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Retail PMI
The Retail Purchasing Manufacturing is based on a survey of more than 1,000 executives compiled for Bloomberg LP by NTC Economics Ltd. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the retail sector while a reading below 50 indicators contraction.
  • EUR

Main Indicator: Retail PMI

Most Recent Release

September
29th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
46.2 47.7 N/A

For Septermber
Provided by: PR Newswire
Release: Press Release

Germany: 44.6, pr. 44.1 (Aug), 46.4 (Jul), 44.9 (Jun), 56.6 (May)
France: 50.5, pr. 53.7 (Aug), 51.3 (Jul), 48.7 (Jun), 59.6 (May)
Italy: 42.8, pr. 44.8 (Aug), 38.2 (Jul), 36.3 (Jun), 38.8 (May)

From the Release: "The latest Bloomberg Euro-Zone Retail Purchasing Managers' Index ("PMI(R)"), based on a mid-month survey of economic conditions in the euro area retail sector, fell from 47.7 in August to 46.2 in September, registering a drop in euro-zone retail sales for the fourth consecutive month and one of the largest monthly declines recorded since the survey began at the start of 2004.

The PMI, which provides data one month ahead of government-issued figures based on interviews with more than 1,000 retail executives in Germany, France and Italy, indicates a sales slump in September in the face of reduced consumer purchasing power, falling consumer confidence arising from the current financial crisis and a further deterioration in the economic outlook. The downturn in sales rounded off a weak third quarter. Sales fell in Italy and Germany and rose marginally in France."

Table of Past Data

11/74/275/306/2812/285/296/277/308/289/29
Actual52.854.648.446.053.144.046.047.746.2
Forecast52.2
Previous52.453.454.648.445.941.853.144.046.047.7
Revised FromN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A

Past Releases

August
28th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
47.7 46.0 N/A

For August
Provided by: PR Newswire
Release: Press Release

Germany: 44.1, pr. 46.4, 44.9 (Jun), 56.6 (May), 44.6 (Apr)
France: 53.7, pr. 51.3, 48.7 (Jun), 59.6 (May), 46.2 (Apr)
Italy: 44.8, pr. 38.2, 36.3 (Jun), 38.8 (May), 31.4 (Apr)

From the Release: "The latest Bloomberg Euro-Zone Retail Purchasing Managers' Index ("PMI(R)"), based on a mid-month survey of economic conditions in the euro area retail sector, indicates a continuing contraction in euro-zone retail sales for the third consecutive month. While the PMI rose to a three-month high during August, at 47.7 it remains below the crucial 50.0 no-change mark.

The PMI, which provides data one month ahead of government-issued figures based on interviews with more than 1,000 retail executives in Germany, France and Italy, suggests that operating conditions remained tough for retailers at the height of the summer holiday period. August marked the sixth time in 2008 that sales have fallen. The latest contraction was largely attributed to continued caution amongst consumers with regard to discretionary spending, given the uncertain economic outlook and their reduced purchasing power at a time of continuing inflationary pressures."

 

July
30th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
46.0 44.0 N/A

For July
Provided by: PR Newswire
Release: Press Release

Germany: 46.4, pr. 44.9 (Jun), 56.6 (May), 44.6 (Apr)
France: 51.3, pr. 48.7 (Jun), 59.6 (May), 46.2 (Apr)
Italy: 38.2, pr. 36.3 (Jun), 38.8 (May), 31.4 (Apr)

From the Release: "The latest Bloomberg Eurozone Retail Purchasing Managers' Index ("PMI(R)"), based on a mid-month survey of economic conditions in the euro area retail sector, rose from 44.0 in June to 46.0 in July. By remaining below the 50.0 level, the index pointed to a further fall in sales during the month despite an easing in the rate of decline from the steep pace seen in June.

The PMI, which provides data one month ahead of government issued figures based on interviews with more than 1,000 retail executives in Germany, France and Italy, suggests that retail conditions remained difficult at the start of the third quarter. The PMI indicates sales falling at a pace broadly similar to the average recorded over the second quarter -- which had seen the steepest drop yet recorded for any quarter over the survey history. Retailers blamed the latest decline in sales on deteriorating consumer confidence, economic uncertainty and household finances being squeezed by rising energy costs."

June
27th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
44.0 53.1 N/A

For June
Provided by: PR Newswire
Official Release: Press Release

Germany: 44.9, pr. 56.6 (May), 44.6 (Apr)
France: 48.7, pr. 59.6 (May), 46.2 (Apr)
Italy: 36.3, pr. 38.8 (May), 31.4 (Apr)

A mid-month survey of economic conditions in the euro area retail sector, fell from 53.1 in May to 44.0 in June, marking the second-sharpest sales decline in the survey's four-and-a-half year record. Sales declined in all three of the largest euro countries Germany, France, and Italy. The food and drink sector saw notable sales increase, although it was linked to higher prices. Business optimism is deteriorating and retailers are cutting employment. Companies are also retraining their purchase of goods to a minimum due to the high costs. 

May
29th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
53.1 41.8 N/A

For May
Provided by: PR Newswire
Release: Press Release

Germany: 56.6, pr. 44.6
France: 59.6, forecast 49.5, pr. 46.2
Italy: 38.8. pr. 31.4

Retail sales activity rose above the 50 boom-bust level in Germany and France, though it remained in contraction in Italy (though the Italian PMI improved from 31.8 to 38.8). The increase was the first in 3 months and was picked up by sales of clothing and food. This is a welcome sign for the ECB which has held rates steady at 4% in order to combat inflation. Confidence among consumers and executives remains near 3 year lows, and the unemployment level increased in Germany. The 2nd quarter is proving to be more difficult for the Euro-zone as a whole as the high value of the Euro, higher inflation, tighter credit, and a global slowdown are all working to slow the European economy's momentum. This latest uptick in retail sales activity may prove to be short lived, as consumer confidence erodes. 

From the Release: "The latest Bloomberg Eurozone Retail Purchasing Managers' Index ("PMI(R)") indicates that European retail sales for May rose the most since April of last year and showed the first increase for three months. The Bloomberg Eurozone PMI, an indicator based on a mid-month survey of economic conditions in the euro area retail sector and providing data one month ahead of government issued figures, registered 53.1 in May, a solid recovery from April's survey low of 41.8. The improvement reflected higher sales of clothing & footwear, food & drink and household goods, commonly attributed to better weather compared to April and to the timing of Easter.

Despite the pick-up during May, sales have fallen over the first five months of the year on average, suggesting that business conditions in the Eurozone retail sector are generally subdued."

December
28th, 2007
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
46.0 45.9 N/A
For December.
Bloomberg Purchasing Managers Index by NTC Economics Ltd
Germany Retail PMI: 44.0, pr. 43.6
France Retail PMI: 49.1, forecast 51.0, pr. 48.8
Italian Retail PMI: 44.7 pr. 45.3

Retail PMI fell for a third month in a row in December. For the 13 countries that share the euro, the seasonally adjusted Retail PMI registered a 46. High inflation is being fueled by rising food and energy prices. This is cutting into consumers spending on retail products, even as unemployment has reached a record low. In a global scale, exporters are being hurt by an appreciating Euro and a slowdown in the US due its housing recession.
June
28th, 2007
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
48.4 N/A
May
30th, 2007
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
48.4 54.6 N/A
April
27th, 2007
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
54.6 53.4 N/A
November
7th, 2006
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
52.8 52.2 52.4 N/A

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