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Main Indicator: Factory Orders
Most Recent Release
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 1.1% | 0.0% | 1.5% | 1.3% | ||
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For April
From the release: Shipments, up three of the last four months, increased $9.6 billion or 2.2 percent to $443.9 billion. This was at the highest level since the series was first stated on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 1.1 percent March increase. Unfilled orders, up twenty-six of the last twenty-seven months, increased $7.3 billion or 0.9 percent to $804.4 billion. This was also at the highest level since the series was first stated on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 1.3 percent March increase. The unfilled orders-to- shipments ratio was 5.29, down from 5.30 in March. Inventories, down slightly following seven consecutive monthly increases, decreased $0.1 billion to $545.7 billion. This followed a 0.9 percent March increase. The inventories-to-shipments ratio was 1.23, down from 1.26 in March.Taking defense and aircraft out, orders gained 4.0%, indicating that businesses are spending again. March saw a 1.0% drop. Durable goods orders however declined 0.6%, while non-durables gained 2.8%. Still, with yesterday's manufacturing PMI improving, albeit still remaining in the contraction side, today's strong factory orders show that demand may be able to hold up for the US economy. This is the new bandwagon, and you will hear a lot about economic recovery in the coming week. The greenback got a lift from Bernanke's statement for dollar-strength earlier today. The factory orders had some impact in further extending the rally. |
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Table of Past Data
| 8/31 | 10/4 | 11/2 | 12/5 | 1/3 | 2/4 | 3/5 | 4/2 | 5/2 | 6/3 | ||
| Actual | 3.7% | -3.3% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 2.3% | -2.5% | -1.3% | 1.4% | 1.1% | |
| Forecast | 3.3% | -2.4% | -0.5% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 2.3% | -2.3% | -0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| Previous | 1.0% | 3.4% | -3.5% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 2.3% | -2.3% | -0.9% | 1.5% | |
| Revised From | 0.6% | 3.7% | -3.3% | N/A | 0.5% | 1.5% | N/A | -2.5% | -1.3% | 1.3% | |
Past Releases
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 1.4% | 0.2% | -0.9% | -1.3% | ||
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For March
Factory orders recovered in March to post a 1.4% increase, and February's decline was revised up. Dissecting the data it is apparent that even though shipments increased, most of the gains came as a result of higher unfilled orders and a build up in inventory. Summary from Release: "New orders for manufactured goods in March, up following two consecutive monthly decreases, increased $5.9 billion or 1.4 percent to $432.3 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 0.9 percent February decrease. Shipments, up two of the last three months, increased $4.9 billion or 1.1 percent to $428.7 billion. This followed a 1.9 percent February decrease. Unfilled orders, up thirty-four of the last thirty-five months, increased $8.9 billion or 1.1 percent to $832.3 billion. This was at the highest level since the series was first stated on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 1.0 percent February increase. The unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio was 5.49, down from 5.50 in February. Inventories, up thirteen of the last fourteen months, increased $5.0 billion or 0.9 percent to $544.3 billion. This was also at the highest level since the series was first stated on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 0.7 percent February increase. The inventories-to-shipments ratio was 1.27, unchanged from February." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -1.3% | -0.8% | -2.3% | -2.5% | ||
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For February
Highlights from US Census Bureau As a proxy for business capital spending, weak orders for manufactured goods now for a second straight month shows that firms are already scaling back activity. The Commerce Department summarizes: New orders for manufactured goods in February, down two consecutive months, decreased $5.7 billion or 1.3 percent to $424.4 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 2.3 percent January decrease. Shipments, down two of the last three months, decreased $9.0 billion or 2.1 percent to $423.0 billion. This followed a 1.1 percent January increase. Unfilled orders, up thirty-three of the last thirty-four months, increased $7.5 billion or 0.9 percent to $822.4 billion. This was also at the highest level since the series was first stated on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 0.8 percent January increase. The unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio was 5.50, up from 5.38 in January. Inventories, up twelve of the last thirteen months, increased $2.8 billion or 0.5 percent to $538.4 billion. This was also at the highest level since the series was first stated on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 1.3 percent January increase. The inventories-to-shipments ratio was 1.27, up from 1.24 in January. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -2.5% | -2.3% | 2.3% | N/A | ||
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For January
Highlights from US Census Bureau Janury factory orders stalled a 4-month growth. New orders plunged 5.1% and whiped out the growth of 4.4% in December. Meanwhile, inventory levels have been piling up. The combination of the direction these two components reiterate the slowdown in manufacturing shown by the PMI. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 2.3% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 1.5% | ||
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For December
"New orders for manufactured goods in December, up six of the last seven months, increased $10.1 billion or 2.3 percent to $441.6 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today." New orders for durable goods increased 5.0%, while shipments for durable goods were down 0.2%. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | ||
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For November. Highlights from US Census Bureau Factory Orders Ex Transportation: 1.4% Factory Orders, Ex Defense: 2.1% New orders for manufactured goods increased 1.5%, to $430.3 billion, reported the US Census Bureau. It was the 5th rise in the last six months, and the results were better than anticipated. The increase in orders was led by a 16% jump in demand at petroleum refiners. Shipments were up 1.5% ($6.2 billion) to $429.4 billion. The report also showed that durable goods, which last week were estimated to have increased 0.1%, instead declined to 0.1%. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.2% | N/A | ||
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For October US Census Bureau: Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders target New orders for manufactured goods are up 4 of the last 5 months, and added $2.3 billion to a total of $423.5 billion in October. New Orders for durable goods are down three months in a row, and decreased $0.4 billion or 0.2% in October. Shipments of durables rebounded (+0.8%)after two months of decline. Shipments of non-durables reached $208.5 billion after increasing 1.3%, and is the highest level since the start of this record in 1992. Inventories increased slightly by 0.3%, and also reached the highest since 1992. For non-durables stockpiles decreased by 0.3%. Food products led the decrease. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.2% | -0.5% | -3.5% | -3.3% | ||
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September New orders for manufactured goods rebounded from last month's decline making it three of the last four months with increases. Orders were up $0.7 billion to $420.7 billion according to the US Census Bureau. Shipments were down. Unfilled orders were up to the highest level since 1992, and inventories rose as well. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -3.3% | -2.4% | 3.4% | 3.7% | ||
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For August. Orders excl. Transportation: -1.7% Factory Orders fell by the most in seven months during August, a turnaround from July's big increase. Many of the sub gauges that had increases in that month, reversed in August. It seems as if higher credit costs, and a more uncertain outlook in US economic growth has affected the pace of orders. Demand for durable goods fell 4.9%, compared to a rise of 5.9% in July. Non-durable goods orders decreased by 1.6% (+0.6% in July). Capital spending by businesses excl. defense and aircraft also went into negative territory measuring -0.5% compared to July's 0.9% increase in July. Orders in the transportation sector saw a steep turnaround, declining 11.1%, from a rise of 11.7% in July. The implications is that the troubles surrounding the housing sector may be seeping into the broader economy. After gaining on the Euro in early NY trading, the 10AM release caused a 60 pip move against the Dollar in the EUR/USD pair. 
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 3.7% | 3.3% | 1.0% | 0.6% | ||
| Factory Orders in July bested expectations, advancing 3.7%, and June's number was revised up to 1.0%. The bright number wsa led by purchases of goods lasting more than three years - durable goods. Demand in July for durable goods, climbed 6.0%, while they rose 1.8% in June. Non durable goods saw a 1.3% increase in July, after rising 0.2% in June. Non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft - a measure of business investment - rose 1.7%, after decreasing slightly in June. Defense capital goods surged 36.9%, adding .5% to the overall factory orders number. | |||||