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Indicator Digest

Business Inventories
Business inventories measures the stockpiles of all companies. A rising trend can be detrimental to growth as it means sales are not keeping pace with goods on hand. Business, and wholesalers (which make up 1/4 of US business inventories), order more goods from manufacturers when they have depleted their stockpiles.
  • USA

Main Indicator: Business Inventories m/m

Most Recent Release

March
12th, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.0% 0.2% -0.3% -0.2%

For January (s.a.)
Provided by: US Department of Commerce

Sales m/m: 0.6%, pr. 1.0% R+ (Dec), 2.0% (Nov), 1.4% (Oct)
Inv./Sales Ratio: 1.25, pr. 1.26 (Dec), 1.28 (Nov), 1.30 (Oct)
Inv. y/y: -8.6%, pr. -9.7% (Dec), -11.1% (Nov), -8.2% (Oct),
-13.4% (Sep), -13.3% (Aug), -11.8% (Jul), -9.8% (Jun)

Table of Past Data

6/117/148/139/1510/1411/1612/111/142/123/12
Actual-1.1%-1.0%-1.1%-1.0%-1.5%-0.4%0.2%0.4%-0.2%0.0%
Forecast-1.0%-0.9%-0.9%-0.8%-0.8%-0.8%-0.2%0.0%0.4%0.2%
Previous-1.3%-1.3%-1.2%-1.1%-1.1%-1.6%-0.4%0.2%0.5%-0.3%
Revised From-1.0%-1.1%-1.0%N/A-1.0%-1.5%N/AN/A0.4%-0.2%

Secondary Indicator: Wholesale Inventories m/m

Most Recent Release

March
10th, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-0.2% 0.2% -1.0% -0.8%

For January
Provided by: U.S. Census Bureau
Most Current Release: PDF

Sales: 1.3%, pr. 0.8% (Dec), 3.3% (Nov), 1.2% (Oct), 0.7% (Sep),
1.0% (Aug), 0.5% (Jul), 0.4% (Jun), 0.2% (May), -0.4% (Apr)
Inventories/Sales: 1.10, pr. 1.12 (Dec), 1.14 (Nov), 1.16 (Oct),
1.18 (Sep), 1.20 (Aug), 1.23 (Jul), 1.25 (Jun), 1.29 (May)

US wholesale inventories unexpectedly declined 0.2% m/m to $382.2 billion in January after a revised 1.0% m/m decrease in December, according to figures from the Commerce Department. Wholesale sales rose 1.3% m/m to $346.7 billion, a 10th consecutive monthly gain and the largest since November, following an upwardly revised 1.2% m/m December advance. The inventory-to-sales ratio at the end of January declined to 1.10, the lowest since records began in 1992, from 1.12 in December, compared with 1.35 in January 2009. Inventories fell 9.7% y/y in January while sales rose 10.5% y/y.

Table of Past Data

6/97/98/119/1110/811/612/91/82/93/10
Actual-1.4%-0.8%-1.7%-1.4%-1.3%-0.9%0.3%1.5%-0.8%-0.2%
Forecast-1.1%-1.0%-1.0%-1.0%-0.9%-0.9%-0.6%-0.2%0.5%0.2%
Previous-1.8%-1.3%-1.2%-2.1%-1.6%-1.3%-0.8%0.6%1.5%-1.0%
Revised From-1.6%-1.4%-0.8%-1.7%-1.4%N/A-0.9%0.3%N/A-0.8%

Past Releases

Business Inventories m/m
February
12th, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-0.2% 0.4% 0.5% 0.4%

For December (s.a.)
Provided by: US Department of Commerce

Sales: 0.9%, pr. 2.0% (Nov), 1.4% (Oct), -0.4% (Sep)
Inv./Sales Ratio: 1.26, pr. 1.28 (Nov), 1.30 (Oct), 1.43 (Sep)
Inv. y/y: -9.7%, pr. -11.1% (Nov), -8.2% (Oct), -13.4% (Sep),
-13.3% (Aug), -11.8% (Jul), -9.8% (Jun), -8.0% (May),

Wholesale Inventories m/m
February
9th, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-0.8% 0.5% 1.5% N/A

For December
Provided by: U.S. Census Bureau
Most Current Release: PDF

Sales: 0.8%, pr. 3.3% (Nov), 1.2% (Oct), 0.7% (Sep), 1.0% (Aug),
0.5% (Jul), 0.4% (Jun), 0.2% (May), -0.4% (Apr), -2.4% (Mar)
Inventories/Sales: 1.12 pr. 1.14 (Nov), 1.16 (Oct), 1.18 (Sep),
1.20 (Aug), 1.23 (Jul), 1.25 (Jun), 1.29 (May), 1.31 (Apr)

Business Inventories m/m
January
14th, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.4% 0.0% 0.2% N/A

For November (s.a.)
Provided by: US Department of Commerce

Sales: 2.0%, pr. 1.4% (Oct), -0.4% (Sep)
Inv./Sales Ratio: 1.28, pr. 1.30 (Oct), 1.43 (Sep)
Inv. y/y: -11.1%, pr. -8.2% (Oct), -13.4% (Sep),-13.3% (Aug),
-11.8% (Jul), -9.8% (Jun), -8.0% (May), -1.1% (Apr), 4.8% (Mar),
-3.5% (Feb), -1.5% (Jan), 0.9% (Dec), 3.3% (Nov), 4.6% (Oct)

Business inventories rose 0.4% in November, a figure that was larger than expected. Business inventories are a measure of the total value of goods held by manufacturers, wholesalers and retailers and when they are being depleted are an indicator that businesses will have to increase future spending in order to replenish their stockpiles. A higher number means that businesses may limit future spending. Therefore this figure can be seen either as a backwards looking sign that businesses had ordered more goods previously or as a forward looking indicator that can signal weaker future spending. 

The report showed that inventories rose even as the sales pace rose 2.0% in November following a 1.4% increase in October. The inventory to sales ratio meanwhile came in at 1.28, which was a further reduction of this indicator. It means that at the current sales pace, businesses have 1.28 months worth of goods on hand. This figure was at 1.30 in October and 1.43 in September. 

Wholesale Inventories m/m
January
8th, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
1.5% -0.2% 0.6% 0.3%

For November
Release from U.S. Census Bureau
Most Current Release: PDF

Sales: 3.3% pr. 1.2% (Oct), 0.7% (Sep), 1.0% (Aug), 0.5% (Jul),
0.4% (Jun), 0.2% (May), -0.4% (Apr), -2.4% (Mar), 0.6% (Feb)
Inventories/Sales: 1.14, pr. 1.16 (Oct), 1.18 (Sep), 1.20 (Aug),
1.23 (Jul), 1.25 (Jun), 1.29 (May), 1.31 (Apr), 1.32 (Mar), 1.31 (Feb)

Business Inventories m/m
December
11th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.2% -0.2% -0.4% N/A

For October (s.a.)
Provided by: US Department of Commerce

Inv. y/y: pr. -13.4% (Sep),-13.3% (Aug), -11.8% (Jul), -9.8% (Jun),
-8.0% (May), -1.1% (Apr), 4.8% (Mar), -3.5% (Feb), -1.5% (Jan),
0.9% (Dec), 3.3% (Nov), 4.6% (Oct), 5.5% (Sep), 6.4% (Aug)

Wholesale Inventories m/m
December
9th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.3% -0.6% -0.8% -0.9%

For October
Release from U.S. Census Bureau
Current Release: PDF

Sales: 1.2%, pr. 0.7% (Sep), 1.0% (Aug), 0.5% (Jul), 0.4% (Jun),
0.2% (May), -0.4% (Apr), -2.4% (Mar), 0.6% (Feb), -2.9% (Jan)
Inventories/Sales: 1.16, pr. 1.18 (Sep), 1.20 (Aug), 1.23 (Jul),
1.25 (Jun), 1.29 (May), 1.31 (Apr), 1.32 (Mar), 1.31 (Feb), 1.34 (Jan)

Inventories at US wholesalers rose for the first time in over a year in October. The 0.3% surprised forecasts which saw another 0.6% drop in inventories. Sales were up 1.2% and the inventory to sales ratio fell further to 1.16. That wholesalers added to inventories despite a jump in sales means that companies were picking up the pace of orders. The higher sales pace was responsible for the inventory to sales ratio falling despite an increase in inventories.

US wholesalers had cut stockpiles the first 9 months of the year and that sets the stage for companies to increase spending and production as demand stabilizes and companies restock. Some of that has already been happening as new orders in manufacturing surveys have been strong the past few months. Consumer spending was up more than expected in October, 0.7%, which helped to drive up the pace of sales. US retail sales figures come out Friday, as will consumer confidence data, and that will give fundamental traders a better sense of how the US consumer is faring in this recovery.  

Business Inventories m/m
November
16th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-0.4% -0.8% -1.6% -1.5%

For September (s.a.)
Provided by: US Department of Commerce

Inv. y/y: -13.4%, pr. -13.3% (Aug), -11.8% (Jul), -9.8% (Jun),
-8.0% (May), -1.1% (Apr), 4.8% (Mar), -3.5% (Feb), -1.5% (Jan),
0.9% (Dec), 3.3% (Nov), 4.6% (Oct), 5.5% (Sep), 6.4% (Aug)

US inventories fell in September at half the rate of decline expected. Stockpiles were drawn down 0.4% to a seasonally adjusted $1.303 trillion, following a 1.6% decline in August. The slowdown came as there was an increase in the number of unsold cars following the expiration of the government's incentive program to sell vehicles. Inventories of cars rose 3.8%, as sales tumbled. That decline in car sales led overall sales to be down 0.3% to $988.0 billion. The inventory-to-sales ratio held at 1.32. 

Wholesale Inventories m/m
November
6th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-0.9% -0.9% -1.3% N/A

For September
Release from U.S. Census Bureau
Most Current Release: PDF

Sales: 0.7%, pr. 1.0% (Aug), 0.5% (Jul), 0.4% (Jun), 0.2% (May),
-0.4% (Apr), -2.4% (Mar), 0.6% (Feb), -2.9% (Jan), -3.6% (Dec)
Inventories/Sales: 1.18, pr. 1.20 (Aug), 1.23 (Jul), 1.25 (Jun),
1.29 (May), 1.31 (Apr), 1.32 (Mar), 1.31 (Feb), 1.34 (Jan)

Business Inventories m/m
October
14th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-1.5% -0.8% -1.1% -1.0%

For August (s.a.)
Provided by: US Department of Commerce

Inv. y/y: -13.3%, pr. -11.8% (Jul), -9.8% (Jun), -8.0% (May),
-1.1% (Apr), 4.8% (Mar), -3.5% (Feb), -1.5% (Jan), 0.9% (Dec),
3.3% (Nov), 4.6% (Oct), 5.5% (Sep), 6.4% (Aug), 6.4% (Jul)

Business inventories continued to be run down in August, with stockpiles decreasing 1.5% compared to the previous month. That figure was a bigger drop than forecast, and can help lead to companies placing more orders after drawing down stockpiles at a record pace in the first half of the year. That in turn should help capital spending and can lead to a pick up in production, all factors that would help economic activity and GDP growth. Inventories are now down 13.3% compared to a year ago. A big part of the drawdown in August was due to lower inventory at car dealers following strong August sales as a result of the government's cash for clunkers program. 

Wholesale Inventories m/m
October
8th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-1.3% -0.9% -1.6% -1.4%

For August
Release from U.S. Census Bureau
Most Current Release: PDF

Sales: 1.0%, pr. 0.5% (Jul), 0.4% (Jun), 0.2% (May), -0.4% (Apr),
-2.4% (Mar), 0.6% (Feb), -2.9% (Jan), -3.6% (Dec), -7.1% (Nov)
Inventories/Sales: 1.20, pr. 1.23 (Jul), 1.25 (Jun), 1.29 (May),
1.31 (Apr), 1.32 (Mar), 1.31 (Feb), 1.34 (Jan), 1.27 (Dec)

Business Inventories m/m
September
15th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-1.0% -0.8% -1.1% N/A

For July (s.a.)
Provided by: US Department of Commerce

Inv. y/y: pr. -9.8% (Jun), -8.0% (May), -1.1% (Apr), 4.8% (Mar),
-3.5% (Feb), -1.5% (Jan), 0.9% (Dec), 3.3% (Nov), 4.6% (Oct),
5.5% (Sep), 6.4% (Aug), 6.4% (Jul), 5.6% (Jun), 5.2% (May)

Wholesale Inventories m/m
September
11th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-1.4% -1.0% -2.1% -1.7%

For July
Release from U.S. Census Bureau
Most Current Release: PDF

Sales (s.a): 0.5%, pr. 0.4% (Jun), 0.2% (May), -0.4% (Apr),
-2.4% (Mar), 0.6% (Feb), -2.9% (Jan), -3.6% (Dec), -7.1% (Nov)
Inventories/Sales (s.a): 1.23, pr. 1.25 R (Jun), 1.29 (May),
1.31 (Apr), 1.32 (Mar), 1.31 (Feb), 1.34 (Jan), 1.27 (Dec), 1.25 (Nov)

Business Inventories m/m
August
13th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-1.1% -0.9% -1.2% -1.0%

For June (s.a.)
Provided by: US Department of Commerce

Inv. y/y: -9.8%, pr. -8.0% (May), -1.1% (Apr), 4.8% (Mar),
-3.5% (Feb), -1.5% (Jan), 0.9% (Dec), 3.3% (Nov), 4.6% (Oct),
5.5% (Sep), 6.4% (Aug), 6.4% (Jul), 5.6% (Jun), 5.2% (May)

Business inventories fell 1.1% in June, the 8th straight month that inventories declined by 1% or more. Business sales were up 0.9%, the largest increase since June 2008, which helped firms run down their inventories. The more inventories are run down the more new orders firms will place with factories and why a higher negative number is better in this indicator. The first two quarters of 2009 have seen stockpiles drop dramatically and can set up the prospect for better growth in the 3rd quarter.

Wholesale Inventories m/m
August
11th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-1.7% -1.0% -1.2% -0.8%

For June
Release from U.S. Census Bureau
This Release: PDF

Sales (s.a): 0,4%,  pr. 0.2% (May), -0.4% (Apr), -2.4% (Mar),
0.6% (Feb), -2.9% (Jan), -3.6% (Dec), -7.1% (Nov), -4.1% (Oct),
Inventories/Sales (s.a):  1.26, pr. 1.29 (May), 1.31 (Apr), 1.32 (Mar),
1.31 (Feb), 1.34 (Jan), 1.27 (Dec), 1.25 (Nov), 1.16 (Oct)

Wholesale inventories fell for the 10th month in a row as firms as distributors try to stay light in this current economic downturn. The 0.4% increase also helped cut down stockpile, and brought the inventory to sales ratio lower to 1.26 from 1.29 in May. The auto industry is enjoying the cash for clunkers program and falling inventory. This suggests a boost in production will be needed in the latter part of 2009 and in turn may support employment.

Business Inventories m/m
July
14th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-1.0% -0.9% -1.3% -1.1%

For May (s.a.)
Provided by: US Department of Commerce

Inv. y/y:  -8.0% (May), pr. -1.1% (Apr), 4.8% (Mar), -3.5% (Feb), -1.5% (Jan),
0.9% (Dec), 3.3% (Nov), 4.6% (Oct), 5.5% (Sep), 6.4% (Aug),
6.4% (Jul), 5.6% (Jun), 5.2% (May)

Inventories fell sharply again in May for the 9th month in a row. Also, the biggest drop in auto inventories in 4 years caused retail inventories to fall 1.6%.  The inventory-to-sale ratio fell to 1.42 from 1.43. Overall, this shows businesses scaling down their stockpile in anticipation of low demand. 

Wholesale Inventories m/m
July
9th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-0.8% -1.0% -1.3% -1.4%

For May
Release from U.S. Census Bureau
Current Release: PDF

Sales (s.a): 0.2%, pr. -0.4% (Apr), -2.4% (Mar), 0.6% (Feb),
-2.9% (Jan), -3.6% (Dec), -7.1% (Nov), -4.1% (Oct), -1.5% (Sep)
Inventories/Sales (s.a): 1.29, pr. 1.31 (Apr), 1.32 (Mar),
1.31 (Feb), 1.34 (Jan), 1.27 (Dec), 1.25 (Nov), 1.16 (Oct)

US wholesalers ran down inventories by 0.8% in May, the 9th straight month that inventories have dropped. An increase in sales of 0.2% helped distributors get rid of some of their excess supply. The decrease was less than expected, but still, the continued drawdown of inventories can set the stage for a return to growth as firms will have to place new orders to replenish their stockpiles. The inventory to sales ratio, which measures how many months it would take to deplete teh amount of goods on hand, fell to 1.29, the lowest level since November. 

Business Inventories m/m
June
11th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-1.1% -1.0% -1.3% -1.0%

For April (s.a.)
Provided by: US Department of Commerce

Inv. y/y: -1.1%, pr. 4.8% (Mar), -3.5% (Feb), -1.5% (Jan),
0.9% (Dec), 3.3% (Nov), 4.6% (Oct), 5.5% (Sep), 6.4% (Aug),
6.4% (Jul), 5.6% (Jun), 5.2% (May)
Wholesale Inventories m/m
June
9th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-1.4% -1.1% -1.8% -1.6%

For April
Release from U.S. Census Bureau
Current Release: PDF

Sales (s.a): -0.4%, pr. -2.4% (Mar), 0.6% (Feb), -2.9% (Jan),
-3.6% (Dec), -7.1% (Nov), -4.1% (Oct), -1.5% (Sep)
Inventories/Sales (s.a): 1.31, pr. 1.32 (Mar), 1.31 (Feb),
1.34 (Jan), 1.27 (Dec), 1.25 (Nov), 1.16 (Oct), 1.12 (Sep)