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Main Indicator: Retail PMI
Most Recent Release
|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 46.2 | 47.7 | N/A | |||
|
For Septermber
Germany: 44.6, pr. 44.1 (Aug), 46.4 (Jul), 44.9 (Jun), 56.6 (May)
From the Release: "The latest Bloomberg Euro-Zone Retail Purchasing Managers' Index
("PMI(R)"), based on a mid-month survey of economic conditions in the euro
area retail sector, fell from 47.7 in August to 46.2 in September,
registering a drop in euro-zone retail sales for the fourth consecutive month
and one of the largest monthly declines recorded since the survey began at
the start of 2004.
The PMI, which provides data one month ahead of government-issued figures
based on interviews with more than 1,000 retail executives in Germany, France
and Italy, indicates a sales slump in September in the face of reduced
consumer purchasing power, falling consumer confidence arising from the
current financial crisis and a further deterioration in the economic outlook.
The downturn in sales rounded off a weak third quarter. Sales fell in Italy and Germany and rose marginally in France."
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Table of Past Data
| 11/7 | 4/27 | 5/30 | 6/28 | 12/28 | 5/29 | 6/27 | 7/30 | 8/28 | 9/29 | ||
| Actual | 52.8 | 54.6 | 48.4 | 46.0 | 53.1 | 44.0 | 46.0 | 47.7 | 46.2 | ||
| Forecast | 52.2 | ||||||||||
| Previous | 52.4 | 53.4 | 54.6 | 48.4 | 45.9 | 41.8 | 53.1 | 44.0 | 46.0 | 47.7 | |
| Revised From | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
Past Releases
|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 47.7 | 46.0 | N/A | |||
|
For August
Germany: 44.1, pr. 46.4, 44.9 (Jun), 56.6 (May), 44.6
(Apr)
From the Release: "The latest Bloomberg Euro-Zone Retail Purchasing Managers' Index
("PMI(R)"), based on a mid-month survey of economic conditions in the euro
area retail sector, indicates a continuing contraction in euro-zone retail
sales for the third consecutive month. While the PMI rose to a three-month
high during August, at 47.7 it remains below the crucial 50.0 no-change mark.
The PMI, which provides data one month ahead of government-issued figures
based on interviews with more than 1,000 retail executives in Germany, France
and Italy, suggests that operating conditions remained tough for retailers at
the height of the summer holiday period. August marked the sixth time in 2008
that sales have fallen. The latest contraction was largely attributed to
continued caution amongst consumers with regard to discretionary spending,
given the uncertain economic outlook and their reduced purchasing power at a
time of continuing inflationary pressures."
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|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 46.0 | 44.0 | N/A | |||
|
For July
Germany: 46.4, pr. 44.9 (Jun), 56.6 (May), 44.6
(Apr)
From the Release: "The latest Bloomberg Eurozone Retail Purchasing Managers' Index
("PMI(R)"), based on a mid-month survey of economic conditions in the euro
area retail sector, rose from 44.0 in June to 46.0 in July. By remaining
below the 50.0 level, the index pointed to a further fall in sales during the
month despite an easing in the rate of decline from the steep pace seen in
June.
The PMI, which provides data one month ahead of government issued figures
based on interviews with more than 1,000 retail executives in Germany, France
and Italy, suggests that retail conditions remained difficult at the start of
the third quarter. The PMI indicates sales falling at a pace broadly similar
to the average recorded over the second quarter -- which had seen the
steepest drop yet recorded for any quarter over the survey history. Retailers
blamed the latest decline in sales on deteriorating consumer confidence,
economic uncertainty and household finances being squeezed by rising energy
costs."
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|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 44.0 | 53.1 | N/A | |||
|
For June
Germany: 44.9, pr. 56.6 (May), 44.6
(Apr)
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|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 53.1 | 41.8 | N/A | |||
|
For May
Germany: 56.6, pr. 44.6
Retail sales activity rose above the 50 boom-bust level in Germany and France, though it remained in contraction in Italy (though the Italian PMI improved from 31.8 to 38.8). The increase was the first in 3 months and was picked up by sales of clothing and food. This is a welcome sign for the ECB which has held rates steady at 4% in order to combat inflation. Confidence among consumers and executives remains near 3 year lows, and the unemployment level increased in Germany. The 2nd quarter is proving to be more difficult for the Euro-zone as a whole as the high value of the Euro, higher inflation, tighter credit, and a global slowdown are all working to slow the European economy's momentum. This latest uptick in retail sales activity may prove to be short lived, as consumer confidence erodes.
From the Release: "The latest Bloomberg Eurozone Retail Purchasing Managers' Index
("PMI(R)") indicates that European retail sales for May rose the most since
April of last year and showed the first increase for three months. The Bloomberg Eurozone PMI, an indicator based on a mid-month survey of
economic conditions in the euro area retail sector and providing data one
month ahead of government issued figures, registered 53.1 in May, a solid
recovery from April's survey low of 41.8. The improvement reflected higher
sales of clothing & footwear, food & drink and household goods, commonly
attributed to better weather compared to April and to the timing of Easter.
Despite the pick-up during May, sales have fallen over the first five
months of the year on average, suggesting that business conditions in the
Eurozone retail sector are generally subdued."
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|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 46.0 | 45.9 | N/A | |||
|
For December. Bloomberg Purchasing Managers Index by NTC Economics Ltd Germany Retail PMI: 44.0, pr. 43.6 France Retail PMI: 49.1, forecast 51.0, pr. 48.8 Italian Retail PMI: 44.7 pr. 45.3 Retail PMI fell for a third month in a row in December. For the 13 countries that share the euro, the seasonally adjusted Retail PMI registered a 46. High inflation is being fueled by rising food and energy prices. This is cutting into consumers spending on retail products, even as unemployment has reached a record low. In a global scale, exporters are being hurt by an appreciating Euro and a slowdown in the US due its housing recession. |
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|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 48.4 | N/A |
|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 48.4 | 54.6 | N/A |
|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 54.6 | 53.4 | N/A |
|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 52.8 | 52.2 | 52.4 | N/A |
















