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Main Indicator: Personal Income
Most Recent Release
|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 1.9% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | ||
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For May
Spending by US consumers rose more than forecast in May, climbing 0.8%. They were boosted by an increase to income as a result of tax rebates sent out by the government to help jumpstart a sputtering economy. Incomes grew by their largest margin in 3 years, 1.9%.
With the temporary relief, or boost to income, US consumers bought gas which has recently shot up in price, and then electronics, clothing and furniture. |
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Table of Past Data
| 9/28 | 11/1 | 11/30 | 12/21 | 1/31 | 2/29 | 3/28 | 5/1 | 5/30 | 6/27 | ||
| Actual | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 1.9% | |
| Forecast | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| Previous | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | |
| Revised From | N/A | 0.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.3% | 0.2% | |
Secondary Indicator: Personal Spending
Most Recent Release
|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | ||
|
For May
Spending by US consumers rose more than forecast in May, climbing 0.8%. They were boosted by an increase to income as a result of tax rebates sent out by the government to help jumpstart a sputtering economy. Incomes grew by their largest margin in 3 years, 1.9%.
With the temporary relief, or boost to income, US consumers bought gas which has recently shot up in price, and then electronics, clothing and furniture. |
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Table of Past Data
| 9/28 | 11/1 | 11/30 | 12/21 | 1/31 | 2/29 | 3/28 | 5/1 | 5/30 | 6/27 | ||
| Actual | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| Forecast | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| Previous | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| Revised From | N/A | 0.6% | N/A | 0.2% | 1.1% | 0.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.2% | |
Past Releases
Personal Income
|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | ||
|
For April
Provided by: Commerce Department
Personal Spending
Personal Income
Private wage and salary disbursements decreased $18.2 billion in April, in contrast to an increase of $26.9 billion in March. Private wages and salaries had been boosted by $15.0 billion at an annual rate in January, in February, and in March to reflect large bonus payments. These types of irregular payments are not accounted for in the primary monthly source data for wages and salaries. This adjustment for one-time bonuses has not been carried forward in the estimates of wage and salary disbursements for April and subsequent months. Goods-producing industries' payrolls decreased $11.4 billion, in contrast to an increase of $4.5 billion; manufacturing payrolls decreased $5.1 billion, in contrast to an increase of $2.5 billion. Services-producing industries' payrolls decreased $6.8 billion, in contrast to an increase of $22.4 billion. Government wage and salary disbursements increased $3.7 billion, compared with an increase of $3.4 billion. |
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|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | N/A | ||
|
For April
Provided by: Commerce Department
Personal Spending
Personal Income
Private wage and salary disbursements decreased $18.2 billion in April, in contrast to an increase of $26.9 billion in March. Private wages and salaries had been boosted by $15.0 billion at an annual rate in January, in February, and in March to reflect large bonus payments. These types of irregular payments are not accounted for in the primary monthly source data for wages and salaries. This adjustment for one-time bonuses has not been carried forward in the estimates of wage and salary disbursements for April and subsequent months. Goods-producing industries' payrolls decreased $11.4 billion, in contrast to an increase of $4.5 billion; manufacturing payrolls decreased $5.1 billion, in contrast to an increase of $2.5 billion. Services-producing industries' payrolls decreased $6.8 billion, in contrast to an increase of $22.4 billion. Government wage and salary disbursements increased $3.7 billion, compared with an increase of $3.4 billion. |
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|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | N/A | ||
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For March
Personal incomes increased 0.3% in March, lower than anticipated, and less than the 0.5% seen in February. With spending in March at 0.5%, it means the difference between the two amounts to -0.2%. From the Release:
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | N/A | ||
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For March
Personal spending heated up in March, rising 0.4% compared to 0.1% in February. The figure doubled the consensus estimate, and was a positive sign for the economy as consumer spending makes up roughly 70% of GDP. The Dollar strengthened following the release, and hit a new intra-day low vs the the Euro. However, adjusted for inflation, spending was up 0.1%. Incomes were up 0.3%, as was expected. |
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|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.5% | N/A | ||
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For February.
Personal Incomes increased 0.5% in February, beating expectations of a slowdown to 0.3%. Though incomes rose, spending was subdead at 0.1%. The savings rate improved to 0.3% from -0.1% in January. A negative rate suggests consumers are drawing down savings to maintain spending. Wages and salaries rose just 0.3% after a 0.5% gain in January. Wages aren't keeping up with inflation. If wages are adjusted for prices, hourly earnings for the 12 months through February fell 0.8%. |
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|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.4% | N/A | ||
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For February
Consumer Spending slowed to 0.1%, hitting the consensus forecast. Its the slowest pace in more than a year, and points to consumers tightening their belts just as the economy is facing what more and more experts are calling a recession. Consumers make up two-thirds of GDP so a cut back in spending will surely put the system in recession. With slower economic growth, inflation should recede, or at least is the current logic in the Fed's thinking as it slashes interest rates. Producers are facing higher inflation costs to make their products as import and materials cost more. In this environment they may be unable to pass any of those price changes on to the consumer, either cutting into profits or causing slower supply. Personal Incomes were up 0.5% and Core "Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE)" Price Index rose 0.1% last month. |
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|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.5% | N/A | ||
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For January.
Provided by the Commerce Department Employees of goods producing and services industries saw wage increases in January after decreases in December. Wage increases will be needed to stave off the deterioration of consumer power that is stemming from inflationsary pressures. January saw a lot of irregular increases such as bonuses. Excluding special factors, income increased 0.2% as economists had predicted so this does not provide any relief to the inflation issue. The increase in private wages and salaries was the result of large bonus payments and gainst on the exercise of stock options. Pay raises for federal and military workers increased government wages. In other industries: Goods-producing industries' payrolls increased $0.5 billion in January, in contrast to a decrease of $1.2 billion in December; manufacturing payrolls increased $0.3 billion, in contrast to a decrease of $0.4 billion. Services-producing industries' payrolls increased $22.5 billion, compared with an increase of $24.3 billion. |
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|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | ||
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For January.
Provided by the Commerce Department Spending increased twice as much as economists predicted. This is somewhat a welcome sign that although consumers are less optimistic and has been lighter on the shopping cart, they are spending neverthless. On the otherhand, inflation has wiped out the increase in spending, thus actual consumption may not have increased. This deterioration of consumer power is taking a backseat for now, as the Fed is focusing on the lackluster economic growth. Personal outlays -- PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments increased $44.6 billion in January, compared with an increase of $28.3 billion in December. PCE increased $39.9 billion, compared with an increase of $32.0 billion. |
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|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | N/A | ||
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For December.
Personal income increased 0.5% ($55.1 bln) in December, with disposable personal income up 0.5% ($47.5 bln) as well. It returns the indicator to levels seen in August and September, after falling to 0.2% in October and 0.4% in November. |
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|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.2% | 0.1% | 1.0% | 1.1% | ||
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For December.
Even though personal spending beat out the consensus forecast, the 0.2% increase ($19.7 bln) for December was the slowest pace in six months. Personal savings, which takes income and subtracts spending, was a positive $26 bln in December, in contrast to $-1.8 bln in November. |
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|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | N/A | ||
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For November. Official Release from Department of Commerce Incomes increased 0.4% in November, accelerating from October's 0.2%. Disposable Income, the money left over after taxes, rose 0.3%, however disposable income adjusted for inflation saw a 0.3% decline. Growth in wages helped push personal spending to a 1.1% increase. |
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|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | ||
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For November. Official Release from the Department of Commerce Consumer Spending increased more than forecast in November, fueled by early holiday specials. The 1.1% increase was the largest since July of 2005, and compliments the better than expected retail sales data seen last Thursday. Incomes made a comeback, rising .4%, which gave workers more money to spend for shopping. Thought wages rose, negative factors weighing on consumers include falling home values and rising fuel costs. The better than expected results however have reduced the chances of a recession in the short term. |
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|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | N/A | ||
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For October. Commerce Department Personal income grew at the slowest pace in 6 months, increasing concerns that the US economy is heading for a "rough" patch. Consumer spending also showed a weaker increase. |
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|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | N/A | ||
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For October. With higher gasoline prices, the housing slump, and reduced access to credit, consumer spending grew at a slower pace than expected. The news also reinforces expectations that the Fed will move on interest rates again when it meets on Dec. 11th. |
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|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.6% |
|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | N/A | ||
| For August | |||||
|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.4% | N/A | ||
| For August | |||||