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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 5.05M | 5.51M | 5.44M | 5.45M | ||
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For January
Sales m/m: -7.2%, pr. -16.7% (Dec), 7.4% (Nov), 10.1% (Oct),
Median Home Price: pr. $164,700, $178,300 (Dec),
From the Release: "Existing-home sales fell in January but are above year-ago levels, according to the National Association of Realtors. Existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – dropped 7.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate1 of 5.05 million units in January from a revised 5.44 million in December, but remain 11.5 percent above the 4.53 million-unit level in January 2009. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said there is still some delay between shopping and closing that affected current sales. “Most of the completed deals in January were based on contracts in November and December. People who got into the market after the home buyer tax credit was extended in November have only recently started to offer contracts, so it will take a couple months to close those sales,” he said. “Still, the latest monthly sales decline is not encouraging, and raises concern about the strength of a recovery.” |
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| 5/27 | 6/23 | 7/23 | 8/21 | 9/24 | 10/23 | 11/23 | 12/22 | 1/25 | 2/26 | ||
| Actual | 4.68M | 4.77M | 4.89M | 5.24M | 5.10M | 5.57M | 6.10M | 6.54M | 5.45M | 5.05M | |
| Forecast | 4.65M | 4.82M | 4.80M | 5.03M | 5.36M | 5.39M | 5.71M | 6.29M | 5.95M | 5.51M | |
| Previous | 4.55M | 4.66M | 4.72M | 4.89M | 5.24M | 5.10M | 5.54M | 6.09M | 6.54M | 5.44M | |
| Revised From | 4.57M | 4.68M | 4.77M | N/A | N/A | N/A | 5.57M | 6.10M | N/A | 5.45M | |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 5.45M | 5.95M | 6.54M | N/A | ||
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For December
Sales m/m: -16.7%, pr. 7.4% (Nov), 10.1% (Oct), 8.8% (Sep),
Median Home Price: $178,300, pr. $172,600 (Dec), $173,100 (Oct),
From the Release: "Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said there were no surprises in the data. “It’s significant that home sales remain above year-ago levels, but the market is going through a period of swings driven by the tax credit,” he said. “We’ll likely have another surge in the spring as home buyers take advantage of the extended and expanded tax credit. By early summer the overall market should benefit from more balanced inventory, and sales are on track to rise again in 2010. However, the job market remains a concern and could dampen the housing recovery – job creation is key to a continued recovery in the second half of the year.” |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 6.54M | 6.29M | 6.09M | 6.10M | ||
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For November
Sales m/m: 7.4%, pr. 10.1% (Oct), 8.8% R- (Sep), -2.7% (Aug),
Median Home Price: $172,600, pr. $173,100 (Oct), $174,900 (Sep),
Sales of existing homes rose 7.4% in November to a 6.54 million annual rate, the highest reading since February 2007, and a figure that beat expectations which called for a 2.5% increase to 6.35 million units. The data follows a large 10% jump in October when there was a big rush to close deals as potential home buyers faced the looming expiration of the government’s $8,000 tax credit, which was subsequently extended till June. Today’s data showed that the expiration of the tax credit which was originally scheduled for November 30th helped boost sales in November as well. The extension of the tax credit, low mortgage rates, and cheaper homes should help to continue to drive sales, though there might be some let up due to seasonal factors before another increase in selling activity in the spring time. The inventory of unsold homes on teh market declined 1.3% to 3.52 million, representing a 6.5 month supply at the November sales pace, which is the lowest supply in three years, while the median sales price in November was $172,600, down 4.3% compared to a year ago, which was the smallest year-over-year decline in two years. A high rate of foreclosures has been pressuring housing prices on the downside. The recovery in the housing market will depend on how the labor market fares. Last month’s non-farm payroll report increased optimism among economists and traders that the US economy may begin to start printing positive job growth perhaps even this month. From the Release: “Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the rise was expected. “This clearly is a rush of first-time buyers not wanting to miss out on the tax credit, but there are many more potential buyers who can enter the market in the months ahead,” he said. “We expect a temporary sales drop while buying activity ramps up for another surge in the spring when buyers take advantage of the expanded tax credit, which hopefully will take us into a self-sustaining market in the second half of 2010. In all, 4.4 million households are expected to claim the tax credit before it expires and balance should be restored to the housing sector with inventories continuing to decline. According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage fell to 4.88 percent in November from 4.95 percent in October; the rate was 6.09 percent in November 2008. Last month’s mortgage interest rate was the second lowest on record after bottoming at 4.81 percent in April 2009.” The figure for new home sales comes out tomorrow and will show how that portion of the housing market, which can be an even more timely barometer of the market, performed in November. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 6.10M | 5.71M | 5.54M | 5.57M | ||
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For October
Sales m/m: 10.1%, forecast 2.3%, pr. 8.8% R- (Sep), -2.7% (Aug),
Median Home Price: $173,100, pr. $174,900 (Sep), $177,700 (Aug),
Sales of existing homes rose surged 10.1% to a seasonal adjusted annual rate of 6.10 million units as there was a rush of people closing housing deals before the expiration of the first federal tax credit. The figures blew away forecasts, and with the expansion of the tax credit passed by Congress, there may be further recovery in the housing market as a result. Inventories decreased by 3.7% to 3.57 million, which represented a 7.0 month supply at the current sales pace, which compared to a 8.0 reading in September. The median price of an existing home was 7.1% lower compared to the previous year, as buyers were able to negotiate steep price cuts before purchasing. Distressed properties accounted for 30% of sales, which continue to downwardly distort the median price. Today's report is a welcome sign for the housing market following weak housing starts data last week.
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 5.57M | 5.39M | 5.10M | N/A | ||
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For September
Sales m/m: 9.4%, forecast 5.9%, pr. -2.7% (Aug), 7.2% (Jul),
Median Home Price: $174,900, pr. $177,700 (Aug), $178,400,
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 5.10M | 5.36M | 5.24M | N/A | ||
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For August
Sales m/m: -2.7%, pr. 7.2% (Jul), 3.6% (Jun), 1.3% (May),
Median Home Price: $177,700, pr. $178,400, $181,800 (Jun),
From the Release: Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the tax credit is working. "Home sales retrenched from a very strong improvement in July but continue to be much higher than before the stimulus. The first-time buyer tax credit is having the intended impact of bringing buyers into the market, allowing them to take advantage of very favorable affordability conditions," he said. "Some of the give-back in closed sales appears to result from rising numbers of contracts entering the system, with some fallouts and a backlog contributing to a longer closing process, but the decline demonstrates we can't take a housing rebound for granted." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 5.24M | 5.03M | 4.89M | N/A | ||
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For July
Sales m/m: 7.2%, forecast 2.3%, 3.6% (Jun), 1.3% (May), 2.9% (Apr),
Median Home Price: $178,400, pr. $181,800 (Jun), $174,700 (May),
Sales of existing homes surged 7.2% in July to a 5.24 million annual rate, a figure that surprised forecasts on the upside. It's the highest level of existing sales in almost two years, and shows that the recession in the housing market may be easing. The market is being lubricated by falling housing prices, with the median price down 15% compared to a year ago, government credits for first-time buyers, and low borrowing costs. There is still a large supply of unsold existing homes, with the inventory to sales ratio at 9.4. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 4.89M | 4.80M | 4.72M | 4.77M | ||
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For June
Provided by: National Association of Realtors Official Release: News Release
Sales m/m: 3.6%, forecast 1.5%, pr. 1.3% R (May), 2.9% (Apr),
Median Home Price: $181,800, pr. $170,200 (Apr), $175,200 (Mar),
From the Release: "Existing-home sales - including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops - increased 3.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate1 of 4.89 million units in June from a downwardly revised pace of 4.72 million in May, but are 0.2 percent lower than the 4.90 million-unit level in June 2008. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, is hopeful about the gain. "The increase in existing-home sales occurred in all major regions of the country," he said. "We expect a gradual uptrend in sales to continue due to tax credit incentives and historically high affordability conditions. Despite the rise in closed transactions, many Realtors® are reporting lost sales as a result of new appraisal standards that went into effect May 1 of this year." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 4.77M | 4.82M | 4.66M | 4.68M | ||
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For May
Provided by: National Association of Realtors Official Release: News Release
Sales m/m: 2.4%, pr. 2.9% (Apr), -3.0% (Mar) 5.1% (Feb),
Median Home Price: pr. $170,200 (Apr), $175,200 (Mar),
From the Release: "Sales of existing homes showed another gain in May, benefiting from favorable affordability conditions and a first-time buyer tax credit, according to the National Association of Realtors®. May’s increase was the first back-to-back monthly gain since September 2005. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, expected an improvement. "Historically low mortgage interest rates clearly drew buyers into the market, and housing remains very affordable even with a recent uptick in rates," he said. "First-time buyers also are being drawn off the sidelines by the $8,000 tax credit, which is helping to absorb inventory. However, the increase in sales is less than expected because poor appraisals are stalling transactions. Pending home sales indicated much stronger activity, but some contracts are falling through from faulty valuations that keep buyers from getting a loan." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 4.68M | 4.65M | 4.55M | 4.57M | ||
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For April
Provided by: National Association of Realtors Official Release: News Release
Sales m/m: 2.9%, pr. -3.0% (Mar) 5.1% (Feb), -5.3% (Jan),
Median Home Price: $170,200, pr. $175,200 (Mar), $165,400 (Feb),
Existing home sales rose in April, the second month out of three that sales were higher as bargain hunters took advantage of low prices and foreclosure auctions to purchase homes. That is an indication that the market may have reached a bottom in terms of prices which should result in higher sales going forward. If that is the case, then there's a chance that the current glut of unsold homes can dwindle helping to end the slump in property values.
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