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Indicator Digest

Business Inventories
Business inventories measures the stockpiles of all companies. A rising trend can be detrimental to growth as it means sales are not keeping pace with goods on hand. Business, and wholesalers (which make up 1/4 of US business inventories), order more goods from manufacturers when they have depleted their stockpiles.
  • USA

Main Indicator: Business Inventories m/m

Most Recent Release

June
11th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-1.1% -1.0% -1.3% -1.0%

For April (s.a.)
Provided by: US Department of Commerce

Inv. y/y: -1.1%, pr. 4.8% (Mar), -3.5% (Feb), -1.5% (Jan),
0.9% (Dec), 3.3% (Nov), 4.6% (Oct), 5.5% (Sep), 6.4% (Aug),
6.4% (Jul), 5.6% (Jun), 5.2% (May)

Table of Past Data

9/1210/1511/1412/121/142/123/124/145/136/11
Actual1.1%0.3%-0.2%-0.6%-0.7%-1.3%-1.1%-1.3%-1.0%-1.1%
Forecast0.5%0.5%0.1%-0.3%-0.5%-0.8%-1.2%-1.2%-1.1%-1.0%
Previous0.7%1.1%0.2%-0.4%-0.6%-1.1%-1.6%-1.3%-1.4%-1.3%
Revised FromN/AN/A0.3%-0.2%N/A-0.7%-1.3%-1.1%-1.3%-1.0%

Secondary Indicator: Wholesale Inventories m/m

Most Recent Release

June
9th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-1.4% -1.1% -1.8% -1.6%

For April
Release from U.S. Census Bureau
Current Release: PDF

Sales (s.a): -0.4%, pr. -2.4% (Mar), 0.6% (Feb), -2.9% (Jan),
-3.6% (Dec), -7.1% (Nov), -4.1% (Oct), -1.5% (Sep)
Inventories/Sales (s.a): 1.31, pr. 1.32 (Mar), 1.31 (Feb),
1.34 (Jan), 1.27 (Dec), 1.25 (Nov), 1.16 (Oct), 1.12 (Sep)

Next Release Date: July 09th 2009, 10:00 EST

Table of Past Data

8/89/911/712/101/92/103/104/85/86/9
Actual1.1%1.4%-0.1%-1.1%-0.6%-1.4%-0.7%-1.5%-1.6%-1.4%
Forecast0.6%0.7%0.4%-0.2%-0.9%-0.9%-1.0%-0.6%-1.1%-1.1%
Previous0.9%0.9%0.6%-0.4%-1.2%-0.9%-1.5%-0.9%-1.5%-1.8%
Revised From0.8%1.1%0.8%-0.1%-1.1%-0.6%-1.4%N/AN/A-1.6%

Past Releases

Business Inventories m/m
May
13th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-1.0% -1.1% -1.4% -1.3%

For March (s.a.)
Provided by: US Department of Commerce

Inv. y/y: 4.8%, pr. -3.5% (Feb), -1.5% (Jan), 0.9% (Dec), 3.3% (Nov),
4.6% (Oct), 5.5% (Sep), 6.4% (Aug), 6.4% (Jul), 5.6% (Jun), 5.2% (May)
Wholesale Inventories m/m
May
8th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-1.6% -1.1% -1.5% N/A

For March
Release from U.S. Census Bureau
Current Release: PDF

Sales (s.a): -2.4%, pr. 0.6% (Feb), -2.9% (Jan), -3.6% (Dec), -7.1% (Nov),
-4.1% (Oct), -1.5% (Sep), -1.6% (Aug)
Inventories/Sales (s.a): 1.32, pr. 1.31 (Feb), 1.34 (Jan), 1.27 (Dec),
1.25 (Nov), 1.16 (Oct), 1.12 (Sep), 1.10 (Aug)

Business Inventories m/m
April
14th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-1.3% -1.2% -1.3% -1.1%

For February (s.a.)
Provided by: US Department of Commerce

Inv. y/y: -3.5% pr. -1.5% (Jan), 0.9% (Dec), 3.3% (Nov), 4.6% (Oct), 5.5% (Sep),
6.4% (Aug), 6.4% (Jul), 5.6% (Jun), 5.2% (May)

US inventories were scaled down by 1.3% in February as production of motor vehicles is declining. On the year the inventory dropped 3.5%, while sales plunged 13%. The inventory-to-sale ratio has declined to 1.43%, the lowest since November, and shows a quicker pace businesses can empty shelves than in January, when the ratio was 1.45.

Wholesale Inventories m/m
April
8th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-1.5% -0.6% -0.9% N/A

For February
Release from U.S. Census Bureau
Current Release: PDF

Sales (s.a): 0.6%, pr. -2.9% (Jan), -3.6% (Dec), -7.1% (Nov), -4.1% (Oct),
-1.5% (Sep), -1.6% (Aug)
Inventories/Sales (s.a): 1.31, pr. 1.34 (Jan), 1.27 (Dec), 1.25 (Nov),
1.16 (Oct), 1.12 (Sep), 1.10 (Aug)

Sales at wholesalers rose 0.6% in February, the first increase in the last 8 months. The increase in sales contributed to a record drop in inventories, which fell 1.5% in February. A rundown in stockpiles would cause wholesalers to order more goods, which increases economic activity. Wholesalers make up about 25% of all business inventories. The weak inventory growth this quarter will weigh on GDP figures, but if inventoreis are run down, it could give grwoth a boost later in the year.

Business Inventories m/m
March
12th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-1.1% -1.2% -1.6% -1.3%

For January (s.a.)
Provided by: US Department of Commerce

Inv. y/y: -1.5%, pr. 0.9% (Dec), 3.3% (Nov), 4.6% (Oct), 5.5% (Sep),
6.4% (Aug), 6.4% (Jul), 5.6% (Jun), 5.2% (May)

US business inventories fell by 1.1% in January compared to December, a decrease that was slighlty smaller than expected. Sales were down 1%.

Wholesale Inventories m/m
March
10th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-0.7% -1.0% -1.5% -1.4%

For January
Release from U.S. Census Bureau
Current Release: PDF

Sales (s.a): -2.9%, pr. -3.6% (Dec), -7.1% (Nov), -4.1% (Oct), -1.5% (Sep),
-1.6% (Aug)
Inventories/Sales (s.a): 1.30, pr. 1.27 (Dec), 1.25 (Nov), 1.16 (Oct),
1.12 (Sep), 1.10 (Aug)

Sales at US wholesalers fell four times faster than inventories, indicating that businesses will order less goods to replace their stocks which are going out the door at a slower pace. The value of inventories were down 0.7%, while sales slumped 2.9% to $326.1 billion, the lowest level in more than three years. At the current sales pace it would take 1.3 months for wholesalers to sell off their goods. That inventory to sales ration has been rising the last few months. What the data means now is that wholesalers will put in less orders for new goods, further depressing the manufacturing sector. 

Business Inventories m/m
February
12th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-1.3% -0.8% -1.1% -0.7%

For December (s.a.)
Provided by: US Department of Commerce

Inv. y/y: 0.9%, pr. 3.3% (Nov), 4.6% (Oct), 5.5% (Sep), 6.4% (Aug),
6.4% (Jul), 5.6% (Jun), 5.2% (May)

US business inventories fell by 1.3% in December, the biggest monthly drop since 2001. Business sales dropped by 3.2%, following a record 5.7% plunge in November. Businesses cut inventories, in an attempt to adjust for lower demand by consumers amidst the deepening recession. Also, price decreases lower the value of inventories. The inventory-to-sales ration rose to 1.44 from 1.41 in November. 

Wholesale Inventories m/m
February
10th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-1.4% -0.9% -0.9% -0.6%

For December
Release from U.S. Census Bureau
Current Release: PDF

Sales (s.a): -3.6%, pr. -7.1% (Nov), -4.1% (Oct), -1.5% (Sep), -1.6% (Aug)
Inventories/Sales (s.a): pr. 1.25 (Nov), 1.16 (Oct), 1.12 (Sep), 1.10 (Aug)

Business Inventories m/m
January
14th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-0.7% -0.5% -0.6% N/A

For November (s.a.)
Provided by: US Department of Commerce

Inv. y/y: 3.3%, pr. 4.6% (Oct), 5.5% (Sep), 6.4% (Aug), 6.4% (Jul),
5.6% (Jun), 5.2% (May)

Wholesale Inventories m/m
January
9th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-0.6% -0.9% -1.2% -1.1%

For November
Release from U.S. Census Bureau
Official Release: PDF

Sales (s.a): -7.1%, pr. -4.1% (Oct), -1.5% (Sep), -1.6% (Aug)
Inventories/Sales (s.a): 1.25, pr. 1.16 (Oct), 1.12 (Sep), 1.10 (Aug)

From the Release: "Total inventories of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were $435.0 billion at the end of November, down 0.6 percent (+/-0.4%) from the revised October level, but were up 6.3 percent (+/-1.4%) from a year ago. 

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that November 2008 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading-day differences but not for price changes, were $349.2 billion down 7.1 percent (+/-0.4%) from the revised October level and were down 7.6 percent (+/-1.2%) from the November 2007 level."

Business Inventories m/m
December
12th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-0.6% -0.3% -0.4% -0.2%

For October (s.a.)
Provided by: US Department of Commerce

Inv. y/y: 4.6%, pr. 5.5% (Sep), 6.4% (Aug), 6.4% (Jul), 5.6% (Jun),
5.2% (May)

US business inventories fell more than expected during October. Inventories were down 0.6% to a seasonally adjusted $1.497 trillion. Business sales decreased 3.5% on the month bringing the inventory to sales ratio to 1.34 from 1.30 in September. Usually the more stockpiles are run down the more business would buy to replenish their inventory, thus boosting economic activity. However with sales plummeting, companies will most likely try and keep their inventory lean during this holiday shopping season.   

Wholesale Inventories m/m
December
10th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-1.1% -0.2% -0.4% -0.1%

For October
Release from U.S. Census Bureau
Current Release: PDF

Sales (s.a): -4.1%, pr. -1.5% (Sep), -1.6% (Aug)
Inventories/Sales (s.a): 1.16, pr. 1.12 (Sep), 1.10 (Aug)

US wholesale inventories fell 1.1% during October as demand collapsed amid the slumping economy. With consumer spending very weak companies are not carrying large inventories, as they don't want to be holding extra stockpiles following the holiday season. Usually, a decline in inventories means stores are drawing down their stocks and will have to replace them, adding to economic activity. That may not be the case now though as sales of US wholesalers plummeted by 4.1%. With sales down more than inventories the amount of goods on hand relative to sales rose to 1.16 from 1.12.

Business Inventories m/m
November
14th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3%

For September (s.a.)
Provided by: US Department of Commerce

Inv. y/y: 5.5%, pr. 6.4% (Aug), 6.4% (Jul), 5.6% (Jun), 5.2% (May)

US business inventories fell by the most in 3 years in September as firms did not replenish stocks as they saw sales plunge and the economic outlook continue to deteriorate. Usually a rundown of inventory means firms will purchase more goods in order to replenish, thus adding to economic activity, but in this economy that may not be the case. Business sales fell 2.0% following August's downwardly revised 2.2%. So, despite a fall in inventories the inventory-to-sales ratio rose to 1.29 from 1.27 in August. That ratio measures how long in months a firm could sell all current inventory.   

 

Wholesale Inventories m/m
November
7th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-0.1% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8%

For September
Release from U.S. Census Bureau
Current Release: PDF

Sales (s.a): -1.5%,  pr. -1.6%(r)(Aug.)
Inventories/Sales (s.a): 1.12, pr. 1.10(Aug.)

Wholesale inventories edged down by 0.1% to $444.18 billion, while wholesale sales declined 1.5% to a $396.16 billion, pushing the inventory-to-sales ratio up to 1.12 from 1.10. The economic slowdown is hurting sales, and firms are looking to shed stockpiles. 

From the release:
Sales. End-of-month inventories of durable goods were up 0.8 percent (+/-0.5%) from last month and were up 10.2 percent (+/-1.5%) from last September. Inventories of machinery, equipment, and supplies were up 2.0 percent and inventories of electical and electronic goods were up 1.9 percent. End-of-month inventories of nondurable goods decreased 1.4 percent (+/-0.7%) from August, but were up 8.8 percent (+/-3.1%) compared to last September. Inventories of farm product raw materials were down 7.2 percent from last month and inventories of petroleum and petroleum products were down 3.5 percent.
Business Inventories m/m
October
15th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.3% 0.5% 1.1% N/A

For August (s.a.)
Provided by: US Department of Commerce

Inv. y/y: 6.4%, pr. 6.4% (Jul), 5.6% (Jun), 5.2% (May), 5.4% (Apr)

US inventories grew at a slower than expected 0.3% in August, as sales plunged 1.8%. Weaker sales meant firms were reluctant to add to inventories. Usually lower inventories means that firms are selling more and are running down their stocks and increasing economic activity, but that is not the case here. The inventory-to-sales ratio rose to 1.27 from 1.24 in July.

Business Inventories m/m
September
12th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
1.1% 0.5% 0.7% N/A

For July (s.a.)
Provided by: US Department of Commerce

Inv. y/y: 6.4%, pr. 5.6% (Jun), 5.2% (May), 5.4% (Apr), pr. 5.2% (Mar)

Inventories rose by 1.1%, almost double the forecast rate, as companies might be getting stuck with unwanted goods amid a softening economy. The inventory-to-sales ratio climbed to 1.24 from 1.23. The jump can be partially explained by higher auto inventories (+3.2%), as sales in the industry slow amid a weakening economy and cash-strapped consumers.

 

Wholesale Inventories m/m
September
9th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
1.4% 0.7% 0.9% 1.1%

For July
Release from U.S. Census Bureau
Current Release: PDF

US inventories at wholesalers rose 1.4% in July, more than expected, as sales slowed by 0.3%. The number of goods on hand relative to sales edged up in July, the inventory-to-sales ratio rose to 1.07 from a record low of 1.06 in June. That recent low buoyed expectations that wholesalers were having some success managing inventories even as the economy weakened as a result of softening demand.  

From the Release: "Total inventories of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were $441.3 billion at the end of July, up 1.4 percent (+/-0.3%) from the revised June level an  were up 10.6 percent (+/- 1.2%) from a year ago.

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that July 2008 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading-day differences but not for price changes, were $410.6 billion, down 0.3 percent (+/-0.5%)* from the revised June level, but up 16.5 percent (+/-1.0%) from the July 2007 level."

Wholesale Inventories m/m
August
8th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
1.1% 0.6% 0.9% 0.8%

For June
Release from U.S. Census Bureau
Most Current Release: PDF

Inventories held by US wholesalers increased 1.1% in June, nearly doubling expectations. Sales rose 2.8% which brought the inventory-to-sales ratio to 1.06, from 1.08 in May. Thats a new new record low, and means it would take 1.06 months to sell out inventory at the current sales pace. Stocks of autos rose 0.5%, as sales fell. With the amount of inventories rising, wholesalers may be able to meet demand without ordering new goods, which is a drag on economic activity. Today's data though points to inventories keeping up with sales, and not just wholesales stockpiling goods.