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Indicator Digest

Factory Orders
Measures the value of new purchase orders for manufacturing goods, both durable and non-durable. factory orders are a key indicator to the strength of the industrial and manufacturing sectors of an economy.

Main Indicator: Industrial New Orders m/m

Most Recent Release

June
25th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-1.0% 0.0% - 0.2% -0.8%

For April
Provided by: Eurostat
Official Release: PDF

y/y: -35.5%, pr. -26.9% (Mar), -34.2% R (Feb), -34.1% (Jan),
-22.3% (Dec), -26.2% (Nov), -15.1% (Oct), -2.4% (Sep),
-0.7% (Aug), -1.2% (Jul), -0.8% (Jun), -0.6% (May), 4.0% (Apr)

Eurozone industrial new orders fell for a ninth consecutive month in April, unexpectedly falling 1.0% m/m, after an upwardly revised 0.2% m/m decline in March, data from Eurostat showed. Industrial new orders dropped a more-than-expected 35.5% y/y, following March’s upwardly revised 26.5% y/y decrease. Excluding volatile items, April industrial new orders dropped 0.9% m/m and 35.3% y/y.

Table of Past Data

9/2310/2311/2412/221/222/243/274/235/266/25
Actual1.0%-1.2%-3.9%-4.7%-4.5%-5.2%-3.4%-0.6%-0.8%-1.0%
Forecast-0.7%0.3%-3.0%-4.0%-5.0%-5.3%-6.0%-2.4%0.8%0.0%
Previous-0.5%2.0%-1.5%-5.4%-4.7%-5.4%-8.0%-2.0%0.0%- 0.2%
Revised From-0.3%1.0%-1.2%-3.9%N/A-4.5%-5.2%-3.4%-0.6%-0.8%

Past Releases

May
26th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-0.8% 0.8% 0.0% -0.6%

For March
Provided by: Eurostat
Official Release: PDF

y/y: -26.9%, forecast -30.6%, pr. -34.2% R (Feb), -34.1% (Jan),
-22.3% (Dec), -26.2% (Nov), -15.1% (Oct), -2.4% (Sep), -0.7% (Aug),
-1.2% (Jul), -0.8% (Jun), -0.6% (May), 4.0% (Apr)

Euro-zone industrial orders declined for an 8th straight month in March, sliding 0.8% on the month. That undershot expectations of an increase. The annual rate showed orders down 26.9% which was better than forecasts, and slowed the pace of decline compared to January's and February's figures. Though the free fall in orders seems to have stopped, its too early to say that demand has reached a bottom. The first quarter showed Euro-zone growth contracting at the fastest pace in at least 13 years, led by cuts in output and jobs. A rebound in production numbers is a sign to look for in establishing any kind of recovery, though a move to positive orders will have to wait till at least April's release.

April
23rd, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-0.6% -2.4% -2.0% -3.4%

For February
Provided by: Eurostat
Official Release: PDF

y/y: -34.5%, pr. -34.1% (Jan), -22.3% (Dec), -26.2% (Nov), -15.1% (Oct),
-2.4% (Sep), -0.7% (Aug), -1.2% (Jul), -0.8% (Jun), -0.6% (May), 4.0% (Apr)

Euro-zone industrial new orders declined a smaller than expected 0.6% in February, though the annual rate fell a record 34.5%. The indicator began being kept in 1996. Its the seventh straight month that orders were down on the month, as the recession saps demand from home and abroad for factory equipment and metals. With the global recession not abating anytime soon, new orders will continue to remain negative, though the pace of its declines may be slower. The IMF projected a contraction of 4.2% this year for the Euro-zone, which may give the impetus for ECB officials to outline more unconventional tools that they can use to revive the economy. Flash data on the manufacturing sector for the April period showed a better than expected improvement, even thought e sector continued contracting. 

March
27th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-3.4% -6.0% -8.0% -5.2%

For January
Provided by: Eurostat
Official Release: PDF

Ind. Prod. y/y: -34.1%, pr. -22.3% (Dec), -26.2% (Nov), -15.1% (Oct),
-2.4% (Sep), -0.7% (Aug), -1.2% (Jul), -0.8% (Jun), -0.6% (May),
4.0% (Apr)

February
24th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-5.2% -5.3% -5.4% -4.5%

For December
Provided by: Eurostat
Official Release: PDF

Ind. Prod. y/y: -22.3%, pr. -26.2% (Nov), -15.1% (Oct), -2.4% (Sep),
-0.7% (Aug), -1.2% (Jul), -0.8% (Jun), -0.6% (May), 4.0% (Apr)

From the Release: "In December 2008 compared with November 2008, the euro area1 (EA15) industrial new orders index2 fell by 5.2%. In November3 the index decreased by 5.4%. In the EU271 new orders declined by 6.4% in December 2008, after dropping by 5.1% in November3. Excluding ships, railway & aerospace equipment4, for which changes tend to be more volatile, industrial new orders fell by 4.7% in the euro area and by 6.4% in the EU27.

In December 2008 compared with December 2007, industrial new orders decreased by 22.3% in the euro area and by 23.3% in the EU27. Total industry excluding ships, railway & aerospace equipment dropped by 22.1% in the euro area and by 21.2% in the EU27."

January
22nd, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-4.5% -5.0% -4.7% N/A

For November
Provided by: Eurostat
Official Release: PDF

Ind. Prod. y/y: -26.2%, pr. -15.1% (Oct), -2.4% (Sep), -0.7% (Aug),
-1.2% (Jul), -0.8% (Jun), -0.6% (May), 4.0% (Apr)

European industrial orders fell 4.5% in November, as the recession picked up steam and cut into capital spending by companies. On the year orders were down 26.2%, a record decline (records go back 10 years to launch of the Euro). The recession, brought about by the financial turmoil that squeezed off credit last year, is cutting demand at home and abroad. Weak exports to the US and UK overmatched any gains from higher exports to Eastern Europe and China. The ECB cut rates by half a percentage point to 2% last week, in an attempt to lower borrowing costs and with the poor incoming data is set to reduce rates again in March.

December
22nd, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-4.7% -4.0% -5.4% -3.9%

For October - (s.a.)
Provided by: EuroStat
Official Release: PDF

Orders y/y: -15.1%, forecast -9.8%, pr -1.9% (rev from -1.1%, Sep),
-6.6% (Aug), 2.9% (Jul), -7.4% (Jun), -4.4% (May), 12.3 (Apr)

Euro-zone industrial orders plunged in October falling 4.7% on the month, following a downwardly revised 5.4% decline in September. Orders were down 15.1% compared to the same month a year ago. Transportation orders recorded the largest monthly drop of 9.4%, reflecting weakness at European car makers. Orders for machinery and equipment dropped by 6.5%, as companies cut back on capital investment spending.

November
24th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-3.9% -3.0% -1.5% -1.2%

For September - (s.a.)
Provided by: EuroStat
Official Releases: PDF

Orders y/y: -1.1%, forecast -1.5%, pr -6.6% (Aug), 2.9% (Jul),
-7.4% (Jun), -4.4% (May), 12.3 (Apr), -3.7% (Mar)

Industrial new orders fell 3.9% in September, a larger than expected decline, while August's orders were revised down to a -1.5% change. It is a reflection of a weak demand for large capital goods, and means that firms are not investing in large equipment in the face of the global slowdown.  

 

October
23rd, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-1.2% 0.3% 2.0% 1.0%

For August - (s.a.)
Provided by: EuroStat
Official Releases: PDF 

Orders y/y: -6.6%, forecast -0.4%, pr 2.9% (rev from 1.6% - Jul),
-7.4% (Jun), -4.4% (May), 12.3 (Apr), -3.7% (Mar)

Euro-zone industrial new orders fell by 1.2% in August, the third month out of four that orders have been negative. July's figure was revised higher to show a 2% increase. Still, the data for August strongly undershot expectations and shows the problem European companies are having as the global economy slows and domestic demand falters in the face of the credit crisis. The Euro has been sliding though, which may give European exports some advantage in the data for the next couple of months, as this indicator has a 2 month lag. But a better exchange rate may not be able to offset the decrease in demand.

September
23rd, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
1.0% -0.7% -0.5% -0.3%
For July - (s.a.)
Provided by: EuroStat