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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 2.6% | -1.8% | -1.7% | |||
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For May
Provided by: Halifax Bank Of Scotland Official Release: PDF
House Prices y/y: -16.3%, pr. -17.7% (Apr), -17.5% (Mar), -17.7% (Feb),
From the Release: "There was a 2.6% increase in average UK house prices in May. This rise followed three successive monthly falls of between 1.8% and 2.3%. It is always important not to place too much weight on any one month's figures. Historically, house prices have not moved in the same direction month after month even during a pronounced downturn. For example, prices fell by 11% nationally during 1991 and 1992, but there were five monthly price rises in this period. There are some tentative indications of a possible stabilisation in activity, albeit at a low level. Bank of England industry-wide figures show that the number of mortgages approved to finance house purchase – a leading indicator of completed house sales - increased by 19% between the final quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009, on a seasonally adjusted basis. Approvals in the three months to March were 45% lower than in the same period in 2008. House sales remain substantially below their long term average and market conditions are expected to remain difficult with housing activity continuing at low levels over the coming months."" |
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| 9/4 | 10/9 | 11/6 | 12/4 | 1/2 | 2/5 | 3/5 | 4/3 | 5/6 | 6/4 | ||
| Actual | -1.8% | -1.3% | -2.2% | -2.6% | -2.2% | 1.9% | -2.3% | -1.9% | -1.7% | 2.6% | |
| Forecast | -1.8% | -1.8% | -1.5% | -1.0% | -1.6% | -1.7% | -2.3% | -2.0% | -1.0% | ||
| Previous | -1.7% | -1.8% | -1.3% | -2.4% | -2.7% | -1.6% | 2.0% | -2.3% | -1.9% | -1.8% | |
| Revised From | N/A | N/A | N/A | -2.2% | -2.6% | -2.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | -1.7% | |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -1.7% | -1.0% | -1.9% | N/A | ||
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For April
Provided by: Halifax Bank Of Scotland Official Release: PDF
House Prices y/y: -17.7%, pr. -17.5% (Mar), -17.7% (Feb), -17.2% (Jan),
From the Relase: ""The average UK house price declined by 1.7% in April, slightly less than the 1.9% monthly fall in the previous month. The house price to earnings ratio – a key measure of housing affordability – is at its lowest level since the autumn of 2002 at 4.26. Mortgage rate cuts have reduced monthly payments for the average existing borrower by £111 since October 2008, also boosting affordability. Mortgage approvals remain at historically very low levels. Rising unemployment, low consumer confidence and the reduced availability of credit are all expected to exert downward pressure on the housing market over the next few months. As a result, further house price declines are likely." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -1.9% | -2.0% | -2.3% | N/A | ||
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For March
Provided by: Halifax Bank Of Scotland Official Release: PDF
House Prices y/y: -17.5%, forecast -17.4%, pr. -17.7% (Feb), -17.2% (Jan),
From the Release: ""The average UK house price declined by 1.9% in March. House prices in the first quarter of 2009 were 2.7% lower than in the previous quarter, which was smaller than the 5-6% falls recorded in each of the three previous quarters. Completed sales in England and Wales halved between 2007 and 2008, but there are some very tentative signs that activity may be beginning to stabilise. The latest industry-wide figures show that the number of mortgages approved to finance house purchase in February – a leading indicator of completed house sales - were the highest since May 2008." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -2.3% | -2.3% | 2.0% | N/A | ||
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For February
Provided by: Halifax Bank Of Scotland Official Release: PDF
House Prices y/y: -17.7%, forecast -18.4%, pr. -17.2% (Jan), -16.2% (Dec),
From the Release: "The average UK house price declined by 2.3% in February. This monthly decrease more than offset January's 2.0% increase. Prices in the three months to February compared to the previous quarter, which provides a better indicator of the underlying trend, were 3.6% lower. Whilst market activity remains at very low levels, there are some tentative signs that activity may be beginning to stabilise. The house price to earnings ratio – a key measure of housing affordability – has fallen to its lowest level for six years. Continuing pressures on incomes, rising unemployment and the negative impact of the dislocation of the financial markets on the availability of mortgage finance are, however, likely to mean that 2009 will be another difficult year for the housing market." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 1.9% | -1.7% | -1.6% | -2.2% | ||
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For January
Provided by: Halifax Bank Of Scotland Official Release: PDF
House Prices y/y: -17.2%, forecast -18.4%, pr. -16.2% (Dec), -14.9% (Nov),
From the Release: ""There was a 1.9% increase in average UK house prices in January, offsetting December's 1.6% decline. Prices in the three months to January compared to the preceding three months, which provides a better indicator of the underlying trend, were 5.1% lower. It is always important not to place too much weight on any one month's figures. Historically, house prices have not moved in the same direction month after month even during a pronounced downturn. For example, prices fell for seven successive months in 1989 but subsequently increased in three of the first ten months in 1990 even though the overall trend in prices was downwards. There are some very early signs that market activity may be stabilising, albeit at quite a low level. Nonetheless, continuing pressures on incomes, rising unemployment and the negative impact of the dislocation of the financial markets on the availability of mortgage finance are expected to mean that 2009 will be a difficult year for the housing market." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -2.2% | -1.6% | -2.7% | -2.6% | ||
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For December
Provided by: Halifax Bank Of Scotland Official Release: PDF
House Prices y/y: -16.2%, forecast 16.6%, pr. -14.9% (Nov),
From the Release: "There was a 2.2% decline in average UK house prices in December. Continuing pressures on incomes and the negative impact of the dislocation of the financial markets on the availability of mortgage finance are expected to exert further downward pressure on the market over the coming months. But a number of factors will help to support demand and should help to limit the downturn. Improving housing affordability and an easing in the pressure on the majority of households' finances should support market activity and prices. The house price to earnings ratio - a key affordability measure - is at its lowest for five and a half years." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -2.6% | -1.0% | -2.4% | -2.2% | ||
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For November
Provided by: Halifax Bank Of Scotland Official Release: PDF
House Prices 3m/y: -14.9%, forecast -14.1%, pr. -13.7% (Oct), -12.4% (Sep),
House prices continue to fall in the UK. Prices were down 2.6% in November, and are now almost 15% lower on an annual basis. Such steep price drops should normally bring in more home buyers, but currently, banks are being very tight with their mortgage lending. Also with the UK economy in recession, there is an even smaller pool of people that want to buy homes, despite the discounted prices. Without a stabilization of the housing market, the UK economy will be hard pressed to stage a significant recovery.
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -2.2% | -1.5% | -1.3% | N/A | ||
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For October
Provided by: Halifax Bank Of Scotland Official Release: PDF
House Prices 3m/y: -13.7%, forecast -13.4%, pr. -12.4% (Sep), -10.9% (Aug),
UK housing prices were down 2.2% in October, accelerating the pace of monthly price declines. On a quarterly year-on-year basis prices were down 13.7%, which is the largest fall in the index since its inception in 1983. Halifax calculates the annual figure in terms of quarterly year-on-year change to iron out monthly fluctuations. House prices were 14.9% weaker than they were in the corresponding month last year. Weak mortgage lending has crimped the supply of mortgage financing, which is making the potential pool of home buyers smaller.
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -1.3% | -1.8% | -1.8% | N/A | ||
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For September
House Prices y/y: -12.4%, forecast -12.5%, pr. -10.9% (Aug), -8.8% (Jul),
UK house prices were down 12.4% in annual terms, the steepest decline in 25 years. UK banks have been reluctant to lend the last several months, causing a smaller pool of buyers and has forced sellers to lower prices in order to move their properties. On the month, prices were down 1.3%, which was the smallest monthly fall in 7 months, which means the pace of price declines may be declining. In a separate release the Bank of England showed that mortgage interest rates fell in September to 5.93% from 6.08 in August. It was the 3rd month in a row that rates have decreased, which may help more people to afford mortgage. Whether banks lend is another story. The cut by the Bank of England yesterday should work to lower variable rates as well.
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -1.8% | -1.8% | -1.7% | N/A | ||
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For August
Provided by: Halifax Bank Of Scotland Official Release: PDF
House Prices y/y: -10.9%, forecast -10.7%, pr. -8.8% (Jul), -6.1% (Jun),
House prices fell as expected, and has been at this pace of decline for several months now: June(-1.9%), July(-1.7%). This is a easier pace than the -2.5% in both March and May. Housing prices and activity have been depressed by high prices of fuel and food. Halifax is expressing optimism, noting that a strong labor market should support the housing market. However, employment has started weakening, with claimant count numbers have been increasing since April, and the latest unemployment rate jumped to 5.4%. The continuing decline in house prices and transactions will put pressure on the BoE to cut rates, although the bank is poised to hold for the rest of the year until the inflation storm passes. The British housing bubble was arguably as vulnerable as the American one. Although the subprime meltdown ignited first in the States, the British housing market has caught up to the same degree of slowdown if not worse.
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