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Empire Manufacturing Index
  • USA

Main Indicator: Empire Manufacturing Index

Most Recent Release

May
15th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-3.2 0.1 0.6 N/A

For May
Provided by: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

From the Release:

"The Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that manufacturing activity in New York State deteriorated slightly in May. The general business conditions index fell below zero, to -3.2. The new orders index remained close to zero, and the shipments index, while positive, declined markedly. The prices paid index exceeded its earlier record high by a wide margin, reaching 69.6, while the prices received index dipped several points. Employment indexes hovered near zero. Future indexes were generally low and down from last month's levels, suggesting that the outlook for the next six months remains subdued, particularly for employment."

Table of Past Data

8/159/1710/1511/1512/171/152/153/174/155/15
Actual25.114.728.827.410.39.0-11.7-22.20.6-3.2
Forecast18.018.013.019.520.010.16.5-7.5-17.00.1
Previous26.525.114.728.827.49.89.0-11.7-22.20.6
Revised FromN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A10.3N/AN/AN/AN/A

Past Releases

April
15th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.6 -17.0 -22.2 N/A

For April
Provided by: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

The better than expected report helped to boost the Dollar in early NY trading. 

From the Release:

"The Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that manufacturing activity in New York stabilized in April after deteriorating in February and March. The general business conditions index rose sharply, to 0.6. The new orders and shipments indexes also moved into positive territory, the latter climbing 23 points. The prices paid index advanced to its highest level since late 2005, and the prices received index rose modestly. Employment indexes hovered near zero. Future indexes were generally weaker than in March, and the capital expenditures index, while positive, fell to its lowest level since 2003. "

March
17th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-22.2 -7.5 -11.7 N/A

For March
Release from Federal Reserve Bank of New York

The NY Empire Manufacturing Index plunged to a new record low of -22.2. This is unwelcome news for the area covered by the NY Federal Reserve. Expectations were for an improvement in the indicator. The NY "Empire" Index is one of the timeliest indicators and suggests that the manufacturing sectors is sliding into poor territory, following the Philly Fed Index. With housing in recession, the economy shedding jobs, financial firms sending the stock markets into bear territory, a turndown in manufacturing is just another negative fundamental piled on to the struggling US.   

"The Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions for New York manufacturers deteriorated further in March. The general business conditions index fell another 11½ points to -22.2, a reading that eclipsed the record-low of -19.6 set in November 2001. Although the new orders index rose modestly, the shipments index edged down, and both remained in negative territory. The prices paid index rose for the third consecutive month, reaching its highest level since mid-2006, but the prices received index declined. Employment indexes remained close to zero. Future indexes were generally positive and up slightly for the month, but still well below levels of late last year. However, the future employment indexes rebounded noticeably after falling steeply in February."

February
15th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-11.7 6.5 9.0 N/A

For February
Release from Federal Reserve Bank of New York

"The Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions for New York manufacturers deteriorated in February. The general business conditions index tumbled nearly 21 points to -11.7, falling below zero for the first time since May 2005. The new orders and shipments indexes also dropped into negative territory. The prices paid index rose for a second consecutive month, to its highest level in considerably more than a year, while the prices received index remained elevated but close to January’s level. Employment indexes dipped below zero. Future indexes were generally positive, but well below levels of late last year. In particular, future employment indexes posted significant declines, hovering just above zero.

In response to a series of supplementary questions on exchange rate changes (see Supplemental Report tab), manufacturers generally reported that the depreciation of the dollar had adversely affected their business: although the net effect of the weaker dollar on sales to foreign customers was positive, the effect on domestic sales was on balance somewhat negative. A majority of firms also noted that the change in the dollar exchange rate had negatively affected the prices they paid for materials and other inputs."

 

January
15th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
9.0 10.1 9.8 10.3
For January.
Release from Federal Reserve Bank of New York

The Empire Manufacturing Index declined again, though only by one point, and has fallen below double digits for the first time since April 2007. December's large fall, from 27.4 to 10.3, carried over into January's business conditions, as new orders fell to zero.

From the report:
"The Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions for New York manufacturers improved little in January. After falling in December, the general business conditions index held steady at 9.0. The new orders index fell for a third consecutive month, dropping 13 points to zero. The shipments index weakened mildly, and the unfilled orders index inched above zero. Price indexes remained elevated and were higher than in December. Employment indexes were just above zero. Future indexes conveyed a very muted outlook; many tumbled to near-record lows."
December
17th, 2007
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
10.3 20.0 27.4 N/A
For December
Release from The Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Manufacturing activity in New York for December showed a noticeable deceleration after the business conditions index plummeted 17 points. Shipments fell 11 points to 21.1, new orders declined 10 points to 14.3, unfilled orders down 9 points to -10.0. Finally the delivery time index rose to 5.0, and the inventories index fell to -10.0.

Respondents on average saw a 6.5% increase in prices for goods and services, with similar expectation for 2008. Manufacturers also expect a 4% wage increase in 2008. Outlooks remain positive but subdued.
November
15th, 2007
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
27.4 19.5 28.8 N/A
For November.
New York Federal Reserve Bank

The pace of manufacturing in New York this month held near a three-year high, beating expectations of a larger drop. Tighter access to credit does not seem to be hampering production yet, as a weak dollar is fueling exports.

The outlook in the New York regiong for the next six months fell to 30.5 from 50.6, which is the lowest measures since September 2001. New orders held strong at 24.5 from 25 in October.
October
15th, 2007
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
28.8 13.0 14.7 N/A
For October.

The Manufacturing Survey for the New York area recovered from Septembers drop. The main index rose to 28.8, reported the Federal Reserve Bank of NY. Prices paid stayed at a high level while other sub gauges saw improvements, including new orders and shipments, the number of employees index, prices received, and average work week. The sentiment for six months into the future also proved show NY manufacturers optimistic.
September
17th, 2007
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
14.7 18.0 25.1 N/A
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York released its Manufacturing Index that fell more than expected compared to last month. From 25.1 in August, September’s general business conditions index fell to 14.7. Though the measure is still positive, signifying growth in the manufacturing sector, the close to 10 point fall was deeper than economists’ predictions of a decline to about 18.0.

The pace of new orders and shipments also declined. The new orders index fell to 13.6 in September from 22.2 in August, while the shipments index plunged to 5.1 from 28.8.

The Prices Paid index rose to 35.1 in September from 34.4 in August, and the Prices Received index jumped to 11.7 from 3.23.
August
15th, 2007
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
25.1 18.0 26.5 N/A
for August. New orders and shipments indexes remained at high levels of 22.2 and 28.8 respectively, as unfilled orders remain slightly above at 1.1. Inventories, which dropped sharply last month, rebounded to -2.2. The prices paid index, 34.4 is virtually unchanged. Prices received reached its lowest reading in 2 years, 3.2. Employment index held steady at 11.6. The future business conditions index registered slightly higher than July, at 50.4.

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