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Main Indicator: BRC Shop Price Index y/y
Most Recent Release
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 1.2% | 1.1% | N/A | |||
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For April
Provided by: British Retail Consortium Inflation at retailers increased 1.2% annually on the back of a 4.7% annual increase in food prices. In March, food prices were up 4.1% on the year. On the month, food prices rose 0.7% and offset a 0.2% decrease in non-food prices, and resulting in an overall inflation rate of 0.1% on the month. . The inflation level is actually subdued as retailers continue to offer widespread discounts, trying to ramp up lackluster demand. |
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Table of Past Data
| 9/5 | 10/3 | 11/7 | 12/5 | 1/9 | 2/6 | 3/5 | 4/9 | 5/7 | |||
| Actual | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.2% | ||
| Forecast | |||||||||||
| Previous | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.1% | ||
| Revised From | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | ||
Secondary Indicator: Retail Price Index y/y
Most Recent Release
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 4.2% | 3.9% | 3.8% | N/A | ||
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For April
Retail Price Index m/m: 0.9%, forecast 0.6%, pr. 0.3% The retail price index, which is a measure of the cost of living used in salary negotiations, rose to 4.2% in April, the most since November. Higher fuel and utility bills are cutting into consumer spending, and may lead to workers demanding high wage increase. See the comment for CPI for more analysis. |
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Table of Past Data
| 7/17 | 9/18 | 10/16 | 11/13 | 12/18 | 1/15 | 2/12 | 3/18 | 4/15 | 5/13 | ||
| Actual | 4.4% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.2% | |
| Forecast | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 3.9% | |
| Previous | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 3.8% | |
| Revised From | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
Past Releases
Retail Price Index y/y
|
Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.1% | N/A | ||
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For March
From the Release:
"RPI inflation fell to 3.8 per cent in March, down from 4.1 per cent in
February. The main factors affecting the CPI also affected the RPI.
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 1.1% | 1.3% | N/A | |||
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For March
Provided by: British Retail Consortium Although food prices have seen a sharp rise, the inflationary pressure will not delay BoE's likelihood of cutting rates tomorrow. The BRC's Director General, Stephen Robertson noted that the rising prices comes from the cost-side, and not from a demand pull and thus should leave the table wide open for rate cuts. Year-on-Year: The BRC-Nielsen Shop Price Index (SPI) reports annual shop price inflation of 1.1% in March, marking a twelfth consecutive month of rising annual prices. During the last six months the retail market has experienced relatively steady inflation ranging from 1.0%-1.3% with March proving no exception.
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.1% | N/A | ||
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For February
RPI m/m: 0.8%, forecast 0.8%, pr. -0.5%
Retail prices were affected by the same forces that pushed up consumer prices. Housing provided downward pressure to keep annual inflation from rising in Febrary. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 1.3% | 1.2% | N/A | |||
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For February
Provided by: British Retail Consortium |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.0% | N/A | ||
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For January
RPI m/m: -0.5%, forecast -0.5%, pr. 0.6%
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 1.2% | 1.0% | N/A | |||
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January
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.3% | N/A | ||
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For December. News Summary from Office of National Statistics RPI m/m: 0.6%, forecast 0.6%, pr. 0.4%. RPI inflation slowed compared to the same time last year, with the year-over change falling to 4.0%. For the month retail prices saw an increase to 0.6% from November's 0.4%. Compared to last December, a downward contributor was mortgage payments. Travel and airfare prices increased prices. "Otherwise the main factors influencing the RPI were similar to those affecting the CPI." |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 1.0% | 1.1% | N/A | |||
| For December. | |||||
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.2% | N/A | ||
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For November. Official Release from National Statistics Office The Retail price index increased 4.3% from a year ago, higher than expected, as increasing energy costs, combined with higher food prices added to upward pressure. RPI excluding mortgage interest payments was up 3.2% in November, higher than October's 3.1%. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 1.1% | 1.1% | N/A | |||
| For November. | |||||
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 4.2% | 4.1% | 3.9% | N/A | ||
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For October. Office for National Statistics RPI m/m: 0.4% (Oct), consensus 0.3%, pr. 0.3% (Sept). The Retail Price Index saw its sharpest rise since June in annual terms, increasing 4.2% on the year. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 1.1% | 0.4% | N/A | |||
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For October. Published by British Retail Consortium. BRC Shop Price Index m/m: 0.5%, pr. 0.2% (Sept) The year over year rise in prices to UK shops was measured at 1.1% in October. It is the strongest this year, and mostly led by increase to prices of food (3.7% (Oct), pr. 2.7% (Sept)). Non-food prices fell 0.2%. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.1% | N/A | ||
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September annual rate Flat average mortgage interest payments was a drag to the RPI. On the month the rise was 0.3%, tamer than the 0.6% in August. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.4% | 0.4% | N/A | |||
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For September the annual inflation rate remained the same as August's, as shop prices increased 0.4% y/y. From August, prices increased 0.2% after being flat last month. The increase was led by food prices that grew 0.6% after dropping 0.1%. According to the BRC, ehe cost of fresh produce is rising but the transfer of these price increases have been limited to retailers. As for the effects this has on tomorrow's BoE rate decisions, the BRC figures suggest inflation is not alarming and retailers and consumers would benefit from a rate cut. However, the bank has been very cautious since liquidity crunch and is expected to hold rates. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 4.1% | 4.0% | 3.8% | N/A | ||
| RPI inflation rose in August to 4.1%, up from 3.8% in July. The main catalyst for the increase was an increase in average mortgage interest payments, with lenders passing on July's quarter point increase in the Bank rate, according to the National Statistics Office. | |||||
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.4% | 0.6% | N/A | |||
| The BRC Shop Price Index retreated in August from July's 0.6% y/y. Although overall inflation is tamed, food prices are increasing due to the summer flooding. | |||||
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.3% | N/A | ||
| For the month of June, the RPI posted 0.5% increase after May's 0.4% increase. Inflation in the service sector was 0.3% on the month and 3.7% on the year, while goods inflation was 0.1% on the month and 1.4% on the year. The main upward pressure according the ONS came from mortgage interest payments. | |||||
















