Seasonally adjusted annual rate for April
Provided by: National Association of Realtors
Official Release: Press Release
Official Release: PDF

Pending Home Sales y/y: -13.1%

The seasonal rebound in home sales seem to be preceding expectations, as the NAR showed a rush of home buyers. The NAR forecasted a flat spring followed by recovery in summer. The South and Western regions saw these gains, while the Northeast and Midwest regions continue to see decline. It doesn't seem plausible that these are all buyers for home ownership, so the increase probably has a large component of investors who find house prices to be at bargain rates.

Seasonally adjusted annual rate for March
Provided by: National Association of Realtors
Official Release: Press Release

Pending home sales, a forward looking indicator for the housing market, continued to decline in March, as expected. Since March of 2007, the figures fell 20.1%. The decline should be flat or lighter in the Spring months as this is usually a period of recovery in the housing market. Then summer months should bring some positive figures.

After a correction to start the week, the greenback is continuing its strength. The Fed pause is essentially locked in, and inflation is becoming more significant and further limits the posibility of a Fed cut.

From the Release:

"A flat pattern in home sales activity should continue for the next couple months before improving over the summer, according to the latest forecast by the National Association of Realtors®.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the extent of an expected recovery hinges on better access to affordable loans. "Things are beginning to improve, but the availability of affordable mortgages is uneven around the country and sometimes within metropolitan areas," he said. "As anticipated, we continue to look for a soft first half of the year, for both housing and the economy, before notable improvements in the second half. Some time is needed for FHA and new conforming jumbo loans to become widely available."

The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in March, edged down 1.0 percent to 83.0 from a downwardly revised level of 83.8 in February, and was 20.1 percent lower than the March 2007 index of 103.9."

Seasonally adjusted annual rate for February
Provided by: National Association of Realtors

The number of pending home sales, contracts to buy previously owned homes, declined 1.9% in February. Its an indication that the housing market recession continues, and the bottom is not here yet. The likely outcome is that housing prices continue to fall in the US and the Fed will remain pressured to continue its campaign of lowering interest rates.

Seasonally adjusted annual rate for January
Provided by: National Association of Realtors

"The volume of existing-home sales is expected to hold steady through late spring, with a gradual recovery during the second half of the year as the mortgage situation improves in high-cost areas, according to the latest forecast by the National Association of Realtors®. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said many buyers have been waiting for higher mortgage loan limits. “The higher loan limits for both FHA and conventional loans will increase consumer choice and provide greater access to lower interest rate mortgages in high-cost regions,” he said. “Therefore, a notable rise in home sales can be anticipated in the second half of the year."

Pending Home Sales recorded a flat reading for January, surprising forecasts. December's total was revised up slightly as well. The recession in the housing market has fueled many of the problems in the US economy and the credit crunch that has reverberated around the world. A recovery in the housing sector would go a long way in helping to turn the tide of recent malaise in the US. Another month or two of flat or increasing pending home sales may suggest that the housing recession has hit a bottom, and that it may recover as we get later into 2008. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported today however that US mortgage foreclosures rose to an all-time high at the end of 2007. 

Seasonally adjusted annual rate for December
Provided by: National Association of Realtors
Official Release

"The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in December, slipped 1.5 percent to a reading of 85.9 from a downwardly revised index of 87.2 in November, and was 24.2 percent below the December 2006 level of 113.3. “We’re seeing a pattern that is consistent with skimming along the bottom of the cycle, and sales could ease modestly,” Yun said."

A continuation of soft market conditions is forecast for existing-home sales in the months ahead, with improvement expected by the second half of this year if loan limits are increased, according to the latest forecast by the National Association of Realtors®.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said sales activity is expected to remain soft through the first half of the year despite a generational low in mortgage interest rates. “Household formation was only half of what it should have been last year given the demographics of a growing population and sustained job growth, so there clearly is a pent-up demand from buyers who are on the sidelines,” he said.

“Existing-home sales have moved narrowly since last September, but when the full impact of higher loan limits for conventional mortgages begins to impact the market there is likely to be a notable rise in home sales and prices. If higher limits are enacted very quickly, we’ll see a faster and more meaningful recovery by expanding safe, affordable financing in high-cost areas – that, in turn, would help to stimulate overall economic activity.”