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Foreign Captial Flows
These indicators measure flows of foreign capital across borders. The reports measure the monthly value of purchases by foreigners of domestic securities, debt, and assets. Long-term securities are looked at more closely than short term flows for underlying fundamentals, while short term flows can show reaction to market crises.

Main Indicator: Net Long-term TIC Flows

Most Recent Release

September
16th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
6.1B 55.0B 53.4B N/A

For July
Provided by: Department of Treasury
Official Release: Press Release

Monthly Net TIC Flows: -74.8B, pr. 51.1B (Jun), pr. 12.3B (May), $65.8B (Apr)

From the Release: "Net foreign purchases of long-term securities were $6.1 billion.

  • Net foreign purchases of long-term U.S. securities were negative $25.6 billion. Of this, net purchases by private foreign investors were negative $20.7 billion, and net purchases by foreign official institutions were negative $4.9 billion.
  • U.S. residents sold a net $31.7 billion of long-term foreign securities.

Net foreign acquisition of long-term securities, taking into account adjustments, is estimated to have been negative $8.2 billion.

Foreign holdings of dollar-denominated short-term U.S. securities, including Treasury bills, and other custody liabilities decreased $8.4 billion. Foreign holdings of Treasury bills decreased $4.4 billion.

Banks’ own net dollar-denominated liabilities to foreign residents declined $58.1 billion.

Monthly net TIC flows were negative $74.8 billion. Of this, net foreign private flows were negative $92.9 billion, and net foreign official flows were $18.2 billion."

 

Next Release Date: October 16th 2008, 9:15 EST

Table of Past Data

12/171/162/153/174/155/156/167/168/159/16
Actual$114.0B90.9B$56.5B62.0B72.5B80.4B115.1B67.0B53.4B6.1B
Forecast$49.0B70.0B$71.0B60.0B55.0B63.6B63.0B55.0B55.0B
Previous-$15.4B114.0B$90.9B56.5B57.1B64.9B79.6B111.9B83.2B53.4B
Revised From$26.4BN/AN/AN/A62.0B72.5B80.4B115.1B67.0BN/A

Past Releases

August
15th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
53.4B 55.0B 83.2B 67.0B

For June
Provided by: Department of Treasury
Official Release: Press Release

Monthly Net TIC Flows: 51.1B, pr. 12.3B (rev from 2.5B), $65.8B (Apr r)

From the Release: "Net foreign purchases of long-term securities were $53.4 billion.

  • Net foreign purchases of long-term U.S. securities were $62.7 billion. Of this, net purchases by private foreign investors were $47.8 billion, and net purchases by foreign official institutions were $14.9 billion.
  • U.S. residents purchased a net $9.2 billion of long-term foreign securities.

Net foreign acquisition of long-term securities, taking into account adjustments, is estimated to have been $36.6 billion.

Foreign holdings of dollar-denominated short-term U.S. securities, including Treasury bills, and other custody liabilities decreased $2.2 billion. Foreign holdings of Treasury bills increased $6.9 billion.

Banks’ own net dollar-denominated liabilities to foreign residents increased $16.7 billion.

Monthly net TIC flows were positive $51.1 billion. Of this, net foreign private flows were $38.0 billion, and net foreign official flows were $13.1 billion."

July
16th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
67.0B 111.9B 115.1B

For May
Provided by: Department of Treasury
Official Release: Press Release

Monthly Net TIC Flows: -$2.5B, pr. $61.6B (rev from $60.6B)

Overseas demand for US long-term securities, excluding non-market flows, recorded net buying of $67 billion, after purchases of $111.9 billion in April. Foreigners accounted for $44.4 billion of that total. This figure includes equities, notes and bonds, which are considered long-term assets. The broadest category, "Monthly Net TIC Flows", which includes short-term securities such as Treasury bills and non-market trades such as stock swaps, showed selling of $2.5 billion.

June
16th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
115.1B 63.0B 79.6B 80.4B

For April
Provided by: Department of Treasury
Official Release: Press Release 

Monthly Net TIC Flows: $60.6B, forecast $42.5B, pr. -$48.7B

 

The TIC, or “Treasury International Capital“ report revealed that foreign buying of US financial assets - long term  rose more than forecast in April to an 11-month high of $115.1 billion. This figure includes equities, notes and bonds, which are considered long-term assets. Including short-term securities such as Treasury bills and non-market trades such as stock swaps, foreigners bought a net $60.6 billion, rebounding form a net sales of $48.7 billion in March.

The figures report that after the collapse of Bear Stearns, the markets were able to regain confidence in US securities with more purchases of Treasury bills. Today's figure was more than enough to cover April's trade deficit of $60.9 billion as the TIC report measures how closely the US is able to finance its trade balance. 

 

May
15th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
80.4B 63.6B 64.9B 72.5B

For March
Provided by: Department of Treasury
Official Release: Press Release 

Monthly Net TIC Flows: $-48.2B, forecast $67.5B, pr. $48.9B (rev from $64.1B)

The Treasury International Capital report, or TIC, showed that net foreign acquisitions of long-maturity US securities, excluding non-market flows such as stock swaps and principal repayment on asset-backed securities, totaled $80.4 billion in March, and the February figure was revised down to $48.9B. Total net foreign purchase of long-term securities amounted to $54.2B.

The monthly Net TIC flow, which excluded non-market flows, short-term securities and changes in bank's dollar holdings, saw a decline of -$48.2B. This is the most comprehensive category and shows that the US is attracting short term but not long term capital flows. The TIC report is important in gaging how well the US is able to finance its trade deficit.

April
15th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
72.5B 55.0B 57.1B 62.0B

For February
Provided by: Department of Treasury

Total Net TIC Flows: 64.1B, forecast $72.5B, pr. $37.4B

Net long term TIC flows beat the consensus forecast, totaling $72.5 billion in February, while total TIC flows for the month reached $64.1 billion. The solid showing of interest in US treasuries is a good sign that foreigners are buying US debt and therefore helping the Dollar. 

Following better than expected NY Empire Manufacturing data, the TIC report helped extend gains by the Dollar vs the Euro and Yen in the hour after the release. 

March
17th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
62.0B 60.0B 56.5B N/A

For January
Provided by: Department of Treasury
Official Release: Press Release

Total Net TIC Flows: $37.4B, forecast $85.0B, pr. $60.4B

Total Foreign Capital Inflow, which is the broadest measure which includes non-market flows, short-term securities and changes in banks' dollar holdings, fell to $37.4 billion in January, a decline of almost 50% from the previous month. Net foreign private flows were negative $38.2 billion, though net foreign official flows were positive $75.5 billion.

Central banks stepped up their purchases of Treasury notes ($36.1 billion compared to $11 billion in Dec), and private foreign investors bought a net $1.5 billion, after making net sales of $9.8 billion the previous month.

The EUR/USD and USD/JPY were little changed directly after the release.

February
15th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
$56.5B $71.0B $90.9B N/A

For December
Provided by: Department of Treasury
Official Release: Press Release

Total Net TIC Flows: $60.4B, forecast $70.0B, pr. $150.8B

"Net foreign purchases of long-term securities were $56.5 billion.

Net foreign purchases of long-term U.S. securities were $69.1 billion. Of this, net purchases by foreign official institutions were $35.8 billion, and net purchases by private foreign investors were $33.3 billion.

U.S. residents purchased a net $12.6 billion of long-term foreign securities. Net foreign acquisition of long-term securities, taking into account adjustments, is estimated to havenbeen $45.2 billion.

Foreign holdings of dollar-denominated short-term U.S. securities, including Treasury bills, and other custody liabilities increased $34.2 billion. Foreign holdings of Treasury bills increased $15.5 billion.

Banks’ own net dollar-denominated liabilities to foreign residents decreased $19.0 billion.

Monthly net TIC flows were positive $60.4 billion. Of this, net foreign private flows were positive $8.4 billion, and net foreign official flows were positive $52.1 billion."

January
16th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
90.9B 70.0B 114.0B N/A
For November.
Official Release from the Treasury Department

Net foreign purchases of long-term securities were $90.9 billion, lower that October's $114.0 billion. Monthly net TIC flows were positive $149.9 billion, jumping form last month's $92.2 billion. Acquisition of long-term securities totaled $79.9 billion in the month.
December
17th, 2007
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
$114.0B $49.0B -$15.4B $26.4B
For October
Release from Department of the Treasury

Total TIC Flows: $97.8B, forecast $30.0B, pr. -$32.8B

After two months of outflows, October recorded a recovery of appetite in US securities, and tripled expectations. Private flows were positive $56.2 billion while official flows were positive $41.6 billion.

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