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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | N/A | ||
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For January
Core CPI m/m: -0.1%, forecast 0.1%, pr. 0.1% (Dec), 0.0% (Nov),
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| 5/15 | 6/17 | 7/15 | 8/14 | 9/16 | 10/15 | 11/18 | 12/16 | 1/15 | 2/19 | ||
| Actual | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| Forecast | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| Previous | -0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| Revised From | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| -0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | N/A |
| 5/15 | 6/17 | 7/15 | 8/14 | 9/16 | 10/15 | 11/18 | 12/16 | 1/15 | 2/19 | ||
| Actual | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | -0.1% | |
| Forecast | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| Previous | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | |
| Revised From | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | N/A | ||
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For December
CPI y/y: 2.7%, pr. 1.8% (Nov), -0.2% (Oct), -1.3% (Sep),
Consumer prices continued to rise at a tepid pace in December, inching up 0.1% on the month, which followed a 0.4% increase in November. The data indicates that the soft economic recovery is keeping a lid on price pressures. The core-CPI which strips out the effects of energy and food prices, was up 0.1% as well after a flat reading in November. Compared to December 2008, prices were 2.7% higher, but that was skewed due to a steep fall in energy prices at the end of '08. Overall today's report shows inflation soft enough that the Fed can continue to try and support the recovery by keeping short-term interest rates near zero. The Fed has signaled that as long as core inflation and inflation expectations remain low and unemployment stays high, the fed funds rate won't be raised from a record low. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | N/A |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | N/A | ||
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For November
CPI y/y: 1.8%, pr. -0.2% (Oct), -1.3% (Sep), -1.5% (Aug),
US consumer prices rose in line with expectations in November, with the headline monthly rate up 0.4% following a 0.3% increase in October. Core prices, which exclude food and energy costs remained unchanged from a month ago, the first time core prices did not rise in 10 months. The logical conclusion is that the gain in prices comes from those volatile items. Energy costs were up 4.1%, after climbing 1.5% in October, while food prices rose only 0.1%. We saw a big surge in energy costs in producer prices on the back of higher gasoline and energy costs as well. Therefore today's report may be seen as an increase due to seasonal fluctuation driven primarily energy prices The annual consumer inflation rate rose to 1.8%, the first positive annual reading all year, as some sharp drops in consumer prices from last year were taken out of the equation. The core annual rate remained steady at 1.7%. The FOMC will be concluding its interest rate meeting and we will see how the committee sees inflation pressures shaping up. With the weak labor market wage growth has been stagnant and while consumer spending has picked up somewhat since the economy exited the recession, overall final demand is still rather soft, which should keep a lid on core consumer inflation. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | N/A |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | N/A | ||
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For October
CPI y/y: -0.2%, forecast -0.3%, pr. -1.3% (Sep), -1.5% (Aug),
US consumer prices were up 0.3% in October, a figure that was slightly higher than expected, though the annual rate remained negative at -0.2%. That is the 8th straight month that annual prices were down. Still, the core monthly rate was up 0.2%, which pushed the core annual rate to 1.7%, the third straight month of acceleration in underlying prices. The core annual rate remains below 2% which is the rate that the Fed "targets." Fed Chairman Bernanke has said that the FOMC will keep interest rates at their near-zero level for an "extended period" as long as there is high unemployment and low inflation. Currently inflation remains subdued, though waiting too long to act on inflation could put the Fed in a place where it may have to catch up to rising inflation. Factors to be concerned about include rising commodity prices and a weakening dollar. However, there is still considerable slack in the economy and low labor costs which, according to Bernanke, should keep prices in check. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | N/A |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | N/A | ||
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For September
Core CPI m/m: 0.2%, pr. 0.1% (Aug), 0.1% (Jul), 0.2% (Jun),
US consumer prices rose by 0.2% in September, a figure that matched forecasts and is a slower pace than in August. Food prices and energy prices moderated indicating that weak economic activity is helping to keep inflation pressures down. The core rate which excludes volatile items like food and energy rose 0.2%, a pick up compared to the previous two months. Overall, today's report underscores that inflation has not yet become a problem for the economy and the Federal Reserve has leeway to keep rates low. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | N/A |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | N/A | ||
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For August
Provided by: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Core CPI m/m: 0.1%, pr. 0.1% (Jul), 0.2% (Jun), 0.1% (May),
CPI y/y: -1.5%, pr. -2.1% (Jul), -1.4% (Jun), -1.3% (May),
US consumer prices rose 0.4% on a monthly basis in August, led by higher energy prices which were up 4.6% in August from July. On the year, energy costs are actually down 23%, which was a major factor in the 1.5% decline in annual consumer prices. The core monthly rate was up 0.1%, which matched expectations. The data shows that underlying inflation remains rather soft and should not pressure the Fed into feeling the need to change its timetable for raising rates. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | N/A |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.7% | N/A | ||
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For July
Provided by: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Core CPI m/m: 0.1%, forecast 0.1%, pr. 0.2% (Jun), 0.1% (May),
CPI y/y: -2.1%, forecast -1.9%, pr. -1.4% (Jun), -1.3% (May),
Consumer prices were flat in July following a surge of 0.7% in June. On the year, prices were down 2.1%, the largest annual decline since 1950. Excluding food and energy costs, prices rose 0.1%, which means energy costs actually contributed to a decrease in inflation. Energy costs decreased 0.4%, with gasoline prices down 0.8%, while food costs were down 0.3%. The threat of inflation from the massive injections into the banking system conducted by the Fed have so far not materialized as the economy remains weak and stores offer discounts to lure shoppers. The core annual rate dipped to 1.5% showing strong slack in underlying prices. That could give the Fed the leeway it needs to keep rates low for an extended time as the economy starts recovering. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | N/A |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | N/A | ||
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For June
Provided by: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Core CPI m/m: 0.2%, pr. 0.1% (May), 0.3% (Apr), 0.2% (Mar),
US consumer prices rose 0.7% in June, a figure that was mostly expected, though it was slightly higher that the forecast of 0.6%. However, on an annual basis prices continued falling, sliding 1.4%, the largest drop since 1950. Core prices, which exclude energy and food, were up 0.2% on the month and 1.7% on the year. Prices rising on the month were not enough to move the annual figures away from their declining trend, which means the risk of inflation is not enough to move the Fed from their near-zero interest rate policy. Still, the monthly figures also deflect some of the worries over deflation as we have now seen a sixth straight month of positive readings in the core rate. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | N/A |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | N/A | ||
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For May
Provided by: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Core CPI m/m: 0.1%, forecast 0.3%, pr. 0.3% (Apr), 0.2% (Mar),
Consumer inflation was up 0.1% on the month in May, but fell 1.3% on the year, which is the biggest annual drop in almost 60 years. Companies are unable to raise costs as consumer demand is still low. Though there are signs that the economy may be stabilizing there is still a high degree of unemployment. The data suggests that inflation will remain subdued this year, and lower inflation figures could mean the Fed is not going to be able to raise rates anytime soon. That news will pressure the Dollar, as some have speculated that signs of a faster than expected recovery may prompt the central bank to go ahead and raise rates. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | N/A |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.1% | N/A | ||
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For April
Provided by: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Core CPI m/m: 0.3%, forecast 0.1%, pr. 0.2% (Mar), 0.2% (Feb), 0.2% (Jan),
Consumer inflation was flat in April though the core rate surprised forecasts climbing 0.3% (though a large portion of that increase was a 9.3% increase in tobacco prices). Energy costs were down 2.4%, led by declines in gasoline and natural gas prices, while food prices fell 0.2%. That's surprising considering producer prices rose on the back of higher food costs. Compared to a year ago, headline prices fell 0.7%, the biggest decline since 1955. However, just as in the monthly figures, the core rate increased to 1.9% compared to the 1.8% seen in March. Companies and stores are going to have to keep prices low in order to attract consumers that are still not ready to start spending, as they worry about a very loose labor market. |
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Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised Form | |
| 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | N/A |