For April
Provided by: National Association of Realtors
Official Release: Press Release

Sales y/y: 3.2%, pr.  1.1% (Mar), -1.4% (Feb), -6.4% (Jan), 2.1% (Dec),
-5.3% (Nov), -1.0% (Oct), 1.6% (Sep), 8.8% (Aug), -6.8% (Jul),
-12.3% (Jun), -14.0% (May), -13.1% (Apr)

From the Release: "Record low mortgage interest rates boosted pending home sales for the third consecutive month, with some benefit now from the first-time buyer tax credit, according to the National Association of Realtors.The Pending Home Sales Index,1 a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in April, rose 6.7 percent to 90.3 from a reading of 84.6 in March, and is 3.2 percent above April 2008 when it was 87.5.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said buyers are responding to very favorable market conditions. "Housing affordability conditions have been at historic highs, but now the $8,000 first-time buyer tax credit is beginning to impact the market," he said. "Since first-time buyers must finalize their purchase by November 30 to get the credit, we expect greater activity in the months ahead, and that should spark more sales by repeat buyers."

For March
Provided by: National Association of Realtors
Official Release: Press Release

Sales y/y: 1.1%, pr. -1.4% (Feb), -6.4% (Jan), 2.1% (Dec), -5.3% (Nov),
-1.0% (Oct), 1.6% (Sep), 8.8% (Aug), -6.8% (Jul), -12.3% (Jun),
-14.0% (May), -13.1% (Apr)

From the Release: "Pending home sales rose with many first-time buyers taking advantage of historically good housing affordability conditions, according to the National Association of Realtors^®. The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in March, increased 3.2 percent to 84.6 from a level of 82.0 in February, and is 1.1 percent higher than March 2008 when it was 83.7.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said it should take a few months for the market to gain momentum. “This increase could be the leading edge of first-time buyers responding to very favorable affordability conditions and an $8,000 tax credit, which increases buying power even more in areas where special programs allow buyers to use it as a downpayment,” he said. “We need several months of sustained growth to demonstrate a recovery in housing, which is necessary for the overall economy to turn around.” NAR’s Housing Affordability Index remained near record highs. The affordability index was 166.7 in March – down from an upwardly revised record of 174.4 in February due to higher home prices in March." 

For February
Provided by: National Association of Realtors
Previous Release: Press Release

Sales y/y: -1.4%, pr. -6.4% (Jan), 2.1% (Dec), -5.3% (Nov), -1.0% (Oct),
1.6% (Sep), 8.8% (Aug), -6.8% (Jul), -12.3% (Jun), -14.0% (May),
-13.1% (Apr)

From the Release: "The Pending Home Sales Index,1 a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in February, rose 2.1 percent to 82.1 from a reading of 80.4 in January, but is 1.4 percent below February 2008 when it was 83.3.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the market is continuing to underperform. "Pending home sales have a way to go for there to be a meaningful increase, but recent increases in shopping activity are hopeful indicators that we'll see additional sales gains," he said. "More buyers are getting into the market to take advantage of stimulus incentives and much improved housing affordability conditions, but it will take a few months before we could see this turn up in measurable sales contract activity."

For January
Provided by: National Association of Realtors
Official Release: Press Release

Sales y/y: -6.4%, pr. 2.1% (Dec), -5.3% (Nov), -1.0% (Oct), 1.6% (Sep),
8.8% (Aug), -6.8% (Jul), -12.3% (Jun), -14.0% (May), -13.1% (Apr)

From the Release: "Pending home sales declined on the heels of a weakening economy and with some buyers waiting for clarity on housing stimulus provisions, according to the National Association of Realtors.

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in January, fell 7.7 percent to 80.4 from a downwardly revised reading of 87.1 in December, and is 6.4 percent below January 2008 when it was 85.9. The index is at the lowest level since tracking began in 2001, when the index value was set at 100.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the downturn in the economy also weighed heavily on the data. “Even with many serious potential home buyers on the sidelines waiting for passage of the stimulus bill, job losses and weak consumer confidence were a natural drag on home sales,” he said. “We expect similarly soft home sales in the near term, but buyers are expected to respond to much improved affordability conditions and from the $8,000 first-time buyer tax credit.”

NAR President Charles McMillan, a broker with Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage in Dallas-Fort Worth, said it’s ironic with the weak housing market that affordability conditions have improved dramatically. “Housing affordability is at a record high – the buying power of a typical family has risen significantly,” he said. “With the drop in interest rates, a median-income family can afford a home costing $20,000 more than a year ago for the same monthly mortgage payment. With the strong housing stimulus, we are hopeful inventory will get trimmed and help prices to stabilize in many areas by the end of this year.”

For December
Provided by: National Association of Realtors
Official Release: Press Release

Sales y/y: 2.1%, pr. -5.3% (Nov), -1.0% (Oct), 1.6% (Sep), 8.8% (Aug),
-6.8% (Jul), -12.3% (Jun), -14.0% (May), -13.1% (Apr)

Pending home sales increased a modest 6.3%, beating expectations of flat growth. Last week the NAR reported existing home sales were up as deep discounts and lower mortgage rates got potential buyers off the sidelines. Pending home sales are a leading indicator for existing home sales, so we may be seeing the first signs of a recovery in at least that sector of the housing market. New home sales on the other hand continue to decline. 

From the Release: "Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the index shows a modest rebound. “The monthly gain in pending home sales, spurred by buyers responding to lower home prices and mortgage interest rates, more than offset an index decline in the previous month,” he said. “The biggest gains were in areas with the biggest improvements in affordability.”

NAR’s Housing Affordability index rose 10.9 percent in December to 158.8, the highest on record.² The HAI shows that the relationship between home prices, mortgage interest rates and family income is the most favorable since tracking began in 1970.

“Significant uncertainty still clouds the housing market despite improved affordability conditions. For a sustainable housing market recovery and, hence, sustainable economic recovery, we need a significant housing stimulus and mortgage availability for qualified borrowers,” Yun added."

For November
Provided by: National Association of Realtors
Official Release: Press Release

Sales y/y: -5.3%, pr. -1.0% (Oct), 1.6% (Sep), 8.8% (Aug), -6.8% (Jul),
-12.3% (Jun), -14.0% (May), -13.1% (Apr)

Pending home sales, a gauge used to help predict future home-sales activity saw a steep drop in November, blowing away forecasts estimates of a 0.9% decline. Also, October's data was revised sharply down to show a 4.2% drop from the original 0.7%. That put the overall index at its lowest level since the data series began in 2001.

From the Release: "The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in November, fell 4.0 percent to 82.3 from a downwardly revised reading of 85.7 in October, and is 5.3 percent below November 2007 when it was 86.9. The current index is the lowest since the series began in 2001. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said a weakening was inevitable. “Mounting job losses and very weak consumer confidence deterred home buyers from signing contracts in November,” he said. “December’s housing market activity could be comparably lower due to ongoing problems in the economy, so a real estate-focused stimulus plan is urgently needed.”

Yun said the outlook will depend heavily on the stimulus package. “With a proper real-estate focused stimulus measure, home sales could rise more than expected, by more than 10 percent to 5.5 million in 2009, and easily begin to stabilize home prices in many parts of the country. Stable home prices will, in turn, lessen foreclosure pressures and lay the foundations for a solid economic recovery as the nation’s 75 million homeowners regain confidence,” he said. The impact of mortgage interest rates declining to near 50-year lows in December is not reflected in current data."

For October
Provided by: National Association of Realtors
Official Release: Press Release

Sales y/y: -1.0%, pr. 1.6% (Sep), 8.8% (Aug), -6.8% (Jul), -12.3% (Jun),
-14.0% (May), -13.1% (Apr)

From the Release: "Pending home sales eased against a deteriorating economic backdrop but remain in a stable range, according to the National Association of Realtors. The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in October, slipped 0.7 percent to 88.9 from an upwardly revised reading of 89.5 in September, and is 1.0 percent below October 2007 when it was 89.8.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said a review of the past year is instructive. “Despite the turmoil in the economy, the overall level of pending home sales has been remarkably stable over the past year, holding in a generally narrow range,” he said. “We did see a spike in August when mortgage conditions temporarily improved, which underscores two things – there is a pent-up demand, and access to safe, affordable mortgages will bring more buyers into the market.”

For September
Provided by: National Association of Realtors
Official Release: Press Release

Sales y/y: 1.6%, pr. 8.8% (Aug), -6.8% (Jul), -12.3% (Jun),
-14.0% (May), -13.1% (Apr) 

Pending home sales reversed some of their gains from August, as sales were down 4.6% in September. Still the year over year figure remained positive for a second straight month, which may mean there is some stabilization. On the downside tight credit conditions and deteriorating economic conditions continue to take their toll on the housing market.  

From the Release: "Pending home sales fell on the heels of a strong gain a month earlier as credit tightened and economic conditions deteriorated, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in September, declined 4.6 percent to 89.2 from an upwardly revised reading of 93.5 in August, but is 1.6 percent higher than September 2007 when it stood at 87.8.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said pending sales have been above year-ago levels for two months in a row. "The month-to-month weakening in pending home sales is understandable, but because the index remains above year-ago levels it means we're still in a broad period of stabilization," he said. "Conditions remain mixed around the country, but markets that are showing annual sales gains include Long Island, N.Y.; Boston; Minneapolis; Denver and Washington, D.C., in addition to consistent solid gains in California and Florida."

For August
Provided by: National Association of Realtors
Previous Release: Press Release

Sales y/y: 8.8%, pr. -6.8% (Jul), -12.3% (Jun), -14.0% (May), -13.1% (Apr)

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) as measured by the National Association of Realtors posted a surprising 7.4% rise putting the seasonally adjusted index at 93.4 from 87.0 in July. This is the highest level since June 2007, where the index hit 101.4. Lawrence Yun attributes the rise to the more affordable home prices and declining mortgage rates after Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were nationalized.

It should be noted that this is a measure of pending home sales. It may be valid to expect more closing problems than usual with the latest bout of credit squeeze.