Indicator Digest - CMS Forex

Public Sector New Borrowing

Main Indicator: Public Sector Net Borrowing

Most Recent Release

July
18th, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

9.2B

7.4B

12.5B

11.0B

For June
Provided by: National Statistics Office

Public Finances (PSNCR): 15.5B, forecast 12.6B, pr. 11.0B

From the Release:

"The main statistics released show that in June 2008:

• the public sector current budget was in deficit by £7.6 billion; this is a £2.3 billion higher deficit than in June 2007, when there was a deficit of £5.3 billion;
• public sector net borrowing was £9.2 billion; this is £2.9 billion higher net borrowing than in June 2007, when net borrowing was £6.3 billion;
• the public sector net cash requirement was £15.5 billion, a £5.4 billion higher net cash requirement than in June 2007, when there was a net cash requirement of £10.1 billion. N.B. rather than looking at the cash measure, which can be misleading due to timing factors, it is better to look at the other, accruals-based, statistics
• at the end of June 2008 public sector net debt was £555.3 billion (equivalent to 38.3 per cent of GDP). This compares to £514.6 billion (37.3 per cent) as at the end of June 2007.

Table of Past Data

	10/18	11/20	12/20	1/21	2/20	3/20	4/18	5/21	6/19	7/18

Actual	£6.9B	-1.0B	11.2B	£7.8B	-14.1B	2.7B	10.2B	-0.5B	11.0B	9.2B
Forecast	£6.0B	-2.8B	9.0B	£7.1B	-9.5B	2.3B	7.8B	1.8B	9.3B	7.4B
Previous	£8.8B	7.2B	-0.4B	£11.4B	6.9B	-14.0B	0.2B	10.2B	-0.5B	12.5B
Revised From	£9.1B	6.9B	-01.0B	£11.2B	7.8B	-14.1B	2.7B	N/A	N/A	11.0B

Past Releases

June
19th, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

11.0B

9.3B

-0.5B

N/A

For May
Provided by: National Statistics Office

Public Finances (PSNCR): forecast 6.5B, pr. -0.5B

May
21st, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

-0.5B

1.8B

10.2B

N/A

For April
Provided by: National Statistics Office

Public Finances (PSNCR): -1.0B, forecast -2.5B, pr. 12.1B (rev from 12.7B)

April
18th, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

10.2B

7.8B

0.2B

2.7B

For March
Provided by: National Statistics Office

Public Finances (PSNCR): 12.7B, pr. 2.9B

The UK budget deficit widened to 10.2 billion pounds ($20.4 billion) in March. Net borrowing increased from a downwardly revised February total of 247 million pounds. Central government net investment rose 47% from a year earlier to 7.5 billion pounds, amounting to 3/4'ths of total borrowing.

The Pound tested the 2:1 level vs the Dollar overnight but then pared some of its gains prior to the NY open.

March
20th, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

2.7B

2.3B

-14.0B

-14.1B

For February
Provided by: National Statistics Office

Public Finances (PSNCR): 2.9B, forecast 2.5B, pr. -22.0B

The UK's Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling had announced the government's PSNB budget for the full year to be 36.4B pounds. After end of February, the yearly PSNB came to 27.8B pounds, allowing for a large deficit and still be able to meet the target.

February
20th, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

-14.1B

-9.5B

6.9B

7.8B

For January
Provided by: National Statistics Office
Official Source: PDF

The government's preferred measure of public finance, public sector net borrowing, showed a record surplus of £14.14bn (ie lending), as higher coporation tax receipts came in larger than expected. January is typically a strong month, but economists had forecast a rapayment by the government of £9.5bn.

January
21st, 2008

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

£7.8B

£7.1B

£11.4B

£11.2B

For December
Release from Office of National Statistics (ONS)

Government expenditures increased and pushed the current budget to a deficit of £5.1B, the largest for December since records began in 1993.

December
20th, 2007

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

11.2B

9.0B

-0.4B

-01.0B

For November
Release from Office of National Statistics

November
20th, 2007

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

-1.0B

-2.8B

7.2B

6.9B

For October.

October
18th, 2007

Actual

Forecast

Revised Form

£6.9B

£6.0B

£8.8B

£9.1B

For September

For this month, this is the highest Government borrowing on record. The overall public sector budget deficit was £3.8billion compared with £3.9billion in September 2007.