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Indicator Digest

Existing Home Sales
Measures the number of sales of previously constructed homes, condominium and co-ops closed during the month. Existing homes account for a larger sector of the housing market than new homes. Purchases of homes have economic effects on realtors, mortgage lenders and furnishings companies. In the US, the report's figures are annualized, meaning it is a projection for a full year.
  • USA

Main Indicator: Existing Home Sales

Most Recent Release

June
23rd, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
4.77M 4.82M 4.66M 4.68M
For May
Provided by: National Association of Realtors
Official Release: News Release

Sales m/m: 2.4%, pr. 2.9% (Apr), -3.0% (Mar) 5.1% (Feb),
-5.3% (Jan), 6.5% (Dec),-9.4% (Nov), -3.1% (Oct), 4.7% (Sep),
-2.2% (Aug), 3.1% (Jul), -2.6% (Jun)

Median Home Price: pr. $170,200 (Apr), $175,200 (Mar),
$165,400 (Feb), $170,300 (Jan), $175,400 (Dec), $181,300 (Nov),
$183,300 (Oct), $191,600 (Sep), $203,100 (Aug), $212,400 (Jul)

From the Release: "Sales of existing homes showed another gain in May, benefiting from favorable affordability conditions and a first-time buyer tax credit, according to the National Association of Realtors®. May’s increase was the first back-to-back monthly gain since September 2005.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, expected an improvement. "Historically low mortgage interest rates clearly drew buyers into the market, and housing remains very affordable even with a recent uptick in rates," he said. "First-time buyers also are being drawn off the sidelines by the $8,000 tax credit, which is helping to absorb inventory. However, the increase in sales is less than expected because poor appraisals are stalling transactions. Pending home sales indicated much stronger activity, but some contracts are falling through from faulty valuations that keep buyers from getting a loan." 

Table of Past Data

9/2410/2411/2412/231/262/253/234/235/276/23
Actual4.91M5.18M4.98M4.49M4.74M4.49M4.72M4.57M4.68M4.77M
Forecast4.93M4.95M5.05M4.90M4.40M4.80M4.45M4.66M4.65M4.82M
Previous5.02M4.91M5.14M4.98M4.45M4.74M4.49M4.71M4.55M4.66M
Revised From5.00MN/A5.18MN/A4.49MN/AN/A4.72M4.57M4.68M

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Past Releases

May
27th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
4.68M 4.65M 4.55M 4.57M
For April
Provided by: National Association of Realtors
Official Release: News Release

Sales m/m: 2.9%, pr. -3.0% (Mar) 5.1% (Feb), -5.3% (Jan),
6.5% (Dec),-9.4% (Nov), -3.1% (Oct), 4.7% (Sep), -2.2% (Aug),
3.1% (Jul), -2.6% (Jun)

Median Home Price: $170,200, pr. $175,200 (Mar), $165,400 (Feb),
$170,300 (Jan), $175,400 (Dec), $181,300 (Nov), $183,300 (Oct),
$191,600 (Sep), $203,100 (Aug), $212,400 (Jul), $215,100 (Jun)

Existing home sales rose in April, the second month out of three that sales were higher as bargain hunters took advantage of low prices and foreclosure auctions to purchase homes. That is an indication that the market may have reached a bottom in terms of prices which should result in higher sales going forward. If that is the case, then there's a chance that the current glut of unsold homes can dwindle helping to end the slump in property values. 

From the Release: Existing-home sales rose in April with strong buyer activity in lower price ranges, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Existing-home sales - including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops - increased 2.9 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.68 million units in April from a downwardly revised pace of 4.55 million units in March, but were 3.5 percent below the 4.85 million-unit level in April 2008.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said first-time buyers continue to influence the market but there also is a seasonal rise of repeat buyers. "Most of the sales are taking place in lower price ranges and activity is beginning to pick up in the midprice ranges, but high-end home sales remain sluggish," he said. "The Federal Reserve needs to help restore liquidity for the jumbo mortgage market by buying these loans under the TALF program."

April
23rd, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
4.57M 4.66M 4.71M 4.72M
For March
Provided by: National Association of Realtors
Official Release: News Release

Sales m/m: -3.0%, forecast -1.5%, pr. 5.1% (Feb), -5.3% (Jan),
6.5% (Dec),-9.4% (Nov), -3.1% (Oct), 4.7% (Sep), -2.2% (Aug),
3.1% (Jul), -2.6% (Jun)

Median Home Price: $$175,200, pr. $165,400 (Feb), $170,300 (Jan),
$175,400 (Dec), $181,300 (Nov), $183,300 (Oct), $191,600 (Sep),
$203,100 (Aug), $212,400 (Jul), $215,100 (Jun)

From the Release: "Existing-home sales eased in March but first-time buyers are responding to low mortgage interest rates and tax credits, according to the National Association of Realtors. Existing-home sales - including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops - declined 3.0 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate1 of 4.57 million units in March from a downwardly revised level of 4.71 million in February, and were 7.1 percent lower than the 4.92 million-unit pace in March 2008.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the market appears to be stabilizing with modest monthly ups and downs, and that first-time buyers are driving the market. "The share of lower priced home sales has trended up, indicating a return of many first-time buyers, which we also see in a parallel member survey," he said. "Sales in the upper price ranges remain stalled because of higher interest rates on jumbo loans."

March
23rd, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
4.72M 4.45M 4.49M N/A
For February
Provided by: National Association of Realtors
Official Release: News Release

Sales m/m: 5.1%, forecast -0.9%, pr. -5.3% (Jan), 6.5% (Dec),
-9.4% (Nov), -3.1% (Oct), 4.7% (Sep), -2.2% (Aug), 3.1% (Jul),
-2.6% (Jun)

Median Home Price: $165,400, pr. $170,300 (Jan), $175,400 (Dec),
$181,300 (Nov), $183,300 (Oct), $191,600 (Sep), $203,100 (Aug),
$212,400 (Jul), $215,100 (Jun)

Existing home sales surprised forecasts of a slight decline in February, jumping 5.1% to an annual pace of 4.72 million units. That follows better than expected housing starts numbers last week and the two together can be a sign that the low mortgage rates recently are finding willing takers. The data showed that first-time buyers accounted for half of all home sales last month, with most going after distressed homes or those with heavy discount in prices.

From the Release: "Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said first-time buyers accounted for half of all home sales last month, with activity concentrated in lower price ranges. “Because entry level buyers are shopping for bargains, distressed sales accounted for 40 to 45 percent of transactions in February,” he said. “Our analysis shows that distressed homes typically are selling for 20 percent less than the normal market price, and this naturally is drawing down the overall median price.

Yun said a recovery in the West is much stronger than expected. “Strong sales gains in the West are led by California, where the median listing price is beginning to rise for the first time in three years,” he said.”

February
25th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
4.49M 4.80M 4.74M N/A
For January
Provided by: National Association of Realtors
Official Release: News Release

Sales m/m: -5.3%, forecast 1.3%, pr. 6.5% (Dec), -9.4% (Nov),
-3.1% (Oct), 4.7% (Sep), -2.2% (Aug), 3.1% (Jul), -2.6% (Jun)

Median Home Price: $170,300, pr. $175,400 (Dec), pr. $181,300 (Nov),
$183,300 (Oct), $191,600 (Sep), $203,100 (Aug), $212,400 (Jul),
$215,100 (Jun)

From the Release: "Existing-home sales declined in January with some buyers waiting to see how details of the economic stimulus package would affect them, according to the National Association of Realtors. At the same time, inventories fell to a two-year low.

Existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – fell 5.3 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.49 million units in January from a level of 4.74 million units in December, and are 8.6 percent lower the 4.91 million-unit pace in January 2008.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said there was understandable hesitation by some home buyers. “Given so much stimulus package discussion in January, some would-be buyers simply sat out for clarity and certainty on the nature of housing stimulus,” he said. “The housing market will soon get a lift from very favorable buying conditions – not only from improved affordability, but also from the stimulus of an $8,000 first-time home buyer tax credit, and higher conforming loan limits that will allow more people to tap into 50-year low mortgage rates.”

NAR estimates the impact of the stimulus package and lower interest rates on the housing market to be about 900,000 additional home sales in 2009 compared to conditions before the stimulus package. Inventory is expected to fall below an 8-month supply by the year end, which would be consistent with home price stabilization."

 

January
26th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
4.74M 4.40M 4.45M 4.49M
For December
Provided by: National Association of Realtors
Official Release: News Release

Sales m/m: 6.5%, forecast -2.0%, pr. -9.4% (rev from -8.6%, Nov),
-3.1% (Oct), 4.7% (Sep), -2.2% (Aug), 3.1% (Jul), -2.6% (Jun)

Median Home Price: $175,400, pr. $181,300 (Nov), $183,300 (Oct),
$191,600 (Sep), $203,100 (Aug), $212,400 (Jul), $215,100 (Jun)

Existing home sales surprised forecasts and increased 6.5%, to an annual rate of 4.74 million. The increase in sales was a result of plunging prices, which helped get some potential buyers off the sidelines. Also mortgage rates have dropped to very low levels as a result of the low interest rate in the US and government attempts to re-stabilize the housing market. The amount of unsold inventory fell 11.7% to a 9.3 month supply at the current sales pace, down from a 11.2 month supply in November. Still, one month of good data does not mean the US housing sector is out of its malaise, though it does seem that the existing home sales market is faring much better than existing homes and new constructions. New home sales data comes out later this week.  

From the Release: " Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said home prices continue to fall significantly. “It appears some buyers are taking advantage of much lower home prices,” he said. “The higher monthly sales gain and falling inventory are steps in the right direction, but the market is still far from normal balanced conditions. Buyers will continue to have an edge over sellers for the foreseeable future.”

Yun said the market is underperforming and hurting the broader economy. “We’ve added 25 million people to our population over the past decade and housing affordability conditions are the best we’ve seen since 1973, but household formation is much lower than expected,” he said. “Consequently, there is a pent-up demand which could be unleashed with the right stimulus, including a non-repayable home buyer tax credit. The Obama administration and Congress need to move fast to stimulate a spring sales upturn which will help to stabilize home prices and set the foundation for a sustainable economic recovery.”

December
23rd, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
4.49M 4.90M 4.98M N/A
For November
Provided by: National Association of Realtors
Official Release: News Release

Sales m/m: -8.6%, pr. -3.1%, 4.7% (Sep), -2.2% (Aug), 3.1% (Jul),
-2.6% (Jun), 2.0% (May), -1.0% (Apr)
Median Home Price: pr. $183,300, $191,600 (Sep), $203,100 (Aug),
$212,400 (Jul), $215,100 (Jun), $208,600 (May)

From the Release: "Existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – fell 8.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate¹ of 4.49 million units in November from a downwardly revised level of 4.91 million in October, and are 10.6 percent below the 5.02 million-unit pace in November 2007.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, expected a decline. “The quickly deteriorating conditions in the job market, stock market, and consumer confidence in October and November have knocked down home sales to another level. We hope the home sales impact from the stock market crash turns out to be short-lived, as was the case in 1987 and 2001,” he said.

“It is, therefore, imperative to provide incentives for homebuyers to get back into the market. It also depends on how effectively Congress and the new administration can help facilitate the short sales process and unclog the mortgage pipeline – impediments remain for some buyers with good credit,” Yun said.

November
24th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
4.98M 5.05M 5.14M 5.18M
For November
Provided by: National Association of Realtors
Official Release: News Release

Sales m/m: -3.1%, forecast -2.9%, pr. 4.7% (rev from 5.5%, Sep),
-2.2% (Aug), 3.1% (Jul), -2.6% (Jun), 2.0% (May), -1.0% (Apr)
Median Home Price: $183,300, pr. $191,600 (Sep), $203,100 (Aug),
$212,400 (Jul), $215,100 (Jun), $208,600 (May)

From the Release: "Existing-home sales declined on the heels of a strong gain in September as uncertainty and economic concerns increased in October, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – fell 3.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.98 million units in October from a downwardly revised pace of 5.14 million in September, and are 1.6 percent below the 5.06 million-unit level in October 2007.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said consumer hesitation is understandable. “Many potential home buyers appear to have withdrawn from the market due to the stock market collapse and deteriorating economic conditions,” he said. “We have favorable affordability conditions, but we need more than that to give buyers with jobs the confidence they need. This is why a housing stimulus is so critical now to encourage more buyers to draw down the inventory and stabilize home prices. Without home price stabilization, there will not be an economic recovery.”

 

October
24th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
5.18M 4.95M 4.91M N/A
For September
Provided by: National Association of Realtors
Official Release: News Release

Sales m/m: 5.5%, forecast 1.2%, pr. -2.2% (Aug), 3.1% (Jul), -2.6% (Jun),
2.0% (May), -1.0% (Apr)
Median Home Price: $191,600 pr. $203,100 (Aug), $212,400 (Jul),
$215,100 (Jun), $208,600 (May)

Existing-home sales increased last month as buyers responded to improved housing affordability conditions, said the National Association of Realtors. Sales increased 5.5% on the month, to an annual pace of 5.18 million. Inventories were down, and prices continued to fall. They are now 9% lower from a year ago. It seems the take over of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac helped stabilize mortgage rates and brought them down. With lower mortgage rates, lower prices, and lower inventories, the conditions may be there for some kind of bottom to housing, at least in the existing home sector. An interesting note is that almost 80% of purchases were for primary residences, meaning there were less purchases by speculative investors.

From the Release: "NAR President Richard F. Gaylord, a broker with RE/MAX Real Estate Specialists in Long Beach, Calif., said low home prices and low interest rates have been attracting buyers. “This is the first time since November 2005 that home sales have been above year-ago levels,” he said. “Credit tightened at the end of September, but the improvement demonstrates that buyers who’ve been on the sidelines want to get into the market to make a long-term investment in their future.”

According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage fell to 6.04 percent in September from 6.48 percent in August; the rate was 6.38 percent in September 2007.

Total housing inventory at the end of September fell 1.6 percent to 4.27 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 9.9-month supply² at the current sales pace, down from a 10.6-month supply in August. This marks two consecutive monthly declines since inventories peaked in July."

September
24th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
4.91M 4.93M 5.02M 5.00M
For August
Provided by: National Association of Realtors
Official Release: News Release

Sales m/m: -2.2%, pr. 3.1% (Jul), -2.6% (Jun), 2.0% (May), -1.0% (Apr)
Median Home Price: $203,100, pr. $212,400 (Jul), $215,100 (Jun),
$208,600 (May)

From the Release: "Existing-home sales were down in August following a healthy gain in July as tight mortgage credit curtailed activity, according to the National Association of Realtors. Sales rose in the Midwest and South but fell in the Northeast and West.

Nationally, existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops –declined 2.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate1 of 4.91 million units in August from an upwardly revised pace of 5.02 million in July, but are 10.7 percent below the 5.50 million-unit pace in August 2007.

NAR President Richard F. Gaylord, a broker with RE/MAX Real Estate Specialists in Long Beach, Calif., said the pendulum in the mortgage market has swung too far. “The difficulty in obtaining a mortgage increased over past couple months, making it more challenging for creditworthy borrowers to find financing,” he said. “Our hope is that overly tight lending criteria can be loosened with reasonable standards and credit so that sales activity can catch up with demand. Interest rates have already declined, but there is a serious question as to whether a cash infusion by the U.S. Treasury into Wall Street would help consumers by improving mortgage funding."