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Indicator Digest

Retail Prices
  • UK

Main Indicator: BRC Shop Price Index y/y

Most Recent Release

March
2nd, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
1.7% 2.3% N/A

For February
Provided by: British Retail Consortium
Official Release: HTML DOC

From teh Rleease: "Overall shop price inflation 1.7% in February. Food inflation slowed to 1.3% in February from 2.9% in January. Non-food inflation was unchanged at 1.9% in February. This is great news for customers. Food inflation is now at its lowest for at least three years – 12 months ago it was seven times higher. This drop has largely been driven by falling fresh food prices, mainly vegetables and fish.

Previous falls in the value of the pound and large commodity price increases, which were pushing up food prices, have now largely worked through. Barring any lasting shocks, the price of food should continue to be relatively stable for some time. The VAT increase is putting pressure on overall shop price inflation but, even so, electricals, home entertainment and clothing are actually cheaper than they were this time last year. Fierce retail competition is protecting customers and keeping inflation down."

Table of Past Data

6/27/78/49/810/611/312/81/52/23/2
Actual1.3%0.7%0.5%-0.1%-0.1%0.0%0.2%2.2%2.3%1.7%
Forecast
Previous1.4%1.3%0.7%0.5%-0.1%-0.1%0.0%0.2%2.2%2.3%
Revised FromN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A

Past Releases

February
2nd, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
2.3% 2.2% N/A

For Janaury
Provided by: British Retail Consortium
Previous Release: HTML DOC

January
5th, 2010
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
2.2% 0.2% N/A

For December
Provided by: British Retail Consortium
Previous Release: HTML DOC

Shop Prices m/m: pr. 0.2% (Nov), 0.0% (Oct), 0.0% (Sept),
0.0% (Aug), -0.1% (Jul), 0.2% (Jun), 0.5% (May), -0.5% (Apr),
0.4% (Mar), 1.2% (Feb), 0.2% (Jan), -2.0% (Dec), 0.2% (Nov)

December
8th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.2% 0.0% N/A

For November
Provided by: British Retail Consortium
Previous Release: HTML DOC

Shop Prices m/m: 0.0% (Oct), 0.0% (Sept), 0.0% (Aug), -0.1% (Jul),
0.2% (Jun), 0.5% (May), -0.5% (Apr), 0.4% (Mar), 1.2% (Feb),
0.2% (Jan), -2.0% (Dec), 0.2% (Nov), -0.1% (Oct), 0.0% (Sep)

November
3rd, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.0% -0.1% N/A

For October
Provided by: British Retail Consortium
Official Release: HTML DOC

Shop Prices m/m: 0.0%, pr. 0.0% (Sep), 0.0% (Aug), -0.1% (Jul),
0.2% (Jun), 0.5% (May), -0.5% (Apr), 0.4% (Mar), 1.2% (Feb),
0.2% (Jan), -2.0% (Dec), 0.2% (Nov), -0.1% (Oct), 0.0% (Sep)

October
6th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-0.1% -0.1% N/A

For September
Provided by: British Retail Consortium
Official Release: HTML DOC

Shop Prices m/m: 0.0%, pr. 0.0% (Aug), -0.1% (Jul), 0.2% (Jun),
0.5% (May), -0.5% (Apr), 0.4% (Mar), 1.2% (Feb), 0.2% (Jan),
-2.0% (Dec), 0.2% (Nov), -0.1% (Oct), 0.0% (Sep), 0.5% (Aug)

From the Release: (BRC Director Stephen Robertson) "More good news for customers. Overall shop prices are down on a year ago for the second month in a row. Prices for non-food goods have been deflationary for ten consecutive months now with clothing, electricals and furniture showing the biggest falls as retailers discount to generate sales.

"Fresh food inflation fell to its lowest level since the index began in 2005 - a dramatic contrast with a year ago. Shop prices for some manufactured foods increased more quickly than last month as big increases in the world prices of sugar and cocoa pushed up costs but this wasn't enough to affect overall shop price inflation. Generally, lower prices are likely to go on helping households in the run up to Christmas."

September
8th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-0.1% 0.5% N/A

For August
Provided by: British Retail Consortium
Previous Release: HTML DOC

Shop Prices m/m: 0.0%, pr. -0.1% (Jul), 0.2% (Jun), 0.5% (May),
-0.5% (Apr), 0.4% (Mar), 1.2% (Feb), 0.2% (Jan), -2.0% (Dec),
0.2% (Nov), -0.1% (Oct), 0.0% (Sep), 0.5% (Aug)

UK shop prices show deflation for the first time since Feb. 2007. Food inflation has been sliding, falling to 2.3%, making it the fifth straight month of slowing down. The BRC'sDirector General, Stephen Robertson notes:

"The fall has been driven by a huge drop in food inflation – which is now less than a quarter of what it was last August. This reduction is largely due to commodity prices, such as oil and wheat, falling since last summer's peak to much lower levels. Non-food goods have now been cheaper than a year ago for nine consecutive months. Electricals, clothing and footwear prices have seen the biggest falls. Falling prices are good news for customers and could give a much-needed boost to retail sales."

August
4th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.5% 0.7% N/A

For July
Provided by: British Retail Consortium
Official Release: HTML DOC

Shop Prices m/m: -0.1%, pr. 0.2% (Jun), 0.5% (May), -0.5% (Apr),
0.4% (Mar), 1.2% (Feb), 0.2% (Jan), -2.0% (Dec), 0.2% (Nov),
-0.1% (Oct), 0.0% (Sep), 0.5% (Aug)

July
7th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
0.7% 1.3% N/A

For June
Provided by: British Retail Consortium
Official Release: DOC

Shop Prices m/m: 0.2%, pr. 0.5% (May), -0.5% (Apr), 0.4% (Mar),
1.2% (Feb), 0.2% (Jan), -2.0% (Dec), 0.2% (Nov), -0.1% (Oct),
0.0% (Sep), 0.5% (Aug)

From the Release: "The BRC-Nielsen Shop Price Index reported annual inflation of 0.7% in June, from 1.3% in May, this marks the third consecutive month inflation has slowed. Overall shop price inflation was driven by food which reported annual inflation of 5.6%, from 6.4% in May. Non-food deflation increased further to 1.9% in June, from 1.3% reported in May."

June
2nd, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
1.3% 1.4% N/A

For May
Provided by: British Retail Consortium
Official Release: DOC

Shop Prices m/m: 0.5%, pr. -0.5% (Apr), 0.4% (Mar), 1.2% (Feb),
0.2% (Jan), -2.0% (Dec), 0.2% (Nov), -0.1% (Oct), 0.0% (Sep), 0.5% (Aug)

From the Release: "In May the BRC-Nielsen Shop Price Index (SPI) reported annual inflation falling to 1.3% from 1.4% in April. This is the second consecutive month that inflation has slowed down. On a month-on-month basis prices increased 0.5% in May after falling 0.5% in April.

Mike Watkins, Senior Manager, Retailer Services, Nielsen comments: "Fresh food inflation has now fallen for a third consecutive month. It appears that the pound's recent depreciation has had most of the effect it's going to on food prices and we are seeing the benefits of lower commodity prices working through to shop prices. With summer approaching, supermarkets are using high levels of promotions on seasonal lines to draw in customers which are also helping keep food prices lower. Non-food prices fell again but more slowly, suggesting that exchange rate depreciation is continuing to influence the prices of many imported non-food products."