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Main Indicator: Factory Orders
Most Recent Release
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -5.1% | -4.0% | -3.1% | -2.5% | ||
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For October
Ex. Transportation: -4.2%, pr. -3.7% (Oct), -3.3% (Sep), 1.0% (Aug)
US factory orders plunged 5.1% in October, the steepest decline in 8 years. Demand for manufacturing goods continues to weaken as consumers shop less and watch their budgets as the economic situation deteriorates. Retailers and wholesalers are therefore putting in less orders to fill inventory, which is showing up at the factory orders level. The US slipped into recession in December of last year and the manufacturing sector has seen a clear deterioration in the sector that has intensified the last two months. Larger capital goods are also weaker as companies see their access to credit drying up and global demand for goods slowing. Orders for durable goods, those designed to last 3 years or more, fell 6.9%, which is a larger fall than the initial estimate of -6.2% put out by the Commerce department last week. Orders for non-durable goods, including food, petroleum and chemicals, fell 3.4%. Lower costs helped to drive down orders for petroleum and coal products by 12%. The data overall is another piece of evidence that the US recession is deepening. |
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Table of Past Data
| 1/3 | 2/4 | 3/5 | 4/2 | 5/2 | 6/3 | 9/3 | 10/2 | 11/4 | 12/4 | ||
| Actual | 1.5% | 2.3% | -2.5% | -1.3% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.3% | -4.0% | -2.5% | -5.1% | |
| Forecast | 0.5% | 2.3% | -2.3% | -0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 1.0% | -2.6% | -1.0% | -4.0% | |
| Previous | 0.7% | 1.7% | 2.3% | -2.3% | -0.9% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 0.7% | -4.3% | -3.1% | |
| Revised From | 0.5% | 1.5% | N/A | -2.5% | -1.3% | 1.3% | 1.7% | N/A | -4.0% | -2.5% | |
Past Releases
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -2.5% | -1.0% | -4.3% | -4.0% | ||
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For September
Ex. Transportation: -3.7%, pr. -3.3% (Sep), 1.0% (Aug), 2.3% (Jun), 0.4% (May)
Factory orders in the US fell 2.5% in September, worse than predicted by forecasts, and follows a dismal 4.3% decline in August. Manufacturing orders outside the transportation sector registered a record decline of 3.7%. The October figures will not be any prettier as the ISM Manufacturing Index hit a 26-year low of 38.9 in October, meaning the tough conditions following the financial crisis of late September-early October filter through to the economy. A yardstick for capital spending by businesses, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, decreased 1.5% in September following a 2.3% fall in August. That means companies are cutting back orders in anticipation of hard times ahead. The transportation sector saw a rebound however, with orders increasing 6.5%, after a fall of 9.4% in August. The Dollar fell today as global markets had another round of gains, and with money-market interest rates coming down as well, there was a bout of risk appetite, that pushed down the Dollar and Yen. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -4.0% | -2.6% | 0.7% | N/A | ||
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For August
Ex. Transportation: -3.3%, pr. 1.0% (Aug), 2.3% (Jun), 0.4% (May)
US factory orders fell 4% in August, more than expected, another signal that US manufacturing and the overall economy is weak. July's positive figure was revised down as well. The broad-based headline drop was the worst since a 4.8% decline in October 2006. Combined with yesterday's dismal ISM manufacturing index it is apparent that the US is hurting in the face of higher credit costs, which only intensified in September. Looking at the data more closely, the non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft fell by 2.4%. These bookings are used to gauge capital spending by businesses and shows companies restraining their spending. Total capital orders fell 6%. Orders in the transportation sector decreased 9.1%. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 1.3% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 1.7% | ||
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For July
Ex. Transportation: 1.0%, pr. 2.3% (Jun), 0.4% (May)
US factory orders climbed more than expected in July, increasing 1.3%. The June figure was revised up as well, to show a 2.1% increase. Durable goods orders, remained unchanged at 1.3% from August 27th's release. Non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft increased 2.5%, after rising by 1.6% in June. Those bookings are seen as a yardstick for capital spending by businesses. Shipments were up 2.1%, while inventories rose a smaller 0.5% which means there is not a buildup of inventories in the factory sector.
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 1.1% | 0.0% | 1.5% | 1.3% | ||
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For April
From the release: Shipments, up three of the last four months, increased $9.6 billion or 2.2 percent to $443.9 billion. This was at the highest level since the series was first stated on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 1.1 percent March increase. Unfilled orders, up twenty-six of the last twenty-seven months, increased $7.3 billion or 0.9 percent to $804.4 billion. This was also at the highest level since the series was first stated on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 1.3 percent March increase. The unfilled orders-to- shipments ratio was 5.29, down from 5.30 in March. Inventories, down slightly following seven consecutive monthly increases, decreased $0.1 billion to $545.7 billion. This followed a 0.9 percent March increase. The inventories-to-shipments ratio was 1.23, down from 1.26 in March.Taking defense and aircraft out, orders gained 4.0%, indicating that businesses are spending again. March saw a 1.0% drop. Durable goods orders however declined 0.6%, while non-durables gained 2.8%. Still, with yesterday's manufacturing PMI improving, albeit still remaining in the contraction side, today's strong factory orders show that demand may be able to hold up for the US economy. This is the new bandwagon, and you will hear a lot about economic recovery in the coming week. The greenback got a lift from Bernanke's statement for dollar-strength earlier today. The factory orders had some impact in further extending the rally. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 1.4% | 0.2% | -0.9% | -1.3% | ||
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For March
Factory orders recovered in March to post a 1.4% increase, and February's decline was revised up. Dissecting the data it is apparent that even though shipments increased, most of the gains came as a result of higher unfilled orders and a build up in inventory. Summary from Release: "New orders for manufactured goods in March, up following two consecutive monthly decreases, increased $5.9 billion or 1.4 percent to $432.3 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 0.9 percent February decrease. Shipments, up two of the last three months, increased $4.9 billion or 1.1 percent to $428.7 billion. This followed a 1.9 percent February decrease. Unfilled orders, up thirty-four of the last thirty-five months, increased $8.9 billion or 1.1 percent to $832.3 billion. This was at the highest level since the series was first stated on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 1.0 percent February increase. The unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio was 5.49, down from 5.50 in February. Inventories, up thirteen of the last fourteen months, increased $5.0 billion or 0.9 percent to $544.3 billion. This was also at the highest level since the series was first stated on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 0.7 percent February increase. The inventories-to-shipments ratio was 1.27, unchanged from February." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -1.3% | -0.8% | -2.3% | -2.5% | ||
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For February
Highlights from US Census Bureau As a proxy for business capital spending, weak orders for manufactured goods now for a second straight month shows that firms are already scaling back activity. The Commerce Department summarizes: New orders for manufactured goods in February, down two consecutive months, decreased $5.7 billion or 1.3 percent to $424.4 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 2.3 percent January decrease. Shipments, down two of the last three months, decreased $9.0 billion or 2.1 percent to $423.0 billion. This followed a 1.1 percent January increase. Unfilled orders, up thirty-three of the last thirty-four months, increased $7.5 billion or 0.9 percent to $822.4 billion. This was also at the highest level since the series was first stated on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 0.8 percent January increase. The unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio was 5.50, up from 5.38 in January. Inventories, up twelve of the last thirteen months, increased $2.8 billion or 0.5 percent to $538.4 billion. This was also at the highest level since the series was first stated on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 1.3 percent January increase. The inventories-to-shipments ratio was 1.27, up from 1.24 in January. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -2.5% | -2.3% | 2.3% | N/A | ||
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For January
Highlights from US Census Bureau Janury factory orders stalled a 4-month growth. New orders plunged 5.1% and whiped out the growth of 4.4% in December. Meanwhile, inventory levels have been piling up. The combination of the direction these two components reiterate the slowdown in manufacturing shown by the PMI. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 2.3% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 1.5% | ||
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For December
"New orders for manufactured goods in December, up six of the last seven months, increased $10.1 billion or 2.3 percent to $441.6 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today." New orders for durable goods increased 5.0%, while shipments for durable goods were down 0.2%. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | ||
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For November. Highlights from US Census Bureau Factory Orders Ex Transportation: 1.4% Factory Orders, Ex Defense: 2.1% New orders for manufactured goods increased 1.5%, to $430.3 billion, reported the US Census Bureau. It was the 5th rise in the last six months, and the results were better than anticipated. The increase in orders was led by a 16% jump in demand at petroleum refiners. Shipments were up 1.5% ($6.2 billion) to $429.4 billion. The report also showed that durable goods, which last week were estimated to have increased 0.1%, instead declined to 0.1%. |
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