4th month in a row that the figure was negative. Incomes were down 2.1%, with extraordinary income, a measure usually of bonuses, fell 7.1% in June from a year earlier.  

From the Release: "(1) Expenditures for Two-or-more-person Households

The average amount of monthly consumption expenditures per household for June 2008 was 281,951 yen, up 0.5% in nominal terms but down 1.8% in real terms from the previous year.

(2) Income and Expenditures for Workers' Households

The average amount of monthly income per household stood at 737,166 yen, up 0.2% in nominal terms but down 2.1% in real terms from the previous year. The amount of consumption expenditures was 307,975 yen, up 2.6% in nominal terms and up 0.3% in real terms from the previous year."

June
26th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-3.2% -2.0% -2.7% N/A

For May
Provided by: Statistics Bureau
Latest Release: Summary

Household spending fell another 3.2% in May compared to the same time year, the third straight month of declines. Consumers continue to feel gloomy and are tightening their spending, as rising inflation and a weakening labor market pressure households. Core inflation, excluding food, rose 1.5% from a year ago, and demand for Japanese electronics and cars may be curtailed by slowing growth in other economies. The combination of factors will work to lower 2nd quarter GDP. Stock markets in Japan fell to a 2 month low, the 7th day in a row stocks declined.    

May
29th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-2.7% -0.7% -1.6% N/A

For April
Provided by: Statistics Bureau
Official Release: Summary

Household spending showed a decline of 2.7% for April compared to the same time last year. This is lower than the 1.6% decline the index saw for the March period, and undershot forecasts of an improvement to -0.7%. Compared to last year, spending fell the most on food (-3.1%), housing (-7.2%), clothing & footwear (-4.1%) and education (-5.6%). Incomes were down 1.6% in real terms compared to last year, with disposable income declining -5.4%.

Consumer spending has taken a turn for the worst as confidence is eroded by higher prices and lower real income. Conditions are increasingly difficult as energy prices eat into workers salaries, and global conditions are starting to hurt employment. The unemployment rate increased to 4% in April as more people are looking for a job in order to help make ends meet as a result of higher prices. Higher inflation, lower spending and tightening job conditions are sure to give the Bank of Japan a headache as they have abandoned their plans to gradually raise rates. Policy makers are in a bind as they cannot lower rates to spur growth if it will mean prices continue to accelerate.

From the Release: "The average amount of monthly consumption expenditures per household for April 2008 was 310,695 yen, down 1.7% in nominal terms and down 2.7% in real terms from the previous year.

The average amount of monthly income per household stood at 469,774 yen, down 0.6% in nominal terms and down 1.6% in real terms from the previous year.

The amount of consumption expenditures was 343,586 yen, up 0.4% in nominal terms but down 0.6% in real terms from the previous year."

April
29th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-1.6% 0.4% 0.0% N/A

For March
Provided by: Statistics Bureau

Household spending fell 1.6% in March compared to last year, as incomes rose 0.6%. Disposable income was down 1%. The data showed that households cut back on spending for housing (-22%), transportation (-9.5%) and education (-9.3). The economy in Japan has been getting weaker as high inflation eats into incomes, and pushes down confidence. Recent business activity have shown that the US led global slowdown is starting to effect exports, and not this data shows that domestic demand may be waning as well.  

March
27th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.0% 2.5% 3.6% N/A

For February
Provided by: Statistics Bureau

Pre-Release: In January household spending surprised forecasts by rising 3.8%. Forecasts for February (2.5%) call for spending to cool, falling back more towards December's value (2.2%).

9/27 10/29 11/29 12/27 1/28 2/28
1.6% 3.2% 0.6% -0.6% 2.2% 3.6%

Post-Release: Household Spending dropped to a flat reading in February, when forecasts had called for a 2.5% rise. The data implies that households were reluctant to spend. As can be seen above spending had been positive the last 2 months. Consumer confidence is sagging as a result of rising food and energy prices, sluggish wage growth, and a murky outlook for the global economy. Consumer spending makes up 55% of GDP, and is critical to sustaining Japan's recent recovery.

February
28th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
3.6% 0.4% 2.2% N/A

For January
Provided by: Statistics Bureau

Household spending surprised forecasts and showed a strong rise for the January period. Expectations were for a fall in expenditure. Increased spending will help buttress the economy as foreign demand, especially from the US gets weaker as a result of its slowdown. A combination of news from Japan helped to strenghten the Yen.

"The average amount of monthly consumption expenditures per household for January 2008 was 309,826 yen, up 4.5% in nominal terms and up 3.6% in real terms from the previous year.

The average amount of monthly income per household stood at 438,998 yen, down 0.5% in nominal terms and down 1.4% in real terms from the previous year. The amount of consumption expenditures was 341,138 yen, up 3.9% in nominal terms and up 3.0% in real terms from the previous year."

January
28th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
2.2% -0.2% -0.6% N/A

For December

Spending by Japanese rebounded in December in annual terms. Spending on durable goods underpinned the increased spending. In accompanying news, overall household income dropped 2.7%.

Source: Forbes

December
27th, 2007
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-0.6% 0.4% 0.6% N/A
For November. Spending declined dramatically in November as the labor market is tightening and uncertainty is brewing over outlook of corporate profits.

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