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Indicator Digest

Construction

Main Indicator: Construction PMI

Most Recent Release

June
4th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
46.9 36.5 N/A

For May
Provided by: Australian Industry Group
Official Release: PDF

From the Release:

■ "The national construction industry continued to decline in May 2009, although the rate of contraction was the slowest in the past 14 months.
■ This was indicated by a rise of 10.4 points in the seasonally adjusted Australian Industry Group/Housing Industry Association Performance of Construction Index® from 36.5 to 46.9 in May. Nevertheless, this reading remained below the 50 points no-change level, to signal on-going weakness in overall industry conditions.
■ Despite most sectors registering continued falls in activity, the rate of decline moderated for work undertaken on commercial, house, and apartment building projects, while engineering construction activity posted its first increase in the past 10 months, albeit at a marginal pace.
■ Where falls in activity were recorded, this was mainly linked by firms to strong competition for available work, the postponement of projects and low investor confidence. However, helping to moderate the rate of decline in the house builder sector, were reports of an improvement in customer enquiries and sales due to the impact of low interest rates and the First Home Owners Grant.
■ On an aggregate industry basis both activity and new orders posted on-going declines in May, resulting in firms continuing to reduce their workforces although at a less marked rate than the previous month."

Next Release Date: July 06th 2009, 19:30 EST

Table of Past Data

9/410/611/612/41/72/53/54/65/76/4
Actual43.131.836.432.030.934.130.436.546.9
Forecast
Previous41.643.131.836.432.030.934.129.530.436.5
Revised FromN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A

Secondary Indicator: Construction Work Done q/q

Most Recent Release

May
26th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-3.7% -3.0% 2.3% 1.7%
For 1st Quarter
Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics

Table of Past Data

8/2911/282/2711/272/265/278/2611/252/245/26
Actual3.60%-2.10%4.30%2.8%-1.0%2.3%-2.6%4.4%1.7%-3.7%
Forecast1.20%2.00%1.50%1.6%2.0%2.3%1.5%1.5%-1.5%-3.0%
Previous0.20%3.60%-2.10%-1.9%2.2%-0.8%5.0%-2.6%5.5%2.3%
Revised FromN/AN/AN/AN/A2.8%-1.0%2.3%N/A4.4%1.7%

Past Releases

Construction PMI
May
7th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
36.5 30.4 N/A

For April
Provided by: Australian Industry Group
Official Release: PDF

Construction PMI
April
6th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
30.4 29.5 N/A

For March
Provided by: Australian Industry Group
Official Release: HTML PDF

From the Release: "The national construction industry continued to decline in March, reflecting widespread reports of weak market demand and a lack of new project work. The Australian Industry Group - Housing Industry Association Australian Performance of Construction Index (Australian PCI®) stood at 30.4 in March, up by 0.9 points but remaining below the key 50 - points level separating expansion from contraction.  

Australian Industry Group (Ai Group) Associate Director, Economics and Research, Tony Pensabene, said: "The March Australian PCI® results show more evidence of a struggling construction industry as low market demand and tight credit conditions lead to on-going falls in activity.

"However, there is an easing in the pace of the industry's contraction, reflecting slower rates of decline in the house building, apartments and commercial construction sectors. While well away from a meaningful recovery, a notable development has been the considerable easing in the rate of contraction in house building activity since late 2008 on the back of lower interest rates and the increase to the first home owners grant.

"In addition, the sizeable moderation in the level of contraction in apartment building activity in March, follows the recent upturn in approvals for the sector, and may provide an early sign of firmer investor demand, although it is a volatile segment of the building market," Mr Pensabene said."

Construction PMI
March
5th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
34.1 N/A

For February
Provided by: Australian Industry Group

Australia’s construction industry contracted further in February on weak market demand and declining confidence, with the AiG performance of construction index plunging to 29.5 from January’s 34.1, the Australian Industry Group reported.

Construction Work Done q/q
February
24th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
1.7% -1.5% 5.5% 4.4%

For 4th Quarter
Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics

Construction PMI
February
5th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
34.1 30.9 N/A

For January
Provided by: Australian Industry Group

Construction PMI
January
7th, 2009
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
30.9 32.0 N/A

For December
Provided by: Australian Industry Group

Construction PMI
December
4th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
32.0 36.4 N/A

For November
Provided by: Australian Industry Group

Construction Work Done q/q
November
25th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
4.4% 1.5% -2.6% N/A

For 3rd Quarter
Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics

Construction PMI
November
6th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
36.4 31.8 N/A

For Oct.

Provided by: Australian Industry Group

Construction eased for the 8th straight month in Australia although at a slower pace than in September. A construction PMI measured by the Australian Industry Group and Housing Industry Association read 36.4 for October, edging up from the previous month's 31.8. Tight credit conditions are chocking off funding, while weak economic sentiment pulls down demand. Commercial building activity improved slightly, while housing dropped significantly.

Construction PMI
October
6th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
31.8 43.1 N/A
For September
Provided by: Australian Industry Group
Previous Release: PDF
Construction PMI
September
4th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
43.1 41.6 N/A

For August
Provided by: Australian Industry Group
Official Release: PDF

From the Release:

■ "The national construction industry continued to decline in August 2008, although the rate of contraction moderated for a third consecutive month.
■ The seasonally adjusted Australian Industry Group/ Housing Industry Association Performance of Construction Index (Australian PCI®) registered 43.1 in August, to remain below the critical 50.0 points level separating expansion from contraction for a sixth straight month.
■ The decline reflected the impact of weaker house building activity, a further fall in the apartment sector (albeit at a slower rate) and a reduction in work on engineering construction projects. This outweighed an improvement in commercial activity, which expanded for the first time in the past six months.
■ Construction firms overwhelmingly linked the continued reduction in total construction activity to subdued market demand and subsequent declines of new order volumes. There were also reports that economic uncertainty and tight credit conditions had led to further delays in project commencements.
■ On an aggregate industry basis, both activity and new orders posted on-going declines during August, resulting in firms reducing their workforces, although at a less marked rate than in the previous month ."

Construction Work Done q/q
August
26th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-2.6% 1.5% 5.0% 2.3%

For 2nd Quarter
Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics

Construction work done fell in the second quarter to a total value of AU$30.137B from an upwardly revised AU$30.967B, a decline of 2.6%. This headline change is exagerrated because 1st quarter figures were revised up twice as much as first estimated. Still, the numbers were below forecasts of a 1.5% gain. This indicator has been cyclical from quarter to quarter since Q3 2007, going up one quarter only to be followed with a decline. The trend estimate rose 0.7% in the June quarter.Residential building work rose 0.1%, while non-residential fell 0.6%, and the trend estimate for building work done fell 0.2%. the only other component, engingeering work, rose 1.7%, while the seasonally adjusted estimate fell 6.0%.

Australia's housing market has seen some deceleration of growth, but basically avoided the arms of the US subprime meltdown. House prices have been maintained, although home loans are harder to come by because of credit conditions and high borrowing cost. There is somewhat of a contraction in the housing market, but it is not alarming.

Construction Work Done q/q
May
27th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
2.3% 2.3% -0.8% -1.0%

For 1st Quarter
Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics

Construction activity in Australia rebounded in the March quarter, indicating steady growth in the sector, particularly engineering. The 2.3% rise helped offset the revised 0.8% decline for the December quarter.The number means that construction should be a positive for GDP figures set to come out next Wednesday. As some sectors of the economy lose steam, it seems that construction work which totaled A$16.45 billion, seasonally adjusted, is one sector that continues to grow. 

Construction Work Done q/q
February
26th, 2008
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-1.0% 2.0% 2.2% 2.8%

For 4th Quarter
Provided by: Australian Bureau of Statistics

Consturction spending turned negative in the 4th quarter. 

Construction Work Done q/q
November
27th, 2007
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
2.8% 1.6% -1.9% N/A
For 3rd Quarter.
Construction Work Done q/q
February
27th, 2007
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
4.30% 1.50% -2.10% N/A
Construction Work Done q/q
November
28th, 2006
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
-2.10% 2.00% 3.60% N/A
Construction Work Done q/q
August
29th, 2006
Actual Forecast Previous Revised Form
3.60% 1.20% 0.20% N/A