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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -7.6% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 1.0% | ||
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For January
Sales y/y: pr. 10.9% (Dec), 15.5% (Nov), 31.8% (Oct), 21.1% (Sep),
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| 6/2 | 7/1 | 8/4 | 9/1 | 10/1 | 11/2 | 12/1 | 1/5 | 2/2 | 3/4 | ||
| Actual | 6.7% | 0.1% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 3.7% | -16.0% | 1.0% | -7.6% | |
| Forecast | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.3% | -0.2% | -2.5% | 0.0% | 1.6% | |
| Previous | 3.2% | 7.1% | 0.1% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 3.7% | -16.0% | 0.8% | |
| Revised From | N/A | 6.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1.0% | |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 1.0% | 0.0% | -16.0% | N/A | ||
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For December
Sales y/y: 10.9%, pr. 15.5% (Nov), 31.8% (Oct), 21.1% (Sep),
A gauge for forecasting existing home sales rose by 1% to 96.6 in December, a signal that the housing market may be steadying after some sharp swings as a result of a government tax credit. The index was expected to be flat, and follows a very sharp 16.0% decline in November. One week ago, data came out showing existing home sales down 16.7% in December. The plunge followed strong incentives by a government subsidy which was due to run out November 30th. It was extended and expanded, through April 2010. Therefore the swings could have been anticipated. On the year, the NAR pending home sales index was 10.9% higher. In 2009, the housing market was boosted by the tax credit as well as low prices and mortgage rates, however on the downside the market is fighting high unemployment and difficulty in getting loans. NAR projections for this year is a existing home sales of 5.66 million and 5.70 million in 2011, which compares to 5.19 million in 2009. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -16.0% | -2.5% | 3.7% | N/A | ||
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For November
Sales y/y: 15.5%, pr. 31.8% (Oct), 21.1% (Sep), 12.1% (Aug),
From the release: "Contract activity for pending home sales fell after a surge of activity in preceding months to beat the original deadline for the first-time home buyer tax credit but remains comfortably above a year ago. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said a drop was expected. "It will be at least early spring before we see notable gains in sales activity as home buyers respond to the recently extended and expanded tax credit," he said. "The fact that pending home sales are comfortably above year-ago levels shows the market has gained sufficient momentum on its own. We expect another surge in the spring as more home buyers take advantage of affordable housing conditions before the tax credit expires." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 3.7% | -0.2% | 6.1% | N/A | ||
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For October
Sales y/y: 31.8%, pr. 21.1% (Sep), 12.1% (Aug), 12.0% (Jul),
Pending home sales jumped 3.7% in October, a figure that beat expectations, and is the 9th straight month that pending home sales have risen. The index rose to 114.1 which is the highest level in more than three years. The year-over-year increase, at 31.8%, is also the largest in the history of the index which goes back to 2001. Still, seasonal factors and the continuing stress in the labor market can work to temper the market's growth. Pending sales are those where a contract has been signed but the transaction hasn't closed, as there is a one or two month window between signing and purchasing, so it is used as a leading indicator for home sales.
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 6.1% | 0.3% | 6.4% | N/A | ||
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For September
Sales y/y: 21.1%, pr. 12.1% (Aug), 12.0% (Jul), 6.7% (Jun),
From the Release: "Pending home sales rose again, marking eight consecutive monthly gains – the longest streak since measurement began in 2001, according to the National Association of Realtors. The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in September, rose 6.1 percent to 110.1 from a reading of 103.8 in August, and is 21.2 percent higher than September 2008 when it stood at 90.9. The gain from a year ago is the largest annual increase on record, and the index is at the highest level since December 2006 when it was 112.8. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the momentum is understandable. “What we’re witnessing is a rush of first-time buyers trying to beat the expiration of the tax credit at the end of this month,” he said. “Home values will stabilize sooner rather than over-correcting. That, in turn, will mean wealth stabilization for the vast number of middle-class families and lay the foundation for a durable economic recovery.” |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 6.4% | 0.9% | 3.2% | N/A | ||
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For August
Sales y/y: pr. 12.1%, pr. 12.0% (Jul), 6.7% (Jun), 6.7% (May),
From the Release: "Pending home sales have increased for seven straight months, the longest in the series of the index which began in 2001, according to the National Association of Realtors®. The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in August, rose 6.4 percent to 103.8 from a reading of 97.6 in July, and is 12.4 percent above August 2008 when it was 92.4. The index is at the highest level since March 2007 when it was 104.5. NAR chief economist, said not all contracts are turning into closed sales within an expected timeframe. “The rise in pending home sales shows buyers are returning to the market and signing contracts, but deals are not necessarily closing because of long delays related to short sales, and issues regarding complex new appraisal rules,” he said. “No doubt many first-time buyers are rushing to beat the deadline for the $8,000 tax credit, which expires at the end of next month.” |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 3.2% | 1.7% | 3.6% | N/A | ||
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For July
Sales y/y: 12.0%, pr. 6.7% (Jun), 6.7% (May), 3.2% (Apr),
From the Release: "Contract activity for pending home sales has risen for six straight months, a pattern not seen in the history of the index since it began in 2001, according to the National Association of Realtors. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the housing market momentum has clearly turned for the better. "The recovery is broad-based across many parts of the country. Housing affordability has been at record highs this year with the added stimulus of a first-time buyer tax credit," he said. " |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 3.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | N/A | ||
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For June
Sales y/y: 6.7%, pr. 3.2% (Apr), 1.1% (Mar), -1.4% (Feb),
From the Release: "Pending home sales are up for the fifth consecutive month, the first time in six years for such a streak, according to the National Association of Realtors®. The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in June, rose 3.6 percent to 94.6 from an upwardly revised reading of 91.3 in May, and is 6.7 percent above June 2008 when it was 88.7. The last time there were five consecutive monthly gains was in July 2003. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said a combination of positive market factors is fueling the gains. "Historically low mortgage interest rates, affordable home prices and large selection are encouraging buyers who've been on the sidelines. Activity has been consistently much stronger for lower priced homes," he said. "Because it may take as long as two months to close on a home after signing a contract, first-time buyers must act fairly soon to take advantage of the $8,000 tax credit because they must close on the sale by November 30." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.1% | 0.7% | 7.1% | 6.7% | ||
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For May
Sales y/y: pr. 3.2% (Apr), 1.1% (Mar), -1.4% (Feb), -6.4% (Jan),
Pending home sales rose 0.1% in May, a 4th straight month that sales were up, but the figure came in lower than expected, and at a much lower rate than the 6.7% increase seen in April. The positive four-month trend is being sustained by favorable housing affordability and a first-time buyer tax credit. The Housing Affordability Index remains at historic highs. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 6.7% | 0.4% | 3.2% | N/A | ||
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For April
Sales y/y: 3.2%, pr. 1.1% (Mar), -1.4% (Feb), -6.4% (Jan), 2.1% (Dec),
From the Release: "Record low mortgage interest rates boosted pending home sales for the third consecutive month, with some benefit now from the first-time buyer tax credit, according to the National Association of Realtors.The Pending Home Sales Index,1 a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in April, rose 6.7 percent to 90.3 from a reading of 84.6 in March, and is 3.2 percent above April 2008 when it was 87.5. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said buyers are responding to very favorable market conditions. "Housing affordability conditions have been at historic highs, but now the $8,000 first-time buyer tax credit is beginning to impact the market," he said. "Since first-time buyers must finalize their purchase by November 30 to get the credit, we expect greater activity in the months ahead, and that should spark more sales by repeat buyers." |
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